Coaches and Favorites Covering Spreads--

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I am truly believing that in todays NFL it is run by incompetent Coaching staffs--

What I am trying to find out here if there is a direct co relation between spreads covered as favorites and COACHES--

What I am thinking is that for ex today Jauron- he will never cover big chalk at home because IMO he is just too stupid to know how to.

Ex- End of the game they complete one nice pass to the 32 yard line with over a minute left. They run the ball 3 straight times and get to the 28 yard line to set up a 45 yard field goal. Is he really that conservative and that dumb to think a 45 yard field goal in WINDY stadium is a sure thing??

He played that like they were at the opponents 15 yard line..

I thought to myself that if this game was played 100 times and Dick Jauron was -5.5 he would never cover a game. I just dont think he has any clue about football to cover that spread.

The theory that avg teams cannot cover spreads is starting to come true. Arizona has not covered a spread over 7 points in something crazy like 7 years..

Andy Reid is not capable of covering a spread over 7, I think when you look at coaches and their inability to change a QB, get a team ready, have an offense that works, that in reality no one really considers coaches and focusses only on the players---

JEFFREY FISHER-- This man has covered many spreads this year--- He has done it on the road and at home.. I dont think its the players, I really think its FISHER- He is smart, prepared, good motivator, just a good football coach, players coach, disciplined, non emotional, confident-


JOHNATHON GRUDEN- The Grude has covered spreads at home when they play at home, it appears that he at least has some idea how to coach a game and get his team ready at home.

Refs also know they cant pull shit on Fisher and Gruden because they know the rules and the games that refs play.

Andy REID- My buddy called me and said that Andy Reid looks like a Fat ass Trucker and has no business in the NFL--- He does look lost and just like a Confused FAT MAN---

I really think it shows that certain coaches abilities definitely have an effect on a team covering a spread---

Bad to Average teams-- New Orleans, SanDiego, Minny, Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago, just cannot cover spreads------CINCY

I really think all the above coaches are just not smart enought to know how to coach their teams to win by margins of -4 to -7 and higher. It is shown over and over-----

The league is composed of dumb ass coaches, who IMO when 2 teams play you have to take the Romeo Crennel vs the Dick Jauron because DICK cannot and will not and cannot outcoach a team by 5 points, he cannot do it, he is jsut not smart enough and will not do it-- NEVER NEVER--

I am really thinking that if you break down teams by the best COACHES you will notice that the best COACHES have covered the most games and the worst Coaches have certainly covered the least amount of games.
 
I am telling everyone that if you follow these rules you will be having a weekly meeting with your bookie to collect off him over and over---

Take the top 4 teams and bet on them when they are DOGS and low favorites-----

Other games involving avg to weaker teams, look to take the DOGS-- ie if one team is not in the top 4 teams, take the DOG--

Ie today take Cleveland over Buffalo-- last week take 9'ers over ZONA--

You will win most of your bets as it is really that simple--

Take all DOGS and bet against the stupidity of NFL coaches and players and they hype that makes it seem like one team is better than the other--

Bet on the top teams with good Defenses as DOGS and low spreads
 
Andy Reid is not capable of covering a spread over 7,
Click to expand...

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 09/07/08</TD><TD class=datacell>St. Louis </TD><TD class=datacell>W 38-3 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 1</TD><TD class=datacell>W -9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 43.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 11/02/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Seattle </TD><TD class=datacell>W 26-7 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 9</TD><TD class=datacell>W -7</TD><TD class=datacell>U 43.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

6-4 ats overall this year. Thats 60 percent.
 
because DICK cannot and will not and cannot outcoach a team by 5 points, he cannot do it, he is jsut not smart enough and will not do it-- NEVER NEVER
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<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 09/07/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Seattle </TD><TD class=datacell>W 34-10 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 1</TD><TD class=datacell>W -1</TD><TD class=datacell>O 37.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 09/28/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ St. Louis </TD><TD class=datacell>W 31-14 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 4</TD><TD class=datacell>W -9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 43.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 10/19/08</TD><TD class=datacell>San Diego </TD><TD class=datacell>W 23-14 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 7</TD><TD class=datacell>W -1</TD><TD class=datacell>U 44.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
playing for the fg was dumb. neither team knows how to win. lead change after lead change in 4th. whoever, had ball last was gonna win.
 
The Eagles also covered 7 against the Falcons earlier this year if I'm not mistaken.

I do actually think there's a bit of a point in here, perhaps because some of it goes back to what I was saying yesterday about Juron.

