ClubDirt Weekly Partial Newsleter Week 15

[ClubDirt]

sorry to all CTG readers of ClubDirtSports (both of you), for not bringing this over earlier.

Cincy -5- @ Philly - not going anywhere near this one. i'm always weary of the 5- point road favorite and while i like cincy as a team, i don't like them as a favorite of more than 3. if i was looking at this one, i'd note that the bengals need to keep winning and this is the easiest game left on the schedule. they really needed that one last week to get the last two wins going into pit and Blt. they didn't get it and it was theirs for the taking so they should be fired up for this one. philly is coming off the opposite of what cincy did by winning a game they had no business winning. we aren't big fans of TB so that win isn't very impressive and it's hard to figure how much philly has left in the tank. i'm guessing philly has one or two blowouts left in them as they get ready for the offseason. hard to make a case for philly in this one but i wouldn't play cincy as 5- point road favorites. i just wouldn't play this one at all.

GB -3 @ Chc - huge game for the nfc north here. GB locks up the division with a win here. i'm a little surprised to see them as 3 point favorites until i look at chicago's last several games and see they appear to be really struggling. but on a closer look, it's not so bad. at least at home. they only have two losses at home. one was a campbell game and both were to very good defenses. nothing wrong with that. GB does not have a very good defense at all so if great defenses are their weakness, this one shouldn't be a problem. in other words, while chicago has been losing lately, i'm going to assume they are still solid at home in which case they are a bargain here.

on the other side, GB does have that great win @ houston, but outside of that, they haven't been great on the road, not good enough to deserve a 3 point spread here. this is a big game twice every year. you're not going to come up with a magic bullet to figure out some great angle. you have a big december division game so i think the best thing to do is see where the edges appear to be. for chicago- at home, play well at home, better rushing team,. better defense, getting 3 points and already lost to GB once. for GB- better coaching, better offense. possible play on chicago.

 

[ClubDirt]

NYG @ Atl -1 before last week when we thought the giants had a great matchup against the saints, we said the giants needed that one because they would be underdogs in 2 of their last 3 games. we're right so far although just barely here. we know the giants are an erratic team. about the only time you can trust them was last week in a must win game (given the difficulty of their schedule the rest of the way) and coming off a bad loss. the giants will show up in those games more often than not.

of course, this is a different situation. now they are coming off an easy win and playing in a tough venue against a team that plays good defense at home. because of that, i don't like this one for the giants. we've been betting against Atl all season because we've thought they were overrated but this doesn't look like a great matchup for the giants./ look at the Atl defense at home vs./ the giants offense on the road. for some reason, Eli and that offense just plays like garbage for long periods of time. the giants- only 16 against a shitty pass defense in washington, 13 against a good but not top cincy defense, 17 against a shitty philly defense. there are some good perfoances in there but the bad ones outnumber the good ones and as overrated as Atl may be, they are normally very tough at home.

Atl's problem has been twofold. one, they are good but not as good as their record and some of the lines put out for them. and two, they've had the division locked up for a while. it's hard for nfl teams to bring the intensity each week when there isn't a division title or playoff spot to fight for. we definitely saw that last week.

so, on the giants side, they are motivated as they need to keep winning to fight off dallas and washington and they are a very good team when they play well. on the falcons side, they are tough at home but the motivation is in question, esepcially after being so flat last week.

if you figure possible home field advantage is enough to get Atl's attention at this point, and it should be since this team isn't winning garbage on the road in the playoffs, then the edge ahs to be with the falcons in this one based on home/away performances of these two teams.

the Atl coaches typically do at least one thing a week that makes you scratch your head. i've pointed out their terrible gameplan for two weeks now. that reminds me. in last week's newsletter we sided with carolina because we said Atl would need to commit to the run to win that game- a simple and obvious conlusion for sure, but one we didn't know the Atl coaches would understand after abandonign the run with the elad agauinst the saints the week earlier letting them back in the game. since running the ball against a weak carolina run defense was so obviously the right gameplan last week, what did Atl do? they had 2 rushes for turner at the half. two. coaches should be fired for less stupidity. and Atl was never in that game.

has Atl finally learned their lesson? what will it take? the giants aren't all that great in stopping the run either. this is one of the main reasons we don't like this Atl team this season. and that may be enough to keep us off them here. until they can put a professional gameplan together, it's hard to take them.

