College Football: Big Changes for 2016

[WISEGUY36]

Schools and Head football coaches are searching out new ways to gain a competative
edge in their conferences this season.
If the goal is to play for Championships every year , teams must do 3 things going forward.

1. Schools are upgrading their sos by replacing those FCS teams with much tougher opponents
to stand up to the scrutiny of the Playoff committee. I believe this trend will continue as well
as get even tougher in the future.

2. To meet the challenge of playing tougher schedules , schools are aggressively recruiting a higher
caliber of player. the downside to this is that they will probably have that player only for 3 years.
If they don't play them ,Players will just choose to transfer. This means that Head Coaches will have
to acquire HR skills to avoid what Kevin Sumlin is going through at TxAM currently.
For CFB cappers , it now pays to study and grade various teams recruiting classes going forward as a
key tool in establishing team depth each year,to find potential weaknesses on O & D in the matchups
they play this coming season.

3. They must honestly evaluate their performance the previous season and promptly move to correct deficiencies.
This is a sign that in some programs possibly , School administrators have expressed their desire for change or
at least an improvement in results to their Head Coach.

Rapid improvement in results can be accomplished in 2 ways :

A. Bring in a bevy of key JUCO transfers.

B. Improve the productivity of your coordinators and position coaches. This is happening on a high level this season
I expect this to be the norm moving forward. Productivity can be improved by setting measurable goals for coordinators
to be strictly held to. In the future , It's going to take more than being friends with your H.C. at most major colleges.
Productivity can also be improved by upgrading the person that holds the title. This is very much in evidence this coming season,
and schools appear to be willing to pay for a proven coordinator if They think it will improve performance.

Some examples are :

Tennessee hires Penn St. Defensive Coord.

Tx AM hires UCLA Offensive Coord,

Oregon hires Brady Hoke

Arizona hires Boise St. Defensive coord.

Michigan hires Boston College Defensive Coordinator

LSU hires Wisconsin Defensive coordinator


These are just some examples ( there are many more ) that may indicate which programs are under scrutiny as well as pressure to
perform at a higher level.


Something to think about.

Best of Luck to All :shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[Schrute]

Bill Connelly has already started his 2016 previews...dude is amazing

 

[Schrute]

Who else do you use to make your preaseason PRs and/or gather preseason info?

I have a CFB List on Twitter that is incredibly helpful in terms of injuries and suspensions

Dave Bartoo does pretty good work

Honestly I've been using Steele less and less with Connelly's info. However I did like Steele's FCS online magazine last year

 

[Schrute]

Do you have links to VI News and Ourlads stuff?

I totally forgot about the DonBest injury stuff...it's an absolute must check every day of the season

 

[STEED]

Appreciate the contribution...great stuff.

:cheers3:

 

[Schrute]

What are your overall thoughts on JUCO guys?

I don't adjust a whole lot for them because they are so unpredictable. Though some of them have the talent there is question as to how they mesh with the team coming in and taking the spot of a guy who's been with the team for 2-3 years. There's also issues of them learning the playbook immediately...one because they're short on time and two because they're in JUCO for a reason

 

[Schrute]

Nah I wasn't questioning you by any means. Just wondering how much you accounted for JUCOs when looking at a team from 2015-16. I acknowledge them in my notes but rarely adjust ratings very much.

The Clemson vs Auburn game is an auto over for me barring multiple offseason suspensions/arrests. I just pray we see a total of 65-68 at open. I see it as a 45-38 type of game. I only mention it specifically because you mentioned Franklin. I'm not sure he starts that game though

 

[scarf31]

Wise, really interesting in-depth perspective you've been providing and it greatly appreciated by all. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

I do want to reference your initial post regarding coaching changes and the upgrades you referenced in your first 2 posts. How significantly do you make your own internal adjustments for a team switching a coordinator/adding to staff?

Where I'm going with this is that I am curious as to whether you are only taking changes made for the positive side (as upgrades) or are you also adjusting for teams that make poor hires in your opinion (as downgrades) in your beginning to put your work together in the preseason? Any thoughts would be appreciated and thanks again for contributing a unique and in-depth opinion so well researched. This is something that I'm sure I speak for all of the members in saying is sincerely appreciated.

 

[Schrute]

Don't forget Kevin Steele was a former DC at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. He was the DC during the Orange Bowl game when WVU put up 70+ and was fired afterward so there is both familiarity and hatred there.

 

[Schrute]

Let's hammer out info all offseason WiseGuy. I mess around with other sports but CFB units are my bread and butter and the reason I gamble

 

[Schrute]

That's why I'm saying Kevin Steele is probably a downgrade for Auburn :shake:

Agreed. The loss of Craig was big as well but maybe from a future recruiting standpoint

 

[Schrute]

Good work on the NHL plays

 

[Schrute]

I've been blown away with how well Kiffin has adjusted his offense but also with how Saban has let him open it up.