Dick Juron has a history of working his players really hard in practice--really grinding on them like Schottenheimer did. This gets them to be a pretty well oiled machine, but it also runs them down as the season goes on. Like last year you saw, when they had all those injuries, they were done because they were too thin to carry such a load all week.

That, in combination with his coaching style, which isn't to run it up, creates situations where it's going to be hard for Buffalo to cover big numbers. Now, it doesn't mean they won't. Hell, everybody has really good days, or their opponent has really bad ones, where they win by 20. But Juron's team is not built to keep his foot on the gas.

The other side of that is someone like Dungy whose team is actually built only to keep its foot on the gas, but he himself doesn't like to run it up, so the Colts historically will jump out to leads, but always let you back into the game because they aren't built to hold a lead and Dungy won't keep his foot on the pedal.

The problem I find is that there are too few teams that are predictable like this. I, personally, don't think Gruden is predcitable if only because I don't think he's got the talent right now to be so. If he had a solid QB and running game, I would say, yes, he's a guy that will put you away. Not so much to be a d*ck, but just to be done with the game and not have to worry about it. But from the little I've seen of TB, they don't seem consistent enough to play on that theory.

Belicheat we all know will cover for ya, at least early on, but this year that loss of Brady has thrown a wrench into the plans.

The only thing I can tell you about Fat Andy is always be careful laying big numbers with AFC teams on the other side of the ball. It's a very general rule, but if you just know that and nothing else about him, you'll be OK. If you want one more thing, always look at the Birds the week after their bye.
 
IN general in the NFL----

People focus on teams so much and think they are awesome after 6 to 7 weeks---

A few weeks back Washington, Buffalo were thought to be amazing- Philly was thoguht to be elite also---

If you think with the buy and sell strategy here is what is happening---

Washington and Buffalo, Pitts, Philly, Jags are being SOLD- they are declining and getting worse weekly----

BUY-Giants, Tenny, TBay, Dallas, Pats, Jets, Denver,

Unknown- Atlanta, packers, Saints, Chargers----

People are going to sell of the teams above but some will bounce back with a good game and save the season, some will quit all together--

Quite simply you cannot ask a bad team to cover for you cant do it, no way-
 
why would you want to buy the nyg, ten, tbay, dallas, pats, jets and denver now? wouldnt you expect the same things that happened to wash, buff and philly to happen to them?

sell high, buy low. gl.
 
Joe Public said:
I like the buy/sell theory, I want our resident buyer/seller SportsNut to comment.
Click to expand...

In reality that what Betting is----
yesterday's game most were selling off cleveland as quitters and partly due to their last 2 games where they self destructed----

Buffalo was also cold and played worse yesterday

Buffalo is now road chalk -3 at KC---

It may be possible that Buffalo does not evenshow up on the road in this game, why would they, they are done-- laying -3 with that offense?
defense is overrated bigtime also-

Eagles or the Steelers may rebound this week--

Take it with a grain of salt and realize that the bettors will be looking to fade Buffalo, Washington, Philly, Pitts as those teams have looked weak of late-----

SOme will bounce back and have a good week, some will struggle more, all those teams have bad struggling QB's---

Edwards, Campbell, Mcnabb, BIG BEN aer all struggling badly, whichever can come up with a good game their team will win-- the rest will struggle and teams will lose---

Also the coaching angle is true-- NOt sure how Jauron will be able to win anywhere on the road at -3 if he could not win at home vs a rookie QB in a must win game??

Jauron has no asnwers he is retarded and knows nothing about football, which explaisn why he is a head coach in teh NFL-- If he had a clue about football, he wold have tried to move the ball yesterday instead of relying on a 45 yard field goal? Does tihs guy have any brains at all?
 
Oh, and let's be honest, the Browns got a great deal of luck last night. Granted, they made some of it, but what, four turnovers and a missed FG at the whistle? Not exactly a statement win.

But you've gotta take 'em where you can get 'em. And I think that win was good for Brady's development. I also thought the play-calling on that final drive once they crossed mid-field was horrible.

Three straight passes, when you already thought you were in FG range? Way to take almost no seconds off the clock.

Not that the Walrus has ever been the best game manager.
 
:shake:
Joe Public said:
I like the buy/sell theory, I want our resident buyer/seller SportsNut to comment.
Click to expand...


Some interesting stuff in here . The bottomline about last nite's game is it came down to a bunch of small things IMO .

