MLB Parlay for Today at (+271) Features Two Series Finales
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Sweep Situation
St. Louis finds itself in a situation in which it has been fade-worthy throughout the season.
After they won the first two games in their current series against Colorado, the Cardinals' situation is that tonight is a sweep-clinching game for them.
On the season, St. Louis is 3-4 in sweep situations.
While this record isn't terrible, the fact that those losses came against Miami, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati (twice) is telling.
Interestingly, two of St. Louis' three victories in this situation came against winning teams (San Diego and the Yankees).
For whatever reason, the Cardinals are more likely to lose in this spot when facing a losing team -- and, indeed, Colorado is a losing team.
Perhaps the Cardinals get arrogant, or arrogance gets mixed with complacency.
As a further bonus to this play, the Rockies are 2-0 in the second half of the season in games in which they need to win in order to ward off the sweep.
Their two victims were two winning squads, Milwaukee and San Diego.
Antonio Senzatela in St. Louis
One might still insist on playing St. Louis because of Rockie starter Antonio Senzatela's career history in St. Louis.
But Senzatela's career history in St. Louis is hollow because it consists in just three games.
One bad game, which took place in 2019, is responsible for his poor career ERA in Busch Stadium.
He has pitched very well in St. Louis before, so he is obviously capable of thriving in St. Louis.
The fact that Senzatela is pitching during the day offers additional hope because, although generally unprofitable to back, he is yielding +3.1 units in day games.
Colorado hitters' superior play in day games contributes to Senzatela's profitability during the day.
Wainwright vs. Rockie Batters
Multiple Colorado batters boast strong track records against Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright.
Look out, especially, for Charlie Blackmon, CJ Cron, and Brendan Rodgers.
Blackmon slugs .762 against Wainwright in 21 at-bats.
Cron's slugging rate is .800 in five at-bats with Wainwright pitching.
Rodgers is slugging 1.667 in three at-bats versus Wainwright.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zac Gallen starts for Arizona today.
His form couldn't be better.
After shutting out Pittsburgh over the course of seven innings two starts ago, he replicated this outcome in Colorado's notoriously hitters-friendly ballpark.
More extensively, Gallen has allowed zero runs in three of his last five starts and one earned run or fewer in four of those starts.
Daytime Gallen
Gallen is especially solid during the day.
This year, he boasts a 1.89 ERA in eight daytime starts.
His success before nighttime helps explain why, pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, the "under" is hitting in 83.3 percent of his daytime outings.
Gallen vs. Giant Batters
Even if Gallen weren't pitching during the day and even if his form weren't so spectacular, he merits optimism today because he matches up well against Giant batters given the pitches that he likes to throw.
He throws four pitches with over 10 percent frequency: a fastball, curveball, changeup, and cutter.
These four pitches make up over 98 percent of his arsenal.
San Francisco ranks 25th in slugging against these four pitches from righties.
Given Gallen's matchup advantage, it comes as no surprise that he has yielded only three earned runs in two starts against the Giants.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
San Francisco starts Logan Webb today.
While he is a strong "over" pitcher, he has benefitted from getting the second-most run support among NL pitchers, which he won't be able to count on with Gallen pitching for Arizona.
Webb vs. Arizona Batters
Throughout his career, Webb has always been solid when facing Arizona at home.
On July 12 of this season, he shut out the Diamondbacks over six innings in San Francisco.
Last year, he faced Arizona once at home and allowed zero earned runs in five innings.
The list continues.
Few Arizona batters present a positive history with Webb on the mound.
One of those few is Ketel Marte, and he is injured.
After taking a few days off, he finally had an at-bat yesterday, but he did not get a hit.
Marte remains listed as day-to-day with a hamstring injury.
Parlay Verdict
Expect a win from Colorado and a pitcher's duel in San Francisco.
Because, to me, it feels greedy to put a +200 underdog in a parlay, I recommend taking Colorado on the run-line and parlaying the Rockies RL with the Arizona/San Francisco under.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockies RL at -105 & Diamondbacks/Giants Under 7 at -105 at +271 odds with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Sweep Situation
St. Louis finds itself in a situation in which it has been fade-worthy throughout the season.