on the other hand, as bad as the coaching is in some respects, it's good in others. again Atl is tough at home and they are tough after a loss. and somone might suggest to the players that this is the type of playoff level game they need to win if they want any chance of going anywhere this season.

so giving the atl coaches some credit, the last time Atl lost two in a row was weeks 7 & 8 in the 2009 season. i usually ignore that kind of statistically insignificant trend but it's hard to ignore that one.

remotely possible play on Atl

 

[ClubDirt]

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[TD="class: forumpost-post"]Tb @ NO -3- weekly reasders know by now we think TB sucks. but we also think, wait, we know, that the saints have a horrible defense and a major void on the sidelines that vitt hasn't come close to filling. so what do we do with this one. the line, at 3-, certainly says No covers this one. but then again there is a little sense remaining with gamblers that the saints aren't that bad because they have brees and a nice looking offense (at times). we disagree. they are that bad. there is also the sense that TB sucks despite their surprising record because they are the bucs and freeman can be so bad at times. we agree.

can't take the saints as 3- point favorites coming off two terrible games. can't take the saints as 3- point favorites with a defense that bad. can we take TB? earlier in the season, we only took them as big dogs. but that situation didn't arise much after the giants game and then that ridiculous spread in the dallas game.

these teams are probably close to equal here. TB is a more complete team but you can't discount brees or the ome field advantage. i can see taking the points and hoping to see TB pounds NO on the ground, where they are very vulnerable. TB does have the ability to shut down NO's fledgling running game which puts brees into very difficult situations. in last week's blowout by the giants, ingram ran only 13 times, brees had 2 int's to one TD pass. in the horrible game the week before against Atl the leading rusher was Thomas with 14 carries. Brees had 5 int's. the leading rusher had 8 carries in the blowout to denver. in contrast, it was by committee, but the saints ran the ball 28 times against oakland and crushed them. 24 times against philly.

so it seems simple. the saints have to take some pressure off brees by running the ball around 25 times a game. if they do, the saints should win. if they don't, brees could still pull it off but it would take the perfect kind of game he just isn't having without payton on the sidelines.

it won't be easy against tampa who does lead the league in rushing defense.

my original thought was no play because that extra half point is scaring me somewhat but looking into the matchup, there does appear to be some value on TB.
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[ClubDirt]

Minn @ Stl -1 what can we say about Stl that we haven't already said. they are money almost every week. and they came through again last week against an undisciplined and flawed buffalo team. and they are being rewarded here as one point favorites over a team that beat up on a clea playoff team last week.

let's look at Minn first. obviously, the biggest plus for them is AP. i saw a stat that he's averaging about 6 yards per carry this season. that's ridiculous for the nfl. so if your team is going to have trouble stopping the run, you probably don't want to bet them agaisnt minn.

but if that is going to be minn's biggest strength indicating victory here, i'm not sold on that. Stl has probably played the toughest schedule when it comes to running teams. SF is ranked #2 and couldn't beat Stl in either game. Wash is #1 and Stl beat them at home. Seattle is #4 and Stl beat them at home the one time they've played each other.

so, i think it's pretty clear that Stl can handle a team that can run the ball. and if you check those box scores, those teams didn't pull an Atl; they committed to the run. Stl just handled it. so how else is Minn going to win this one? they have one road win all season.

i don't like that Stl is on a 3 game winning streak coming off 4 losses and a tie. you know it's going to end soon. but who knows when,. they are still technically in the playoff picture and their last two are on the road so this is a game they need to win to stay relevant. there could be a letdown but they do have the playoff motivation and appear to be the better team at home so Stl is a possible play.

 

[ClubDirt]

glad i didn't mess with that garbage last night. that was playing like a philly cover and possible SU win and an under until the bottom fell out.

Washington -1 @ Clev - two teams playing well but i'm not going to look into the matchup at all. i'm just interested in the line. in Clev games, more than any other team this season, the line has told the story. Clev has traditionally been a team written off by most bettors and this season was no different. so we were surprised to see them as basicallt even with cincy in week 6, basically even with SD (still a public favorite at the time) in week 8, basically even with pitt 3 weeks ago, basically even @ Oak but still, of symbolic importance, a road favorite there, and then a huge (by Clev standfards) favorite last week. and whwta do all of those games have in common? Clev won them all.

so they are at home coming off a 3 game win streak and playing a team that is playing well but may not be any better than cleveland, particularly on defense and vegas makes Wash the favorite. you may read this differently, but this reads like a Wash win to me.

that, of course, is not enough for a play but the line leads me to look at wash and i'll read what i can to fill in the rest to see if it's a play. keep in mind washington will likely be favored to win out which, i'm guessing, will put them in a tie with the giants for the division. not sure how the tiebreaker works right now.


obviously, RG3 is out here but the line has moved to 3- which peaks my interest in washington.

