Commanders vs. Lions NFC Divisional Round Betting Preview
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
Saturday, January 18, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Ford Field
The High Total
Of all the games this weekend, even Buffalo vs. Baltimore, Washington vs. Detroit has the highest over/under.
It is difficult for even the best offenses to combine for over 50 points in a game.
When Washington and Baltimore met in Week 6, key offensive players had great games, and yet the two teams barely combined for over 50 points. They scored 53.
Scoring over 50 points means sustaining enough long drives that end in touchdowns and/or hitting enough big plays for quick points.
Obviously, quick points help any "over." But one of my points here is that a higher total creates a greater need for quicker scores to take place.
Washington's Defense
This greater need for quicker scores is something that Washington's defense reliably prevents opposing offenses from satisfying. The Commanders do a great job of preventing quick scores.
They have shown this season that they force opponents to run a lot of plays per touchdown and that they prevent opponents from scoring touchdowns in few plays.
In their first playoff game, their opponent Tampa Bay had two touchdown drives. Those drives spanned seven and ten plays, respectively.
Tampa Bay has the fourth-best scoring offense, but it failed to exceed 20 points against Washington's defense in large part because it needed so many plays, and hence so much time, to reach the end zone twice.
Detroit's Ball Control
Detroit is going to have no problem possessing the ball for long stretches of time against Washington's defense.
The Lions are one of the best teams at dominating time of possession in large part because of their elite rush attack, which ranks number five in rushing yards per game and ninth in yards per carry.
Opposing teams run against the Commanders at the third-highest rate because it is so easy to run against them and running the ball is safer than throwing it.
In Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the Lions have perhaps the best running back duo in the league. They run behind arguably the top run-blocking unit.
Detroit's head coach has confirmed that Montgomery is slated to return to action, so the Lions will have their thunder and lightning duo again.
Facing Washington's 27th-ranked run defense, the Lions won't need to pass much.
Washington's Short-Play Game
Washington's offense will need to pass more, but it will need to complete more short passes.
In Washington's game against Tampa Bay last week, we saw the creativity of Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
Screens, quick passes, well-timed plays for his running backs, and creative run-play designs for Daniels enabled Washington to sustain drives.
The short gains helped keep Washington from exceeding 20 points, until its end-of-game field goal, by taking a lot of time off the clock.
Washington is going to need long drives in order to give its defense, that Detroit's run-oriented offense will threaten to wear down, needed breaks.
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels anyhow does a terrible job of completing deep passes — he ranks 29th in deep ball completion percentage — so he needs to create shorter gains.
Detroit's Solid Run Defense
But the Commanders will struggle to sustain drives.
Their running backs have been awful.
In Brian Robinson Jr.'s last two games, he has combined for 26 rushing yards on 15 carries.
Fellow running back Austin Ekeler hasn't been much better.
Washington's running backs have had modest success, recently, against statistically lower-ranked run defenses. But Detroit's run defense ranks fourth.
Detroit's Man-Heavy Defense
Unable to count on his running backs, Washington's quarterback will need to be his team's best source of offense.
But Daniels will struggle against Detroit's pass defense because the Lions employ man coverage at one of the highest rates.
Whereas Daniels ranks first in completion percentage and fourth in passer rating against zone, he ranks 15th in completion percentage and 19th in passer rating against man.
Detroit's Talent on Defense
In recent times, the Lions have been beat up on defense, creating in bettors the sense that they will automatically give up a lot of points.
But we saw how important the return of captain Alex Anzalone was to his defense when the Lions held Minnesota to a season-low nine points in Week 18.
His communication and direction on defense are critical. More concretely, he is also needed for his run-stopping and coverage abilities.
In terms of DVOA, Detroit's defense ranked second before his injury and 31st while he was injured.
Other key defenders for Detroit include Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, who per PFF are two of the highest-graded safeties largely due to their coverage skills. They will help force Daniels to fail to complete a lot of passes.
With guys like Anzalone fit and other linebackers like Jack Campbell growing, the Lions have put together historical performances against opposing running backs, such as when they held Houston's Joe Mixon to 46 rushing yards on 25 carries.
The talent is there, healthy, to lock down Washington's pass attack and running backs.
My Favorite Prop Bet
Detroit gives up a lot of rushing yards to mobile quarterbacks.
