Conference Championship Week

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Hi All. I've had a hard time getting traction on these games in past years, so I decided not to do any "official" writeups this year. I've got some thoughts on the games, but they resemble "gun to head" scenarios more than clear sides I'm sold on.

For the record, the write ups went 93-85(.5224) with some pushes. Not good, but it could have been worse I suppose.

If you have any games you'd like to discuss, I'll gladly give you my opinion, but that's about all I can offer this week.

As for the bowls, I'm hoping to do at least a small write up on all the games, and then more robust ones on the games I plan to take a position on. I hope everyone has a great week!

Thanks as always for the participation in the thread this year.
 
I think we get Tulane cheap OTR. Cold weather a bit of a concern so I’m skiddish.
I was disappointed in effort last week by Tulane which is something I didn’t think I’d say.

Thoughts?
 
I think we get Tulane cheap OTR. Cold weather a bit of a concern so I’m skiddish.
I was disappointed in effort last week by Tulane which is something I didn’t think I’d say.

Thoughts?
Tough to go against Army, who are 42-8 SU here since '17, including 6-0 ty. Plus, they don't have to win to cash getting +5.

Also, HC Sumrall is a prime target for another job, which could be a distraction.

"Jeff Duncan, a sports columnist for Nola.com, believes that the Tar Heels are now focused on Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall. You can read his story here."
 
Think Sumrall to UK makes much more sense. Big thing for me this week is that Sumrall has a great history vs the options (beat Navy 35-0 this year; beat Army at Troy both prior years, 19-0 and 10-9). Am a little concerned with Tulane playing in the cold at West Point - no real cold-weather history on Tulane/Sumrall Troy teams.
 
Think Sumrall to UK makes much more sense. Big thing for me this week is that Sumrall has a great history vs the options (beat Navy 35-0 this year; beat Army at Troy both prior years, 19-0 and 10-9). Am a little concerned with Tulane playing in the cold at West Point - no real cold-weather history on Tulane/Sumrall Troy teams.
Exactly all around
 
Think Sumrall to UK makes much more sense. Big thing for me this week is that Sumrall has a great history vs the options (beat Navy 35-0 this year; beat Army at Troy both prior years, 19-0 and 10-9). Am a little concerned with Tulane playing in the cold at West Point - no real cold-weather history on Tulane/Sumrall Troy teams.
I'm seeing low of 44 with no real wind. I would hope that is not a problem https://weather.com/weather/tenday/...f522bd7982aa771530c987d23552bafa01778757dc378
 
I'm seeing low of 44 with no real wind. I would hope that is not a problem https://weather.com/weather/tenday/...f522bd7982aa771530c987d23552bafa01778757dc378

If the low is 44 you gotta be a straight up pussy for that to affect you! Although I will say back in my younger days when I was going to Houston and then the El Paso/juarez boarder it be like 50s and I’m walking around in shorts while all these cats be bundled up like they were in a snow storm up north! So it kinda hard to day! Say. To me 44 is beautiful football whether!
 
Tough to go against Army, who are 42-8 SU here since '17, including 6-0 ty. Plus, they don't have to win to cash getting +5.

Also, HC Sumrall is a prime target for another job, which could be a distraction.

"Jeff Duncan, a sports columnist for Nola.com, believes that the Tar Heels are now focused on Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall. You can read his story here."
Sumrall and Craddock both in the throws of inquiries.

Always a tough situation for a team.
 
Thought I read somewhere Tulane is something like 11-0 as a road fav but not sure where I saw it. I’m leaning Tulane as they seem to have a grasp on how to defend the army style offense, but think I will sit this one out and just enjoy it.
 
Thought I read somewhere Tulane is something like 11-0 as a road fav but not sure where I saw it. I’m leaning Tulane as they seem to have a grasp on how to defend the army style offense, but think I will sit this one out and just enjoy it.
Yeah, Sumrall is.

5-0 as a road favorite this year at Tulane
4-0 last year at Troy
2-0 in 2022 at Troy.

11-0, perfect in his career as a road favorite. The guy is 32-7 straight up as a HC.

