MLB Parlay for June 21: A Bet That Pays (+335)
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts Ryan Feltner whose high ERA may make him look unreliable today.
However, Feltner's ERA creates a misleading impression of him.
First of all, his 4.85 ERA masks a significantly stronger 3.94 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
His ERA suffers from an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that conceals his ability to induce soft contact.
Secondly, he has only started five games this season.
It is easy, therefore, for one or two bad games to make his ERA very high.
He performed poorly against Atlanta and Philadelphia, two teams that match up very well against his arsenal.
Feltner vs. Marlin Batters
Atlanta and Philadelphia match up well against Feltner because they rank top-five in slugging against his favorite pitches.
Primarily, Feltner throws a fastball and slider.
These two pitches make up just over three quarters of his repertoire.
He has thrived against every lineup that, unlike the Braves and Phillies, ranks outside
the top five in slugging against these two pitches from righties.
One of those teams was, in fact, Miami.
On May 30, Feltner faced the Marlins in Colorado's extremely hitters-friendly ballpark.
Despite pitching in that high altitude, Feltner allowed one run in seven innings.
A Rising Star
Feltner is a youngster with an extremely bright future.
His fastball velocity ranks in the 67th percentile, which is good, not great.
However, batters' perception of his fastball velocity is accentuated by the unique effectiveness with which he plays this pitch off his slider.
The slider is Feltner's second-favorite pitch. Its average velocity is over 10 mph slower than that of his fastball.
It is especially hard to hit a 95 mph heater when you know that you may have to hit a pitch that is vastly slower.
As a result, batters repeatedly struggle to catch up with Feltner's fastball.
Plus, its spin rate is excellent.
So, batters may miss his fastball not only because of its velocity but also because it is difficult to track its trajectory and location.
For example, Feltner will often elevate his fastball in order to create the appearance of rising action such that batters swing underneath it.
When Feltner dominated Marlin batters, he emphasized this pitch even more than he usually does, and they couldn't figure it out.
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts southpaw Daniel Castano tonight.
Castano's ERA is perfect, but he's only pitched 10.2 innings.
Moreover, his 92.3 percent strand rate is unsustainable.
Castano vs. Colorado batters
The Rockies are underdogs tonight because oddsmakers fail to appreciate the extent to which it matters whether they are facing a right- or left-handed starting pitcher.
Whereas they yield -5.1 units against right-handed starters, they yield +5.2 units against left-handed ones.
Watch out for CJ Cron, for example. He's slugging .594 against lefties.
Cron is a significant reason why the Rockies rank sixth in slugging against lefties.
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Bet The Run-Line
15 of Detroit's last 18 losses have come by more than one run.
It is thus statistically almost a general certainty that, if they lose, the Tigers will lose by multiple runs.
This tendency is sure to continue because of how bad Detroit's offense is.
The amount of money that they invested during the offseason in hitting has plainly not paid off.
Javier Baez, for example, is falling disturbingly short of the numbers that he generated as a Cub and Met batter.
Currently, his .319 slugging rate is the worst he's ever produced in a season.
Who's Starting for Detroit?
In order to give themselves a chance of staying competitive, they'll need excellent pitching.
Tonight, Detroit starts Beau Brieske.
I dislike Brieske tonight because, primarily, he throws a fastball, changeup, and slider, and the Red Sox rank fourth in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Boston?
Boston starts Rich Hill tonight.
He promises to succeed because the Tigers rank 29thin slugging .303 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Rockies ML at +112 & Red Sox RL (-1.5) at +105 at +335 odds with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts Ryan Feltner whose high ERA may make him look unreliable today.
However, Feltner's ERA creates a misleading impression of him.
First of all, his 4.85 ERA masks a significantly stronger 3.94 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
His ERA suffers from an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that conceals his ability to induce soft contact.
Secondly, he has only started five games this season.
It is easy, therefore, for one or two bad games to make his ERA very high.
He performed poorly against Atlanta and Philadelphia, two teams that match up very well against his arsenal.
Feltner vs. Marlin Batters
Atlanta and Philadelphia match up well against Feltner because they rank top-five in slugging against his favorite pitches.
Primarily, Feltner throws a fastball and slider.
These two pitches make up just over three quarters of his repertoire.
He has thrived against every lineup that, unlike the Braves and Phillies, ranks outside
the top five in slugging against these two pitches from righties.
One of those teams was, in fact, Miami.
On May 30, Feltner faced the Marlins in Colorado's extremely hitters-friendly ballpark.
Despite pitching in that high altitude, Feltner allowed one run in seven innings.
A Rising Star
Feltner is a youngster with an extremely bright future.
His fastball velocity ranks in the 67th percentile, which is good, not great.
However, batters' perception of his fastball velocity is accentuated by the unique effectiveness with which he plays this pitch off his slider.
The slider is Feltner's second-favorite pitch. Its average velocity is over 10 mph slower than that of his fastball.
It is especially hard to hit a 95 mph heater when you know that you may have to hit a pitch that is vastly slower.
As a result, batters repeatedly struggle to catch up with Feltner's fastball.
Plus, its spin rate is excellent.
So, batters may miss his fastball not only because of its velocity but also because it is difficult to track its trajectory and location.
For example, Feltner will often elevate his fastball in order to create the appearance of rising action such that batters swing underneath it.
When Feltner dominated Marlin batters, he emphasized this pitch even more than he usually does, and they couldn't figure it out.
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts southpaw Daniel Castano tonight.
Castano's ERA is perfect, but he's only pitched 10.2 innings.
Moreover, his 92.3 percent strand rate is unsustainable.
Castano vs. Colorado batters
The Rockies are underdogs tonight because oddsmakers fail to appreciate the extent to which it matters whether they are facing a right- or left-handed starting pitcher.
Whereas they yield -5.1 units against right-handed starters, they yield +5.2 units against left-handed ones.
Watch out for CJ Cron, for example. He's slugging .594 against lefties.
Cron is a significant reason why the Rockies rank sixth in slugging against lefties.
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Bet The Run-Line
15 of Detroit's last 18 losses have come by more than one run.
It is thus statistically almost a general certainty that, if they lose, the Tigers will lose by multiple runs.
This tendency is sure to continue because of how bad Detroit's offense is.
The amount of money that they invested during the offseason in hitting has plainly not paid off.
Javier Baez, for example, is falling disturbingly short of the numbers that he generated as a Cub and Met batter.
Currently, his .319 slugging rate is the worst he's ever produced in a season.
Who's Starting for Detroit?
In order to give themselves a chance of staying competitive, they'll need excellent pitching.
Tonight, Detroit starts Beau Brieske.
I dislike Brieske tonight because, primarily, he throws a fastball, changeup, and slider, and the Red Sox rank fourth in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Boston?
Boston starts Rich Hill tonight.
He promises to succeed because the Tigers rank 29thin slugging .303 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Rockies ML at +112 & Red Sox RL (-1.5) at +105 at +335 odds with BetOnline