Indianapolis' Anthony Richardson amassed 61 yards, his second-highest rushing total of the season, against the Lions.
Kyler Murray of Arizona ran for 45 yards against them.
The Lions are vulnerable to the rushing potential of opposing mobile quarterbacks because of their preference for man coverage.
Washington's quarterback has taken advantage, with his legs, of man coverage.
Against the team that runs the second-most Cover 1 (a form of man coverage), Cleveland, Daniels ran for 82 yards.
Detroit is the only team that runs more Cover-1 than Cleveland.
Parlay
But Detroit with its running back duo and elite offensive line will be far superior to Washington's rush attack, which will depend entirely on Daniels.
The Lions' pass attack will be even more superior to the Commanders' passing game.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff has excelled in the game following his last two bye weeks — against the Cowboys this year and the Chargers last year, respectively — so he won't be rusty, nor will his teammates be rusty.
He will have an easy time thanks to Gibbs and Montgomery, who will make play-action be maximally effective by forcing Washington's defense to respect their rushing prowess.
Goff ranks number-one in play-action completion percentage. So he is well-built to exploit a Washington pass defense that ranks 23rd in limiting opposing passer rating.
Takeaway
Last week was Washington's only win this season against a playoff team, and it was a playoff team that had suffered several bad losses during the regular season and lacked impressive wins.
11 of Washington's 13 wins this year came against teams that rank below .500. It also lost to the Cowboys and barely beat the Giants at home and the backup-laden Saints.
The Commanders are simply not well-proven and not very good, whereas Detroit is the top seed for good reason after pounding Minnesota.
More than being the better team, the matchup suits them very well. The Lions will thrive on the ground and via play-action, whereas Washington's running backs and pass attack will be ineffective.
Long drives featuring the need of both teams — Detroit with Gibbs and Montgomery and Washington with Daniels — to rely on running the ball and Washington's offensive struggles, which include Daniels' struggles on deep balls and against man coverage in general, will keep the game low-scoring.
Best Bet: Parlay Lions ML at -550 & Under 55.5 at -110 at +125 with Bet365. Jayden Daniels over 54.5 rushing yards at -110 with Bet365
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
Saturday, January 18, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Ford Field
The High Total
Of all the games this weekend, even Buffalo vs. Baltimore, Washington vs. Detroit has the highest over/under.
It is difficult for even the best offenses to combine for over 50 points in a game.
When Washington and Baltimore met in Week 6, key offensive players had great games, and yet the two teams barely combined for over 50 points. They scored 53.
Scoring over 50 points means sustaining enough long drives that end in touchdowns and/or hitting enough big plays for quick points.
Obviously, quick points help any "over." But one of my points here is that a higher total creates a greater need for quicker scores to take place.
Washington's Defense
This greater need for quicker scores is something that Washington's defense reliably prevents opposing offenses from satisfying. The Commanders do a great job of preventing quick scores.
They have shown this season that they force opponents to run a lot of plays per touchdown and that they prevent opponents from scoring touchdowns in few plays.
In their first playoff game, their opponent Tampa Bay had two touchdown drives. Those drives spanned seven and ten plays, respectively.
Tampa Bay has the fourth-best scoring offense, but it failed to exceed 20 points against Washington's defense in large part because it needed so many plays, and hence so much time, to reach the end zone twice.
Detroit's Ball Control
Detroit is going to have no problem possessing the ball for long stretches of time against Washington's defense.
The Lions are one of the best teams at dominating time of possession in large part because of their elite rush attack, which ranks number five in rushing yards per game and ninth in yards per carry.
Opposing teams run against the Commanders at the third-highest rate because it is so easy to run against them and running the ball is safer than throwing it.
In Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the Lions have perhaps the best running back duo in the league. They run behind arguably the top run-blocking unit.
Detroit's head coach has confirmed that Montgomery is slated to return to action, so the Lions will have their thunder and lightning duo again.
Facing Washington's 27th-ranked run defense, the Lions won't need to pass much.
Washington's Short-Play Game
Washington's offense will need to pass more, but it will need to complete more short passes.
In Washington's game against Tampa Bay last week, we saw the creativity of Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
Screens, quick passes, well-timed plays for his running backs, and creative run-play designs for Daniels enabled Washington to sustain drives.