As for this game, for that reason stated above, I can't see fading that. But man, that line is a little too high for me. If this was 3 or something like that, I think I could justify a play on Tulane. Big strength of schedule edge for Tulane and they're a major upgrade offensively compared to what Army has played against other than ND. Weather is going to be below freezing, not a ton of wind. Tulane can throw it well on a per play basis but they don't throw it much and would rather run it with Hughes. Tulane not great against the run so Daily might be able to sustain some drives. For me, I expect Tulane to win(unless they aren't in a good headspace, which is possible considering where they could be in this game had they taken care of business last week). It's a no play for me, but if both teams are at their best in this one, I would expect a Tulane win and cover. Sumrall is as buttoned up as they get, and he's had no issues with service academies in his tenures. He held Navy to 113 total yards a couple weeks ago in a 35-0 smackdown, and beat Army in back to back games the two years before that 19-0 and 10-9. He hasn't been confused by those offenses, I think it's safe to say.
 
I think we get Tulane cheap OTR. Cold weather a bit of a concern so I’m skiddish.
I was disappointed in effort last week by Tulane which is something I didn’t think I’d say.

Thoughts?
See above Twink, but I'd agree. the headspace situation and Army's resourcefulness getting this many points in a cold weather low possession game is what's keeping me off this one. Would never fade Sumrall in this spot however for a myriad of reasons^^^^^^^
 
Jax State and WKU I'm staying away from too. They played last week, but Jax State didn't have a vested interest in the outcome, so it's hard to use that game as a starting point for capping this one. Qb Tyler Huff hurt his ankle n the 3rd quarter of that game and didn't return. Logan Smothers came in, and he's similar to Huff in style, just not as good as a runner. They also didn't use their top RB Tre Stewart late in the game, and WKU ended up kicking a 50+ yard FG to win it. I'm surprised Jax State didn't run it better in the game because the Jax rush offense against the WKU rush defense looks like a total mismatch on paper. We might see the real deal on that front today.

Having said that, we don't know for sure that Huff is playing, and I don't like going against Veldkamp for WKU, who has been really good in big games. WKU will probably for sure move the ball, but they've been bad in the red zone. If they have to kick a lot of FGs like they did Saturday, they better get stops on that Jax State running game. I 4 isn't much if you're taking a road dog that figures to get run over on the ground, but Veldkamp is resourceful, so I'm on the sidelines.
 
The Mountain West game is really interesting, but the line movement is annoying as hell if you want to make a play. I'm sitting out because I have a +750 future ticket on UNLV to win the MW, but the fact that this line has gotten to 4.5 in my outs is keeping me from hedging it.

As for line value, it would seem to be on Boise's side. They were a 4 point favorite AT UNLV back in October or whenever, and they covered it. Now they are a 4/4.5 favorite at home on the blue turf. However, who would fade UNLV as a road dog? or a road team in general? Not me, I can guaran-fuckin-tee that. 10-2 ATS overall on the road since Odom has been there and 6-0 as a road dog. Also, they had a positive win expectancy in that first meeting despite losing by 5. They did a great job against Jeanty in that game(although Dirk Koetter hinted in his press conference that Jeanty missed some chances to break long ones that he usually doesn't in that game), and we have to acknowledge that Boise has had some underwhelming performances lately: Nevada by 7, escaped SJSU and only snuck by Wyoming 17-13. Gun to head, despite the perceived line value, I would be taking the 4.5 with UNLV here because it's probably going to be close. I'll likely just end up rooting for my future and that's it because I'd hate to have a double dip if Boise wins and covers. I lean to UNLV plus the points though if I was coming into this with a clean slate.
 
Thought I read somewhere Tulane is something like 11-0 as a road fav but not sure where I saw it. I’m leaning Tulane as they seem to have a grasp on how to defend the army style offense, but think I will sit this one out and just enjoy it.

The only thing that scares me in the slightest bout Tulane was losing last week, it so hard to say how down they are giving their chance at playoff away? Then again army biggest game is next week. Thru out the situational crap (which I’m really really bad at!) and this a green wave play all day imo.
 
Can't hate any of those. At all.

Boise secondary can be had. No doubt.

