E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
I like the non-BCS conferences, what can I say. First the WAC, now this, MWC and Sun Belt previews to follow!
First a few things about this conference. I didn't personally get a chance to watch a whole lot of C-USA games last yr, I did bet my share (mostly Houston, Tulsa, and SoMiss) but when it came to the bowl games, as a conference, they got whacked hard. Nothing sits fresher in my mind than that Troy beat down of Rice and after analyzing that game, the biggest difference was speed, which Rice had none of. Tulsa was taken down by Utah, ECU was dominated by USF, Houston put up a nice fight with SC, and SoMiss got their lone win over Ohio.
First a few things about this conference. I didn't personally get a chance to watch a whole lot of C-USA games last yr, I did bet my share (mostly Houston, Tulsa, and SoMiss) but when it came to the bowl games, as a conference, they got whacked hard. Nothing sits fresher in my mind than that Troy beat down of Rice and after analyzing that game, the biggest difference was speed, which Rice had none of. Tulsa was taken down by Utah, ECU was dominated by USF, Houston put up a nice fight with SC, and SoMiss got their lone win over Ohio.
--------------C-USA West Division---------------
Houston (10-4):
The defending C-USA champs will have to rebound after losing Kevin Kolb to the Eagles in this years draft. The important thing to note, and I tip my hat to Kolb who had a damn good career, is that Kolb was a four yr starter. Replacing his type of production and efficiency will not happen this yr for sure. Houston was a very tough team to get a read on and it seems like if you look back at last yr, as a team they did not have a short memory. This is a team who started off 4-0, just beat Oklahoma St and than went to play a game at Miami where they lost 14-13 and the middle of the season tanked. You get the feeling for an undefeated team from C-USA to come so close to beating a big name program like Miami that there would be letdown. The next week at home they lose to Sunbelt superpower ULL (joke) followed by a tough loss at So Miss by 4 points. A 4-0 season suddenly became a 4-3 season and it was time for Houston to regroup, which they did. They went on to win their next 6 games including the C-USA championship over SoMiss by 14points. During the bowl game, which I have watched more than 4 times, the thing that impressed me about Houston was their team speed. They had players faster than the players on So Carolina, particularly at WR. HC Briles is also a pretty smart head coach and has some good play calling. This yr on offense Houston returns 6 starters. The biggest loss of course is Kolb. Replacing Kolb won't be easy and will affect the overall effectiveness of this offense. Since no other QB sniffed the field last yr, there is no experience here. Currently Blake Joseph, a sophmore, is set to battle Case Keenum who is only a R-Frosh. At running back, converted WR, Anthony Alridge will be the leading ball carrier this yr. Jackie Battle was their between the tackle bruiser and Alridge used his speed on the outside but Battle is now gone. Alridge did lead the team in yards with 965 on only 95 carries, pretty sick numbers and almost impossible to duplicate. The question is, can he take a pounding of 20-25 carries a game? He should be dangerous in open space since he can catch the ball though. At WR, they should be fairly strong with the return of Donnie Avery and Jeron Harvey. Harvey is a big WR at 6'5 and Avery can flat out run. They did lose their leading receiver in Vincent Marshall but they are still a solid bunch. On the line they should be talented and one of the strongest units in C-USA. They return 3 starters from last yr's group, four of the scheduled starters have starting experience, and they have depth from some JUCO transfers. This is very important as Houston will be fresh at QB, at least there is a pretty good indication he will have some time to throw. On defense as a unit they return 7 starters and 22 of their top 27 tacklers. They run a 3-4 scheme and return 4 of their top 6 on the DL. They also added a transfer from Auburn and JUCO player as well. The LB corps return 7 of their top 8 but did lose 1st Tm CUSA player in Wade Koehl. This position should be very experienced and also should be one of the top units in C-USA. The DB position lost both a 2nd TM CUSA player and a 1ST Tm CUSA player but do return 3 full time starters back and 5 players who have made 3 or more starts last yr. Overall as a defense which will be in its 3rd yr of the 3-4 scheme, they should continue to improve. They were from 32.2 points/game in 2004 to 27 points/game in 2005 to 23.5 points/game in 2006. My final conclusion about this team is that they will be strong on both sides of the ball, provided they get some decent QB play. The defense should be able to keep them in the games while the OL should be able to protect the QB, and the running game should be the constant force that the offense needs. I don't think they can match last yr's average of 33 points/game but they won't fall that far behind. I think very highly of Briles and his offense. The OOC schedule features a game at Oregon opening week, a home game vs. Colorodo St, a game at Bama, and a home game vs. Texas Southern. The overall schedule is not too difficult if you take out the 2 OOC games @ Oregon and @ Bama which are likely losses.
Tulsa (8-5):
Here is a team who played pretty solid football last yr in the beginning of the yr but pretty much blew 3 conference games in a row at the end of the season to lose their lead in the West division and failed to make a run for the championship game. Tulsa dropped consecutive games to Houston, Rice, and SMU. This yr they will welcome a new HC, Todd Graham, who was DC under Kragthorpe for 3 yrs prior to last yr where he took the HC job at Rice. He now returns back to Tulsa with OC Gus Malzhan, former Arkansas OC and successful HS coach. The offense only returns 4 starters, one being very important in Senior QB Paul Smith. Smith was effective as a QB last yr completing 66.6% of his passes for 2727yards and had a 15-9 TD-Int ratio. Smith also ran for 390 yards. RB Courtney Tennial is back and was their leading rusher last yr with 862yards on 171 attempts. The positions that lack experience are the WR and OL positions. At WR they lost their top two leading receivers and 3 of their top 4. The leading receiver coming back had just 362yards last yr on 31 catches and 1 TD. On the line they have been hit hard. They lose 2nd Team CUSA center, 2nd Team CUSA left guard, 1st Team CUSA right tackle, and a left tackle with 13starts. They return just 1 starter on the OL from last yr's team. The losses on the OL could be pretty devastating to an offense who averaged 27.7 points/game. They will welcome a new scheme on offense it will take some time to gel as a unit and build chemistry. They are lacking depth so much that they moved DT Walter Boyd to the offensive side of things. On defense they return 6 starters and 5 of their top 10 tacklers. The defensive scheme is a 3-3-5 and that will stay the same despite the HC changes. The DL lost their top two guys from 2006 and their 2 top backups but they do have 2 players with starting experience. The LB corps returns the teams leading tackler in Nelson Coleman but loses C-USA defensive player of the yr in Nick Bunting as well as their #3 tackler on the team Kedrick Alexander. The DB position returns 2 of their 5 from last yr, have some quality backups but overall they will be inexperienced. Their OOC schedule begins with a game at ULM, a bye week prior to a home game vs. BYU, then they welcome Oklahoma, and later in the yr will play Army. My take on this team is that both the offensive production and the defensive effectiveness from last yr should slide. The losses on the OL for Tulsa are serious as they lost a lot of ALL-CUSA players. The losses at LB and the DL will also hurt the defense which averaged giving up 20.2 points/game. The opening game at ULM might be a little tougher than they expect, the OOC games to BYU and Oklahoma are losses but overall the road schedule is not that tough with games at UTEP, UCF, Tulane, Army, and Rice. This could be a team who might not be too good vs. the spread as favorites.
UTEP (5-7):
Going into 06', UTEP was a team who was suppose to battle Houston for the division, they had 29 seniors, and preseason #1 offense in the conference. UTEP finished 5-7 which is underachieving at its best. Lets start with the offense where Jordan Palmer is now gone and despite throwing INT's in key situations last yr, he had a pretty decent yr (3595yds, 65.7%, 26-14 TD-INT). They must start fresh at QB this yr which will be a battle between red shirt frosh Trevor Vittatoe and sophomore Brandis Dew who is recovering from shoulder surgery and could move to defense. At RB, the production will need to get better, there is no other word for it when they averaged 58yards rushing/game. I must add that it came on an average of 18 attempts. They have their leading rusher back who had 565yards on the yr on 156 attempts. At WR they lose 3 of their top 4 in terms of yards/receptions but do welcome Fred Rouse, former FSU player and prep star. Lorne Sam is also expected to lineup at WR, he is a converted QB and another FSU transfer. The bottom line here is that Rouse and Sam are more than capable of reproducing last years production at WR, they just need a QB to get them the ball. On the OL they return all 5 starters and 8 players who started in games last yr, there is no where for this group to go but up. There certainly is talent on the offense with the FSU transfers being more talented than other players in C-USA but they must must must improve their running game. Returning the whole offensive line will go a long ways to improving that. On defense they return 4 starters and must must replace their whole DL. That is four new starters on the DL expected to be mostly sophomores and juniors. The LB position should be stronger than last years group, it is experienced, and it will welcome some new faces as well. This is the strongest position on the defense and maybe the team but they will need the DL to be effective so they don't have men in their face all game. At DB they return 2 of 4 from last years secondary including Quintin Demps, 1st TM CUSA and led the confernce in INT's. The OOC schedule features an opening game at home vs. New Mexico who beat them last yr, a trip to Texas Tech, a game at NMST, and a home game vs. Texas Southern. They have a pretty easy road schedule outside of the OOC games with trips to SMU, Rice, Tulane and UCF. Overall, the offensive line should improve so in turn the running game should improve. There is talent at WR with the transfers, just have to get them the ball. On defense, they were weak against the run last yr and I can't seeing that changing to much with 4 new faces on the DL. The LB corps is solid but they can't make every tackle. Just want to wish HC Pierce good health, knew he had heart surgery a little bit ago. Hope he has a speedy recovery.
