Cook Out Southern 500 Preview Article (x2)

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Cook Out Southern 500 Preview and Best Bet

Blurb: The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs begin on Sunday. Here is betting advice for this first playoff race.

Meta: Cook Out Southern 500 stats, analysis, predictions, previews. Click here for our free NASCAR betting picks!

Top Sportsbooks have released their odds for the upcoming NASCAR Cup Series race that takes place in Darlington, South Carolina.

Last week was the final race of the regular season. This week is the first race of the playoffs.

Here is all of the information that you'll want to know for this first race of the playoffs as well as all the analysis that you'll require to make at least one informed bet on this race.

NASCAR Cup Series: Cook Out Southern 500
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 6 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina

Welcome to the Playoffs

This upcoming race in Darlington is important because it marks the beginning of NASCAR's Cup Series playoffs.

Last race established exactly which 16 drivers will participate in the playoffs.

The next 10 races will determine who this year's champion will be.

There are four rounds, each consisting in three races. This upcoming race is the first race of the Round of 16.

Drivers will try to advance to the next round by winning a race or possessing enough points at the end of the round to move on instead of drivers who haven't won a race or who possess fewer points.

Race Info

For Sunday's racing competition, drivers must complete a total of 367 laps.

As has been the case for almost every race this season, there are three stages for this event.

Stage 1 requires drivers to complete 115 laps. Stage 2 finishes upon the completion of lap 230. Stage 3 requires 107 more laps.

An entry list is always published early in the week for an upcoming racing event.

After Tyler Reddick in last week's race outdueled Auston DIllon and received some help from Ryan Blaney, we know who the 16 drivers in this field will be. In total, 37 drivers are listed on the current entry list as participants for this race.

There will not be practice or qualifying for this event since drivers are already familiar with this track.

A predetermined formula will, like usual, establish who starts in what position. The lineup gets released on Wednesday morning for the coming race.

Track Info

Darlington Raceway is more than a track that has a lot of nicknames.

One calls it "Lady in Black" partly in reference to the history of its pavement, but also in reference to the difficulty of the track.

More explicitly, Darlington Raceway is also called "The Track Too Tough to Tame."

It is a notoriously difficult track to race on largely due to its egg shape.

In its construction, it was conceived as a track on which drivers would compete at significantly lower speeds than they currently race at.

The structure of Darlington's raceway encourages a dangerous racing atmosphere at current speeds.

Moreover, the track is famous for being very narrow. Drivers easily scrape the wall, in which case he receivers a "Darlington Stripe."

Each lap in Darlington is 1.366 miles. So, in completing 367 laps, drivers will have completed just over 500 miles.

One thing that encourages higher speeds at this track is the very fair amount of banking.

Turns 1 and 2 are banked at 25 degrees. Turns 3 and 4 are banked at 23 degrees. The front and back straightaways are banked at three and two degrees, respectively.

Drivers to Avoid

It takes a special amount of skill for drivers to navigate this notoriously tough track.

Some drivers lack the proven comfort at this track.

Avoid relying on Ryan Blaney, for example.

You might be tempted to invest in him because his last performance was strong and recency bias is a powerful phenomenon.

However, you need to take a step back and realize that he has never finished higher than eighth at this track.

In nine attempts at Darlington, he has finished outside the top 20 four times. HIs average finishing position here is 19, which is 7.1 spots worse than his average starting position.

Also avoid trusting Joey Logano as there are much better drivers out there. He has zero career wins at this track.

My Guy

There are other drivers who have won here, but are hit-or-miss. What I like about Kyle Larson is his consistent success at this track.

Consistency is a great source of reliability. He has finished top-three in each of his last three races at this track.

As he is very fast this season, he is in a great spot to finally win at Darlington.

On May 9, he finished second after starting 14th. Better starting position would certainly help him on this narrow track.

Best Bet: Larson to Win at +350 with Bovada
 
Cook Out Southern 500 Odds and Expert Picks

NASCAR Cup Series: Cook Out Southern 500
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 6 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina

The Playoffs Begin

This upcoming race in Darlington is a special one because it is the first playoff race of the season.

Last race was the final race of the regular season. With there being the 16th and final spot up for grabs, this race established which 16 drivers will participate in the playoffs.

There will be 10 playoff races starting with Sunday's. The next 10 races, including this upcoming one, will determine who this year's champion will be.

For the playoffs, there are four rounds. Each round consists in three races. Sunday's race is the first race of the Round of 16 of the playoffs.

There are two ways in which drivers may advance to the next round of the playoffs. They may either have enough points after three rounds or they may win one of the three races in the round. So far, nobody has advanced.

Race Info

Drivers must complete 367 laps for Sunday's racing competition.

As has normally been the reality, this event has three stages.

Stage 1 mandates drivers to complete 115 laps. Stage 2 finishes upon the completion of lap 230. Stage 3 consists in 107 more laps.

An entry list is always published early in the week for an upcoming racing event. In total, 37 drivers are listed on the current entry list as participants for this race.