Gotta worry bout Boise getting sacks but Williams ran for over 100 on them the 1st meeting. To me it seems like even tho Boise won that game they the ones who need to make the adjustments, I can’t believe they will keep going after qb with hair on fire letting him get out and run all over them, if they slow down the pass rush to protect against him running like you said that secondary will get cooked! They could spy but they already have to give white extra attention or he will cook them, their only so many players on the field and I think rebs offense presents a lot more problems than Boise where you just keep Jeanty from running wild and you in pretty good shape unless madson has the Game of his life, his numbers not all that flattering for a dude who should bs throwing against stacked boxes all the time! If he beats me I’ll tip my cap and pound the quack attack 2marro. Lol. Even in Boise I feel like the rematch heavily favors the more versatile team not to mention just the X factor of them practicing all week knowing they got beat the 1st time, It all says Rebs to me except maybe the fact Boise is a lot more used to big games.
 
Yeah, Sumrall is.

5-0 as a road favorite this year at Tulane
4-0 last year at Troy
2-0 in 2022 at Troy.

11-0, perfect in his career as a road favorite. The guy is 32-7 straight up as a HC.

As for this game, for that reason stated above, I can't see fading that. But man, that line is a little too high for me. If this was 3 or something like that, I think I could justify a play on Tulane. Big strength of schedule edge for Tulane and they're a major upgrade offensively compared to what Army has played against other than ND. Weather is going to be below freezing, not a ton of wind. Tulane can throw it well on a per play basis but they don't throw it much and would rather run it with Hughes. Tulane not great against the run so Daily might be able to sustain some drives. For me, I expect Tulane to win(unless they aren't in a good headspace, which is possible considering where they could be in this game had they taken care of business last week). It's a no play for me, but if both teams are at their best in this one, I would expect a Tulane win and cover. Sumrall is as buttoned up as they get, and he's had no issues with service academies in his tenures. He held Navy to 113 total yards a couple weeks ago in a 35-0 smackdown, and beat Army in back to back games the two years before that 19-0 and 10-9. He hasn't been confused by those offenses, I think it's safe to say.
Yeah I decided to lay off as Tulane should win by 7+ but man something just tells me it may be closer so not worth it in my view. Like Jax State and Boise both more than Tulane at this line, so not gonna force it. Best of luck this weekend man.
 
I think we get Tulane cheap OTR. Cold weather a bit of a concern so I’m skiddish.
I was disappointed in effort last week by Tulane which is something I didn’t think I’d say.

Thoughts?
Is Sumrall possibly distracted by job offers?
 
If the low is 44 you gotta be a straight up pussy for that to affect you! Although I will say back in my younger days when I was going to Houston and then the El Paso/juarez boarder it be like 50s and I’m walking around in shorts while all these cats be bundled up like they were in a snow storm up north! So it kinda hard to day! Say. To me 44 is beautiful football whether!
Times have changed. In Dallas, we got our first freeze today, and the middle school kids are still wearing shorts to school.
 
Yeah, Sumrall is.

5-0 as a road favorite this year at Tulane
4-0 last year at Troy
2-0 in 2022 at Troy.

11-0, perfect in his career as a road favorite. The guy is 32-7 straight up as a HC.

As for this game, for that reason stated above, I can't see fading that. But man, that line is a little too high for me. If this was 3 or something like that, I think I could justify a play on Tulane. Big strength of schedule edge for Tulane and they're a major upgrade offensively compared to what Army has played against other than ND. Weather is going to be below freezing, not a ton of wind. Tulane can throw it well on a per play basis but they don't throw it much and would rather run it with Hughes. Tulane not great against the run so Daily might be able to sustain some drives. For me, I expect Tulane to win(unless they aren't in a good headspace, which is possible considering where they could be in this game had they taken care of business last week). It's a no play for me, but if both teams are at their best in this one, I would expect a Tulane win and cover. Sumrall is as buttoned up as they get, and he's had no issues with service academies in his tenures. He held Navy to 113 total yards a couple weeks ago in a 35-0 smackdown, and beat Army in back to back games the two years before that 19-0 and 10-9. He hasn't been confused by those offenses, I think it's safe to say.
He's 19-2 ATS when he's not a home favorite. Unreal.
 