1- I expected a much different game but almost from the 1st play I thought shit this isnt going down as expected tonight. Rogers gets his hand on the 1st pass and deflected for an easy INT . I expected Buffalo to come out amped up and move the ball on offense . Which in a way would cause CLE not quit but lose any sort of motivation they may have had coming in . Like I said after 2 tough collapses and a defense struggling to stop anyone thought they could take away CLE's heart early . Especially being on the road in the not to favorable weather . The longer CLE hangs around the better their effort will be down the stretch.
2- Trent Edwards was terrible but for so many reasons already mentioned we need to not discuss further . The scary part IMO was the good protection he had and the fact I believe after the 1st play of the game he NEVER targeted Lee Evans again . How is basically THEE playmaker in the passing game . So really shocked at how poorly he was . Also though I think the really key moments came right before half when BUF outplayed the whole 1st H could have rallied back from 13-0 to go up 14-13 . Also they started with some solid defense to start the 2nd H and held CLE to a punt . They get the ball and start to drive and then inside the opponent 30 they fumble . WHich could have been a tie game or lead . Instead they played up hill all night . The chances were there for BUFF to take the game away from CLE (which BUF certainly helped them to an early lead) but they never ever made a play to just get CLE backpeddling . They stop the clock above the 2 minute warning and then score before the 2 minute warning . They should have found a way to waste some more time and keep the ball out of CLE hands and have them lose as much TOs as possible . Plus they scored and the kick the ball out of bounds ......ugly in every shape ....
3- Hardly mentioned but a banged up Bills defense lose CB Jabari Green in the 2nd Q and Donte Whitner at Half. Tough to overcome when your pass rush has been struggling .
4- Offensive playcalling - On one hand I understand Jauron just settling to run the ball when he got near the opponent 35 because of the 3 1st Half turnovers . The problem is as Brewer mentioned its not like they were on the 20 yd line they were basically where Lindell is probably 70-75 % accurate . So he played not to lose and lost because he feared an INT . Also poor use of TimeOuts and lack of Edwards a Stanford guy to make football decisions w/o help . Also think red zone playcalling stunk before halftime when they settled for 3 .

As far as buy and selling teams its not that cut and dry IMO. If you are looking for conistency it starts with defense and follwoed by a running game IMO . Really the 2 consistent teams week in and week out have been Tenny and NYG .

Tenny wins every week and because they never really play any terrible teams always seem to be in a poistion where they just need to win to cover the spread . So they havent really lost value . Most teams are so up and down from week to week or battling injuries that they struggle to overcome its tough to predict who is a buy or sell clearly . Really the injury list and lack of depth has knocked more then a few teams for a loop.

As far as Buffalo and KC again we have to remember that despite KC playing so well they DONT know how to win . They lost 3 straight games real late and couldnt get it done vs NO last week . KC defense still very thin . While KC has improved its still really a team that has feed of the Buffalo's off the league. Which is just continually hand your opponent chances to beat you. BUF had chances to beat both NYJ and CLE but didny make big plays .

I would keep an eye on the injured defenses for both teams .

As for the rest injuries make a HUGE part of why I would buy and sell from what was listed . I wouldnt get to high on NYJ , Denver or TB. While NE needs to get healthier as does PITT IMO . Wash is overrated if they play and solid defense and are lined where they basically need to win to cover . Clearly Dallas has health issues as well. Dont see why Philly would bounce back since they havent really played an impressive game all season .

Still the NFL is just filled with medicore teams IMO which is what makes this season easy times and hard at others . Teams are never as bad as they look and really never close to as good as they might have looked .

I think CIncy is a team who looks better then they are playing and Det is probably alot better then they have looked( and I mean in the recent games ). TB defense is very good at home but think they are just an entirely different team on the road. Denver just hanging around in games and doing enough to pull out wins . Oaklands offense is probably worse then even the numbers suggest . Houston defense falling apart and Indys offense really starting to get it together IMO. SF IMO is on the rise . bears and Jax do have issues and are basically spiraling . Minny has hope IMO as does GB . NO might be pretender thanks to the red zone offense and injuries on defense .

 
Hey sammy, the nfl coaches don't need to cover the spread to get the W. All they need to do is win the game by 1 point. But yeah, I also thought Jauron was a little conservative once he got in "long" fg range. Shoulda made that a little closer. Maybe he was afraid Edwards would throw another pick. And say he did throw another pick, you'd probably have a thread saying the opposite on how he was in fg range and shoulda played more conservative for the win.
 
College coaches try to cover spreads not pro coaches.

I see so many college coaches try to cover its unreal.