SMU (6-6):
Here is a team who did a little bit of surprising of their own behind a true frosh QB in Justin Willis. They were 5-1 at home and lost on the road to Texas Tech, North Texas, UTEP, ECU, and Rice. Willis is a talent and will only get better with more experience. It is important to note that under HC Bennett, SMU is just 4-25 away compared to 13-16 at home. On the yr Willis completed 67.2% for 2047yards and had a 26-6 TD-Int ratio. He also picked up nearly 600yards on the ground. It was a pleasant surprise to see a true frosh play with so much confidence and poise. At RB, the Mustangs return their two leading rushers however, neither one broke 400yards last yr. DeMyron Martin (394yds on 92att) and James Mapp (352yds on 69att) both will need to pick the production up. At WR, SMU returns 2 of their top 3 but did lose a decent amount of depth at this position. They have moved a CB, Devin Lowery (4.37 speed) to WR to compensate for the losses. Overall production at this position should improve as they gain more experience and Willis gets more comfortable at the helm. There is a ton of speed out wide for SMU, it is just a matter of catching the ball and running good routes. The OL is going to be very strong for SMU as they return 9 of their top 10 and 4starters from last years line. This was an offense that averaged 27.1points/game last yr and they should improve on that as every major piece of the offense is back including a strong OL. They will have to do a better job of protecting Willis who was sacked 4 or more times in 4 different games last yr. The offense also has to find more balance with the run game which again goes back to the OL and their improved play. On defense they return only 5 starters and are hurt by the recent departure of their 2nd leading tackler Reggie Carrington who left the program this spring. The DL is hurting with inexperience and depth. Last yr SMU had a rush defense that allowed just 3.2ypc which was their best since 1999. They lost a 1st TM C-USA DE, 2nd TM C-USA DT, a DT with 12 starts, and 2 backups. The LB corps would have been very very solid heading into the yr but the loss of Carrington will hurt. This is one position they do have a lot of depth at though, Carrington was 2nd TM C-USA LB but they do return the entire 2 deep at this position along with two transfers, one from Arizona and one from TAMU. At DB they return both corners and must replace both safties. This position does return 6 of their top 8 and they get back Brandon Jones (10st in 05') so it is not as inexperienced as it looks. They will also welcome a transfer from TTech and a JUCO player. Overall on defense you can expect the rush defense to get worse. There is just too much talent to replace and sustain the 3.2yards/carry they put up in 2006. The LB corps will have to anchor the defense and the pass defense should be improved despite the loss of their leading tackler who was a safety. The OOC schedule includes home games vs. Texas Tech and North Texas, and away games at Arkansas St and TCU. They have a legit shot to win 2 of those games and lose 2. They have a tough conference schedule with games at SoMiss, Houston, Tulsa, and Memphis. SMU could make for a good over team this yr, I don't expect the offensive numbers to slip but rather improve while I expect the defensive numbers to get worse than a conference best of 22.00ppg allowed in CUSA play. I do like Willis as a QB and SMU has a shot to get bowl eligibility this yr but is a team who has not been bowling since 1984, a win over NOTRE DAME :36_11_6:, seems like everyone beats them in bowl games.
Rice (7-6):
Another team that came out of no where to surprise the nation. In 2005 Rice was just 1-10, in 2006 they improved to 7-5 in the regular season and went to their first bowl game since 1961. They did this all while switching to the spread. That is a hell of an accomplishment for what is now the Tulsa HC. Can they sustain the momentum from last yr with 15starters back? New HC David Bailiff brings in a 21-15 record from D1AA Texas St. The good news for Bailiff is that his offense returns 9 starters from a group that averaged 27 points/game in 2006. At QB Chase Clement will return after a very productive yr (1707yards, 57.7%, 21TD-5INT, and 613yards rushing). Clement also was injured last yr vs. Houston and missed 3 games vs. UCLA, Texas, and FSU and later missed the game vs. SMU which they won with backup QB Armstrong. This yr I look for his numbers to improve provided he can remain healthy. I would think he would run a little less to conserv his health but who knows. The Owls did lose their leading rusher from last yr and that is the biggest loss on offense. Quinton Smith ran for 1160yards and 10TD's last yr. The next leading rushers are the two players who were at QB, Clement and Armstrong. The next leading RB had just 16net yards last yr so this is a big hole in the offense. At WR they will remain strong as long as Jarett Dillard is running routes. Dillard put up an impressive 91receptions-1247yards and 21 TD's IN 2006 and while he might draw some double teams this yr, he will not be stopped. Expect another 1000yards from Dillard. Armstrong who switched from WR to QB and back to WR should put up better numbers this yr as long as Clement stays healthy along with Tommy Henderson. The OL needs to protect Clement better, plain and simple. They gave up 3 or more sacks in 8 games last yr. This group returns 9 of their top 10 and should def improve on the play of last yr. The defense was hit a little harder by departures and returns just 6 starters from last yr. As a unit they also gave up 33 points/game last yr and had a pretty weak run defense. This yr they will change scheme and install a 4-2-5 defense. The DL was hit hardest and returns just 1 starter from last yr. By far the biggest concern on the defense and this does nothing to improve their run defense. At LB they return 3 starters and should improve from 2006 when they returned 0 linebackers with starting experience. The DB position returns both corners but loses both safeties. There will be less experience for this unit which was OK vs. the pass allowing 227yds / game. The OOC schedule features home games vs. Nicholls St and Texas Tech and road games at Baylor and Texas. They have a shot to win maybe 2 of these games, the 2nd being a win over Baylor but Rice has lost its road opener the last 5 yrs. The rest of the schedule features road games at SoMiss, Houston, Marshall, and SMU. I noted the Rice bowl game above because from what I saw in that game was a team who was beaten down by a faster and more athletic Troy team. The defense looked like absolute shit that game. It will be tough for Rice to improve of their 7-5 regular season record but they will be a team that is in a bunch of high scoring games. The defense is going to be weak against the run once again and if it does improve on its ppg allowed (33), it won't be by much. The offense won't be able to carry them every game but Clement-Dillard will be tough to stop once again. They must do a better job of protecting Clement this yr and he must stay healthy.
Tulane (4-8):
Tulane was a team who was devastated by both Katrina and injuries. They lacked proper workout facilities in the summer and actually went up to SMU to practice in the summer. The team also lost 10 players to season ending injuries, including 6 starters. The biggest win for Tulane has to be the 32-29 road win over Miss St in WK2. Tulane will also bring in a new HC in Bob Toledo, former UCLA coach for 7years until 2002. From what I know, Toledo tries to run a West Coast offense. On offense they were pretty weak last yr averaging just 18.7 points/game and this yr return only 5 starters. The first replacement will be at QB. Scott Elliott started the last 3 games of the yr and threw for 515yards (52.2%) and 4-4 TD/INT ratio. The job is not his however and it currently unsettled until summer camp begins. The RB position will be the strongest point of the offense. Matt Forte led the team in rushing last yr but had his season end after 9 games due to injury. He also had 360yards receiving last yr. It is important to have him 100% (Renew????) for this offense to have any type of production. The WR corps returns 6 players with starting experience but just 1 of their top 3. The OL returns 8 of their top 10 and 3 starters from last years offensive line. Overall the offense starts and stops with Forte, one of the top backs in C-USA. Without Forte last yr, Tulane scored 16points total in their last 3 games. On defense they must improve greatly as well as they were outgained by 118 yards/game in conference play. They do return 8 starters from last years group and 8 of their top 10 tacklers. The DL returns 3 starters from last yr and it should be one of their better and bigger DL in the school's history. At LB Tulane returns all 3 starters from last yr in what again should be a much improved unit. At DB they lose both corners and return both safeties, including leading tackler David Skehan. There are 6 players back with starting experience back here and this one of the deeper units. Overall as a defense there is not many places to go but up. Tulane gave up 33 points/game last yr and again were outgained by 118 yards/game in conference play. The OOC schedule features home games vs. Miss St, SE Louisiana, LSU, and a road game with Army. The success of the offense lies with the health of Matt Forte while the defense should improve but by how much? They were relatively weak against the run last yr but they have a very experienced front 7 this yr. They also must get more pressure on the QB, they had only 19 sacks last yr while giving up 29 on offense.
