NFL Preseason Week 2 Parlay for Saturday's Games
Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings
Saturday, August 21, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis
Remembering and Forgetting Last Week
One of the biggest mistakes that bettors make is succumbing to recency bias.
It is easy to dismiss Minnesota this week after seeing this team lose 33-6 to a Denver group that is not exactly known for producing fireworks on offense.
With a whole week in between games, though, we need to adopt a broader perspective.
Some things are going to change for Minnesota, but others will stay the same.
Two broad and considerable changes will involve Minnesota's level of preparedness and the intensity of its competition.
Against Denver, Viking players made uncharacteristic mistakes, committed penalties, suffered tremendous miscues, and otherwise earned Coach Zimmer's postgame and midweek wrath.
These mistakes put them in a hole from which they could not recover.
They also suffered for playing their backups against a Bronco offense that is momentarily bolstered by competition for the starting quarterback position.
So the Broncos were throwing passes with two quarterbacks who could earn the starting job for the entire regular season.
Minnesota is going to benefit from facing a Colt team that knows who its top quarterback is (the currently injured Carson Wentz) and from being more prepared after a reportedly harder, more intense, and more concentrated week of practice.
While it's still only preseason, nobody enjoys being embarrassed.
The Secondary
Denver's biggest threat in Week 1 was posed by KJ Hamler, who had more than three times as many yards as any other Bronco wide receiver.
He was able to use his deep play ability to burn the Viking secondary for an 80-yard touchdown.
One thing that makes Indianapolis less likable this week is that they do not have a KJ Hamler.
While Parris Campbell is speedy, he isn't nearly as proven or established as a deep threat as Hamler is.
Campbell's deficiency in this regard is evident in his significantly lower rate of deep targets per game last year.In this metric, Hamler ranked 79 spots higher.
On top of not having a KJ Hamler, Indianapolis no longer has deep threat Marcus Johnson, who is now with the Titans.
But I also think the Viking secondary will play a lot better because it is much better than it looked last week.
In particular, look for Cam Dantzler to bounce back. Last year, he was named to PFF's All-Rookie Team.
Moreover, Cornerback Kris Boyd already looks ready after accumulating several solo tackle and breaking up a pass to Jerry Jeudy that would have been a big play for Denver.
The Trenches
With Anthony Castonzo retired and Eric Fisher not expected back until mid-October, the Colts are not as strong at the tackle positions.
Just to be clear, it is well-known that the starters on the offensive line are still going to make this group a high-level strength for Indianapolis this season.
But the backups at tackle look much more vulnerable and beatable especially against the depth that Minnesota has to offer at the defensive end positions.
Position battles are important to keep track of in the preseason beause they are competitive and therefore serve as a source of added motivation in games that otherwise don't count for anything.
Minnesota's defensive end starting position is highlighted by a battle between DJ Wonnum and Stephen Weatherly.
Likewise at defensive end, Patrick Jones II made an instant impact in his entrance to the game last week as he effectively registered pressure on Denver's quarterback and achieved a tackle for loss.
Jones has been a hyped-up rookie after ranking fifth in sacks last year in college football. He adds quality to an already competitive defensive end position, which will take advantage of Indianapolis' regression at tackle.
Minnesota's Offensive Ineptitude
One thing that I expect to repeat itself after Minnesota's game against Denver is Minnesota's offensive struggles.
Even before the game against Denver, the Viking offensive line was a reportedly a major question mark heading into the season.
To be consistent, sure, these guys will be better prepared just like Cam Dantzler and other Viking players will be better prepared.
But my point is that we already knew that the Viking offensive line would be bad and it clearly still has a tremendous amount of work ahead of itself.
Right guard Dakota Dozier, for example, ranked 312th out of 312 players according to PFF out of all offensive linemen who saw at least 20 snaps last weekend.
Quarterback Comparison
Backup Viking quarterbacks also look worrisome.
Last week, Jake Browning mustered a 17.1 passer rating while Kellen Mond's was only 30 points better.
Going back to the latter portion of his college career, Browning has been disappointing for a while.
Mond, who missed some time due to COVID, looked more intent on handing the ball off or running the ball.
Mond and Browning look drastically worse than Colt quarterbacks Sam Ehlinger and Jacob Eason, both of whom already impressed and found a rhythm in Week 1 against Carolina.
Eason showed off his arm and efficiency, Ehlinger his legs and his comfort in high-pressure situations.
The thing is, both quarterbacks are vying for second-place on the depth chart. But their competition is more meaningful because Wentz may not be ready for Week 1, in which case either Ehlinger or Eason would earn the start.
The Verdict
With young and unreliable quarterbacks and a continually awful o-line, Minnesota has to overcome too many issues on offense to deserve to be favored.
Stated differently, there's only one team I have confidence in to score some points, and that's Indianapolis. Meanwhile, an improved Viking defense will keep this game low-scoring.
