Colts vs Pats total

[Wikeman]

I am looking at the total o/u 47,5 and wondering why is is so relatively high. I would estimate the total around 40.

Looking at the playoff games Colts have proved they can stop the run. The Pats will therefore have to count on Brady's passing game to pick the defense apart. When Pats played the Vikings (the best run defense), they used such a game plan with success and won 31-7. Can Colts shut down both Brady and the run? Trent Green was shut down (doesn't count for much IMO), but Steve McNair had 18/29 173 yds 2 Int 0 TD. I think the Pats will score, but probably less than 20 points, the Colts defense is on a mission it seems. The 37 points they scored against Jets is inflated because of the Jets risk taking near the end.

Looking at Colts, they have won their two playoff games despite Manning's 5 interceptions. Can he raise his game against Patriot? I think so, but I don't think the fireworks will extend beyond 27 points. After all Manning is a well known foe to Belichick.

Could it be a shoot out? I doubt it. Could there be several defensive touchdowns? - yes, always when Pats are involved. But all in all I think the total is too high.

Any further thoughts guys? :drink:

Recent meetings:
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 295pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=390 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 39pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1664" width=52><COL style="WIDTH: 54pt" width=72><COL style="WIDTH: 42pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1792" width=56><COL style="WIDTH: 26pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1088" width=34><COL style="WIDTH: 21pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 896" width=28><COL style="WIDTH: 23pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 960" span=2 width=30><COL style="WIDTH: 21pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 896" width=28><COL style="WIDTH: 23pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 960" span=2 width=30><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 39pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=52 height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=72></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=56></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=34></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=28>NE</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=30></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=30></TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #00ccff" width=28>IND</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #00ccff" width=30></TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #00ccff" width=30></TD></TR><FORM id=__aspnetForm name=__aspnetForm action=pageloader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_summary_2.html method=post><TR style="HEIGHT: 21pt" height=28><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 39pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 21pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=52 height=28>Date</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=72>Away/Home</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=56>Line</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=34>O/U</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=28>Tot</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=30>Rus</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=30>Pas</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #00ccff" width=28>Tot</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #00ccff" width=30>Rus</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #00ccff" width=30>Pas</TD></TR></FORM><TR style="HEIGHT: 25.5pt" height=34><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 39pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 25.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=52 height=34>11/5/06</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>IND 27 - NE 20</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=56>IND 3</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=34>U 48</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=28 x:num>349</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>148</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>201</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=28 x:num>354</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>53</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>301</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 25.5pt" height=34><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 25.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=34><FORM id=__aspnetForm name=__aspnetForm action=pageloader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_summary_2.html method=post>11/7/05 </FORM></TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>IND 40 - NE 21</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=56>IND -4.5</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=34>O 48</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=28 x:num>288</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>34</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>254</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=28 x:num>453</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>132</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>321</TD></TR><FORM id=__aspnetForm name=__aspnetForm action=pageloader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_summary_2.html method=post><TR style="HEIGHT: 25.5pt" height=34><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 39pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 25.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=52 height=34>1/16/05</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>IND 3 - NE 20</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=56>NE PK</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=34>U 51</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=28 x:num>325</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>210</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>115</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 21pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=28 x:num>276</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>46</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" align=right width=30 x:num>230 </FORM></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Playoff game scores:

IND
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 271pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=361 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 55pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2336" width=73><COL style="WIDTH: 54pt" span=4 width=72><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 21pt" height=28><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 55pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 21pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=73 height=28>1/13/07</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>@BAL</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>W 15-6</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>W 4</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>U 41</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 25.5pt" height=34><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 55pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 25.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=73 height=34>1/6/07</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>KC</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>W 23-8</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>W -7</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>U 50.5 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

NE
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 271pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=361 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 55pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2336" width=73><COL style="WIDTH: 54pt" span=4 width=72><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 25.5pt" height=34><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 55pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 25.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=73 height=34>1/14/07</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>@SD</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>W 24-21</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>W 5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>U 45.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 55pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffcc" width=73 height=17>1/7/07</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>NYJ</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>W 37-16</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=72>W -9.5 </FORM></TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FORM id=__aspnetForm name=__aspnetForm action=pageloader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_summary_2.html method=post>O 38.5 </FORM></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Mimir- my gut tells me this will be over! Based on what?no logic here. I am thinking 27-23. If you want to bet the over wait until kickoff! I see the line dropping, I expect it to be around 46.5 or so. If you like the under I would grab it now.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Wikeman]

I have bought the under 48. Basically I think the value lies in improved Colts defense, compared to last meeting.