West Division Predicted order of finish:
1)Houston - More athletic than any team, solid offense and defense, should be the class of this side of the league but they don't come to play every week.
2)SMU - SMU is going to be very good on offense but they won't play much defense and they have a tough conference schedule.
3)Tulsa - I think Tulsa is vulnerable this yr but new HC worked magic w/ Rice last yr and they have a senior QB/RB and the schedule is kind to them
4)UTEP - UTEP has to run the ball better, also not very strong on defense vs. the run. There is talent at the WR position but someone has to get them the ball. They also must play So Miss, ECU, UCF, and could lose to all of these OOC teams; NM, NMST, Tex Tech.
*** anyone of these teams could end up the runner up of the division but it is hard to separate them right now.
5)Rice - Hard to imagine them having a better yr than last yr, will be tough to do as they draw So Miss, Memphis, & Marshall from the East Division.
6)Tulane - Just too much to overcome on offense for a not so talented team. They may pull another upset like last yr but hard to see them winning more than 4 games.
--------------C-USA East Division---------------
Southern Miss (9-5):
The emergence of 1st TM C-USA RB Damion Fletcher helped propel the offense to 25.4 points/game and get them to the C-USA championship. Fletcher as a true frosh stormed through C-USA to run for 1,447 yards and 11 TD's. He is not alone however, expect backup Tory Harrison to get a few more carries this yr and this duo should eclipse the 2k mark. There is also a very highly rated true frosh coming in named Antwain Easterling who make sniff the field a little bit. On an offense that returns 6 starters, QB Jeremy Young will have to step up and become the leader. In 2006, Young threw for 1,769 yards-12TD-6int and ran for another 354yards. His stats are OK but will have to improve to make this offense a little more dangerous. At WR, SoMiss lose their #1 & #2 WR's but return their leading receiver from last yr (36-506yds) in TE Shawn Nelson. The leading receiver coming back, Chris Johnson had just 253yds on 23 catches. This group will be inexperienced but the passing game should improve as Young gets a yr older, Nelson remains healthy because he is the conferences top TE, and the WR's have talent just lack experience. On the OL there are 2 starters back from last yr. Gone from last yr's group are 2 players who were 1st TM C-USA. They do however have 7 of their top 10 back and they have added a few JUCO's to the mix. There is just no way to replace the experience they lost but there is some talent on the OL to be almost as effective as last yr. Fletcher just needs a little hole to make it work and they should be able to provide that. On defense there are 8 starters back from a team who gave up 18.6 points/game on average in 2006. There are 3 starters back on the DL for SoMiss and is ranked as C-USA top DL. They are deep and experienced. At LB, they return all 3 starters from last yr so they should only improve with more game time. They also return their top backup who started 5 games. At DB they return both safeties and lose both corners. The corners are the only concern on the strong defense which will likely improve on last years 18.6 points/game. The defense has 8 of the top 10 tacklers back. The OOC schedule features home games with Tenn-Martin and Arkansas St and away games at Tennessee and Boise St. The Boise ST game is a pretty big match up as most likely the top team from C-USA meets one of the top 2 from the WAC. Those teams match up strength for strength too with Boise being a running team and a great OL vs. So Miss who will have a very good front 7. So Miss is a very tough home team under HC Bower, they are 60-16 in Mississippi. Overall this team has 2 concerns, the OL and the CB positions. The OL should take a little bit of time to gel but should be pretty decent. The CB position is rather unknown but the defense has a strong front 7. Their conference schedule features away games to Marshall, UAB, and UTEP, all of which they should win. They avoid Houston this yr and get Rice, SMU, UCF, and Memphis at home. They are likely to find themselves in the C-USA championship game this yr.
Memphis (2-10):
Well 2006 was a tough yr for the Tigers, what more is there to say. They did lose some close games (Miss by 3, UAB by 6, UCF by 2, and Houston by 3 in OT) and have 16 starters back this yr. Under HC Tommy West Memphis has had problems on the road and are just 11-21. In 2006 they were 1-4 on the road with the lone win coming in the last game of the yr at UTEP. Last yr was the first yr in their new offense and they had some struggles averaging 23.4 points/game. At QB Martin Hankins had a decent yr, he threw for 2,550 yards - 60% - 18TD - 13int. He needs to cut down on the turnovers as Memphis was +0 in turnovers last yr. Hankins should improve on those numbers as he is now a SR and a leader of the team. At RB they have another SR in Joseph Doss who should cross the 1k mark this yr despite the change to the spread offense. Doss ran for 957 yards on 224 att last yr and is known to be a solid blocker in the spread. At WR they return 5 of their top 6 and their leading receiver who picked up 681yds last yr. There is a lot of depth here and they should improve on the numbers from last yr as Hankins improves his game. The OL returns 3 starters from last yr and they brought in 3 JUCO players and a transfer from Tennessee. The offense will be in the 2nd yr of their new scheme and with the majority of important players back the numbers should improve. They will prob average around 28-29 points this yr vs. their 23.4 last yr. They have the talent at the skill positions to put up some good numbers. On defense they also return 8 starters including 3 on the DL. There are also 8 players with starting experience at this position. Memphis returns all 3 LB's from last yr and this is another position that is deep with experience and talent. At the DB position they were in complete chaos last yr. 10 different players started in the secondary. They also finished #117 in passing defense and allowed QB's to complete nearly 65% of their passes. They return 2 of their 4 from last yr. One loss comes at CB and one at Safety. They welcome some transfers and they moved a WR over to the defensive side of things. It is hard not to improve on those numbers and the experience of the front 7 should help things out. Overall as a defense they return 10 of their top 12 tacklers and they must improve on the 30.4 points/game they averaged last yr. The OOC schedule features home games with Mississippi, Middle Tenn St and Jacksonville St and an away game with Arkansas St. Memphis has a legit shot to win all 4 of its OOC games. The conference schedule is doable with away games at UCF, Rice, Tulane and SoMiss late. They get Marshall, ECU, UAB, and SMU all at home. I think without a question they improve on their 2 wins from last yr and should be heading back to a bowl game this yr for the 4th time in 5yrs. SoMiss is the class of this side of the conference but they can battle for #2-#3.
UCF (4-8):
They went from an 0-11 season in 2004 to the biggest turnaround in 2005 posting a 8-4 record and an appearance in the conference championship to another bad season at 4-8 in 2006. This yr they have 17 starters back and look to make it back to bowls again. A shot at the conference championship is unlikely with So Miss on their side of the division but improving on 2006 should be easy to do. On offense they have 8 starters back and this is an area where they need to improve big time. They averaged just 19.3 points/game in 2006. They played 2 QB's last yr and Moffett, the QB who played a little more is gone but Israel, the QB with the better numbers is back. Last yr Israel was 65%-1420yds-6td-5int vs. Moffett's 55%-1385yds-8td-5int. From the QB switching that went on last yr, Israel was able to gain a lot of game experience and so this is not really a green position for UCF. At RB they return a strong RB in Kevin Smith. Last yr Smith rushed for 954 yards in 9 games and this yr should easily exceed the 1k mark, provided he stays healthy. At WR they lost their main threat, Mike Walker who had 90receptions for 1,178yds, about twice as much as the next leading receiver but they do get 4 of their top 5 back. I am not sure anyone who returns can duplicate Walker's numbers so more than likely it will have to be a group effort here. The unit remains about a 6/10 due to not have any star power but having some players with experience.. On the OL they return 4 starters from last yrs team and as a unit have 124 combined starts. Sacks should be down this yr and the rushing game should be able to have its way with a lot of teams in the conference. On defense they return 9 starters but they were a pretty poor defense last yr. They averaged 28.8 points/game allowed which is way too high for a team with a slacking offense. On the DL they have 3/4 starters back from 2006 and have 6 players with starting experience. At LB they have 2/3 back and have 5 players with starting experience. At DB they return all 4 players back there and overall they have 7 players with starting experience. They must improve on their 62.2% completion percentage allowed and the 250yds/game passing allowed. Overall this defense has a lot of experience and with all of these guys back they must improve and cut down the points/game to something more manageable like 23-24. They have 10 of their top 12 tacklers back from last yr as well. The OOC schedule feature away games with NC State and USF and home games with Texas and ULL. It is possible they could lose 3 of their OOC games so in order to make it back to the bowl, there is little room for error in the conference. They must travel to play ECU, So Miss, UAB, and SMU and they get Tulsa at home. Last yr they were -7 in turnovers and they lost 3 really close games to USF (24-17), SoMiss (19-14) and Tulane (10-9). The schedule is certainly not easy and it will be tough to get back to another bowl but this team should win 6-7 games this yr with the amount of experience they have back. The running game is by far the strength of the offense and the defense can improve in everything.