Obviously, some of these drivers are not playoff competitors. Last week, Tyler Reddick beat out teammate Austin Dillon for the final spot, in part because he received help from Ryan Blaney. With Reddick in the playoffs, we know who the 16 playoff drivers will be.

Drivers are historically very familiar with Darlington. Therefore, there will not be any practice or qualifying round for this upcoming race -- there is no need for it as there was in Austin, for example.

Like usual, a predetermined formula will establish the order of the starting lineup. The lineup conventionally is released on Wednesday morning for the next race.


Track Info

Darlington Raceway is famous for a lot of reasons, a lot of reasons which make racing here an unusually redoubtable experience for even experienced NASCAR competitors.

One nickname for this track is "Lady in Black." This nickname refers to the history of its pavement, but also to the difficulty of competing on this track.

More immediately telling is the nickname "The Track Too Tough to Tame."

One reason why racing here is so difficult is its egg shape.

As it was constructed, it was designed and thought of as a track that could only handle very limited speeds, speeds that are wholly unrealistic for today's faster brand of NASCAR racing.

Hence, Darlington Raceway's structure promises a rather dangerous race setting at current speeds.

Moreover, the track is well-known for being uniquely narrow. Because they have a tough time passing, drivers normally scrape the wall.

When a driver scrapes a wall, he receives a "Darlington Stripe" on the side of his vehicle.

Each lap in Darlington requires 1.366 miles. So, in completing 367 laps, drivers will have accumulated just over 500 miles.

One factor that facilitates higher speeds at this track is the nice amount of banking.

Turns 1 and 2 are banked at 25 degrees and turns 3 and 4 at 23 degrees. The front and back straightaways are banked at three and two degrees, respectively.

Drivers to Avoid

Know for your Best Bets that drivers require a special degree of skill and comfort in tough conditions in order to thrive or even survive on this notoriously tough track.

Some drivers lack the history at this track that would justify relying on them in any form to do well here.

For example, do not trust Ryan Blaney.

It might be tempting to invest in him at least in match-up betting because of recency bias. We tend to overemphasize what we most recently saw and his last performance was a strong one.

However, with your Sports Betting in mind, be sure to take a step back and survey all of this with a broader perspective.

In Blaney's case, realize that he has never finished higher than eighth at this track.

In nine attempts at Darlington, Blaney has finished outside the top 20 nearly half of the time.

His average finishing position here is 19, which is 7.1 spots worse than his average starting position. So, his struggles here are not a matter of starting position.

Also avoid investing in Joey Logano as there are much better drivers out there. He has never won at this track.Keep this in mind for the match-up betting opportunities that you can locate at an Online Sports Betting Site.

My Guy

There are other drivers who have more positive track records here, but lack any consistency.

One thing I like about Kyle Larson is his consistent comfort shown at this track.

Consistency makes a person reliable. In each of his last three races here, Larson has finished top-three.

As he is very fast this season in his dominance of the regular season, he is in a great position competitively to finally get a win at Darlington.

On May 9, his most recent race here, he finished second after starting 14th.

One could only expect better starting position to improve his chances.

Best Bet: Larson to Win at +350 with Bovada
 
I made a couple of small bets in the Xfinity race today:

Allgaier -105 over Gragson (medium)
Brandon Jones +1800 to win (small)
 
I bet Truex to win the Southern 500 yesterday when I made my two losing Xfinity bets. He was +600 at the time and is between +500 and +525 now. They sell out for these 750 hp tracks.
 
I am having a hard time finding any matchups this week. I wanted to bet on some of the Toyota teams (Truex, Bell, Hamlin, and Kyle), but they are matched up against each other or Larson on DK. Bell is matched up against Reddick (RCR), but I kinda like Reddick too.

I also wanted to bet on Almirola, but DK has him against Dillon (RCR) who does well at Darlington.

I also wanted to fade Blaney, but DK has him matched up against Kurt Busch, who is not as strong in the 750 hp package.

I am waiting to see who BM will have for their matchups.

I did bet Almirola +280 Top 10.
 
I played Hamlin +105 over Kyle Busch.

Hamlin had a bad week away from the track this week. Hasn't won all year, but should've won the X race yesterday but a crewmember penalty late derailed that.
 
I played Hamlin +105 over Kyle Busch.

Hamlin had a bad week away from the track this week. Hasn't won all year, but should've won the X race yesterday but a crewmember penalty late derailed that.
Yeah, was it a distraction or will the race give him a place away from everything and motivate him more. It sure seemed like he was happy to be in the car yesterday.
 
Yeah, was it a distraction or will the race give him a place away from everything and motivate him more. It sure seemed like he was happy to be in the car yesterday.
Exactly. Plus he got a good feel for the track and that crap that is on turn 2.
 
I see that Dillon may have to go to the rear, so I bet Almirola -105 over Dillon

I have Truex to win at +600
Almirola -105 over Dillon
Almirola Top 10 +280

Of course, Almirola will wreck sometime in the first stage.
 
I am snakebit. I do not know why Almirola did not take the wave around. He went from around 10th to 1 lap down and in 18th and behind Dillon.
 
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