Commanders vs. Giants NFL Week 13 Betting Preview: Commanders Run Past Giants
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
The Odds
It is no revelation that both of these teams are rather lackluster offensively.
Both of them have struggling or at least statistically subpar quarterbacks and largely inefficient rush attacks.
But it would be unreasonable to play the "under" because both teams have "bad" offenses.
The odds already reflect the fact that both offenses are less productive than most other offenses.
I don't see value in the "under," because I think one team's offense -- Washington's -- will perform much more strongly than the other team's -- New York's.
Giant Run Defense
New York has one of the NFL's worst run defenses.
The Giants rank 26thin run defense as measured by opposing rush yards per game.
It is not just the case that the Giants struggle against top running backs or against balanced offenses.
When they faced a Cowboy team led by its backup quarterback, they surely knew to be extra prepared for Dallas' rush attack.
Nevertheless, Dallas' two running backs combined for 178 rushing yards on 28 carries.
In a similar vein, Houston, with its quarterback who is statistically awful on the road, was able to run on the Giants.
Texan running back Dameon Pierce ran for 94 yards on 17 carries.
Washington's Rush Attack
Again, the total is low for a reason. It's not like the Giants will allow 40 points.
But New York's poor run defense does a lot to dissuade me from playing the "under."
Washington already enjoys running the ball, especially in recent weeks.
The Commanders are developing a ball-control offense predicated on using an efficient rush attack to help tire out the opponent.
New York, given its poor run defense quality, is susceptible to what the Commanders want to do on offense.
Both Commander running backs, Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, can be effective while accruing 10-20 carries in a given game.
Most recently, both combined for 137 rushing yards on 27 carries against Atlanta.
While Gibson is less efficient as a runner than Robinson, he routinely does more to help his quarterback be an efficient passer.
Gibson has three receptions in each of his last three games.
Expected Point Total
During Washington's 6-1 SU run, the Commanders are also 6-0-1 ATS.
Impressively, the Commanders have been covering the spread at such a high rate even though they failed to reach 20 points in four of those seven games.
But New York is a team against which Washington can definitely score well over 20 points.
The Giants have fallen off defensively while facing offenses whose recipe for success Washington can replicate: the Commanders have multiple efficient running backs, a quarterback who doesn't mess up too much, and at least one dangerous wide receiver -- Terry McLaurin ranks eight in receiving yards.
My prediction is that the Commanders score 24 points.
Giant Quarterback Play
Supported by tremendous defensive line play, Washington's pass defense is by no means bad.
While trending upwards, the Commanders' pass defense has moved to a solid tenth.
Nevertheless, while cornerback Kendall Fuller is yielding an 83.5 passer rating when targeted, Washington's secondary is arguably its defensive weakness, especially with fellow cornerback Benjamin St. Juste listed as 'out.'
The Giants, though, are unequipped to take advantage of Washington's "weakness."
Daniel Jones, who ranks 20thin passing yards and 23rd in passing touchdowns, is just not the quarterback to pass his team into victory.
Giant Offensive Line Play
Running back Saquon Barkley is arguably the key to his offense's success.
But he is held back by massive issues with health and incompetence along the Giant offensive line.
Currently, New York has six offensive linemen listed on the injury report.
Left guard has been the most problematic position, but other positions have also been severely problematic.
New York's offensive line problems help explain why its offense ranks second-to-last at preventing sacks, which is not a problem that Washington shares.
Commander Run Defense
Led by a top-caliber duo in the interior of the defensive line, tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, Washington boasts one of the best run defenses.
The Commanders rank eighth at limiting opposing rushing yards.
Saquon has failed to reach 40 rushing yards in both of his last games while facing lower-ranked run defenses.
His offensive line lacks sufficient chemistry, especially right now, and it lacks sufficient quality to handle Washington's defensive line.
The Verdict
Expect Washington to do what it wants on offense against New York's vulnerable defense while the Giant offense struggles just to reach single digits.
I expect a 24-13 type Commander win. The total will be close, but the Commanders will definitely cover the spread.