ECU (7-6):
This team was an ATS monster last yr in what I felt like came out of nowhere (10-3), it will be pretty hard to duplicate that kind of success again. They lost their QB (4 yr starter), RB, and leading receiver so its expected that the offensive numbers struggle a little bit from an offense which wasn't that potent to begin with (21.5 points/game). Overall they 6 guys back on the offense. The expected heir at QB is Rob Kass who threw 30 passes last yr, completing 14 of them. There is clearly a lot of inexperience here and Kass will be just a sophomore. At RB the leading rusher last yr racked up 725yards and he is gone, Chris Johnson is set to take over here and he rushed for 346yards last yr on 78 carries. They will most likely use a 2 RB system so it could work for them if they remain healthy. The strength of the offense which is a good thing, is the OL. They return 4 starters at this position and should improve on the 27 sacks allowed last yr and 3.3 yards/carry. Overall there is going to be some tough growing pains on offense. Losing a 4yr starter at QB, leading rusher and leading receiver most likely means production will be down or at best maintain the 21.5 points/game they were able to produce last yr. On the opposite side of the ball they return 8 starters from a defense which gave up an average of 20.8 points/game. The DL has all 4 guys back, 7 players with starting experience, and a transfer expected to compete for time. The LB corps also has all 3 starters back and together with the DL should form a strong front 7 that should be able to improve on their 4ypc allowed from 2006. Look for that number to be somewhere in the 3's this yr. At the DB position they must replace 3 of 4 starters from last yr and all 3 of those players made HM in the C-USA so the losses are pretty heavy. The experience will be lacking here but the front 7 should be able to help them ease into the roll. Overall as a defense they should improve on the 20.8points/allowed last yr unless they start to get killed by the pass. The OOC schedule is no fun with games at VaTech and WVU and home games vs. NC and NC State. There are 2 def. losses in there and maybe they can split the games with the NC school. The conference schedule is a little rough as well with a slate of home vs. So Miss, @ WVU, @ Houston and then returning home to face UCF. The ATS success from 2006 caught me by surprise like I said before and they were only dogs of 10+ twice all yr in the regular season and favorites in 6 games. I doubt they can post another 10-3 ATS record but this team should be good for some unders as the offense will struggle early and often and the defense should be pretty strong.
Marshall (5-7):
Getting bowl eligible is the goal for the thundering herd in 2007 but it will be a difficult task despite having 7 starters back on each side of the ball. A Marshall offense that averaged 26 points/game takes a hit losing their leading rusher, Ahmad Bradshaw who racked up 1,575yards and 19 TD's. Bradshaw will now try to play on Sundays for the G-Women after leaving school early. At QB, Marshall returns their starter from last yr Bernard Morris. Morris completed 61.7% of his passes but had 12int and only 8td. As a senior this yr, Morris must cut down on the turnovers and give his offense a chance. The RB position does return their #2 & #3 rushers but its very unlikely together they can match Bradshaw's number. Marshall will have to establish some type of run game though in order to take the heat off of Morris. At WR they return their leading wide receiver from last yr which should help the passing game and their overall leading receiver who was the TE. Production should rise this yr as well as they get more experience, QB gets better however I do have a qualm with the TE being the leading receiver. I didn't watch a whole lot of Marshall games but with a RB who had nearly 1,600 yards, I think that they used a lot of play action to get the ball to the TE and if they don't have a good running game basically teams won't be fooled and won't have to commit to the run so the TE production could slide from his 43 receptions and 684 yards, just something to keep an eye on. On the OL there are 3 starters back from last yr and four players who have been full-time starters. The OL position should not drop off at all really. On defense they gave up an average of 29.3 points/game which is miserable so with 7 starters back they should improve on that and at least lower it to 24-25 points/game. The DL has 2 of their 4 back however one of those guys is Albert McClellan who led the conference in sacks and tackles for a loss. They also return 5 of their top 8 so they should be stronger despite losing 2 starters from last yr. At LB they return 2 of their starters from last yr including Georgia transfer Josh Johnson in the middle who picked up 72 tackles in 8 starts last yr. This unit should be better as well but lacks a lot of depth. The DB position returns 3 of 4 from last yr and must replace 1st TM C-USA strong safety Curtis Keyes, also the leading tackler. They have 5 players back with starting experience so there they should still improve. Overall as a defense in order to improve on their ppg allowed, they must improve 1)against the pass (64% & 252yds/game) and they must lower the ypc (4.1). There is a lot of experience back on defense so improving on last yrs 29.3 points/game allowed should be easy. The schedule is not so kind with OOC games at Miami(FL) and Cinci and home games vs. WVU and New Hampshire. I stated earlier the goal of this program would be to go bowling but with 3 likely OOC losses there is little room for error in the conference. Marshall also draws Houston and Tulsa both on the road and Rice at home from the West Division. They also must travel to Memphis which is a revenge game for Memphis and face an improving UCF team who beat them last yr in their new stadium. The schedule is difficult for them but a bowl game is do able. They key to getting back to the bowls is to 1)establish the running game, 2)cut down on turnovers, Marshall was -9 last yr, 3)improve on defense in both scoring
and passing.
UAB (3-9):
The Blazers fell on hard times last yr and struggled on offense badly. They also took some hits in the off season to an already inexperienced defense. To be short here, UAB is going to have a very very tough season this yr. On both offense and defense they return 4 starters however with a recent defect in the off season, the defense only returns 3 starters. In 2006 the offense averaged just 18.8 points/game. They did use different QB's last yr but in a ratio of 2:1 and the QB who represents the 1 is back. His numbers are not that encouraging in limited snaps (48-82, 58.5%, 655yds, 2TD-5int) and he also represents a returning starter so really this unit could be said to have 3 starters back as well. It will be Sam Hunt's job to lose but he will have to battle with Joseph Hunt who had success in limited appearances. If the offense struggles like I think it will you will see a lot of both QB's. At the RB position they lose their top 3 rushers from 2006, none of them eclipsed 500 yards. The leading returning rusher is the QB, Sam Hunt and the 2nd leading rusher is the backup QB, Joseph Hunt. This position is pretty weak. At WR they lost their 4 of their top 5 including their leading receiver, they do return their #2 who picked up 400 yards on 31 receptions last yr. On the OL they return 2 of their 5 from last yr and lost 6 of the top 10 from 2006. As you can see, there is a lot of inexperience on offense and add in the fact they have a new HC and must learn a new offensive scheme, its very unlikely they can top last years 18.8 points/game. On defense they return just 3 starters now from what was an OK defense (24.8 points/game). The DL must replace 2 of their 4 starters and had 2 back up players leave the team, they lost 6 of their top 8 and really have no depth or size with an average weight of 245-250. At LB they return 1 starter from last yr but they do have 3 players back with starting experience. Maybe the deepest position on the team and that is not saying much. At DB they have 1 starter back, their top cover corner, but they don't have a lot of depth here either. Last yr the DB's gave up 213yds/game vs. the pass and allowed QB's to complete 63.1% of passes. Overall it would be very tough for UAB to maintain the 24.8 points/game they allowed in 2006, this yr it will creep close to 30. The OOC schedule is not very nice with 2 straight games on the road to open the yr vs. MSU and FSU. They get Alcorn St at home and then must travel to Miss St. The conference schedule is tough as well with games at Tulsa, Houston at home, So Miss at home, at Memphis, at Marshall, at ECU. UAB is in a world of trouble this yr and likely will be the worst team in CUSA..Getting back to 3 wins will be a lot harder than most think with the only given vs. Alcorn St and even that might be a battle. UAB has no experience anywhere, they have a new HC with new schemes, and they lost 27 seniors from the 2006 team. There is likely very little leadership, something that is important for a team but is often overlooked.
East Division Predicted order of finish:
1)So Miss - The class of this side of the conference, plain and simple.
2)Memphis & UCF - Both have their question marks but both should be able to improve on their 2006 seasons.
4)ECU - Losing your QB-RB-WR is a hell of a combo and the QB was a 4yr starter so there will be some bumps in the road but they have a pretty solid defense and that should keep them in most games.
