Commanders vs. Eagles NFC Championship Game Picks
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Jayden Daniels Has Had It Easy
Washington's quarterback is receiving a lot of hype for his statistically attractive performances in this postseason.
But we need to put his impressive-looking numbers in perspective if we are going to gain a stronger sense of what his outlook is against Philadelphia's defense this week.
My point here is that it does not follow from his postseason performances thus far that we should expect him to thrive on Sunday.
Tampa Bay, Washington's first opponent, has one of the lowest-ranking pass defenses.
Washington's next opponent, Detroit, has a ridiculous number of defenders sidelined, including its top pass rusher and its best cornerback in man coverage.
Daniels also benefited from the stupidity of Detroit's defense.
For example, 58 of Daniels' 299 passing yards came on a simple screen play that was able to turn into a touchdown because one of Detroit's defensive backs blitzed, which gave Daniels' wide receiver a numbers advantage and allowed him to follow his blockers and speed all the way to the end zone.
Vic Fangio's Stronger Pass Defense
Philadelphia is the best team at limiting the opposing team's passer rating.
The Eagles speed opposing quarterbacks up with their stacked pass rush and are strong in coverage.
On the bare surface, it seems that the Eagles run a lot of zone coverage and that, because Daniels has great numbers against zone, his outlook against the Eagles is positive.
But Fangio's zone is a zone match. Zone match is different from standard zone.
In a standard zone coverage, defensive backs are responsible for zones rather than for specific pass-catchers.
Conversely, defenders in a match zone might cover an opposing pass-catcher, as if it were man coverage, or they might let a teammate handle an opposing pass-catcher.
It is a flexible sort of defense that requires defenders to communicate well with each other, which is why Fangio's defenses often start a season slow.
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love, for example, thrives against zone in general, but he suffered a poor passer rating against the Eagles even in Week 1. His passer rating in the rematch was even worse.
Jayden Daniels Will Decline
Daniels finds it tough to play the Eagles even though he got to play them one time in Washington.
They are responsible for three of his nine interceptions this year.
He has struggled to be efficient or productive in his two games against them.
His yards-per-game average, completion percentage, and passer rating are significantly worse against the Eagles than they are on the season.
Washington's Point Total
So far in this postseason, Philadelphia has held Green Bay to ten points and the Rams to 22 points.
Point totals against the Eagles are commonly inflated because they tend to be too passive and too easy to attack late in games, as Atlanta, Baltimore, Washington, and most recently the Rams can confirm.
Philadelphia, for example, was up 24-12 against Baltimore before the Ravens scored a touchdown right at the very end of the game. It is extremely impressive that the Eagles could hold this elite offense to 19 points.
I don't see how Washington, which with its frequently struggling running backs also lacks Baltimore's rushing prowess, can exceed 19 points, because of how difficult it is for even the best quarterbacks to navigate Fangio's pass defense.
Jalen Hurts
Washington's Dan Quinn used to be known for running a zone-heavy defense.
While he still employs a good deal of Cover 3, which is a zone coverage, his defense is now man-heavy.
Running a lot of man coverage is a problem against Hurts, because he ranks fourth in both completion percentage and passer rating against pass defense.
But he'll also be just fine against a Washington defense that, as measured by EPA, struggles when it runs zone.
Saquon Barkley
But Hurts also won't need to do much because Washington's run defense is so bad.
The Commanders benefited from their strong offensive output last week, which forced Detroit's quarterback to have to pass more and to press, which led him to throw inaccurate passes and interceptions.
Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs amassed 105 rushing yards against Washington's low-ranking run defense. Gibbs needed all of 14 carries to reach this rushing total.
It would have been ideal if Gibbs could have run more.
Philadelphia's star running back, Saquon Barkley, will get to run more because of how solid the Eagles' top-ranked scoring defense is.
Barkley, who ran for 2,005 yards in the regular season, is arguably the NFL's top running back.
Philadelphia's offense thrives when Barkley thrives because defenses have to worry about containing him to some extent.
When Barkley exceeds 140 rushing yards, Philadelphia has scored at least 26 points six times in a row.
Not only is Barkley elite, but he also gets great blocks from Philadelphia's annually solid offensive line, which will have a huge advantage against Washington's defensive line, which so easily gets moved off the line of scrimmage and struggles to make contact with the opposing running back.
Takeaway
Facing a pass defense that does a poor job of limiting the opponent's passer rating, Hurts will use his elite All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown and several other effective targets to take what he can get.
He won't have to press much, as Saquon Barkley will have another fantastic performance, after running for 205 yards last week, against Washington's 30th-ranked run defense.
Washington will, like Baltimore, fail to reach 20 points against Philadelphia's top-caliber defense.
The Eagles' defensive backs are well-coordinated and are supported by a stacked pass rush.
Jayden Daniels won't have good running backs to support him, and he won't be able to carry his offense against coverages that are difficult for the best quarterbacks to navigate.
The Daniels hype is giving people an unrealistic sense of his abilities. He is a great rookie who has looked awesome against poor and beleaguered defenses, but this is where his team's run ends.
I could see Washington back-dooring the spread against a late-game lax Eagles defense, though.
Philadelphia used to start slow but has really emphasized starting fast. With Hurts, the Eagles have had their highest-scoring quarter be the first one in each of their last four games.
Let's go, therefore, with a first-quarter play on the Eagles and save the full-game money-line for our parlays.