 

[Schrute]

Wise...have you started 2017 season prep work yet? I obviously read articles/twitter daily but I haven't started with notes yet. However I suppose it's time as nothing much should be changing aside from suspensions and possible grad transfers

 

[Schrute]

hahaha I guess...that's quite the pre-order

 

[scarf31]

To expand on this somewhat , since there are more diverse Offensive schemes, Defensive schemes have bee forced to evolve to counteract them. If I play in a conference
that plays a lot of HUNH, zone read or power run out of a pro set I'm hopeful that my D. Coord will concoct a defense to contain it. You only have to look at Bama's
struggles vs the spread to over the years to see that DC's struggle sometimes due to either scheme or personnel.
This means that I will grade a change on how I think they will play vs the schemes / talent they will face this season. Going back to Kevin Steele for a moment , IMO he will
struggle at auburn and is a downgrade , while I feel LSU's hire of Wisconsin's Dave Aranda is an upgrade .
:shake:

Appreciate that response, Wise. So just to expand a bit on something you mentioned earlier...are you using these spring games as a strong adjustment factor in your capping of the coaches/schemes/execution for the upcoming season? I've never really thought too much about them in this fashion and I would surmise that these things you're noting would probably be extremely useful especially during the 1st month of the season.

I guess I've never heard anyone expand on coordinator coaching and their ability to adjust as an intangible in their preseason adjustments.

Not to drive this concept into the ground on you, but do you have a "scale" for how Head Coaches make halftime adjustments (either good or bad) as well? Everyone in some fashion take a HFA into play on a scaling system, but the HC consideration of their actual game "feel" is something I think is underdiscussed. This is something that I would imagine would be a great factor in considering 2nd half plays, of which I feel are often more full of value than full game plays.
Sorry to barrage you with questions, but I find this to be an interesting angle that I really haven't delved into that deeply, so any thoughts are appreciated. :cheers3:

 

[HUNT]

Great thread.

 

[eggman]

Great read so far, thanks for sharing your thoughts I look forward to stalking your thread this fall....

 

[cubsker]

I find Bartoo pretty much worthless. He just runs numbers without even attempting to put them in context and I just don't get any sense of intelligence when reading his twitter.

 

[TheGarfather]

I predict an unmitigated disaster. Well, really that is just another few years like the last few.

 

[P-Unit]

wow, Illinois just took Tampa off the hook big time. They are the big winners in this deal. Clause in his Tampa contract was ANY employment (not just pro or doing TV) would count against what they owed him on his deal.

 

[RetroVK]

Wondering if overs in ivy league games will be worth a look. They aren't going to tackle in practice at all as agreed to by all the coaches. I won't have access to lines for it but my gut tells me that it has to lead to worse tackling. Might also be a decent angle against early ooc opponents who will have an advantage.

 

[P-Unit]

Wondering if overs in ivy league games will be worth a look. They aren't going to tackle in practice at all as agreed to by all the coaches. I won't have access to lines for it but my gut tells me that it has to lead to worse tackling. Might also be a decent angle against early ooc opponents who will have an advantage.

St. Johns (MN) whose coach is the all time winningest coach in college football history hasn't allowed tackling in practice for the better part of 30 years or so. Makes no difference for them. They won't tackle but they will likely focus on technique. IMO, I think the opposite will happen and they will actually tackle BETTER because they will practice using the right technique more. Those players will be eager to hit somebody after not getting any live hitting in practice.

 

[RetroVK]

St. Johns (MN) whose coach is the all time winningest coach in college football history hasn't allowed tackling in practice for the better part of 30 years or so. Makes no difference for them. They won't tackle but they will likely focus on technique. IMO, I think the opposite will happen and they will actually tackle BETTER because they will practice using the right technique more. Those players will be eager to hit somebody after not getting any live hitting in practice.

Thanks for this. I was operating in complete "theory land" and it could very well be a bad conclusion that I was making.

Wiseguy - As I recall, they blew out ULL even worse the following year. My brain tends to view it the way you are but P-Unit has successfully pulled the Corso "Not so fast my friend" on me. good thread btw.

 

[P-Unit]

lol, I could very well just be pulling this out of my ass. I'm not saying everybody will tackle better, but I'd say the better coached teams will be less affected by not having tackling in practice. I don't know the coaches in the league well, but I would definitely take it on a case by case basis as opposed to generally thinking that all defenses will be worse. I do think some will adjust well to it.

 

[RetroVK]

No idea if true but they might have been pretty far into the depth chart in the third and fourth qtr of that game.

 

[RetroVK]

UCLA

UCLA has a new O Coordinator with Kennedy Polamalu replacing Noel Mazzone who went to Texas A&M.

This means a shift from the Spread to a Pro Set . This should help Josh Rosen in his second year as he was

rated the # 2 pocket passer when he came out in 2015 . The bad news is that UCLA loses 3 starting WR's

UCLA ranked # 20 nationally by my metric in rushing last season which should help in the transition , and

most of their O line returns.