5)Marshall - I just don't think on offense they can replace the production of Bradshaw and the passing game isn't all that impressive to start with. The defense which gave up nearly 30points/game should improve but not more more than 4-5 points which I am not sure is enough to make up for their lack of production on offense. Add in a tough schedule as well.
6)UAB - They are by far the worst team in the conference and I would take an O/U of 3 wins on them right now and take the under. They just lost wayyyyyyy too much to have any kind of success under a 1st yr head coach. They return 33 lettermen and lost 31, including 27 seniors.
The defending C-USA champs will have to rebound after losing Kevin Kolb to the Eagles in this years draft. The important thing to note, and I tip my hat to Kolb who had a damn good career, is that Kolb was a four yr starter. Replacing his type of production and efficiency will not happen this yr for sure. Houston was a very tough team to get a read on and it seems like if you look back at last yr, as a team they did not have a short memory. This is a team who started off 4-0, just beat Oklahoma St and than went to play a game at Miami where they lost 14-13 and the middle of the season tanked. You get the feeling for an undefeated team from C-USA to come so close to beating a big name program like Miami that there would be letdown. The next week at home they lose to Sunbelt superpower ULL (joke) followed by a tough loss at So Miss by 4 points. A 4-0 season suddenly became a 4-3 season and it was time for Houston to regroup, which they did. They went on to win their next 6 games including the C-USA championship over SoMiss by 14points. During the bowl game, which I have watched more than 4 times, the thing that impressed me about Houston was their team speed. They had players faster than the players on So Carolina, particularly at WR. HC Briles is also a pretty smart head coach and has some good play calling. This yr on offense Houston returns 6 starters. The biggest loss of course is Kolb. Replacing Kolb won't be easy and will affect the overall effectiveness of this offense. Since no other QB sniffed the field last yr, there is no experience here. Currently Blake Joseph, a sophmore, is set to battle Case Keenum who is only a R-Frosh. At running back, converted WR, Anthony Alridge will be the leading ball carrier this yr. Jackie Battle was their between the tackle bruiser and Alridge used his speed on the outside but Battle is now gone. Alridge did lead the team in yards with 965 on only 95 carries, pretty sick numbers and almost impossible to duplicate. The question is, can he take a pounding of 20-25 carries a game? He should be dangerous in open space since he can catch the ball though. At WR, they should be fairly strong with the return of Donnie Avery and Jeron Harvey. Harvey is a big WR at 6'5 and Avery can flat out run. They did lose their leading receiver in Vincent Marshall but they are still a solid bunch. On the line they should be talented and one of the strongest units in C-USA. They return 3 starters from last yr's group, four of the scheduled starters have starting experience, and they have depth from some JUCO transfers. This is very important as Houston will be fresh at QB, at least there is a pretty good indication he will have some time to throw. On defense as a unit they return 7 starters and 22 of their top 27 tacklers. They run a 3-4 scheme and return 4 of their top 6 on the DL. They also added a transfer from Auburn and JUCO player as well. The LB corps return 7 of their top 8 but did lose 1st Tm CUSA player in Wade Koehl. This position should be very experienced and also should be one of the top units in C-USA. The DB position lost both a 2nd TM CUSA player and a 1ST Tm CUSA player but do return 3 full time starters back and 5 players who have made 3 or more starts last yr. Overall as a defense which will be in its 3rd yr of the 3-4 scheme, they should continue to improve. They were from 32.2 points/game in 2004 to 27 points/game in 2005 to 23.5 points/game in 2006. My final conclusion about this team is that they will be strong on both sides of the ball, provided they get some decent QB play. The defense should be able to keep them in the games while the OL should be able to protect the QB, and the running game should be the constant force that the offense needs. I don't think they can match last yr's average of 33 points/game but they won't fall that far behind. I think very highly of Briles and his offense. The OOC schedule features a game at Oregon opening week, a home game vs. Colorodo St, a game at Bama, and a home game vs. Texas Southern. The overall schedule is not too difficult if you take out the 2 OOC games @ Oregon and @ Bama which are likely losses.
Tulsa (8-5):
Here is a team who played pretty solid football last yr in the beginning of the yr but pretty much blew 3 conference games in a row at the end of the season to lose their lead in the West division and failed to make a run for the championship game. Tulsa dropped consecutive games to Houston, Rice, and SMU. This yr they will welcome a new HC, Todd Graham, who was DC under Kragthorpe for 3 yrs prior to last yr where he took the HC job at Rice. He now returns back to Tulsa with OC Gus Malzhan, former Arkansas OC and successful HS coach. The offense only returns 4 starters, one being very important in Senior QB Paul Smith. Smith was effective as a QB last yr completing 66.6% of his passes for 2727yards and had a 15-9 TD-Int ratio. Smith also ran for 390 yards. RB Courtney Tennial is back and was their leading rusher last yr with 862yards on 171 attempts. The positions that lack experience are the WR and OL positions. At WR they lost their top two leading receivers and 3 of their top 4. The leading receiver coming back had just 362yards last yr on 31 catches and 1 TD. On the line they have been hit hard. They lose 2nd Team CUSA center, 2nd Team CUSA left guard, 1st Team CUSA right tackle, and a left tackle with 13starts. They return just 1 starter on the OL from last yr's team. The losses on the OL could be pretty devastating to an offense who averaged 27.7 points/game. They will welcome a new scheme on offense it will take some time to gel as a unit and build chemistry. They are lacking depth so much that they moved DT Walter Boyd to the offensive side of things. On defense they return 6 starters and 5 of their top 10 tacklers. The defensive scheme is a 3-3-5 and that will stay the same despite the HC changes. The DL lost their top two guys from 2006 and their 2 top backups but they do have 2 players with starting experience. The LB corps returns the teams leading tackler in Nelson Coleman but loses C-USA defensive player of the yr in Nick Bunting as well as their #3 tackler on the team Kedrick Alexander. The DB position returns 2 of their 5 from last yr, have some quality backups but overall they will be inexperienced. Their OOC schedule begins with a game at ULM, a bye week prior to a home game vs. BYU, then they welcome Oklahoma, and later in the yr will play Army. My take on this team is that both the offensive production and the defensive effectiveness from last yr should slide. The losses on the OL for Tulsa are serious as they lost a lot of ALL-CUSA players. The losses at LB and the DL will also hurt the defense which averaged giving up 20.2 points/game. The opening game at ULM might be a little tougher than they expect, the OOC games to BYU and Oklahoma are losses but overall the road schedule is not that tough with games at UTEP, UCF, Tulane, Army, and Rice. This could be a team who might not be too good vs. the spread as favorites.
UTEP (5-7):
Going into 06', UTEP was a team who was suppose to battle Houston for the division, they had 29 seniors, and preseason #1 offense in the conference. UTEP finished 5-7 which is underachieving at its best. Lets start with the offense where Jordan Palmer is now gone and despite throwing INT's in key situations last yr, he had a pretty decent yr (3595yds, 65.7%, 26-14 TD-INT). They must start fresh at QB this yr which will be a battle between red shirt frosh Trevor Vittatoe and sophomore Brandis Dew who is recovering from shoulder surgery and could move to defense. At RB, the production will need to get better, there is no other word for it when they averaged 58yards rushing/game. I must add that it came on an average of 18 attempts. They have their leading rusher back who had 565yards on the yr on 156 attempts. At WR they lose 3 of their top 4 in terms of yards/receptions but do welcome Fred Rouse, former FSU player and prep star. Lorne Sam is also expected to lineup at WR, he is a converted QB and another FSU transfer. The bottom line here is that Rouse and Sam are more than capable of reproducing last years production at WR, they just need a QB to get them the ball. On the OL they return all 5 starters and 8 players who started in games last yr, there is no where for this group to go but up. There certainly is talent on the offense with the FSU transfers being more talented than other players in C-USA but they must must must improve their running game. Returning the whole offensive line will go a long ways to improving that. On defense they return 4 starters and must must replace their whole DL. That is four new starters on the DL expected to be mostly sophomores and juniors. The LB position should be stronger than last years group, it is experienced, and it will welcome some new faces as well. This is the strongest position on the defense and maybe the team but they will need the DL to be effective so they don't have men in their face all game. At DB they return 2 of 4 from last years secondary including Quintin Demps, 1st TM CUSA and led the confernce in INT's. The OOC schedule features an opening game at home vs. New Mexico who beat them last yr, a trip to Texas Tech, a game at NMST, and a home game vs. Texas Southern. They have a pretty easy road schedule outside of the OOC games with trips to SMU, Rice, Tulane and UCF. Overall, the offensive line should improve so in turn the running game should improve. There is talent at WR with the transfers, just have to get them the ball. On defense, they were weak against the run last yr and I can't seeing that changing to much with 4 new faces on the DL. The LB corps is solid but they can't make every tackle. Just want to wish HC Pierce good health, knew he had heart surgery a little bit ago. Hope he has a speedy recovery.