If the low is 44 you gotta be a straight up pussy for that to affect you! Although I will say back in my younger days when I was going to Houston and then the El Paso/juarez boarder it be like 50s and I’m walking around in shorts while all these cats be bundled up like they were in a snow storm up north! So it kinda hard to day! Say. To me 44 is beautiful football whether!
You might not understand I can't get wood when the temp is below 70
 
I would have been comfortable making a -2 bet on ASU in the Big 12 game against Iowa State if Jordyn Tyson was playing, but he's not, and I think he is worth quite a bit of value to the spread. He's been extremely important to them in the passing game, and when I say that, It's an understatement. Leavitt goes to him in every tough spot, and especially on 3rd down. He had 75 catches on the year, along with 1,000+ yards and 10 TDs. The second highest WR on the team in receptions is Xavier Guillory with 17. Tyson has twice as many catches as the rest of their wide receivers combined and the same goes for yards. Other than swing passes to Skattebo, he IS their passing game. As a result, the ASU offense will probably be very run heavy with both Skattebo and Leavitt, which should allow a weak Iowa State run defense to be able to use more resources to shut down the run. ASU has been solid on defense, but this is the bet group of receivers(especially Noel and Higgins) the Sun Devils will face. Ultimately, this seems more like Arizona State's year rather than Iowa States, but the Tyson injury has me nervous about the Sun Devil offense. No play for me.
 
Times have changed. In Dallas, we got our first freeze today, and the middle school kids are still wearing shorts to school.
Isn’t it hilarious? We were just talking about how it’s still a thing. Why do we even buy the long school pants hahsbs
 
Looking at this MAC game, when you look at the season long numbers for each team, it might sway you in Ohio's favor. The Bobcats ran the ball great all year and should have some success against Miami's run D, which was very solid against weak MAC rushing attacks but got gashed when they stepped up in class. Also, a strength of Ohio is their performance on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, and that's a major weakness for Miami, who were shaky on 3rd down on defense and flat out stunk(122nd) on 3rd down on offense. When you notice these things, it might have you tiptoe-ing over to the Ohio side to take the points. Then you look at the box score from the time they played each other earlier in the year. Wow. It was never really a game, and Miami easily manipulated Ohio QB Parker Navarro into the behavior that led him to get benched several times this year. He couldn't run effectively, and when that happened, he threw 2 picks within a 13-22 performance for only 88 yards. Miami on the contrary, did whatever they wanted on offense. It was 30-6 until Ohio scored a couple garbage time TDs in the last 5 minutes. Navarro for the year had a 10/10 ratio, so he's prone to bonehead mistakes, and Miami is the kind of team that does that to people, so his first disaster against them probably wasn't a fluke. So to sum up, there's a lot in the numbers to suggest a shot on taking the points with Ohio, but I can't imagine Ohio can make such a 180 against this Miami team, especially with a QB who doesn't elicit any confidence.
 
My opinion on the Texas/Georgia game is pretty much the same from a handicapping perspective as the previous one was: Georgia has been telling us with their play that they aren't an elite team, and Texas, although they have limited data points to prove they're elite themselves, should be good enough on both sides to exploit Georgia. In the first game, however, they didn't even sniff exploiting Georgia, despite Carson Beck looking as bad in that game as he did in any game, and that's bad. I'm guessing that Texas bounces back and has a better performance, but who can trust that after watching these two the first time. I think Kirby Smart knows how to handle Ewers...probably just attack him with aggressive pass rushes like they did last time. If I knew Arch Manning was going to be a major part of the game plan and we'd see less Ewers, I'd maybe lay a couple here, but I'm sitting it out.
 
Looking at this MAC game, when you look at the season long numbers for each team, it might sway you in Ohio's favor. The Bobcats ran the ball great all year and should have some success against Miami's run D, which was very solid against weak MAC rushing attacks but got gashed when they stepped up in class. Also, a strength of Ohio is their performance on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, and that's a major weakness for Miami, who were shaky on 3rd down on defense and flat out stunk(122nd) on 3rd down on offense. When you notice these things, it might have you tiptoe-ing over to the Ohio side to take the points. Then you look at the box score from the time they played each other earlier in the year. Wow. It was never really a game, and Miami easily manipulated Ohio QB Parker Navarro into the behavior that led him to get benched several times this year. He couldn't run effectively, and when that happened, he threw 2 picks within a 13-22 performance for only 88 yards. Miami on the contrary, did whatever they wanted on offense. It was 30-6 until Ohio scored a couple garbage time TDs in the last 5 minutes. Navarro for the year had a 10/10 ratio, so he's prone to bonehead mistakes, and Miami is the kind of team that does that to people, so his first disaster against them probably wasn't a fluke. So to sum up, there's a lot in the numbers to suggest a shot on taking the points with Ohio, but I can't imagine Ohio can make such a 180 against this Miami team, especially with a QB who doesn't elicit any confidence.