 

[ClubDirt]

Jax @ Mia -8 huge spread for miami. i probably would have guessed 7- so it's really not much different. it looks like too much to give here. as bad as Jax is, they have still played pretty well on the road. despite playing a very tough road schedule, they only have one double digit road loss which is what you're' basically predicting here if you bet miami. you always have to wonder when jax will start its offseason and it's possible that it started two weeks ago in that ugly game against the jets. for that reason alone, you may wan tto avoid jacksonville.

as for miami, they've bounced back pretty well from that disaster against tennessee. yes, they came fairly close @ buffalo and then had a great win against seattle and kept the next two close against possibly yhr two best teams in the league (if you didn't see it, the SF game was basically a 7 point loss and miami was close the whole way until a late garbage front door TD). so, miami is clearly playing well enough to win by 14. it doesn't take that much. for motivation, miami could easily finish 8-8 because they'll be favored in the next two games and NE could be a situation where the last game means nothing. that's probably sufficient motivation to win by 14 here.

as much as i'd hate to give 8 point with a 5-8 team that isn't built to blow teams out, Jax just isn't bringing much to the table these days and miami is playing well and has a very nice step (way) down in competition as they realistically try to get to .500.

possible play on Miami.

i was lost on that jets/jaguars game last week. i couldn't see betting the jets as a road favorite but would almost never play jax at under 3. getty explained it and put us on the jets (although ClubDirtSports took all the credit for its customers, they don't call it GettySports.com afterall) getty, help us out with this one. are the jaguars going to be lifeless for the third week in a row?.

 

[ClubDirt]

Den @ Blt +3 you don't even need to read the newsletter to know what we are doing here. bu to add a few words, yes, we didn't like Blt going into the season and figured they'd start their decline due to age and other issues. we were somewhat right but they are still 9-4 with some pretty good wins so on paper, looking at the entire season, you could argue we weren't right at all (shrimp get ready for 7-9 and 3rd or 4th place next season though

). and we liked Denver coming into the season and figured they'd run away with a weak division despite all of the people calling manning finished when he didn't just pick up where he left off after missing an entire season. that prediction looks solid.

anyway, despite those preexisting opinions, this looks like an overreaction. i don't like denver for a couple of reasons. i just don't see them running the table and this looks like a good spot for a step back down to earth. if you look at the teams denver has beaten on their run, it's not impressive at all. i'm looking at one good win @ cincy (we lost on that one). everything else has been shitty defenses, shitty coaches and the shitty AFC west.

this one reminds me of denver @ atlanta. looking at the teams now, denver clearly had to ability to make a good game of it and win. but Atl at home is a tough environment and the crowd was going crazy and Atl was fired up. that should be what denver faces in this one. after the last 3 games, Blt really needs a strong performance, particularly against a team they may see in the playoffs. if they lose this one, how will they have any confidence going forward. will they even win their division. they have three tough games to end the season. they lose this one and they have a good shot at second place and opening the playoffs at den, hou or NE which they don't want to do. so, this is about as close to a must win game as they've had all season. and they are getting a little healthier which should help.

denver is kind of like atlanta from a motivational standpoint. like Atl, they've had the division locked up for a while now. it's hard to bring it every week when you don't have the diviioon title or a playoff spot in the balance. sure, they want home field advantage but i doubt that's going to equate to the same kind of motivation Blt will have at home in this one. +3 looks like a bargain here. Blt can't handle this game and gives up 30+ points again, then the good news is we were probably right about Blt in our preseason prediction but the basd news will be that it'll likely cost us here because we'll likely be playing Blt at 3.

i don't need to ask about shrimpton, i know where he is on this one. injury updates would be good though.

 

[hugh613]

 

[ClubDirt]

that should say "if Blt can't handle this game..."