Best Bet: Parlay Colts +2.5 at +100 & Under 38.5 at -110 with Bovada
Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings
Saturday, August 21, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis
Remembering and Forgetting Last Week
One of the biggest mistakes that bettors make is succumbing to recency bias.
It is easy to dismiss Minnesota this week after seeing this team lose 33-6 to a Denver group that is not exactly known for producing fireworks on offense.
With a whole week in between games, though, we need to adopt a broader perspective.
Some things are going to change for Minnesota, but others will stay the same.
Two broad and considerable changes will involve Minnesota's level of preparedness and the intensity of its competition.
Against Denver, Viking players made uncharacteristic mistakes, committed penalties, suffered tremendous miscues, and otherwise earned Coach Zimmer's postgame and midweek wrath.
These mistakes put them in a hole from which they could not recover.
They also suffered for playing their backups against a Bronco offense that is momentarily bolstered by competition for the starting quarterback position.
So the Broncos were throwing passes with two quarterbacks who could earn the starting job for the entire regular season.
Minnesota is going to benefit from facing a Colt team that knows who its top quarterback is (the currently injured Carson Wentz) and from being more prepared after a reportedly harder, more intense, and more concentrated week of practice.
While it's still only preseason, nobody enjoys being embarrassed.
The Secondary
Denver's biggest threat in Week 1 was posed by KJ Hamler, who had more than three times as many yards as any other Bronco wide receiver.
He was able to use his deep play ability to burn the Viking secondary for an 80-yard touchdown.
One thing that makes Indianapolis less likable this week is that they do not have a KJ Hamler.
While Parris Campbell is speedy, he isn't nearly as proven or established as a deep threat as Hamler is.
Campbell's deficiency in this regard is evident in his significantly lower rate of deep targets per game last year.In this metric, Hamler ranked 79 spots higher.
On top of not having a KJ Hamler, Indianapolis no longer has deep threat Marcus Johnson, who is now with the Titans.
But I also think the Viking secondary will play a lot better because it is much better than it looked last week.
In particular, look for Cam Dantzler to bounce back. Last year, he was named to PFF's All-Rookie Team.
Moreover, Cornerback Kris Boyd already looks ready after accumulating several solo tackle and breaking up a pass to Jerry Jeudy that would have been a big play for Denver.
The Trenches
With Anthony Castonzo retired and Eric Fisher not expected back until mid-October, the Colts are not as strong at the tackle positions.
Just to be clear, it is well-known that the starters on the offensive line are still going to make this group a high-level strength for Indianapolis this season.
But the backups at tackle look much more vulnerable and beatable especially against the depth that Minnesota has to offer at the defensive end positions.
Position battles are important to keep track of in the preseason beause they are competitive and therefore serve as a source of added motivation in games that otherwise don't count for anything.
Minnesota's defensive end starting position is highlighted by a battle between DJ Wonnum and Stephen Weatherly.
Likewise at defensive end, Patrick Jones II made an instant impact in his entrance to the game last week as he effectively registered pressure on Denver's quarterback and achieved a tackle for loss.
Jones has been a hyped-up rookie after ranking fifth in sacks last year in college football. He adds quality to an already competitive defensive end position, which will take advantage of Indianapolis' regression at tackle.
Minnesota's Offensive Ineptitude
One thing that I expect to repeat itself after Minnesota's game against Denver is Minnesota's offensive struggles.
Even before the game against Denver, the Viking offensive line was a reportedly a major question mark heading into the season.
To be consistent, sure, these guys will be better prepared just like Cam Dantzler and other Viking players will be better prepared.
But my point is that we already knew that the Viking offensive line would be bad and it clearly still has a tremendous amount of work ahead of itself.
Right guard Dakota Dozier, for example, ranked 312th out of 312 players according to PFF out of all offensive linemen who saw at least 20 snaps last weekend.
Quarterback Comparison
Backup Viking quarterbacks also look worrisome.
Last week, Jake Browning mustered a 17.1 passer rating while Kellen Mond's was only 30 points better.
Going back to the latter portion of his college career, Browning has been disappointing for a while.
Mond, who missed some time due to COVID, looked more intent on handing the ball off or running the ball.
Mond and Browning look drastically worse than Colt quarterbacks Sam Ehlinger and Jacob Eason, both of whom already impressed and found a rhythm in Week 1 against Carolina.
Eason showed off his arm and efficiency, Ehlinger his legs and his comfort in high-pressure situations.
The thing is, both quarterbacks are vying for second-place on the depth chart. But their competition is more meaningful because Wentz may not be ready for Week 1, in which case either Ehlinger or Eason would earn the start.
The Verdict
With young and unreliable quarterbacks and a continually awful o-line, Minnesota has to overcome too many issues on offense to deserve to be favored.
Stated differently, there's only one team I have confidence in to score some points, and that's Indianapolis. Meanwhile, an improved Viking defense will keep this game low-scoring.
Best Bet: Parlay Colts +2.5 at +100 & Under 38.5 at -110 with Bovada