The most notorious is Roy Williams for UNC :shake:
 
I like Dick Jauron, I think he is very good coach. I dont think any decision he made mon. night cost his team the game. Its damn hard to win or cover a number as a fav or a dog in this league when you are -4 TOs for the game. The fumble in the 2nd half was bigger than the 3 picks in the first. Buff was moving the ball with relative ease, they had the clev D on its heals scrambling and Jackson put the ball on the ground. I think the Browns only had 9 pts. off TOs which is incredible for a 4 TO margin. The bad thing about the Jackson fumble was at the least it was a 6 point swing or it could have been a 10 point swing with a buffalo TD.

Turnovers, return yardage, and key penalties are the hardest elements to cap but they tend to have the biggest impact on success or failure ATS.
 
I have nothing against Jauron as a person or a coach but in his 9 (or something) seasons as an NFL head coach he has only had one winning season.

If you look deep at the numbers his overall record is absolutely atrocious.

No bias here - just fact.
 
Please add Sean Payton as a retard. Never liked his style. He would be a great coach at Nevada because all he wants to do is Pass. In the NFL you must have balance or you will be looking for a job. As for the Saints if they win this week you may have to keep an eye on them.They might just make a run. But it goes back to coaching that has me 2nd guessing them along with injuries. Also some suspensions may be coming up and could fuck a run up.I feel like the NFL this year is the publics year. You can check out sportsinsights and just look at there systems fading the pub.It is not good the last I checked. The year of the Fave.
 
nawlins51 said:
Please add Sean Payton as a retard. Never liked his style. He would be a great coach at Nevada because all he wants to do is Pass. In the NFL you must have balance or you will be looking for a job. As for the Saints if they win this week you may have to keep an eye on them.They might just make a run. But it goes back to coaching that has me 2nd guessing them along with injuries. Also some suspensions may be coming up and could fuck a run up.I feel like the NFL this year is the publics year. You can check out sportsinsights and just look at there systems fading the pub.It is not good the last I checked. The year of the Fave.
Click to expand...

Nawlins you bring some interesting points----

First I would agree with what you said about year of the Favorite----

However double digit favorites are not covering this year-------

The favorites are covering this year due to the fact that there is no PARITY in this league--

A team like BALTY is not great, but is consistent, they lose to good teams but beat any weaker or avg teams easily-- This is because there is no parity--

I cant say that on any weekend any team can beat any team. The major upsets are not happening and most good teams take care of business.

What we are left with in this league is 2 to 4 very good teams and a bunch of avg teams-- Pitts, Philly, colts, Pats, Jets, Chargers, Denver- Packers, Viking, Bucs---

THen we have the weaker teams which suck, Detroit, Cincy, raiders--

Usually weak teams with low lines never cover and cover when they get more than 10 points----

WIth sean payton he is a coach that if things go wrong right away and the D gets scored on, he panicks, he will go deep, wont run the ball-

He is not a good coach, he can beat the teams that cannot stop the pass-

ZOna and Saints IMO are identical offenses--
A team that can pressure Brees and Warner with the front 4 will beat them every time---
Teams that cannot and must blitz will lose to them--

Payton panicks, doesent know how to run the clock out- really is not a great game manager--

Saints have no run game-- they have Mcallister who is way too slow, Bush is way too small, Pierre Thomas is the best, he is fast and big enough--
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Nawlins you bring some interesting points----

First I would agree with what you said about year of the Favorite----

However double digit favorites are not covering this year-------

The favorites are covering this year due to the fact that there is no PARITY in this league--

A team like BALTY is not great, but is consistent, they lose to good teams but beat any weaker or avg teams easily-- This is because there is no parity--

I cant say that on any weekend any team can beat any team. The major upsets are not happening and most good teams take care of business.

What we are left with in this league is 2 to 4 very good teams and a bunch of avg teams-- Pitts, Philly, colts, Pats, Jets, Chargers, Denver- Packers, Viking, Bucs---

THen we have the weaker teams which suck, Detroit, Cincy, raiders--

Usually weak teams with low lines never cover and cover when they get more than 10 points----

WIth sean payton he is a coach that if things go wrong right away and the D gets scored on, he panicks, he will go deep, wont run the ball-

He is not a good coach, he can beat the teams that cannot stop the pass-

ZOna and Saints IMO are identical offenses--
A team that can pressure Brees and Warner with the front 4 will beat them every time---
Teams that cannot and must blitz will lose to them--

Payton panicks, doesent know how to run the clock out- really is not a great game manager--

Saints have no run game-- they have Mcallister who is way too slow, Bush is way too small, Pierre Thomas is the best, he is fast and big enough--
Click to expand...