Indy @ Hou -9- you usually don't see too many surprising large spreads at this point in the season. everyone pretty much knows what the teams are capable of. not that it makes betting any easier because what they are capable of and what they do are often two different things. but this spread is high. i guess the idea is that houston needs to make a statement here. one, they play indy in 2 of the next 3 games and just need to beat them once to lock up the division. no one on houston is probably worried about it but they probably feel like this is a good chance to show indy who's the boss in the AFC south. and two, houston needs a good showing because they haven't had one in a while and need to get ready for the playoffs. they aren't playing like a team that is going to do much in the playoffs, although we still think they will.

last week was brutal, they did beat tenn pretty easily but that doesn't mean much, they struggled against Jax and they struggled against detroit. their last good win was against chicago and that wasn't too impressive since campbell was starting and couldn't do anything against anyone.

so, houston does need to come out strong and this looks like a good place to do it. Indy is technically a playoff team but they really aren't that good so it's a good setup. it reminds me of the Indy/NE game where NE was a 9- point favorite and we took it expecting NE to come out strong after 3 out of 4 subpar performances.

so are we taking Houston? not sure about that. it could be that houston has problems right now. they are banged up on defense and indy will be as fired up as they've been all season. i'm saying i understand why the line is this high but i'm not sure i've seen houston do anything in the second half of the season which makes me feel comfortable giving all of those points. would any result surprise you here? not me so i doubt i'd lay those point. i'd consider a play on indy but i don't like them so i'll probably just lay off. this one.


when i checked earlier, houston had crossed 10. definitely can't play houston. will look at the colts.

 

[ClubDirt]

Car @ Sd -3 i think my quote in last week's SD/Pitt matchup was something like, if i practice what i preach, i would take the chargers in that one. i didn't and i didn't. and it turned out to be the easiest game of the week. badlandssports.com had it and usually good things happen when we agree but i couldn't bring myself to take the chargers. i thought they might quit after those ridiculous games against Blt and cincy. i guess not.

interesting line here. Sd hasn't had a strong line on their behalf since they beat up on KC in week 9. since then, it's been 3 point dogs to tampa and home dogs against cincy and other lines that gave SD no credit. last week was the same and for good reason. but they go from 9- point dogs to a flawed steelers team to 3 point favorites against a team that is coming off a nice win and has played most teams very tough. on the road, they have a nice win at wash and some good covers @ Atl and @ chicago. based on that, i'm very surpruised to see Sd as a 3 point favorite. before last week, this team's last good win was, well, last season.

i really don't like either of these teams. they both suck, neither plays good defense, neither is coached well. but if you look at hoe the teams have played out the season, you have to look at Car here. i just don't understand why SD is a 3 point favorite. it's odd because of SD's performance in practically every game and with the fact that Car has a couple of decent wins but has only been blown out twice and those were against two teams much better than the chargers. are people assuming the chargers are decent now because of that one win?

 

[ClubDirt]

going to look at some more lines to take my mind off of this garbage.

i started one but don't have the energy for it. i'll finish looking at the lines and give my first impression

Sea -5- @ Buff buffalo is an unpredictable team and i still don't trust seattle on the road. is seattle going to win two in a row on the road? when was the last time they did that. maybe someone can check. i love the seattle team now that wilson is getting more experience but i don't trust seattle as a fairly big road favorite in this one. then again, buffalo looks like a good candidate to quit. possible play on bufflo but not likely at this point.

Det -6 @ AZ - kind of like the seattle game, while detroit is nothing like seattle as a team, i don't trust detroit as a 6 point road favorite against anyone. but then again, AZ is the worst and may have quit. but now that i think about it, this does fit perfectly into one of my favored situations where a team looks like complete garbage one week and everyone gives up on them and so you take them the next week with the inflated line and extra value. AZ certainly qualifies as i can't remember the klast time a team looked that bad. and detroit is a good opponent for this situation as they aren't good but people still want to think they are. possible play on AZ here.

Pitt -1 @ Dallas- interesting line. two overrated teams but i'm going to assume pitt needed a game to get ben back into the mix and they'll be better here. i don't trust romo against a strong defense like pitt in a must win game now that they are in 3rd place after last night. sure dallas needs it too but if motivation is equal, i like pitt better coming off a loss in ben's first game back with dallas coming off a big comeback win. possible play on Pitt here.

