Scoring Won't Come Easy For Giants or Rockies in Saturday Matinee
Colorado (3-11) at San Francisco (6-9)
When: 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Both lineups are in a terrible spot because they must be worn down after last night's 18-inning, 5 hour-35 minute marathon. Last year, Colorado's longest two games were each 13 innings. After the first time, it scored four runs at home. After the second time, it scored zero runs in San Diego. San Francisco's longest game was 16 innings. After that game, it scored two runs in Los Angeles. Today, both lineups will have only gotten about 12 hours' rest.
After his last poor start, Colorado's Kyle Freeland (1-2, 5.40 ERA) is in a bounce-back spot. After his last five starts in which he yielded an ERA above 4.00, he yielded one lower than 3.00 in the next. San Francisco is a nice bounce-back place for him. In three career starts and 19.2 innings there, he yields a 2.29 ERA.
Freeland's repertoire enjoys variety. He relies on three different pitches with between 17 and 39 percent frequency, a fastball, sinker, and cutter. Although he barely throws it overall, he can also feature his slider. When he limited San Francisco last year to two runs over seven innings in Colorado, he threw his slider 31% of the time.
His last start was atypical in terms of his poor location and I fully expect him to rediscover the success that he had enjoyed in his prior two starts. Last year, he left the ball down the middle only 3.89% of the time. Instead, he lives off the borders of the strike zone, where his four most frequent pitch locations were. Above all, his change-up, which he loves throwing especially to righties, and sinker enjoy strong horizontal movement, which he uses to to toy with the batter's perception of whether his pitch will land for a strike or not. This year, and this has been a stated goal for himself, he's switching up the location of his pitches to appear less predictable, throwing them less often on one particular side of the zone.
Despite getting to play against him sometimes in hitters-friendly Coors Field, San Francisco batters don't enjoy good career numbers against Freeland. In 82 at-bats, their OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) is .621 against him. Buster Posey, who is anyhow suffering a horrible start to the season, which is surely due at least in part to his age and the major hip surgery that he underwent last year, and Brandon Belt are combined 7-for-32 (.218) against him. Daytime seems like a bad time for the Giants to improve their history against Freeland. They are batting .187 in day games so far, which is a major reason why the "under" is 4-1-1 in San Fran's day games.
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Giants starter Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 3.32 ERA) will look to extend his streak against the Rockies. He didn't allow a run in 13 innings against them last year in San Francisco.
One reason that sensationalists cited for Bumgarner's alleged decline was the drop in spin rate of his curveball. This year, though, his curveball is enjoying a spin rate as high as it ever has before and opponents are batting .167 against it. Besides its spin rate, which increases the deceptiveness of its location, Bumgarner's curveball is effective because of its precise location, consistently hitting the lowest left spot in the strike zone, and its versatile location, often landing in the upper spots of the zone.
His favorite weapon, though is his cutter, which he throws most frequently and leans on especially when opposing runners enter scoring position. His cutter features tight movement. It's his most consistent strike pitch, even though he often nibbles the borders of the zone with it. Also, he uses deception by making it resemble his curveball in terms of vertical and horizontal release points, so that batters don't know which pitch approaches them.
Rockie batters have accrued strong numbers against Bumgarner, but only because they succeeded against him in Colorado, where the lack of air density makes it harder for a curveball to be effective. Whether home or away, Colorado's hitters are currently struggling. They've mustered three runs in their last 40 innings. Part of the problem is health--Daniel Murphy, David Dahl and Ryan McMahon are all injured. The healthy hitters aren't helping much, though. Charlie Blackmon, for instance, is batting only .232.
Colorado (3-11) at San Francisco (6-9)
When: 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Both lineups are in a terrible spot because they must be worn down after last night's 18-inning, 5 hour-35 minute marathon. Last year, Colorado's longest two games were each 13 innings. After the first time, it scored four runs at home. After the second time, it scored zero runs in San Diego. San Francisco's longest game was 16 innings. After that game, it scored two runs in Los Angeles. Today, both lineups will have only gotten about 12 hours' rest.
After his last poor start, Colorado's Kyle Freeland (1-2, 5.40 ERA) is in a bounce-back spot. After his last five starts in which he yielded an ERA above 4.00, he yielded one lower than 3.00 in the next. San Francisco is a nice bounce-back place for him. In three career starts and 19.2 innings there, he yields a 2.29 ERA.
Freeland's repertoire enjoys variety. He relies on three different pitches with between 17 and 39 percent frequency, a fastball, sinker, and cutter. Although he barely throws it overall, he can also feature his slider. When he limited San Francisco last year to two runs over seven innings in Colorado, he threw his slider 31% of the time.
His last start was atypical in terms of his poor location and I fully expect him to rediscover the success that he had enjoyed in his prior two starts. Last year, he left the ball down the middle only 3.89% of the time. Instead, he lives off the borders of the strike zone, where his four most frequent pitch locations were. Above all, his change-up, which he loves throwing especially to righties, and sinker enjoy strong horizontal movement, which he uses to to toy with the batter's perception of whether his pitch will land for a strike or not. This year, and this has been a stated goal for himself, he's switching up the location of his pitches to appear less predictable, throwing them less often on one particular side of the zone.
Despite getting to play against him sometimes in hitters-friendly Coors Field, San Francisco batters don't enjoy good career numbers against Freeland. In 82 at-bats, their OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) is .621 against him. Buster Posey, who is anyhow suffering a horrible start to the season, which is surely due at least in part to his age and the major hip surgery that he underwent last year, and Brandon Belt are combined 7-for-32 (.218) against him. Daytime seems like a bad time for the Giants to improve their history against Freeland. They are batting .187 in day games so far, which is a major reason why the "under" is 4-1-1 in San Fran's day games.
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Giants starter Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 3.32 ERA) will look to extend his streak against the Rockies. He didn't allow a run in 13 innings against them last year in San Francisco.
One reason that sensationalists cited for Bumgarner's alleged decline was the drop in spin rate of his curveball. This year, though, his curveball is enjoying a spin rate as high as it ever has before and opponents are batting .167 against it. Besides its spin rate, which increases the deceptiveness of its location, Bumgarner's curveball is effective because of its precise location, consistently hitting the lowest left spot in the strike zone, and its versatile location, often landing in the upper spots of the zone.
His favorite weapon, though is his cutter, which he throws most frequently and leans on especially when opposing runners enter scoring position. His cutter features tight movement. It's his most consistent strike pitch, even though he often nibbles the borders of the zone with it. Also, he uses deception by making it resemble his curveball in terms of vertical and horizontal release points, so that batters don't know which pitch approaches them.
Rockie batters have accrued strong numbers against Bumgarner, but only because they succeeded against him in Colorado, where the lack of air density makes it harder for a curveball to be effective. Whether home or away, Colorado's hitters are currently struggling. They've mustered three runs in their last 40 innings. Part of the problem is health--Daniel Murphy, David Dahl and Ryan McMahon are all injured. The healthy hitters aren't helping much, though. Charlie Blackmon, for instance, is batting only .232.
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