SMU (6-6):
Here is a team who did a little bit of surprising of their own behind a true frosh QB in Justin Willis. They were 5-1 at home and lost on the road to Texas Tech, North Texas, UTEP, ECU, and Rice. Willis is a talent and will only get better with more experience. It is important to note that under HC Bennett, SMU is just 4-25 away compared to 13-16 at home. On the yr Willis completed 67.2% for 2047yards and had a 26-6 TD-Int ratio. He also picked up nearly 600yards on the ground. It was a pleasant surprise to see a true frosh play with so much confidence and poise. At RB, the Mustangs return their two leading rushers however, neither one broke 400yards last yr. DeMyron Martin (394yds on 92att) and James Mapp (352yds on 69att) both will need to pick the production up. At WR, SMU returns 2 of their top 3 but did lose a decent amount of depth at this position. They have moved a CB, Devin Lowery (4.37 speed) to WR to compensate for the losses. Overall production at this position should improve as they gain more experience and Willis gets more comfortable at the helm. There is a ton of speed out wide for SMU, it is just a matter of catching the ball and running good routes. The OL is going to be very strong for SMU as they return 9 of their top 10 and 4starters from last years line. This was an offense that averaged 27.1points/game last yr and they should improve on that as every major piece of the offense is back including a strong OL. They will have to do a better job of protecting Willis who was sacked 4 or more times in 4 different games last yr. The offense also has to find more balance with the run game which again goes back to the OL and their improved play. On defense they return only 5 starters and are hurt by the recent departure of their 2nd leading tackler Reggie Carrington who left the program this spring. The DL is hurting with inexperience and depth. Last yr SMU had a rush defense that allowed just 3.2ypc which was their best since 1999. They lost a 1st TM C-USA DE, 2nd TM C-USA DT, a DT with 12 starts, and 2 backups. The LB corps would have been very very solid heading into the yr but the loss of Carrington will hurt. This is one position they do have a lot of depth at though, Carrington was 2nd TM C-USA LB but they do return the entire 2 deep at this position along with two transfers, one from Arizona and one from TAMU. At DB they return both corners and must replace both safties. This position does return 6 of their top 8 and they get back Brandon Jones (10st in 05') so it is not as inexperienced as it looks. They will also welcome a transfer from TTech and a JUCO player. Overall on defense you can expect the rush defense to get worse. There is just too much talent to replace and sustain the 3.2yards/carry they put up in 2006. The LB corps will have to anchor the defense and the pass defense should be improved despite the loss of their leading tackler who was a safety. The OOC schedule includes home games vs. Texas Tech and North Texas, and away games at Arkansas St and TCU. They have a legit shot to win 2 of those games and lose 2. They have a tough conference schedule with games at SoMiss, Houston, Tulsa, and Memphis. SMU could make for a good over team this yr, I don't expect the offensive numbers to slip but rather improve while I expect the defensive numbers to get worse than a conference best of 22.00ppg allowed in CUSA play. I do like Willis as a QB and SMU has a shot to get bowl eligibility this yr but is a team who has not been bowling since 1984, a win over NOTRE DAME :36_11_6:, seems like everyone beats them in bowl games.
Rice (7-6):
Another team that came out of no where to surprise the nation. In 2005 Rice was just 1-10, in 2006 they improved to 7-5 in the regular season and went to their first bowl game since 1961. They did this all while switching to the spread. That is a hell of an accomplishment for what is now the Tulsa HC. Can they sustain the momentum from last yr with 15starters back? New HC David Bailiff brings in a 21-15 record from D1AA Texas St. The good news for Bailiff is that his offense returns 9 starters from a group that averaged 27 points/game in 2006. At QB Chase Clement will return after a very productive yr (1707yards, 57.7%, 21TD-5INT, and 613yards rushing). Clement also was injured last yr vs. Houston and missed 3 games vs. UCLA, Texas, and FSU and later missed the game vs. SMU which they won with backup QB Armstrong. This yr I look for his numbers to improve provided he can remain healthy. I would think he would run a little less to conserv his health but who knows. The Owls did lose their leading rusher from last yr and that is the biggest loss on offense. Quinton Smith ran for 1160yards and 10TD's last yr. The next leading rushers are the two players who were at QB, Clement and Armstrong. The next leading RB had just 16net yards last yr so this is a big hole in the offense. At WR they will remain strong as long as Jarett Dillard is running routes. Dillard put up an impressive 91receptions-1247yards and 21 TD's IN 2006 and while he might draw some double teams this yr, he will not be stopped. Expect another 1000yards from Dillard. Armstrong who switched from WR to QB and back to WR should put up better numbers this yr as long as Clement stays healthy along with Tommy Henderson. The OL needs to protect Clement better, plain and simple. They gave up 3 or more sacks in 8 games last yr. This group returns 9 of their top 10 and should def improve on the play of last yr. The defense was hit a little harder by departures and returns just 6 starters from last yr. As a unit they also gave up 33 points/game last yr and had a pretty weak run defense. This yr they will change scheme and install a 4-2-5 defense. The DL was hit hardest and returns just 1 starter from last yr. By far the biggest concern on the defense and this does nothing to improve their run defense. At LB they return 3 starters and should improve from 2006 when they returned 0 linebackers with starting experience. The DB position returns both corners but loses both safeties. There will be less experience for this unit which was OK vs. the pass allowing 227yds / game. The OOC schedule features home games vs. Nicholls St and Texas Tech and road games at Baylor and Texas. They have a shot to win maybe 2 of these games, the 2nd being a win over Baylor but Rice has lost its road opener the last 5 yrs. The rest of the schedule features road games at SoMiss, Houston, Marshall, and SMU. I noted the Rice bowl game above because from what I saw in that game was a team who was beaten down by a faster and more athletic Troy team. The defense looked like absolute shit that game. It will be tough for Rice to improve of their 7-5 regular season record but they will be a team that is in a bunch of high scoring games. The defense is going to be weak against the run once again and if it does improve on its ppg allowed (33), it won't be by much. The offense won't be able to carry them every game but Clement-Dillard will be tough to stop once again. They must do a better job of protecting Clement this yr and he must stay healthy.
Tulane (4-8):
Tulane was a team who was devastated by both Katrina and injuries. They lacked proper workout facilities in the summer and actually went up to SMU to practice in the summer. The team also lost 10 players to season ending injuries, including 6 starters. The biggest win for Tulane has to be the 32-29 road win over Miss St in WK2. Tulane will also bring in a new HC in Bob Toledo, former UCLA coach for 7years until 2002. From what I know, Toledo tries to run a West Coast offense. On offense they were pretty weak last yr averaging just 18.7 points/game and this yr return only 5 starters. The first replacement will be at QB. Scott Elliott started the last 3 games of the yr and threw for 515yards (52.2%) and 4-4 TD/INT ratio. The job is not his however and it currently unsettled until summer camp begins. The RB position will be the strongest point of the offense. Matt Forte led the team in rushing last yr but had his season end after 9 games due to injury. He also had 360yards receiving last yr. It is important to have him 100% (Renew????) for this offense to have any type of production. The WR corps returns 6 players with starting experience but just 1 of their top 3. The OL returns 8 of their top 10 and 3 starters from last years offensive line. Overall the offense starts and stops with Forte, one of the top backs in C-USA. Without Forte last yr, Tulane scored 16points total in their last 3 games. On defense they must improve greatly as well as they were outgained by 118 yards/game in conference play. They do return 8 starters from last years group and 8 of their top 10 tacklers. The DL returns 3 starters from last yr and it should be one of their better and bigger DL in the school's history. At LB Tulane returns all 3 starters from last yr in what again should be a much improved unit. At DB they lose both corners and return both safeties, including leading tackler David Skehan. There are 6 players back with starting experience back here and this one of the deeper units. Overall as a defense there is not many places to go but up. Tulane gave up 33 points/game last yr and again were outgained by 118 yards/game in conference play. The OOC schedule features home games vs. Miss St, SE Louisiana, LSU, and a road game with Army. The success of the offense lies with the health of Matt Forte while the defense should improve but by how much? They were relatively weak against the run last yr but they have a very experienced front 7 this yr. They also must get more pressure on the QB, they had only 19 sacks last yr while giving up 29 on offense.