Best Bet: Eagles First-Quarter -.5 at -110 with Bovada; Saquon Barkley Over 123.5 rushing yards at -110 with Bovada
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Jayden Daniels Has Had It Easy
Washington's quarterback is receiving a lot of hype for his statistically attractive performances in this postseason.
But we need to put his impressive-looking numbers in perspective if we are going to gain a stronger sense of what his outlook is against Philadelphia's defense this week.
My point here is that it does not follow from his postseason performances thus far that we should expect him to thrive on Sunday.
Tampa Bay, Washington's first opponent, has one of the lowest-ranking pass defenses.
Washington's next opponent, Detroit, has a ridiculous number of defenders sidelined, including its top pass rusher and its best cornerback in man coverage.
Daniels also benefited from the stupidity of Detroit's defense.
For example, 58 of Daniels' 299 passing yards came on a simple screen play that was able to turn into a touchdown because one of Detroit's defensive backs blitzed, which gave Daniels' wide receiver a numbers advantage and allowed him to follow his blockers and speed all the way to the end zone.
Vic Fangio's Stronger Pass Defense
Philadelphia is the best team at limiting the opposing team's passer rating.
The Eagles speed opposing quarterbacks up with their stacked pass rush and are strong in coverage.
On the bare surface, it seems that the Eagles run a lot of zone coverage and that, because Daniels has great numbers against zone, his outlook against the Eagles is positive.
But Fangio's zone is a zone match. Zone match is different from standard zone.
In a standard zone coverage, defensive backs are responsible for zones rather than for specific pass-catchers.
Conversely, defenders in a match zone might cover an opposing pass-catcher, as if it were man coverage, or they might let a teammate handle an opposing pass-catcher.
It is a flexible sort of defense that requires defenders to communicate well with each other, which is why Fangio's defenses often start a season slow.
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love, for example, thrives against zone in general, but he suffered a poor passer rating against the Eagles even in Week 1. His passer rating in the rematch was even worse.
Jayden Daniels Will Decline
Daniels finds it tough to play the Eagles even though he got to play them one time in Washington.
They are responsible for three of his nine interceptions this year.
He has struggled to be efficient or productive in his two games against them.
His yards-per-game average, completion percentage, and passer rating are significantly worse against the Eagles than they are on the season.
Washington's Point Total
So far in this postseason, Philadelphia has held Green Bay to ten points and the Rams to 22 points.
Point totals against the Eagles are commonly inflated because they tend to be too passive and too easy to attack late in games, as Atlanta, Baltimore, Washington, and most recently the Rams can confirm.
Philadelphia, for example, was up 24-12 against Baltimore before the Ravens scored a touchdown right at the very end of the game. It is extremely impressive that the Eagles could hold this elite offense to 19 points.
I don't see how Washington, which with its frequently struggling running backs also lacks Baltimore's rushing prowess, can exceed 19 points, because of how difficult it is for even the best quarterbacks to navigate Fangio's pass defense.
Jalen Hurts
Washington's Dan Quinn used to be known for running a zone-heavy defense.
While he still employs a good deal of Cover 3, which is a zone coverage, his defense is now man-heavy.
Running a lot of man coverage is a problem against Hurts, because he ranks fourth in both completion percentage and passer rating against pass defense.
But he'll also be just fine against a Washington defense that, as measured by EPA, struggles when it runs zone.
Saquon Barkley
But Hurts also won't need to do much because Washington's run defense is so bad.
The Commanders benefited from their strong offensive output last week, which forced Detroit's quarterback to have to pass more and to press, which led him to throw inaccurate passes and interceptions.
Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs amassed 105 rushing yards against Washington's low-ranking run defense. Gibbs needed all of 14 carries to reach this rushing total.
It would have been ideal if Gibbs could have run more.
Philadelphia's star running back, Saquon Barkley, will get to run more because of how solid the Eagles' top-ranked scoring defense is.
Barkley, who ran for 2,005 yards in the regular season, is arguably the NFL's top running back.
Philadelphia's offense thrives when Barkley thrives because defenses have to worry about containing him to some extent.
When Barkley exceeds 140 rushing yards, Philadelphia has scored at least 26 points six times in a row.
Not only is Barkley elite, but he also gets great blocks from Philadelphia's annually solid offensive line, which will have a huge advantage against Washington's defensive line, which so easily gets moved off the line of scrimmage and struggles to make contact with the opposing running back.
Takeaway
Facing a pass defense that does a poor job of limiting the opponent's passer rating, Hurts will use his elite All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown and several other effective targets to take what he can get.
He won't have to press much, as Saquon Barkley will have another fantastic performance, after running for 205 yards last week, against Washington's 30th-ranked run defense.
Washington will, like Baltimore, fail to reach 20 points against Philadelphia's top-caliber defense.
The Eagles' defensive backs are well-coordinated and are supported by a stacked pass rush.
Jayden Daniels won't have good running backs to support him, and he won't be able to carry his offense against coverages that are difficult for the best quarterbacks to navigate.
The Daniels hype is giving people an unrealistic sense of his abilities. He is a great rookie who has looked awesome against poor and beleaguered defenses, but this is where his team's run ends.
I could see Washington back-dooring the spread against a late-game lax Eagles defense, though.
Philadelphia used to start slow but has really emphasized starting fast. With Hurts, the Eagles have had their highest-scoring quarter be the first one in each of their last four games.
Let's go, therefore, with a first-quarter play on the Eagles and save the full-game money-line for our parlays.
Best Bet: Eagles First-Quarter -.5 at -110 with Bovada; Saquon Barkley Over 123.5 rushing yards at -110 with Bovada
