Coca-Cola 600 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Coca-Cola 600 Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Coca-Cola 600
Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 6 p.m. ET (FOX) at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, North Carolina

Last Week's Race

Last Sunday, the All-Star Race took place at the Texas Motor Speedway.

This race was an emotional one for Ryan Blaney in several respects.

At first, he thought he won the race.

However, the caution flag appeared just before his car crossed the finishing line.

This caution flag appearance meant that he could not win the race because, per the All-Star Race rules, a race cannot end in a caution flag.

So, he had to participate in an overtime session in which he was able to replicate the initial outcome.

Because he, in a sense, won the race twice, he certainly deserved the victory, although Denny Hamlin was very close behind him.

Blaney's win netted him a million dollars in prize money.

Because it is very hard to win back-to-back races as it happens quite rarely, we will exclude Blaney from the list of our potential candidates to win.

Race Info

This week, the NASCAR Cup Series brings us to the Coca-Cola 600, which takes place in the Charlotte Motor Speedway, which is positioned just outside of Charlotte.

For this race, drivers must complete a total of 400 laps.

As is only rarely the case, there will be four stages for this event.

Stage 1 ends upon completion of the 100th lap.

Stage 2 requires drivers to complete 100 more laps.

Stage 3 ends with the 300th lap.

Stage 4 consists in the last 100 laps.

By the middle of the week, an entry list was posted for this event.

37 teams/drivers are listed out of 40 possible spots.

So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will participate in the race.

We can expect all of the usual suspects.

As for the starting lineup, this is no longer a midweek product of a predetermined formula.

The starting lineup this year gets determined in qualifying.

Qualifying for this race will take place on Saturday night.

It is scheduled to begin at 7:35 ET, directly following a 35-minute practice session, and it will end at 9 p.m.

For this race, qualifying will be single-vehicle, single-lap and it will last two rounds.

Fuel Milage

This event is one in which strategy is particularly important. Drivers need to have good team support in order to follow a good strategy.

The particularly important strategic element is planning fuel milage.

Successful drivers will be more likely to plan well for fuel and to have sufficient gas in the tank in the race's final moments.

Track Info

This track is a quad oval consisting of an asphalt surface.

Each lap is 1.5 miles long.

So, in completing 400 laps, drivers will have accumulated 600 miles.

The banking at this track is pretty good. The turns are banked at 24 degrees and the straights at five degrees.

Banking is important because drivers use it to corral momentum for their vehicles.

So, when there is more banking then there is more potential for greater speeds.

Drivers I Dislike

I dislike Kurt Busch, although he has received some positive media attention in recent weeks.

This is a bad event in which to trust Kurt Busch because he has finished outside the top 15 in more than half of his last 18 tries here.

With Kurt Busch, there is a lot of potential for failure at this track.

Given this reality, this track is one of his worst historically.

Who Will Win?

My favorite driver for this race is Chase Elliott.

He has thrived most recently at this track, finishing fourth, second, first, and second in his last four tries.

While his last two races this season has been poor, they took place at two of his worst tracks historically.

This venue is just the one for him to bounce back.

Best Bet: Chase Elliott Outright at +650 with Bovada
 
This is a long race, so I am looking to bet on Austin Dillon, Harvick, and Buescher. I also think Keselowski is getting better from week to week so I will also be on him. Bell is also becoming a steady driver and is consistent on tracks of this type.

Dillon doe not qualify well so I will wait to bet on him hoping to get better odds.

I will be fading Bubba (because he and his crew tend to fuck stuff up and the longer the race the more opportunities to fuck shit up and Logano (he is not that good on tracks like this).

So far I have bet all of these for 1 unit:

Buescher -105 over Bubba (BAS)
Keselowski -115 over Bubba (BAS)
Keselowski -115 over Erik Jones (Bovada)
Bell -110 over Logano (BAS)

Considering:

Harvick -125 over Cindric (Depends on how well Harvick looks in practice and qualifying)
Dillon -125 over Briscoe (I will bet this after practice and qualifying unless Briscoe looks unusually strong)
Keselowski -115 over Almirola (Almirola has been qualifying well so I will wait)
Buescher -115 over Almirola (same as above)
Dillon Top 10 +175
Keselowski Top 10 +190
Buescher Top 10 +240
 
I played a few small Xfinity bets:

$20 Berry to win +850 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Berry -130 over Allmendinger (Bovada)
Hemric +125 over Brandon Jones (BAS)
 
This is a long race, so I am looking to bet on Austin Dillon, Harvick, and Buescher. I also think Keselowski is getting better from week to week so I will also be on him. Bell is also becoming a steady driver and is consistent on tracks of this type.

Dillon doe not qualify well so I will wait to bet on him hoping to get better odds.

I will be fading Bubba (because he and his crew tend to fuck stuff up and the longer the race the more opportunities to fuck shit up and Logano (he is not that good on tracks like this).

So far I have bet all of these for 1 unit:

Buescher -105 over Bubba (BAS)
Keselowski -115 over Bubba (BAS)
Keselowski -115 over Erik Jones (Bovada)
Bell -110 over Logano (BAS)

Considering:

Harvick -125 over Cindric (Depends on how well Harvick looks in practice and qualifying)
Dillon -125 over Briscoe (I will bet this after practice and qualifying unless Briscoe looks unusually strong)
Keselowski -115 over Almirola (Almirola has been qualifying well so I will wait)
Buescher -115 over Almirola (same as above)
Dillon Top 10 +175
Keselowski Top 10 +190
Buescher Top 10 +240
And Keselowski spins in qualifying after not being that fast in practice. He did not hit anything but will start at the back. I wish I did not bet Keselowski vs Bubba

Bubba qualified 7th.

