MLB Parlay for June 23: A Bet That Pays (+211)
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 12:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
Who Starts for Colorado?
Today, Colorado starts Kyle Freeland who is currently enjoying his best stretch of play in terms of collecting wins and enduring more innings.
Freeland is a great example of a pitcher who can succeed without throwing hard.
One thing that Freeland relies on instead of velocity is variety.
He throws five different pitches but none of them with as much as 25 percent frequency.
Instead, he throws his fastball, slider, sinker, curveball, and changeup from 15.1 to 24.1 percent of the time.
This level of variety makes him seem rather unpredictable to batters.
Interesting Trends
This year, Freeland is inducing ground balls at a significantly lower rate.
However, he is also cutting down the rate at which he allows home runs.
These trends are interesting because a home run is simply a long fly ball.
One way in which Freeland induces a short fly ball is by elevating his fastball and placing lots of spin on it.
His fastball ranks in the 81st percentile in spin rate, which makes batters have a harder time of tracking its trajectory.
By elevating this pitch, it gains the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath it.
Heat maps show that his fastball is the only pitch that he'll elevate consistently.
He typically excels at locating his pitches along the edges or lower regions of the strike zone.
Freeland vs. Marlin Batters
The southpaw Freeland is reliable especially today because he matches up uniquely well against Marlin batters given the pitches which he throws.
Against Freeland's five favorite pitches from lefties, the Marlins rank last-place by far, slugging .295 against them.
Who Starts for Miami?
Today, Miami starts youngster Braxton Garrett.
He made his first start of the season on June 5 and has remained since then in Miami's starting rotation.
Despite this apparent sign of confidence in Garrett, he is struggling to achieve consistent success.
Two of his three starts this season were disasters: he allowed four earned runs in 3.1 innings versus San Francisco and yielded a 6.75 ERA in his last start at the Mets.
Garrett vs. Rockie Batters
Colorado is an underdog today primarily because of its reputation for finding a significantly greater level success hitting-wise at home than on the road.
Supposedly, it can be uniquely difficult for Colorado to hit well on the road because it is acclimated to hitting in its home ballpark, which is baseball's most hitters-friendly venue.
However, the Rockies have already scored 12 runs in two games in Miami in this series.
Hitting-wise, they've enjoyed so much success in this series largely because they've gotten to face left-handed pitching.
They have one of baseball's best lineups against left-handed pitching.
Colorado ranks fifth in slugging against southpaws, which is pertinent to note for this game because Garrett is left-handed.
Among other Colorado batters, look out for Jose Iglesias, who is batting .350 against lefties.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minnesota
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Cleveland starts Zach Plesac who is coming off a fortunate start in which his 1.50 ERA masked a 5.97 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
In that start, he benefitted from an opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that was improbably low given the minimal extent to which he induced soft contact.
Plesac vs. Twin Batters
Plesac is particularly unreliable today because of his poor history in Minnesota.
He is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two career starts in the Twins' venue.
Moreover, the Twins match up well against him, ranking seventh in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Minnesota starts Devin Smeltzer who is coming off some terrible performances against non-divisional opponents.
He must be glad today to face another AL Central team because, in four starts against division rivals, Smeltzer has allowed a total of four earned runs in 25 innings.
Smeltzer vs Guardian Batters
Primarily, the southpaw Smeltzer throws a fastball, changeup, and curveball.
These pitches combine for about 94 percent of his arsenal.
He matches up well against Guardian batters because they rank 28thin slugging .324 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockies ML at +126 & Twins ML at -136 at +211 odds with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 12:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
Who Starts for Colorado?
Today, Colorado starts Kyle Freeland who is currently enjoying his best stretch of play in terms of collecting wins and enduring more innings.
Freeland is a great example of a pitcher who can succeed without throwing hard.
One thing that Freeland relies on instead of velocity is variety.
He throws five different pitches but none of them with as much as 25 percent frequency.
Instead, he throws his fastball, slider, sinker, curveball, and changeup from 15.1 to 24.1 percent of the time.
This level of variety makes him seem rather unpredictable to batters.
Interesting Trends
This year, Freeland is inducing ground balls at a significantly lower rate.
However, he is also cutting down the rate at which he allows home runs.
These trends are interesting because a home run is simply a long fly ball.
One way in which Freeland induces a short fly ball is by elevating his fastball and placing lots of spin on it.
His fastball ranks in the 81st percentile in spin rate, which makes batters have a harder time of tracking its trajectory.
By elevating this pitch, it gains the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath it.
Heat maps show that his fastball is the only pitch that he'll elevate consistently.
He typically excels at locating his pitches along the edges or lower regions of the strike zone.
Freeland vs. Marlin Batters
The southpaw Freeland is reliable especially today because he matches up uniquely well against Marlin batters given the pitches which he throws.
Against Freeland's five favorite pitches from lefties, the Marlins rank last-place by far, slugging .295 against them.
Who Starts for Miami?
Today, Miami starts youngster Braxton Garrett.
He made his first start of the season on June 5 and has remained since then in Miami's starting rotation.
Despite this apparent sign of confidence in Garrett, he is struggling to achieve consistent success.
Two of his three starts this season were disasters: he allowed four earned runs in 3.1 innings versus San Francisco and yielded a 6.75 ERA in his last start at the Mets.
Garrett vs. Rockie Batters
Colorado is an underdog today primarily because of its reputation for finding a significantly greater level success hitting-wise at home than on the road.
Supposedly, it can be uniquely difficult for Colorado to hit well on the road because it is acclimated to hitting in its home ballpark, which is baseball's most hitters-friendly venue.
However, the Rockies have already scored 12 runs in two games in Miami in this series.
Hitting-wise, they've enjoyed so much success in this series largely because they've gotten to face left-handed pitching.
They have one of baseball's best lineups against left-handed pitching.
Colorado ranks fifth in slugging against southpaws, which is pertinent to note for this game because Garrett is left-handed.
Among other Colorado batters, look out for Jose Iglesias, who is batting .350 against lefties.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minnesota
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Cleveland starts Zach Plesac who is coming off a fortunate start in which his 1.50 ERA masked a 5.97 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
In that start, he benefitted from an opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that was improbably low given the minimal extent to which he induced soft contact.
Plesac vs. Twin Batters
Plesac is particularly unreliable today because of his poor history in Minnesota.
He is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two career starts in the Twins' venue.
Moreover, the Twins match up well against him, ranking seventh in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Minnesota starts Devin Smeltzer who is coming off some terrible performances against non-divisional opponents.
He must be glad today to face another AL Central team because, in four starts against division rivals, Smeltzer has allowed a total of four earned runs in 25 innings.
Smeltzer vs Guardian Batters
Primarily, the southpaw Smeltzer throws a fastball, changeup, and curveball.
These pitches combine for about 94 percent of his arsenal.
He matches up well against Guardian batters because they rank 28thin slugging .324 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockies ML at +126 & Twins ML at -136 at +211 odds with BetOnline