I have Ohio futures, but was hoping to face BG and not Miami. That was a beat down 1st game. Ohio not built to come from behind. Agree with your points here.
 
Well I got my ass kicked yesterday, I shoulda damn known boise would be part this 1st playoff and Rebs pussies would freeze in the cold. I capped the game line it was gonna be same as inside in dome which was clearly stupid. I always loved playing football in cold so I have to be careful to recognize that ain’t the case for some these overpaid pampered babies!

All I know today is ducks a huge play for me, can anyone really tell me with a straight face pen st is nearly as good as the ducks? Pen st and IU the same frauds pen st is every year, they beat a bunch of 6-6 teams. Struggle with a few of them, and end their season losing to the only top 10 teams they face! Now they get to see ducks in a dome on a fast track, what area does pen st hold an edge? Ducks offense is clearly light years better, their coach is better, even their d that doesn’t get talked about is better! Unless ducks just don’t care bout this game I don’t see them losing, I’d think they want to win big10 in 1st year plus the bye! Give me ducks 🦆 quack attack al day, I can’t get over only having to lay -3, that is just wrong imo.
 
I would have been comfortable making a -2 bet on ASU in the Big 12 game against Iowa State if Jordyn Tyson was playing, but he's not, and I think he is worth quite a bit of value to the spread. He's been extremely important to them in the passing game, and when I say that, It's an understatement. Leavitt goes to him in every tough spot, and especially on 3rd down. He had 75 catches on the year, along with 1,000+ yards and 10 TDs. The second highest WR on the team in receptions is Xavier Guillory with 17. Tyson has twice as many catches as the rest of their wide receivers combined and the same goes for yards. Other than swing passes to Skattebo, he IS their passing game. As a result, the ASU offense will probably be very run heavy with both Skattebo and Leavitt, which should allow a weak Iowa State run defense to be able to use more resources to shut down the run. ASU has been solid on defense, but this is the bet group of receivers(especially Noel and Higgins) the Sun Devils will face. Ultimately, this seems more like Arizona State's year rather than Iowa States, but the Tyson injury has me nervous about the Sun Devil offense. No play for me.

This game so tough, I agree without their weapon on outside this a big problem for asu but I do think skattebo should run all over this 3-3-5 isu plays. I grabbed him over 116.5 rushing last night. I dunno if asu corners can stop these isu wrs tho? Played higgens ov 79.5 last night! No clue who wins, you right it just feels like asu year but this injury huge and I am a Rocco bect fan even tho he has put up a few stinkers on me I think he is able to push ball down the field today cause asu gets no pass rush at all, to me that could be deciding factor, those 2 WRs are too good to give bect time to sit back and wait for them to get open, no corners regardless of talent can cover these dudes for 4-5 seconds! 3rd down and red zone favor isu also.
 
Looking at this MAC game, when you look at the season long numbers for each team, it might sway you in Ohio's favor. The Bobcats ran the ball great all year and should have some success against Miami's run D, which was very solid against weak MAC rushing attacks but got gashed when they stepped up in class. Also, a strength of Ohio is their performance on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, and that's a major weakness for Miami, who were shaky on 3rd down on defense and flat out stunk(122nd) on 3rd down on offense. When you notice these things, it might have you tiptoe-ing over to the Ohio side to take the points. Then you look at the box score from the time they played each other earlier in the year. Wow. It was never really a game, and Miami easily manipulated Ohio QB Parker Navarro into the behavior that led him to get benched several times this year. He couldn't run effectively, and when that happened, he threw 2 picks within a 13-22 performance for only 88 yards. Miami on the contrary, did whatever they wanted on offense. It was 30-6 until Ohio scored a couple garbage time TDs in the last 5 minutes. Navarro for the year had a 10/10 ratio, so he's prone to bonehead mistakes, and Miami is the kind of team that does that to people, so his first disaster against them probably wasn't a fluke. So to sum up, there's a lot in the numbers to suggest a shot on taking the points with Ohio, but I can't imagine Ohio can make such a 180 against this Miami team, especially with a QB who doesn't elicit any confidence.
"I can't imagine Ohio can make such a 180 against this Miami team, especially with a QB who doesn't elicit any confidence."

