Colts v. Giants - MNF

Hakan's Picks

Hakan's Picks

Pretty much a regular
Indianapolis Colts v. New York Giants – 11.3.2014


Picking a side for this one is a little tough, as I can see this playing out one of two ways. It all depends on which Colts defense shows up, the one that shut the Bengals out, or the one that got lit up for 51 points against the Steelers. Betting against a Tom Coughlin team coming off a bye, despite their injuries, might not be the smartest thing to do. The Colts lead the NFL in average points per game with 31.3 points. They have scored at least 27 points in six of their eight games. The Giants defense is ranked 20th in the league in average points allowed, and their top CB Rodgers-Cromartie being questionable with a bad back doesn't make the situation any better. Even if he plays, he won't be 100%. In addition, they are down to their third nickel CB, as McBride and Thurmond are out for the year. This also doesn't bode well against the league's 1st ranked passing attack. If the Giants win, it will be a high-scoring game. Depending on which Colts defense shows up, they could blowout the Giants, or it could be a close game. In any case, whether the Colts win or not, I am confident that they will score a lot of points. Pick: Colts Over 26.5 Points Scored at -115 (5Dimes).


NFL Picks
Total: 14-15
November: 4-3
 
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Luck seeing opposing teams for the first time: Luck has never faced the Giants before. After seeing the Steelers last week for the first time Luck is now 12-12 SU and 11-13 ATS with an O/U of 12-12 when he is facing a team for the first time in his career (4-9 SU and ATS away). In the L6 games in that situation (since week 7 of last season) those opposing teams are 5-1 SU and ATS (5-0 SU and ATS L5) with an O/U of 6-0 (Broncos, Rams, Cardinals, Bengals, Eagles, and Steelers). They scored an average of 39 ±7 points per game against the Colts in those L6 games in that situation, and won by margins of 30,29,14,3,17.
 
Interesting stats as always, Austinhous. Appreciate it. Good luck tonight.

Good luck Eagles, Steed.

Let's get 'em tonight!
 
Hakan's Picks said:
Interesting stats as always, Austinhous. Appreciate it. Good luck tonight.
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Thank you, Hakan. I also just realized that Coughlin is 6-0 SU coming out of the bye week the last six years. Combine that with Luck going 0-5 L5 when he's seeing the opposing team's defense for the first time, and I would definitely take the Giants tonight if I had to choose a side. They came out of their bye in 2012 and played the Packers at home, holding Aaron Rodgers to 14 of 25 for 219 yards, one TD, one interception, and one lost fumble in that game. The Giants ended up winning that game 38-10 as 3-point home favorites. I think that all week the majority of the bets have come in on the Colts as well, which makes it easier to back the Giants (if I had to pick a side).
 
austinhous said:
Thank you, Hakan. I also just realized that Coughlin is 6-0 SU coming out of the bye week the last six years. Combine that with Luck going 0-5 L5 when he's seeing the opposing team's defense for the first time, and I would definitely take the Giants tonight if I had to choose a side. They came out of their bye in 2012 and played the Packers at home, holding Aaron Rodgers to 14 of 25 for 219 yards, one TD, one interception, and one lost fumble in that game. The Giants ended up winning that game 38-10 as 3-point home favorites. I think that all week the majority of the bets have come in on the Colts as well, which makes it easier to back the Giants (if I had to pick a side).
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I'm not surprised to see Coughlin's 6-0 SU record coming of a bye week. He's a damn good coach. Pitt exposed the Colts defense last week. The Giants may not be able to stop the Colts, but they can sure hang with them - and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win. Going against public money is never a bad strategy either.
 
You never know what Giants team you're going to get, especially now that the division is wide open with Romo and Foles going down.

I think the Giants bring their A-game tonight, but is it enough to beat a good Colts team?

I dont think Eli has enough on offense nor do the giants have enough on defense to get into a shootout with Luck.

Way too many ??s for me to bet this one, but I'd take the giants ML if i was going to touch it.
 