The short gains helped keep Washington from exceeding 20 points, until its end-of-game field goal, by taking a lot of time off the clock.
Washington is going to need long drives in order to give its defense, that Detroit's run-oriented offense will threaten to wear down, needed breaks.
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels anyhow does a terrible job of completing deep passes — he ranks 29th in deep ball completion percentage — so he needs to create shorter gains.
Detroit's Solid Run Defense
But the Commanders will struggle to sustain drives.
Their running backs have been awful.
In Brian Robinson Jr.'s last two games, he has combined for 26 rushing yards on 15 carries.
Fellow running back Austin Ekeler hasn't been much better.
Washington's running backs have had modest success, recently, against statistically lower-ranked run defenses. But Detroit's run defense ranks fourth.
Detroit's Man-Heavy Defense
Unable to count on his running backs, Washington's quarterback will need to be his team's best source of offense.
But Daniels will struggle against Detroit's pass defense because the Lions employ man coverage at one of the highest rates.
Whereas Daniels ranks first in completion percentage and fourth in passer rating against zone, he ranks 15th in completion percentage and 19th in passer rating against man.
Detroit's Talent on Defense
In recent times, the Lions have been beat up on defense, creating in bettors the sense that they will automatically give up a lot of points.
But we saw how important the return of captain Alex Anzalone was to his defense when the Lions held Minnesota to a season-low nine points in Week 18.
His communication and direction on defense are critical. More concretely, he is also needed for his run-stopping and coverage abilities.
In terms of DVOA, Detroit's defense ranked second before his injury and 31st while he was injured.
Other key defenders for Detroit include Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, who per PFF are two of the highest-graded safeties largely due to their coverage skills. They will help force Daniels to fail to complete a lot of passes.
With guys like Anzalone fit and other linebackers like Jack Campbell growing, the Lions have put together historical performances against opposing running backs, such as when they held Houston's Joe Mixon to 46 rushing yards on 25 carries.
The talent is there, healthy, to lock down Washington's pass attack and running backs.
My Favorite Prop Bet
Detroit gives up a lot of rushing yards to mobile quarterbacks.
Indianapolis' Anthony Richardson amassed 61 yards, his second-highest rushing total of the season, against the Lions.
Kyler Murray of Arizona ran for 45 yards against them.
The Lions are vulnerable to the rushing potential of opposing mobile quarterbacks because of their preference for man coverage.
Washington's quarterback has taken advantage, with his legs, of man coverage.
Against the team that runs the second-most Cover 1 (a form of man coverage), Cleveland, Daniels ran for 82 yards.
Detroit is the only team that runs more Cover-1 than Cleveland.
Parlay
But Detroit with its running back duo and elite offensive line will be far superior to Washington's rush attack, which will depend entirely on Daniels.
The Lions' pass attack will be even more superior to the Commanders' passing game.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff has excelled in the game following his last two bye weeks — against the Cowboys this year and the Chargers last year, respectively — so he won't be rusty, nor will his teammates be rusty.
He will have an easy time thanks to Gibbs and Montgomery, who will make play-action be maximally effective by forcing Washington's defense to respect their rushing prowess.
Goff ranks number-one in play-action completion percentage. So he is well-built to exploit a Washington pass defense that ranks 23rd in limiting opposing passer rating.
Takeaway
Last week was Washington's only win this season against a playoff team, and it was a playoff team that had suffered several bad losses during the regular season and lacked impressive wins.
11 of Washington's 13 wins this year came against teams that rank below .500. It also lost to the Cowboys and barely beat the Giants at home and the backup-laden Saints.
The Commanders are simply not well-proven and not very good, whereas Detroit is the top seed for good reason after pounding Minnesota.
More than being the better team, the matchup suits them very well. The Lions will thrive on the ground and via play-action, whereas Washington's running backs and pass attack will be ineffective.
Long drives featuring the need of both teams — Detroit with Gibbs and Montgomery and Washington with Daniels — to rely on running the ball and Washington's offensive struggles, which include Daniels' struggles on deep balls and against man coverage in general, will keep the game low-scoring.
Best Bet: Parlay Lions ML at -550 & Under 55.5 at -110 at +125 with Bet365. Jayden Daniels over 54.5 rushing yards at -110 with Bet365