Well you nailed the Saints. They are exactly as you state and Payton does Panic. He has a lot to learn as a head coach. Parcells even said Sean Payton gets a virus at times because all he wants to do is pass. Deuce is slow and I believe not 100%.He will never be the old Deuce and think he is gone after the season.Bush needs to watch Westbrook. Thats how you play as a elusive small RB. Even though Reid has lost his fucking mind and seems he forgot about Westbrook or Mcnabb is really stupid or both. Anyway I did hear that Brandon Jacobs may look at the Saints this offseason and a guy I work with is close with his family and said he would like to come home.Take that how you want because like me I have to see it to believe it. Man Jacobs would do good down here and would love to have him. All the Saints need is a few playmakers on defense if they could add Jacobs and I really think nobody would stop them.But that is like asking for all the shit in the Sears Christmas Wishbook to be delivered by Santa Claus.
 
Saints with a new secondary and Jacobs would be dangerous---

They need to get rid of that kevin Keshvemeahara guy, he is horrible, he cant cover, also Jason David needs to go as well as Randall Yag--

They need 2 new starting corners, probably should have picked up deangelo hall- and they need a new safety to replace Keshvemagerhamara--

Then they will be for real--- at least 2 new secondary players are needed

ALso a good field goal kicker is needed, what team do u know that goes for it on the 25 yard line instead of kicking the sure 3??

Saints do, a better left guard also would help, ABraham was owing the left guard in that falcons game,
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Saints with a new secondary and Jacobs would be dangerous---

They need to get rid of that kevin Keshvemeahara guy, he is horrible, he cant cover, also Jason David needs to go as well as Randall Yag--

They need 2 new starting corners, probably should have picked up deangelo hall- and they need a new safety to replace Keshvemagerhamara--

Then they will be for real--- at least 2 new secondary players are needed

ALso a good field goal kicker is needed, what team do u know that goes for it on the 25 yard line instead of kicking the sure 3??

Saints do, a better left guard also would help, ABraham was owing the left guard in that falcons game,
Click to expand...


Yep Kevin K. has to go. I think Porter did well this season until he broke his wrist and was placed on IR. I don't know how McKenzie will come back with 2 major knee injuries at 100% so I will say yes at least 1 CB is needed.I agree they should have went after Hall. Hell he wanted to come here.Saints must have a big free agency period this offseason because the draft will be small due to trades and losses of draft picks. Unreal Sammy.
 
The Saints actually IMO are possibly one of the best teams, because they actually win games with this secondary---

Roman harper and Kevin K are just brutal..

Mike Mckenzie was playing scared vs Roddy white and was not the Mike Mckenzie of 2 years ago which was pretty good. jason David is a joke, althoughhe is playing better of late--

Porter is the only one that can play and do anything- It is hard to find good corners in the draft, not picking up Hall was a bad move- They will have to get a free agent at corner I believe--

But a good safety combo can protect your corners, i think teh Saints safeties are terrible vs deep pass, and coupled in with corners being avg to below average--

Porter was going to be good, at least he was near the ball and made some blockdowns-

WHen is the last time that KEVIN K, Mckenzie or Yag or David made a game changing INT where they read the play and jumped a route-
 
ALert-- The worst player to ever play in the NFL is on saints safety Kevin KESMAHAR, tihs guy is horrible, he is out of control, gets burned over and over, Bengals fans remember how bad this guy is--

They need to get rid of that kevin Keshvemeahara guy, he is horrible, he cant cover,

Roman harper and Kevin K are just brutal..

:36_11_6:
 
Kevin Robert Kaesviharn (born August 29, 1976 in Paramount, California) is a Thai American football safety with the National Football League's New Orleans Saints. Kevin is of Thai descent, his father having been born in Thailand. At 6' 1" and 196 pounds, he can play both free safety and strong safety, as well as cornerback. His fan-given nicknames are "Neo" and "Keanu" for his resemblance to actor Keanu Reeves, though he has been referred to as "Quesadilla" and the shortened "Kase" by many of his fellow players and in the media. He was working as an Algebra teacher after graduation when he decided to try his hand at a professional football career. His first taste of the NFL was spent in training camp with the Green Bay Packers in 2001 after playing for the San Francisco Demons in the inaugural season of the now defunct XFL. He was released by Green Bay just prior to the season opener, but was signed to the Cincinnati Bengals' squad four weeks later. During his stretch with the Bengals, Kaesviharn played in 87 games and logged 363 tackles (286 solo), six sacks, 15 interceptions, 28 passes defended and four fumble recoveries, one of which resulted in a touchdown when he returned the ball three yards on a Lee Suggs fumble in the second quarter vs. the Cleveland Browns on October 17, 2004. On March 13, 2007, after 5 full seasons with the Bengals, Kaesviharn signed a four year contract with the New Orleans Saints.
 
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