West Division Predicted order of finish:
1)Houston - More athletic than any team, solid offense and defense, should be the class of this side of the league but they don't come to play every week.
2)SMU - SMU is going to be very good on offense but they won't play much defense and they have a tough conference schedule.
3)Tulsa - I think Tulsa is vulnerable this yr but new HC worked magic w/ Rice last yr and they have a senior QB/RB and the schedule is kind to them
4)UTEP - UTEP has to run the ball better, also not very strong on defense vs. the run. There is talent at the WR position but someone has to get them the ball. They also must play So Miss, ECU, UCF, and could lose to all of these OOC teams; NM, NMST, Tex Tech.
*** anyone of these teams could end up the runner up of the division but it is hard to separate them right now.
5)Rice - Hard to imagine them having a better yr than last yr, will be tough to do as they draw So Miss, Memphis, & Marshall from the East Division.
6)Tulane - Just too much to overcome on offense for a not so talented team. They may pull another upset like last yr but hard to see them winning more than 4 games.
--------------C-USA East Division---------------
Southern Miss (9-5):
The emergence of 1st TM C-USA RB Damion Fletcher helped propel the offense to 25.4 points/game and get them to the C-USA championship. Fletcher as a true frosh stormed through C-USA to run for 1,447 yards and 11 TD's. He is not alone however, expect backup Tory Harrison to get a few more carries this yr and this duo should eclipse the 2k mark. There is also a very highly rated true frosh coming in named Antwain Easterling who make sniff the field a little bit. On an offense that returns 6 starters, QB Jeremy Young will have to step up and become the leader. In 2006, Young threw for 1,769 yards-12TD-6int and ran for another 354yards. His stats are OK but will have to improve to make this offense a little more dangerous. At WR, SoMiss lose their #1 & #2 WR's but return their leading receiver from last yr (36-506yds) in TE Shawn Nelson. The leading receiver coming back, Chris Johnson had just 253yds on 23 catches. This group will be inexperienced but the passing game should improve as Young gets a yr older, Nelson remains healthy because he is the conferences top TE, and the WR's have talent just lack experience. On the OL there are 2 starters back from last yr. Gone from last yr's group are 2 players who were 1st TM C-USA. They do however have 7 of their top 10 back and they have added a few JUCO's to the mix. There is just no way to replace the experience they lost but there is some talent on the OL to be almost as effective as last yr. Fletcher just needs a little hole to make it work and they should be able to provide that. On defense there are 8 starters back from a team who gave up 18.6 points/game on average in 2006. There are 3 starters back on the DL for SoMiss and is ranked as C-USA top DL. They are deep and experienced. At LB, they return all 3 starters from last yr so they should only improve with more game time. They also return their top backup who started 5 games. At DB they return both safeties and lose both corners. The corners are the only concern on the strong defense which will likely improve on last years 18.6 points/game. The defense has 8 of the top 10 tacklers back. The OOC schedule features home games with Tenn-Martin and Arkansas St and away games at Tennessee and Boise St. The Boise ST game is a pretty big match up as most likely the top team from C-USA meets one of the top 2 from the WAC. Those teams match up strength for strength too with Boise being a running team and a great OL vs. So Miss who will have a very good front 7. So Miss is a very tough home team under HC Bower, they are 60-16 in Mississippi. Overall this team has 2 concerns, the OL and the CB positions. The OL should take a little bit of time to gel but should be pretty decent. The CB position is rather unknown but the defense has a strong front 7. Their conference schedule features away games to Marshall, UAB, and UTEP, all of which they should win. They avoid Houston this yr and get Rice, SMU, UCF, and Memphis at home. They are likely to find themselves in the C-USA championship game this yr.
Memphis (2-10):
Well 2006 was a tough yr for the Tigers, what more is there to say. They did lose some close games (Miss by 3, UAB by 6, UCF by 2, and Houston by 3 in OT) and have 16 starters back this yr. Under HC Tommy West Memphis has had problems on the road and are just 11-21. In 2006 they were 1-4 on the road with the lone win coming in the last game of the yr at UTEP. Last yr was the first yr in their new offense and they had some struggles averaging 23.4 points/game. At QB Martin Hankins had a decent yr, he threw for 2,550 yards - 60% - 18TD - 13int. He needs to cut down on the turnovers as Memphis was +0 in turnovers last yr. Hankins should improve on those numbers as he is now a SR and a leader of the team. At RB they have another SR in Joseph Doss who should cross the 1k mark this yr despite the change to the spread offense. Doss ran for 957 yards on 224 att last yr and is known to be a solid blocker in the spread. At WR they return 5 of their top 6 and their leading receiver who picked up 681yds last yr. There is a lot of depth here and they should improve on the numbers from last yr as Hankins improves his game. The OL returns 3 starters from last yr and they brought in 3 JUCO players and a transfer from Tennessee. The offense will be in the 2nd yr of their new scheme and with the majority of important players back the numbers should improve. They will prob average around 28-29 points this yr vs. their 23.4 last yr. They have the talent at the skill positions to put up some good numbers. On defense they also return 8 starters including 3 on the DL. There are also 8 players with starting experience at this position. Memphis returns all 3 LB's from last yr and this is another position that is deep with experience and talent. At the DB position they were in complete chaos last yr. 10 different players started in the secondary. They also finished #117 in passing defense and allowed QB's to complete nearly 65% of their passes. They return 2 of their 4 from last yr. One loss comes at CB and one at Safety. They welcome some transfers and they moved a WR over to the defensive side of things. It is hard not to improve on those numbers and the experience of the front 7 should help things out. Overall as a defense they return 10 of their top 12 tacklers and they must improve on the 30.4 points/game they averaged last yr. The OOC schedule features home games with Mississippi, Middle Tenn St and Jacksonville St and an away game with Arkansas St. Memphis has a legit shot to win all 4 of its OOC games. The conference schedule is doable with away games at UCF, Rice, Tulane and SoMiss late. They get Marshall, ECU, UAB, and SMU all at home. I think without a question they improve on their 2 wins from last yr and should be heading back to a bowl game this yr for the 4th time in 5yrs. SoMiss is the class of this side of the conference but they can battle for #2-#3.
UCF (4-8):
They went from an 0-11 season in 2004 to the biggest turnaround in 2005 posting a 8-4 record and an appearance in the conference championship to another bad season at 4-8 in 2006. This yr they have 17 starters back and look to make it back to bowls again. A shot at the conference championship is unlikely with So Miss on their side of the division but improving on 2006 should be easy to do. On offense they have 8 starters back and this is an area where they need to improve big time. They averaged just 19.3 points/game in 2006. They played 2 QB's last yr and Moffett, the QB who played a little more is gone but Israel, the QB with the better numbers is back. Last yr Israel was 65%-1420yds-6td-5int vs. Moffett's 55%-1385yds-8td-5int. From the QB switching that went on last yr, Israel was able to gain a lot of game experience and so this is not really a green position for UCF. At RB they return a strong RB in Kevin Smith. Last yr Smith rushed for 954 yards in 9 games and this yr should easily exceed the 1k mark, provided he stays healthy. At WR they lost their main threat, Mike Walker who had 90receptions for 1,178yds, about twice as much as the next leading receiver but they do get 4 of their top 5 back. I am not sure anyone who returns can duplicate Walker's numbers so more than likely it will have to be a group effort here. The unit remains about a 6/10 due to not have any star power but having some players with experience.. On the OL they return 4 starters from last yrs team and as a unit have 124 combined starts. Sacks should be down this yr and the rushing game should be able to have its way with a lot of teams in the conference. On defense they return 9 starters but they were a pretty poor defense last yr. They averaged 28.8 points/game allowed which is way too high for a team with a slacking offense. On the DL they have 3/4 starters back from 2006 and have 6 players with starting experience. At LB they have 2/3 back and have 5 players with starting experience. At DB they return all 4 players back there and overall they have 7 players with starting experience. They must improve on their 62.2% completion percentage allowed and the 250yds/game passing allowed. Overall this defense has a lot of experience and with all of these guys back they must improve and cut down the points/game to something more manageable like 23-24. They have 10 of their top 12 tacklers back from last yr as well. The OOC schedule feature away games with NC State and USF and home games with Texas and ULL. It is possible they could lose 3 of their OOC games so in order to make it back to the bowl, there is little room for error in the conference. They must travel to play ECU, So Miss, UAB, and SMU and they get Tulsa at home. Last yr they were -7 in turnovers and they lost 3 really close games to USF (24-17), SoMiss (19-14) and Tulane (10-9). The schedule is certainly not easy and it will be tough to get back to another bowl but this team should win 6-7 games this yr with the amount of experience they have back. The running game is by far the strength of the offense and the defense can improve in everything.
