‚National' Catastrophe Awaits Washington in Colorado
Colorado hosts Washington on Friday at 7:10 ET. A pitching mismatch will help Colorado maintain its very small lead in the NL West.
MLB Pick: Rockies ML
Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (16-7, 2.84 ERA) has won seven straight decisions. The impressive aspect of Freeland’s win streak is that he hasn’t typically had to rely on much run support. In four of his last six wins, the Rockies scored four runs or fewer But Freeland is dominant, even though it’s a bit harder to see that if you only look at the number of runs he’s allowed because his home ballpark is an extremely hitters-friendly venue in which the best pitchers allow more runs than usual. Despite this statistical caveat, he’s conceded two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts. The two exceptions were in San Diego, where he was a victim of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and yielded a low FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) and in his home venue. In each exception he still only conceded three runs. Freeland is baseball’s second most profitable pitcher, yielding +14.5 units. He’s most profitable at home, where the Rox are 12-2 when he starts, yielding +9.5 units.
The southpaw Freeland relies on his fastball with 39 percent frequency and most in all scenarios but a few. When the batter isn’t ahead of the count, his cutter tends to take over. Pitchers often lean on their fastball as a serviceable pitch and then amp up the usage of their breaking stuff when runners enter into scoring position. But Freeland more consistently gets outs with his fastball. HIs last six opponents are batting a combined .197 against it. Freeland locates his pitch well, most often placing it on the periphery of the zone. He also puts a good amount of spin on his fastball, which gives it the appearance of rising action so that opponents swing underneath it, which is why the fastball is his favorite fly ball-inducing pitch. Although ground ball-inducing pitchers are typically desired in Coors, Freeland’s fastball is still effective because opponents don’t hit it hard enough. At Coors, he tends to induce more ground balls, doing so with over 50% frequency in his last three home starts. His cutter does the best job of generating ground balls with its combination of dip and arm-side movement and its consistent location in the lowest row or periphery of the strike zone.
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Washington’s Joe Ross (0-1, 4.09 ERA) makes his third start of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery 14 months ago. He pitched in Coors last April and allowed five runs in only 4.2 innings.
Ross relies on a fastball, sinker, slider, change combo. He throws all four pitches with between 22 and 31 percent frequency. He’s similar to Freeland in that his fastball is his favorite pitch. However, Ross' fastball isn’t effective. Opponents are slugging .556 against it. Its velocity is respectable and it has nice arm-side movement. But that means nothing when he can’t command it. Only 14% of his fastballs thrown have landed for a strike and only 1% of them generate a whiff. So batters track his fastball easily and can stay away when it’s not in a very hittable location. To compensate for his difficulty in placing it within the strike zone, Ross tends to leave it around the middle, more hittable region of the zone just to make sure that it lands for a strike.
Colorado matches up well with Ross, ranking ninth in slugging in September against his pitches. The Rockies hold a half-game lead in the NL West and are solidly determined to make the playoffs. They’ve won six in a row and produced at least 10 runs in their past three games. Watch for Nolan Arenado, who is batting .348 in his past seven days.
Colorado hosts Washington on Friday at 7:10 ET. A pitching mismatch will help Colorado maintain its very small lead in the NL West.
MLB Pick: Rockies ML
Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (16-7, 2.84 ERA) has won seven straight decisions. The impressive aspect of Freeland’s win streak is that he hasn’t typically had to rely on much run support. In four of his last six wins, the Rockies scored four runs or fewer But Freeland is dominant, even though it’s a bit harder to see that if you only look at the number of runs he’s allowed because his home ballpark is an extremely hitters-friendly venue in which the best pitchers allow more runs than usual. Despite this statistical caveat, he’s conceded two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts. The two exceptions were in San Diego, where he was a victim of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and yielded a low FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) and in his home venue. In each exception he still only conceded three runs. Freeland is baseball’s second most profitable pitcher, yielding +14.5 units. He’s most profitable at home, where the Rox are 12-2 when he starts, yielding +9.5 units.
The southpaw Freeland relies on his fastball with 39 percent frequency and most in all scenarios but a few. When the batter isn’t ahead of the count, his cutter tends to take over. Pitchers often lean on their fastball as a serviceable pitch and then amp up the usage of their breaking stuff when runners enter into scoring position. But Freeland more consistently gets outs with his fastball. HIs last six opponents are batting a combined .197 against it. Freeland locates his pitch well, most often placing it on the periphery of the zone. He also puts a good amount of spin on his fastball, which gives it the appearance of rising action so that opponents swing underneath it, which is why the fastball is his favorite fly ball-inducing pitch. Although ground ball-inducing pitchers are typically desired in Coors, Freeland’s fastball is still effective because opponents don’t hit it hard enough. At Coors, he tends to induce more ground balls, doing so with over 50% frequency in his last three home starts. His cutter does the best job of generating ground balls with its combination of dip and arm-side movement and its consistent location in the lowest row or periphery of the strike zone.
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Washington’s Joe Ross (0-1, 4.09 ERA) makes his third start of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery 14 months ago. He pitched in Coors last April and allowed five runs in only 4.2 innings.
Ross relies on a fastball, sinker, slider, change combo. He throws all four pitches with between 22 and 31 percent frequency. He’s similar to Freeland in that his fastball is his favorite pitch. However, Ross' fastball isn’t effective. Opponents are slugging .556 against it. Its velocity is respectable and it has nice arm-side movement. But that means nothing when he can’t command it. Only 14% of his fastballs thrown have landed for a strike and only 1% of them generate a whiff. So batters track his fastball easily and can stay away when it’s not in a very hittable location. To compensate for his difficulty in placing it within the strike zone, Ross tends to leave it around the middle, more hittable region of the zone just to make sure that it lands for a strike.
Colorado matches up well with Ross, ranking ninth in slugging in September against his pitches. The Rockies hold a half-game lead in the NL West and are solidly determined to make the playoffs. They’ve won six in a row and produced at least 10 runs in their past three games. Watch for Nolan Arenado, who is batting .348 in his past seven days.