I have the idea that the game will start slow scoring, with high defensive intensity and low risk taking from the Colts, trying to establish their run game.

 

[Terpman92]

I still haven't decided on this one yet Mimir! I'll probably wait until gameday. Good luck to you!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The difficulty with this one is its all about the truth of the Colts defense.

A situation thats easier to deal with if you dont believe in it, because you have little barrier to taking the Over (Pats get theirs, Indy gets theirs at home).

However, if you do believe in that defense (& therefore are likely leaning on a Colts win), is it a case of the Colts win by more than people expect, and *make the Over by themselves*?, or score a "normal" amount and therefore the game goes Under?

I'm not underselling their defense, so too hard basket for me.

 

[paytheline]

the team that wins this one is going to have to go down the field with their passes....i believe you'll see a game where both teams score in the mid twenties...with the winner scoring almost 30

 

[rolub]

the team that wins this one is going to have to go down the field with their passes....i believe you'll see a game where both teams score in the mid twenties...with the winner scoring almost 30

I agree. In regards to BetCrimes' comments, I think the Indy D has overperformed thus far in the playoffs, and obviously Peyton (and the offense) has underperformed. Not to take anything away from New England's defense, but I don't see the Colts not getting theirs at home in such a big game. as far as Indy's D, the Chiefs game didn't tell me much as Green played like you'd expect... someone who missed a majority of the season. While LJ wasn't moving the ball early, Herm was outcoached YET AGAIN, taking the ball out of LJ's hands and getting him only 13 carries. The Ravens are what they are, and that's an old, battered offense with no legit playmaker.

I see a Colts win in the neighborhood of 34-27. Good luck to all. :cheers:

 

[Wikeman]

Yes, good point from Paytheline. Both teams have an interest in emhasizing the passing game: the Colts because they have Manning, and the Pats because they probably won't be able to run much.

Does it necessarily mean high scoring? Not easy to say. I still see the values in the improved defenses.

 

[spanishshark]

Mimir, although I most likely wont be playing a total here I tend to agree with you. I already played Indy but I think the total will go under. I expect more of a defensive game this time around. Indy HAS stepped up their defense. Its no fluke. Dungy is starting to apply the same strategies he used with the Tampa Bay Bucs when he had the #1 defense in the NFL. Also, what I believe is going to be the most ironic thing in this game is that Indy will win this game not on Mannings passing but on Adam Vinatieri's foot. Tell me that's not going to feel like a punch in the gut to New England? Oh boy. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

Under !

 

[biggoob]

as PTL says, to win the teams must pass. which both do very well. the weakness for the pats d is the secondary (without harrison). the pats can throw and will... just look at last week where they threw 40+ times vs running it around 17... i agree successful passing does not mean scores. indy will pass and always do. my only concern for the total over is the fact indy is not focusing on manning to win the game as much this year. they are looking to other parts of the offence and def to win. the last two weeks manning has not had to put the team on his shoulders (int's in both playoff games) which could keep the game lower scoring. it seems as if this year indy has not been so worried when manning is not "on" per se. which in my opinion is one of the reasons they are doing so well in the playoffs this year. i'll stop here as it is becoming just a ramble..thanks !!!

 

[Wikeman]

Bad call.

Big 4th down plays from the Pats early in the game opened up the scoring.

Colts stuffed the run well in 2nd half, but early on they didn't show up. How could they NOT be ready to play OMG.

Pats defense disappointed me big time in the second half.

A strange roller coaster ride. Like scripted for entertainment value.

 

[sirwinzalot]

Well, neither defense is that great. Pats, have been a fraud on defense this year. Besides Colts like to throw underneath and you have guys like Bruschi, who is slow trying to cover backs, WR, and TE. Indy defense is a little better than their horrible showing for weeks in the regular season, but not as good as what they have been showing. Mix in a dome game with two good quarterbacks, and you have an over. Not saying I predicted that much scoring.........but certainly saw both teams getting in the 20s and at least another td to push it over.