After they won the first two games in their current series against Colorado, the Cardinals' situation is that tonight is a sweep-clinching game for them.
On the season, St. Louis is 3-4 in sweep situations.
While this record isn't terrible, the fact that those losses came against Miami, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati (twice) is telling.
Interestingly, two of St. Louis' three victories in this situation came against winning teams (San Diego and the Yankees).
For whatever reason, the Cardinals are more likely to lose in this spot when facing a losing team -- and, indeed, Colorado is a losing team.
Perhaps the Cardinals get arrogant, or arrogance gets mixed with complacency.
As a further bonus to this play, the Rockies are 2-0 in the second half of the season in games in which they need to win in order to ward off the sweep.
Their two victims were two winning squads, Milwaukee and San Diego.
Antonio Senzatela in St. Louis
One might still insist on playing St. Louis because of Rockie starter Antonio Senzatela's career history in St. Louis.
But Senzatela's career history in St. Louis is hollow because it consists in just three games.
One bad game, which took place in 2019, is responsible for his poor career ERA in Busch Stadium.
He has pitched very well in St. Louis before, so he is obviously capable of thriving in St. Louis.
The fact that Senzatela is pitching during the day offers additional hope because, although generally unprofitable to back, he is yielding +3.1 units in day games.
Colorado hitters' superior play in day games contributes to Senzatela's profitability during the day.
Wainwright vs. Rockie Batters
Multiple Colorado batters boast strong track records against Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright.
Look out, especially, for Charlie Blackmon, CJ Cron, and Brendan Rodgers.
Blackmon slugs .762 against Wainwright in 21 at-bats.
Cron's slugging rate is .800 in five at-bats with Wainwright pitching.
Rodgers is slugging 1.667 in three at-bats versus Wainwright.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zac Gallen starts for Arizona today.
His form couldn't be better.
After shutting out Pittsburgh over the course of seven innings two starts ago, he replicated this outcome in Colorado's notoriously hitters-friendly ballpark.
More extensively, Gallen has allowed zero runs in three of his last five starts and one earned run or fewer in four of those starts.
Daytime Gallen
Gallen is especially solid during the day.
This year, he boasts a 1.89 ERA in eight daytime starts.
His success before nighttime helps explain why, pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, the "under" is hitting in 83.3 percent of his daytime outings.
Gallen vs. Giant Batters
Even if Gallen weren't pitching during the day and even if his form weren't so spectacular, he merits optimism today because he matches up well against Giant batters given the pitches that he likes to throw.
He throws four pitches with over 10 percent frequency: a fastball, curveball, changeup, and cutter.
These four pitches make up over 98 percent of his arsenal.
San Francisco ranks 25th in slugging against these four pitches from righties.
Given Gallen's matchup advantage, it comes as no surprise that he has yielded only three earned runs in two starts against the Giants.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
San Francisco starts Logan Webb today.
While he is a strong "over" pitcher, he has benefitted from getting the second-most run support among NL pitchers, which he won't be able to count on with Gallen pitching for Arizona.
Webb vs. Arizona Batters
Throughout his career, Webb has always been solid when facing Arizona at home.
On July 12 of this season, he shut out the Diamondbacks over six innings in San Francisco.
Last year, he faced Arizona once at home and allowed zero earned runs in five innings.
The list continues.
Few Arizona batters present a positive history with Webb on the mound.
One of those few is Ketel Marte, and he is injured.
After taking a few days off, he finally had an at-bat yesterday, but he did not get a hit.
Marte remains listed as day-to-day with a hamstring injury.
Parlay Verdict
Expect a win from Colorado and a pitcher's duel in San Francisco.
Because, to me, it feels greedy to put a +200 underdog in a parlay, I recommend taking Colorado on the run-line and parlaying the Rockies RL with the Arizona/San Francisco under.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockies RL at -105 & Diamondbacks/Giants Under 7 at -105 at +271 odds with BetOnline