Narrator: They did. And the QB should have elicited confidence.
 
Well I got my ass kicked yesterday, I shoulda damn known boise would be part this 1st playoff and Rebs pussies would freeze in the cold. I capped the game line it was gonna be same as inside in dome which was clearly stupid. I always loved playing football in cold so I have to be careful to recognize that ain’t the case for some these overpaid pampered babies!

All I know today is ducks a huge play for me, can anyone really tell me with a straight face pen st is nearly as good as the ducks? Pen st and IU the same frauds pen st is every year, they beat a bunch of 6-6 teams. Struggle with a few of them, and end their season losing to the only top 10 teams they face! Now they get to see ducks in a dome on a fast track, what area does pen st hold an edge? Ducks offense is clearly light years better, their coach is better, even their d that doesn’t get talked about is better! Unless ducks just don’t care bout this game I don’t see them losing, I’d think they want to win big10 in 1st year plus the bye! Give me ducks 🦆 quack attack al day, I can’t get over only having to lay -3, that is just wrong imo.
Devil's advocate:

Per Sagarin: Strength of schedule: Penn State 54 Oregon 58.

I can only find one area where Penn State has an edge (Oregon run offense vs Penn State run defense), but the only area with a clear edge for Oregon is special teams and maybe 3rd down when Oregon's on offense. That's pretty much it. Franklin is affectionately known as "small game James" but has Lanning won any big games? And is this really a big game? Both are in regardless, and you can make a decent(not great) case that the 5th seed might be a preferable path than the 1.

Penn State defense is heck of a lot better than the Wisconsin defense that held Oregon to 16. I don't think Penn State is going to have much success on offense, but it might be a pretty low scoring game which would make the 3.5 valuable.

Having said all that, I tend to look at it like you do: Can we really see Penn State sacking up under Franklin and securing what might be the top seed? It seems unlikely based on what he's conditioned us to expect when the competition ramps up.
 
I lean to SMU in the ACC game, but not really enough to have a recommendation on it. The SMU defense has proven themselves to very good defensively, much like they were last year. Their strength is against the run, and that's what Clemson want to do, but we'll see if Klubnik can have a couple nice downfield throwing games in row, as I thought he looked good against South Carolina. If SMU keeps everything in front of them, we might see a repeat of Clemson's offensive performance in the Louisville game unless Clemson's staff has adjusted. We'll also see if Breshard Smith can get going on the ground for SMU. He's been great lately, and you can make a case that Clemson's Achilles Heel was stopping the run.

IMO SMU better win because it seems the committee is angling to keep them out if they lose this one despite an undefeated conference record.
 
Devil's advocate:

Per Sagarin: Strength of schedule: Penn State 54 Oregon 58.

I can only find one area where Penn State has an edge (Oregon run offense vs Penn State run defense), but the only area with a clear edge for Oregon is special teams and maybe 3rd down when Oregon's on offense. That's pretty much it. Franklin is affectionately known as "small game James" but has Lanning won any big games? And is this really a big game? Both are in regardless, and you can make a decent(not great) case that the 5th seed might be a preferable path than the 1.

Penn State defense is heck of a lot better than the Wisconsin defense that held Oregon to 16. I don't think Penn State is going to have much success on offense, but it might be a pretty low scoring game which would make the 3.5 valuable.

Having said all that, I tend to look at it like you do: Can we really see Penn State sacking up under Franklin and securing what might be the top seed? It seems unlikely based on what he's conditioned us to expect when the competition ramps up.

It was way way closer than I thought but we got the cash!
 
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