ECU (7-6):
This team was an ATS monster last yr in what I felt like came out of nowhere (10-3), it will be pretty hard to duplicate that kind of success again. They lost their QB (4 yr starter), RB, and leading receiver so its expected that the offensive numbers struggle a little bit from an offense which wasn't that potent to begin with (21.5 points/game). Overall they 6 guys back on the offense. The expected heir at QB is Rob Kass who threw 30 passes last yr, completing 14 of them. There is clearly a lot of inexperience here and Kass will be just a sophomore. At RB the leading rusher last yr racked up 725yards and he is gone, Chris Johnson is set to take over here and he rushed for 346yards last yr on 78 carries. They will most likely use a 2 RB system so it could work for them if they remain healthy. The strength of the offense which is a good thing, is the OL. They return 4 starters at this position and should improve on the 27 sacks allowed last yr and 3.3 yards/carry. Overall there is going to be some tough growing pains on offense. Losing a 4yr starter at QB, leading rusher and leading receiver most likely means production will be down or at best maintain the 21.5 points/game they were able to produce last yr. On the opposite side of the ball they return 8 starters from a defense which gave up an average of 20.8 points/game. The DL has all 4 guys back, 7 players with starting experience, and a transfer expected to compete for time. The LB corps also has all 3 starters back and together with the DL should form a strong front 7 that should be able to improve on their 4ypc allowed from 2006. Look for that number to be somewhere in the 3's this yr. At the DB position they must replace 3 of 4 starters from last yr and all 3 of those players made HM in the C-USA so the losses are pretty heavy. The experience will be lacking here but the front 7 should be able to help them ease into the roll. Overall as a defense they should improve on the 20.8points/allowed last yr unless they start to get killed by the pass. The OOC schedule is no fun with games at VaTech and WVU and home games vs. NC and NC State. There are 2 def. losses in there and maybe they can split the games with the NC school. The conference schedule is a little rough as well with a slate of home vs. So Miss, @ WVU, @ Houston and then returning home to face UCF. The ATS success from 2006 caught me by surprise like I said before and they were only dogs of 10+ twice all yr in the regular season and favorites in 6 games. I doubt they can post another 10-3 ATS record but this team should be good for some unders as the offense will struggle early and often and the defense should be pretty strong.
Marshall (5-7):
Getting bowl eligible is the goal for the thundering herd in 2007 but it will be a difficult task despite having 7 starters back on each side of the ball. A Marshall offense that averaged 26 points/game takes a hit losing their leading rusher, Ahmad Bradshaw who racked up 1,575yards and 19 TD's. Bradshaw will now try to play on Sundays for the G-Women after leaving school early. At QB, Marshall returns their starter from last yr Bernard Morris. Morris completed 61.7% of his passes but had 12int and only 8td. As a senior this yr, Morris must cut down on the turnovers and give his offense a chance. The RB position does return their #2 & #3 rushers but its very unlikely together they can match Bradshaw's number. Marshall will have to establish some type of run game though in order to take the heat off of Morris. At WR they return their leading wide receiver from last yr which should help the passing game and their overall leading receiver who was the TE. Production should rise this yr as well as they get more experience, QB gets better however I do have a qualm with the TE being the leading receiver. I didn't watch a whole lot of Marshall games but with a RB who had nearly 1,600 yards, I think that they used a lot of play action to get the ball to the TE and if they don't have a good running game basically teams won't be fooled and won't have to commit to the run so the TE production could slide from his 43 receptions and 684 yards, just something to keep an eye on. On the OL there are 3 starters back from last yr and four players who have been full-time starters. The OL position should not drop off at all really. On defense they gave up an average of 29.3 points/game which is miserable so with 7 starters back they should improve on that and at least lower it to 24-25 points/game. The DL has 2 of their 4 back however one of those guys is Albert McClellan who led the conference in sacks and tackles for a loss. They also return 5 of their top 8 so they should be stronger despite losing 2 starters from last yr. At LB they return 2 of their starters from last yr including Georgia transfer Josh Johnson in the middle who picked up 72 tackles in 8 starts last yr. This unit should be better as well but lacks a lot of depth. The DB position returns 3 of 4 from last yr and must replace 1st TM C-USA strong safety Curtis Keyes, also the leading tackler. They have 5 players back with starting experience so there they should still improve. Overall as a defense in order to improve on their ppg allowed, they must improve 1)against the pass (64% & 252yds/game) and they must lower the ypc (4.1). There is a lot of experience back on defense so improving on last yrs 29.3 points/game allowed should be easy. The schedule is not so kind with OOC games at Miami(FL) and Cinci and home games vs. WVU and New Hampshire. I stated earlier the goal of this program would be to go bowling but with 3 likely OOC losses there is little room for error in the conference. Marshall also draws Houston and Tulsa both on the road and Rice at home from the West Division. They also must travel to Memphis which is a revenge game for Memphis and face an improving UCF team who beat them last yr in their new stadium. The schedule is difficult for them but a bowl game is do able. They key to getting back to the bowls is to 1)establish the running game, 2)cut down on turnovers, Marshall was -9 last yr, 3)improve on defense in both scoring
and passing.
UAB (3-9):
The Blazers fell on hard times last yr and struggled on offense badly. They also took some hits in the off season to an already inexperienced defense. To be short here, UAB is going to have a very very tough season this yr. On both offense and defense they return 4 starters however with a recent defect in the off season, the defense only returns 3 starters. In 2006 the offense averaged just 18.8 points/game. They did use different QB's last yr but in a ratio of 2:1 and the QB who represents the 1 is back. His numbers are not that encouraging in limited snaps (48-82, 58.5%, 655yds, 2TD-5int) and he also represents a returning starter so really this unit could be said to have 3 starters back as well. It will be Sam Hunt's job to lose but he will have to battle with Joseph Hunt who had success in limited appearances. If the offense struggles like I think it will you will see a lot of both QB's. At the RB position they lose their top 3 rushers from 2006, none of them eclipsed 500 yards. The leading returning rusher is the QB, Sam Hunt and the 2nd leading rusher is the backup QB, Joseph Hunt. This position is pretty weak. At WR they lost their 4 of their top 5 including their leading receiver, they do return their #2 who picked up 400 yards on 31 receptions last yr. On the OL they return 2 of their 5 from last yr and lost 6 of the top 10 from 2006. As you can see, there is a lot of inexperience on offense and add in the fact they have a new HC and must learn a new offensive scheme, its very unlikely they can top last years 18.8 points/game. On defense they return just 3 starters now from what was an OK defense (24.8 points/game). The DL must replace 2 of their 4 starters and had 2 back up players leave the team, they lost 6 of their top 8 and really have no depth or size with an average weight of 245-250. At LB they return 1 starter from last yr but they do have 3 players back with starting experience. Maybe the deepest position on the team and that is not saying much. At DB they have 1 starter back, their top cover corner, but they don't have a lot of depth here either. Last yr the DB's gave up 213yds/game vs. the pass and allowed QB's to complete 63.1% of passes. Overall it would be very tough for UAB to maintain the 24.8 points/game they allowed in 2006, this yr it will creep close to 30. The OOC schedule is not very nice with 2 straight games on the road to open the yr vs. MSU and FSU. They get Alcorn St at home and then must travel to Miss St. The conference schedule is tough as well with games at Tulsa, Houston at home, So Miss at home, at Memphis, at Marshall, at ECU. UAB is in a world of trouble this yr and likely will be the worst team in CUSA..Getting back to 3 wins will be a lot harder than most think with the only given vs. Alcorn St and even that might be a battle. UAB has no experience anywhere, they have a new HC with new schemes, and they lost 27 seniors from the 2006 team. There is likely very little leadership, something that is important for a team but is often overlooked.
East Division Predicted order of finish:
1)So Miss - The class of this side of the conference, plain and simple.
2)Memphis & UCF - Both have their question marks but both should be able to improve on their 2006 seasons.
4)ECU - Losing your QB-RB-WR is a hell of a combo and the QB was a 4yr starter so there will be some bumps in the road but they have a pretty solid defense and that should keep them in most games.
5)Marshall - I just don't think on offense they can replace the production of Bradshaw and the passing game isn't all that impressive to start with. The defense which gave up nearly 30points/game should improve but not more more than 4-5 points which I am not sure is enough to make up for their lack of production on offense. Add in a tough schedule as well.
6)UAB - They are by far the worst team in the conference and I would take an O/U of 3 wins on them right now and take the under. They just lost wayyyyyyy too much to have any kind of success under a 1st yr head coach. They return 33 lettermen and lost 31, including 27 seniors.
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