Even the Rockies Won’t Cool Down Sizzling A’s
Colorado hosts Oakland on Saturday at 8:10 ET. Can the A’s remain the hottest team in baseball?
Athletics at Rockies
MLB Pick: Oakland
Colorado's Coors Field is notorious for being a pitcher’s nightmare. Fortunately, Oakland’s Brett Anderson (2-2, 5.46 ERA) has experience there because he pitched for the rival Dodgers and for Colorado. His pitch selection makes him an apt candidate to succeed in Denver’s altitude.
The curveball is notoriously problematic in Denver. But Anderson relies on a sinker-slider combo. He relies on his sinker most in every scenario but with two strikes, where he features his slider. When he pitched for Colorado in 2014, his fastball was one of his three primary pitches and I expect him to lean on it on Saturday because its velocity and vertical movement benefit from Denver's lack of air density.
The southpaw Anderson relies on good location. His command has been at its best in July, where he’s struck out 10 batters and walked only three. He places the ball where it’s hardest to hit—away from the middle and towards the corners, lowest row, and peripheries of the zone. In July, 12.45% of his pitches are hitting the lowest left corner. His strike rate isn’t high because he’s a plate nibbler. By itself, his stuff isn’t amazing enough to make batters whiff against his pitches when they land in the zone, so opponents make extremely consistent contact against his strikes without swinging at a high percentage of them.
But when he’s on his game, he’s a master at using the borders of the zone to manipulate opposing batters to swing at pitches that almost miss or would have barely caught the plate. His favorite whiff pitches are the slider and change-up, which, when they’re strikes, hit the lowest row of the zone 50% of the time, but, overall, miss the zone more often. He makes too many location errors with his change-up, which is why he doesn’t throw it often. But opponents are batting .222 and slugging .278 against his slider, with only two doubles.
Anderson is enjoying his career-best month. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 3.13 in July. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares what a team’s slugging rate is with what it should be, based on quality of contact, the Rockies are the sixth-most overachieving team against his three favorite pitches, the fastball, sinker, and slider, and eighth-most against his two favorites, from lefties. They're due for statistical regression.
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Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela (3-3, 5.55 ERA) has conceded 10 runs in his past two starts with high line drive and hard contact rates.
Senzatela leans heavily on his fastball, throwing it with between 60 and 70% frequency and relying on it most in all scenarios. His location can be problematic. It hits the heart of the plate with 6.75% frequency, which he compensates for somewhat with its average 95 mph velocity—although this number is a little inflated by Denver’s climate.
Starting pitchers struggle to survive with so little variety in their pitching arsenal because opposing lineups eventually figure them out. Oakland backers may need patience because Senzatela’s numbers spike when pitching the third time through the opposing batting order. In this scenario, his FIP is six. He strikes out way fewer batters and surrenders more homers. This trend may persuade bettors to live bet Oakland. The young righty has experimented with a change-up, but hasn’t exuded the confidence to throw it often. He also mixes in a slider, especially when he’s ahead in the count.
The A's match up well. They rank third in slugging against his two favorite pitches, the fastball and slider, from righties, and are metrically the fifth-most underachieving team. Against his favorite pitch, they rank fourth in slugging and are the fourth-most underachieving team. They are enjoying statistical progression, averaging over nine runs in their past five games. Watch for Matt Chapman, who is slugging .520 in his past seven days. Khris Davis is slugging 1.000 with six homers.
Colorado hosts Oakland on Saturday at 8:10 ET. Can the A’s remain the hottest team in baseball?
Athletics at Rockies
MLB Pick: Oakland
Colorado's Coors Field is notorious for being a pitcher’s nightmare. Fortunately, Oakland’s Brett Anderson (2-2, 5.46 ERA) has experience there because he pitched for the rival Dodgers and for Colorado. His pitch selection makes him an apt candidate to succeed in Denver’s altitude.
The curveball is notoriously problematic in Denver. But Anderson relies on a sinker-slider combo. He relies on his sinker most in every scenario but with two strikes, where he features his slider. When he pitched for Colorado in 2014, his fastball was one of his three primary pitches and I expect him to lean on it on Saturday because its velocity and vertical movement benefit from Denver's lack of air density.
The southpaw Anderson relies on good location. His command has been at its best in July, where he’s struck out 10 batters and walked only three. He places the ball where it’s hardest to hit—away from the middle and towards the corners, lowest row, and peripheries of the zone. In July, 12.45% of his pitches are hitting the lowest left corner. His strike rate isn’t high because he’s a plate nibbler. By itself, his stuff isn’t amazing enough to make batters whiff against his pitches when they land in the zone, so opponents make extremely consistent contact against his strikes without swinging at a high percentage of them.
But when he’s on his game, he’s a master at using the borders of the zone to manipulate opposing batters to swing at pitches that almost miss or would have barely caught the plate. His favorite whiff pitches are the slider and change-up, which, when they’re strikes, hit the lowest row of the zone 50% of the time, but, overall, miss the zone more often. He makes too many location errors with his change-up, which is why he doesn’t throw it often. But opponents are batting .222 and slugging .278 against his slider, with only two doubles.
Anderson is enjoying his career-best month. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 3.13 in July. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares what a team’s slugging rate is with what it should be, based on quality of contact, the Rockies are the sixth-most overachieving team against his three favorite pitches, the fastball, sinker, and slider, and eighth-most against his two favorites, from lefties. They're due for statistical regression.
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Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela (3-3, 5.55 ERA) has conceded 10 runs in his past two starts with high line drive and hard contact rates.
Senzatela leans heavily on his fastball, throwing it with between 60 and 70% frequency and relying on it most in all scenarios. His location can be problematic. It hits the heart of the plate with 6.75% frequency, which he compensates for somewhat with its average 95 mph velocity—although this number is a little inflated by Denver’s climate.
Starting pitchers struggle to survive with so little variety in their pitching arsenal because opposing lineups eventually figure them out. Oakland backers may need patience because Senzatela’s numbers spike when pitching the third time through the opposing batting order. In this scenario, his FIP is six. He strikes out way fewer batters and surrenders more homers. This trend may persuade bettors to live bet Oakland. The young righty has experimented with a change-up, but hasn’t exuded the confidence to throw it often. He also mixes in a slider, especially when he’s ahead in the count.
The A's match up well. They rank third in slugging against his two favorite pitches, the fastball and slider, from righties, and are metrically the fifth-most underachieving team. Against his favorite pitch, they rank fourth in slugging and are the fourth-most underachieving team. They are enjoying statistical progression, averaging over nine runs in their past five games. Watch for Matt Chapman, who is slugging .520 in his past seven days. Khris Davis is slugging 1.000 with six homers.
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