SF @ NE -5 i already said if NE beats up on houston on MNF, i'd take SF here at 3- or better. so that's what i'm going to do. SF is basically an auto play at more than 3 because their defense is so good. everyone values offense more than defense and i think that gets us an extra point or so. plus, everyone loves NE when that offense is rtolling. i'll take my chances with SF and hope this game is like the NE/Seattle game. NE is coming off two road divisionakl games and a big MNF game. SF has had it a little easier over the last 3 weeks. i'm sure harbaugh has been getting ready for this one.

 

[bones]

Thanks for the post

 

[ClubDirt]

as you can see, we lost our steam after looking at the carolina/SD match. i was doing these right when the schoolo shooting news came out. i was hoping to get into the games to take my mind off of it but that didn't work. the newssletter is a singular stream of consciousness effort based almost completely on first impressions of matchups and lines so i don't go back escept to fill in blanks with injuries and line movement. anyway, hopefully, it can still be useful.

good luck

"One day he trapped a large raven, whose wings he painted red, the breast green, and the tail blue. When a flock of ravens appeared over our hut, Lekh freed the painted bird. As soon as it joined the flock a desperate battle began. The changeling was attacked from all sides. Black, red, green, blue feathers began to drop at our feet. The ravens ran amuck in the skies, and suddenly the painted raven plummeted to the freshly-plowed soil. It was still alive, opening its beak and vainly trying to move its wings. Its eyes had been pecked out, and fresh blood streamed over its painted feathers. It made yet another attempt to flutter up from the sticky earth, but its strength was gone.”

 

[ClubDirt]

Hugh#, Bones Brigade :tiphat:

 

[ClubDirt]

as for tonight, i'm not sure i'm going to play it but there are a few interesting factors. tennessee is -1. this is a pretty big jump from NYJ being -2- at Jax last week depending on how much you want to give Tenn for their home field advantage. tenn has two home wins but this is probably their second easiest home game this season. they've had a pretty rough schedule at home.

outside of the fact that tenn isn't any good and have serious problems on defense, ehre's why we can't play tenn. the formula for beating tennessee is pretty simple and we think it plays right into the jets preferred gameplan. basically, as we discuss so often in the weekly newsletter, the jets need to commit to the run and they should win this. here's what teams have done with the gameplans against the titans recently

Indy 30 carries W
Houston 35 carries W
Jax 27 carries W
Chcago 36 carries W

Miami 15 carries L

seems like the gameplan against the titans is pretty obvious, even for the jets. will they do it?

the jets seem to be slow learners but may have finally figured out what everyone else already knew- yes sanchez showed a lot of promise as a rookie, but he sucks with this team in this offense. apparently tebow is worse because he never got a chance. we actually think the jets made up the severeity of tebow's alleged rib injury to get everyone off their back about putting tebow in, particularly with the jets coming to jacksonville. but the bottom line is, the jets have joiuned everyone else is realizign you aren't winning by putting the game in the hands of sanchez.

how do we know this? well, look at how the jets have changed their gameplans.

Stl 41 carries W
NE 29 carries L
AZ 43 carries W
Jax 42 carries W

these wins don't happen by accident. the announcers have no fuckin clue what's happening in these games but i think trying to understand how coaches approach games and plan for teams helps with trying to rpedict what will happen. the jets were never a thrwo every down team like NE or NO can be, for obvious reasons, but in many of their bad losses, they are running around 20-22 times a game. that's a lot of plays for sanchez and we see what usually happens.

so, the trends among teams with success against the titans say run on them,. the jets recent successful games have seen them go to the run a lot. most teams (without a brady, brees or rodgers) are in good shape if they run in the mid to high 20's. the jets need to be closer to 30 or more.

my guess is someone in the jets organization probably knows this. does this mean the jets are going to win on the road? of course not. but, the jets should be considered as a play because they are not the same team they were earlier in the season and this does look like a good matchup for what they are doing now.

it's tough to take the jets on the road in a game they must win to cover but if they stick to the plan, they will give you a better chance to cover than in earlier in the season.

i don't play props but prop players may have some ideas about what to do with this information.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Terrific thoughts on game tonight. I agree. Also lean game & jets tt over. Gl dirt

 

[ClubDirt]

thanks johnny. i was going to comment on what a great last drive the jets ran with greene finally getting some good yards against a tired titans defense but of course sparano has to keep calling long pass plays for sanchez. the jets are their own worst enemy. greene's at 5.2 yards/carry. let's throw sanchez some more and watch him telegraph passes for the safety.

loosk like there might be time for one more sanchez int.