Best Bet: Commanders -2.5 at -108 with Heritage
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
The Odds
It is no revelation that both of these teams are rather lackluster offensively.
Both of them have struggling or at least statistically subpar quarterbacks and largely inefficient rush attacks.
But it would be unreasonable to play the "under" because both teams have "bad" offenses.
The odds already reflect the fact that both offenses are less productive than most other offenses.
I don't see value in the "under," because I think one team's offense -- Washington's -- will perform much more strongly than the other team's -- New York's.
Giant Run Defense
New York has one of the NFL's worst run defenses.
The Giants rank 26thin run defense as measured by opposing rush yards per game.
It is not just the case that the Giants struggle against top running backs or against balanced offenses.
When they faced a Cowboy team led by its backup quarterback, they surely knew to be extra prepared for Dallas' rush attack.
Nevertheless, Dallas' two running backs combined for 178 rushing yards on 28 carries.
In a similar vein, Houston, with its quarterback who is statistically awful on the road, was able to run on the Giants.
Texan running back Dameon Pierce ran for 94 yards on 17 carries.
Washington's Rush Attack
Again, the total is low for a reason. It's not like the Giants will allow 40 points.
But New York's poor run defense does a lot to dissuade me from playing the "under."
Washington already enjoys running the ball, especially in recent weeks.
The Commanders are developing a ball-control offense predicated on using an efficient rush attack to help tire out the opponent.
New York, given its poor run defense quality, is susceptible to what the Commanders want to do on offense.
Both Commander running backs, Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, can be effective while accruing 10-20 carries in a given game.
Most recently, both combined for 137 rushing yards on 27 carries against Atlanta.
While Gibson is less efficient as a runner than Robinson, he routinely does more to help his quarterback be an efficient passer.
Gibson has three receptions in each of his last three games.
Expected Point Total
During Washington's 6-1 SU run, the Commanders are also 6-0-1 ATS.
Impressively, the Commanders have been covering the spread at such a high rate even though they failed to reach 20 points in four of those seven games.
But New York is a team against which Washington can definitely score well over 20 points.
The Giants have fallen off defensively while facing offenses whose recipe for success Washington can replicate: the Commanders have multiple efficient running backs, a quarterback who doesn't mess up too much, and at least one dangerous wide receiver -- Terry McLaurin ranks eight in receiving yards.
My prediction is that the Commanders score 24 points.
Giant Quarterback Play
Supported by tremendous defensive line play, Washington's pass defense is by no means bad.
While trending upwards, the Commanders' pass defense has moved to a solid tenth.
Nevertheless, while cornerback Kendall Fuller is yielding an 83.5 passer rating when targeted, Washington's secondary is arguably its defensive weakness, especially with fellow cornerback Benjamin St. Juste listed as 'out.'
The Giants, though, are unequipped to take advantage of Washington's "weakness."
Daniel Jones, who ranks 20thin passing yards and 23rd in passing touchdowns, is just not the quarterback to pass his team into victory.
Giant Offensive Line Play
Running back Saquon Barkley is arguably the key to his offense's success.
But he is held back by massive issues with health and incompetence along the Giant offensive line.
Currently, New York has six offensive linemen listed on the injury report.
Left guard has been the most problematic position, but other positions have also been severely problematic.
New York's offensive line problems help explain why its offense ranks second-to-last at preventing sacks, which is not a problem that Washington shares.
Commander Run Defense
Led by a top-caliber duo in the interior of the defensive line, tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, Washington boasts one of the best run defenses.
The Commanders rank eighth at limiting opposing rushing yards.
Saquon has failed to reach 40 rushing yards in both of his last games while facing lower-ranked run defenses.
His offensive line lacks sufficient chemistry, especially right now, and it lacks sufficient quality to handle Washington's defensive line.
The Verdict
Expect Washington to do what it wants on offense against New York's vulnerable defense while the Giant offense struggles just to reach single digits.
I expect a 24-13 type Commander win. The total will be close, but the Commanders will definitely cover the spread.
Best Bet: Commanders -2.5 at -108 with Heritage