Tough break for ucla

 

[twinkie13]

To expand on this somewhat , since there are more diverse Offensive schemes, Defensive schemes have bee forced to evolve to counteract them. If I play in a conference
that plays a lot of HUNH, zone read or power run out of a pro set I'm hopeful that my D. Coord will concoct a defense to contain it. You only have to look at Bama's
struggles vs the spread to over the years to see that DC's struggle sometimes due to either scheme or personnel.
This means that I will grade a change on how I think they will play vs the schemes / talent they will face this season. Going back to Kevin Steele for a moment , IMO he will
struggle at Auburn and is a downgrade , while I feel LSU's hire of Wisconsin's Dave Aranda is an upgrade .


:shake:

It is, but how soon he can switch to his 3-4 and with what horses.....time will tell

many feel they will not be true 3-4 just yet and will have some troubles, but he is definitely not shying away from making the switch

 

[RetroVK]

When a Coordinator makes a scheme change , depending on their opponent, they may be forced to play a " hybrid " in some situations until someone
steps up or they recruit to fill the gap. For Dave Aranda , playing a " hybrid " defense is part of his defensive strategy , and he's good at it..
He's got some good athletes to work with at LSU, ( better than he had at Wisconsin which was the #3 defense last year ) , so He'll be OK.

Will the Tigers get better production from the QB position this Season ?

RB is in a tough spot IMO. Were it not for the rules, he would be heading to the NFL. If you are LF, do you ask to carry it less to avoid injury? Harris was only a Soph and I thought he looked ok at times last year. Team has the chance to be pretty good if the answer to your question above is "Yes". What do you think of Harris? His targets?

 

[twinkie13]

RB is in a tough spot IMO. Were it not for the rules, he would be heading to the NFL. If you are LF, do you ask to carry it less to avoid injury? Harris was only a Soph and I thought he looked ok at times last year. Team has the chance to be pretty good if the answer to your question above is "Yes". What do you think of Harris? His targets?

the WRs should be really really good this year....ton of 6-5 guys on the field

 

[twinkie13]

and fwiw, they say Harris looks much better

kid has the talent

 

[twinkie13]

also as far as RBs go, LSU took ONE last year.....Devin White

and he just flipped to LB.....wait til you see this kid. He is an athletic freak.

 

[twinkie13]

Derrius Guice will see some time at RB and he looked the deal last year...not LF good, but pretty damn nice

 

[twinkie13]

LOTTA SPRING GAMES TODAY

post if you watch

 

[horses]

Same to you Wiseguy; I can tell you take your craft seriously. Hope to meet you in person at the GN in July if you attend in person.

 

[horses]

Thanks Bud. I'm not sure what the date is yet , but once I know , I'll make arrangements to be there. :shake2:

I would count on 8 July being the date.

 

[captjohn67]

Can't reply with quote for some reason, but in response to post 82. This is Malzahns last year on the plains. They won't have a winning record.

 

[twinkie13]

wise i hope you are around during the year:shake2:

 

[booksbestfriend]

Can't reply with quote for some reason, but in response to post 82. This is Malzahns last year on the plains. They won't have a winning record.

Being w/out Byron Cowart is going to make it tougher. He and 3 others were arrested yesterday for possession.

 

[gps_3]

Having lived in Alabama most of my life, I see two likely scenarios with Auburn moving forward. One, the poor spring game performance and these arrests are harbingers of what's to come, they have a losing record, and Gus is let go on Sunday after they play Alabama, OR, they somehow catch lightning in a bottle, win multiple games they had no business winning, use claims of cheating and luck as motivation and somehow win the SEC and make the playoffs. As an Alabama guy, I'd put the odds of either one at even money right now. Seen it too often

 

[twinkie13]

Having lived in Alabama most of my life, I see two likely scenarios with Auburn moving forward. One, the poor spring game performance and these arrests are harbingers of what's to come, they have a losing record, and Gus is let go on Sunday after they play Alabama, OR, they somehow catch lightning in a bottle, win multiple games they had no business winning, use claims of cheating and luck as motivation and somehow win the SEC and make the playoffs. As an Alabama guy, I'd put the odds of either one at even money right now. Seen it too often

:rofl:

 

[Alan Tongue]

I think Harbaughs mouth maybe setting Michigan up for a massive beatdown next time they play an SEC school

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

Big news for Florida. Antonio Callaway is not enrolled in Summer A classes. He has to enroll in Summer B to still be a part of the team.

 

[RetroVK]

keep the info coming, wise

 

[s--k]

Lots of Coaching / coordinator changes already for the 2017 season .

Tracy Claeys just got let go at Minnesota

Have to think that deal with the sexual assault and his comments on the player boycott were driving factors.

 

[RetroVK]

He made the wrong choice. BUT ... he was in a hard spot. He has no chance of sticking around if the kids boycott either. Had the coach not stood with the players, who knows how dicey that whole thing actually gets. Don't get me wrong, he was in the clear wrong and deserved to be fired. I am just saying that it might have been harder for him than some of us think for him to find the clearly correct decision.