I wouldn't say the east side open, the Eagles will win it. Foles going down isn't a big deal, he was an interception machine. The Giants are really bad, the Eagles exposed them two weeks ago
 
EAGLES2828 said:
The Giants are really bad, the Eagles exposed them two weeks ago
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This is a good point. What was up with that game.. 27-0? The game Cruz got injured. Looks like they got to Eli pretty good, as they sacked him 8 times. I guess that will do it. The Giants didn't allow a sack in the next game versus the Cowboys, though.
 
I think the media is so in love with Luck that they overvalue the Colts as a team.

What is their marquee win this year...beating an avg. Bengals team by 27 at home?

They have shown they could put points on the board, and I think the team over is a good bet tonight, but the Giants are definitely capable of winning this game outright if they hold onto the ball.
 
giants for me. home dog, monday night. giants up and down and colts for sure overvalued. love tom off the bye and colts trending downward.
 
It really is tough to pick a side. Colts would be the pick if it weren't for the loss to the Steelers, and the Giants coming off a bye.
 
austinhous said:
Sanchez threw 2 picks yesterday?
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One was bad, but the first one was literally right in the receivers hands. As a diehard Eagles fan I can tell you this: Sanchez might not be better then Foles, but hes not worse either. Shockingly enough, sanchez has looked solid since the start of preseason.
 
my book has team total at 27.5 now which is uncomfortably high.


These are the types of games i lay about 100 dollars worth of prop bets. I personally like Luck over 18.5 rushing yards and TY Hilton over 5.5 receptions.
 
Hakan's Picks said:
Wondering which way the line will move. Right now, the books have the Chiefs between -2.5 and -1.5. Wondering if we'll get a better line, or should we jump on it now?
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I drunkenly hit it last night at -1 in one of my better moves. If it gets bet up to 3 I have a feeling it will get bet back down. That 1.5 to 2.5 area really isn't much of a difference and I think you can likely wait.
 
Fondybadger said:
I drunkenly hit it last night at -1 in one of my better moves. If it gets bet up to 3 I have a feeling it will get bet back down. That 1.5 to 2.5 area really isn't much of a difference and I think you can likely wait.
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Bills are such a tough read and your thoughts on why KC? U think there dink n donk offense will beat bills was leaning buff off bye... Didnt think kc did anything great yesterday
 
both interceptions aren't his fault. the first was in the hands of his receiver but he couldn't hold it so it ended up being intercepted. the second interception his wide receiver run the wrong route. foles is a good player but, I've been really frustrated with his mistakes the last couple weeks, I want to see what mark can do. I hope Kelly allows mark to manage the game and feed the ball to shady and the little dude with giant heart(43).
 
EAGLES2828 said:
both interceptions aren't his fault. the first was in the hands of his receiver but he couldn't hold it so it ended up being intercepted. the second interception his wide receiver run the wrong route. foles is a good player but, I've been really frustrated with his mistakes the last couple weeks, I want to see what mark can do. I hope Kelly allows mark to manage the game and feed the ball to shady and the little dude with giant heart(43).
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How Foles only threw two INT's last year is beyond me. Maybe it was luck, I don't know. He's way overrated. Sanchez is horrible, but he's not much worse than Foles.
 
Forty oz b said:
You never know what Giants team you're going to get, especially now that the division is wide open with Romo and Foles going down.

I think the Giants bring their A-game tonight, but is it enough to beat a good Colts team?

I dont think Eli has enough on offense nor do the giants have enough on defense to get into a shootout with Luck.

Way too many ??s for me to bet this one, but I'd take the giants ML if i was going to touch it.
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The colts are not that good. They've lost to all three would be playoff opponents on their schedule. True, they beat Natti, but historically teams coming off a game that ended in a tie have gotten crushed the following week. Besides that, they've beaten nobody. And before you say it, Balt is closer to a nobody than a somebody. For some damn reason, Luck and the Colts always get a "pass". Damnedest thing I've ever seen in sport for someone who has done so little.
 
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