Austin Dillon qualified well for him (16th).

Buescher qualified mid-pack (19th)

Toyotas were 1-4 in qualifying. Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Bell, Kyle Busch

Chastain (22nd), Logano (23rd), Almirola (24th), Erik Jones (25th), and Stenhouse (29th) did not qualify well.

Larson brushes the wall in practice and will start at the back. He was at the top of the speed chart in practice.

I will look to bet more on Bell and Buescher and probably Keselowski vs Jones and Almirola with better odds.
I will be betting Austin Dillon matchups and maybe Top 10.
I will be fading Logano, Almirola, Erik Jones, and Stenhouse (there is some issue with his car).
 
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I added:

2 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Stenhouse (BAS & Bovada)
Hamlin -110 & -115 over Elliott (BAS)

1 unit:
Buescher -115 over Almirola (Bovada)
McDowell -130 over Gilliland (I wish I could bet more on this) (BAS)
Bell +115 over Blaney (BAS)
Truex -115 over Elliott (Bovada)

$20 Bell to win +1600 (Bovada)
 
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For whatever reason, there is not a lot of confidence in Hamlin. He was fast in practice and is on the pole. He finished 2nd in the All-Star race last weekend in Texas which is a similar track and 4th in Kansas the previous weekend, a similar track. I may add Hamlin -115 over Larson (who has to start in the rear of the field) and Hamlin -125 over Chastain. It is hard to bet against Larson and Chastain so I kinda get it.

Speaking of Kansas, remember that 5 of the Top 6 at the finish were Toyotas. 1. Kurt Busch, 2. Larson, 3. Kyle Busch, 4. Hamlin, 5. Bell, 6. Truex. It is hard not to like the top Toyota drivers today in their matchups.

Regarding Bell, he finished 5th in Kansas and 10th in the All-Star race in Texas. He hit the wall hard in the race and still managed to finish 10th. His odds to win today are good.
 
I added this because I do not understand the line movement. I will take Dillon at +money

2 units:
Austin Dillon +120 & +130 over Erik Jones (BAS)

$10 Bell to win (BM)
 
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I have:

2 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Stenhouse (BAS & Bovada)
Austin Dillon +120 & +130 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Hamlin -110 & -115 over Elliott (BAS)

1 unit:
Bell -110 over Logano (BAS)
Bell +115 over Blaney (BAS)
Bell Top 10 -135 (Bovada)
McDowell -130 over Gilliland (BAS)
Truex -115 over Elliott (Bovada)
Kurt Busch Top 10 -125 (Bovada)
Buescher -115 over Almirola (Bovada)
Buescher -105 over Bubba (BAS) Hopefully Bubba's pit issues and mistakes continue today.
Keselowski -115 over Bubba (BAS) Hopefully Bubba's pit issues and mistakes continue today.
Keselowski -115 over Erik Jones (Bovada)

$20 Bell to win +1600 (Bovada)
$10 Bell to win +1500 (BM)
 
What a crazy race. Just had the 18th caution, just wild stuff every stage, and then it ramped up in craziness right at the end. Will be interesting to see who hangs on to win here with 2 laps left after the caution, but what a wild race.

Austin Dillon has to be the most upset out of everyone after that last wreck.
 
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What a crazy race. Just had the 18th caution, just wild stuff every stage, and then it ramped up in craziness right at the end. Will be interesting to see who hangs on to win here with 2 laps left after the caution, but what a wild race.

Austin Dillon has to be the most upset out of everyone after that last wreck.
Yeah, I had the most $$$ on him and he wrecked while in 1st place coming to take the white flag. He was only a few inches from clearing Larson.
 
I have:

2 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Stenhouse (BAS & Bovada)
Austin Dillon +120 & +130 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Hamlin -110 & -115 over Elliott (BAS)

1 unit:
Bell -110 over Logano (BAS)
Bell +115 over Blaney (BAS)
Bell Top 10 -135 (Bovada)
McDowell -130 over Gilliland (BAS)
Truex -115 over Elliott (Bovada)
Kurt Busch Top 10 -125 (Bovada)
Buescher -115 over Almirola (Bovada)
Buescher -105 over Bubba (BAS) Hopefully Bubba's pit issues and mistakes continue today.
Keselowski -115 over Bubba (BAS) Hopefully Bubba's pit issues and mistakes continue today.
Keselowski -115 over Erik Jones (Bovada)

$20 Bell to win +1600 (Bovada)
$10 Bell to win +1500 (BM)
-1.15 units

An 8.8 unit swing with Dillon wrecking coming to take the white flag, just before the start/finish line while in the lead. Just did not have Larson cleared.
 
Charlotte:

Xfinity +2.83 units
Cup -1.15 units
Total +1.68 units

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +7.7 units
Cup +41.58 units
Both +49.28 units

I think I have lost whatever edge I had early in the season in the Cup series. Just treading water now.
Maybe I should bet more on the Xfinity races, which I have been winning when I bet them. I need to think about it.
Next week will be a light week anyway with new tracks in both series.
 
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