ClubDirt Weekly Newsletter Week 14

[ClubDirt]

the newsletter isn't exactly weekly but we're doing our best. in my defense, the site was down one week for failure to pay the internet provider bill i suspect and then last week i was unable to stay on the site long enough to finish it due to the brutal bright red layout. i googled, "how do i make myself colorblind" so i could post here more often and came up empty. i persevered and bought some night vision goggles which i now keep by my computer to post the weekly newsletter here. everything is green, but it's an improvement and perhaps some foreshadowing for this week's analyses.

apologies if some of this makes no sense to you. this was originally prepared elsewhere so it may not makes sense due to the inclusion of covers related esoteric references, it may not make sense because they employ some pervasive autocorrect program that completely fucks up the threads where profantiy is in abundance, like most of mine, and it also may not make sense because it just doesn't make any fuckin sense. i also type poorly, fast and i never go back and edit it.

comments, criticisms, corrections, praise, football related insults and personal insults are always welcome

Elwood park Ravens @ Wash -1 the shrimp special. in the beginning of the season, yuo never would have expected wash to be the favorite ehre but it makes sense. the ravens are beaten up and their defense is nowhere near where it has been in the past. they are currently in the bottom third of the league in rushing defense and passing defense. on the one hand, you look at all of thei problems and you see that they still only have three losses despite a pretty tough schedule and they are 4-2 on the road. on the other hand, if you look at their road games, they really only have one good outing and i don't wean the win at pittsburgh. the line makes sense because it's hard to trust this team on the road against a team that is playing well, in the playoff race and has a very good running game.

in that sense washington matches uop much better here. they are very good at running the ball and stopping the run. when you can get the better rushing team, the better rushing defense and the home team at under 3, you have to take a look. on paper at least, for the ravens to win, they have to do it with flacco. that's not a good position to be in on the road.

situationally, it's not a greta one for washington. three straight divisional wins off a bye. you can easily see a letdown here. (note that if it doesn't come here due to the local rivalry, it will likely come next week @ cleveland before they finish up with two more divisional games).

the situation is better for baltimore coming off a bad loss against a depleted pittsburgh team who now has ben back so baltimore knows they need to get their garbage together to close out the division. baltimore does not have an easy game the rest of the way so they should be focused.

so, the matchup says to play washington but the situation favors baltimore. this one deserves further consideration as it should be a good one. let's see what shrimp says.

one last note, we're going to watch RG3 as much as we can for the same reason we watched bo jackson as often as we could. unless something changes drastically, that kid ain't going to be playing for very long, and it'll be a shame if he doesn't.

 

[ClubDirt]

KC @ Clev -6- sometimes we tend to write teams off too early. and so it was with KC. not because we lost with them. i hate seeing gamblers taker a bad loss on a team and say they'll never bet them again. it's just a terrible idea. each week is a new situation. however, there are teams that we just can't get any kind of read on, whether they are good or bad, and we typically dismiss them each week to focus on teams we like better. we did that with KC after winning with them against pitt in week 10.

and what an opportunity we missed last week. why in the world did that line move from carolina -3 to -5 or so? i know this is hindsight and we can discuss it because this isn't a game we played and won and mention after the fact, but carolina as a road favorite is a huge question mark to begin with. so, this crazy shooting happens and now carolina is worth being a bigger road favorite. how would anyone know if KC would play better or worse after something like that. each possibility is equally plausible. why would anyone take a bad team that plays no defense that is already a huge question mark as a road favorite and play them when more points are added on based on pure speculation?

sounds easy after the fact but the real point isn't that we should have taken KC, although we clearly should have and probably would have if we were paying attention, but that it's always a bad idea to write off a team just because they suck or you may have lost badly on them in the past, as hard as it is to do. vegas doesn't ever give out free money.

all that being said, looking at this game, i think you can basically disregard the suicide. KC was completely dysfunctional before the shooting and, if anything, last week's game tells us they aren't any worse because of it. but i doubt that win cured their football related problems either. on balance, i think we should just expect some revsersion for this team. we never understood how they could be that bad just about every week. i wouldn't be surprised if they end up with a winning record both SU and ATS from weeks 13-16. this is still a team with a huge advantage in that they can run the ball. of course, that's when they commit to it. they did against Blt and covered easily. they ran charles 27 times against the weak carolina defense and got another cover. cleveland is fair at stopping the run but KC should be able to have success there at home if they commit to it.

on the other side, we love cleveland and have played them often. but we like them better as underdogs because they fight hard each week and stay in games. we also followed hugh jorman sports who pointed out when vegas made them short favorites or short dogs in games that seemed to beg for money on the other side. we played them against cincy and followed along against SD but hugh jorman sports led us to the water we did not drink against pitt. all games where vegas set out a very short line on a traditionally low profile team and they came through.

but this isa new situation. someone can check, but i doubt they've been favorites of this size this season. we just don't like cleveland as a large favorite and don't like them coming off a bye and two SU wins. this looks like a 3 point win one way or another.

KC definitely gets a look this week. i doubt it goes to 7 and we almost never buy points but that extra half a point might offer a security for a KC play here.

 

[ClubDirt]

SD @ Pitt -9- while we didn't churn out a newsletter last week, we did churn out a

play on SD. i'm almost afraid to mention that as it has to affect our credibility but we're all about disclosure here. i'm not going to get into the reasons for that pick but every bet is a learning opportunity in the nfl so let's move forward. obviously, this is a huge line for a team that has a total of 2 wins by the double digits needed to cover here. also, obviously, this line is a reaction to two things: 1. ben is back and 2. rather than their usual second half surge, the chargers seem to have quit.

as to the first, if we practice what we preach then the overreaction to a starting qb coming back is a strong indication to play the other way. but when we say the qb position is overrated, we say that is the case for most teams. it's not for all teams and pitt is probably one of them because ben is a special player and the two stiffs behind him are just that bad, particularly in that offense. as to the other point, maybe they have quit. maybe they are finally ready to get rid of norv and this is the way to do it. it has to be. maybe it is too hard to come back from 4th and 29 in a game they really had to win.

i do think 9- is too many and i will consider a play on SD. pitt is coming off their biggest win of the season and plays @ dallas next week and then finishes off with two winnabel home games against divisional opponents. i doubt we'll get a letdown with pitt here as they need to win each game. i'm just not sure in ben's first game back against a uninspiring opponent that pitt will be motivated to cover the big number.

possibler play on SD here.

 

[ClubDirt]

Tenn @ Indy -5 two teams i don't like. tenn because they don't play any defense (except for that crazy score in miami a few weeks ago) and indy because they've become a public favorite that is also bad on defense but people bet because they love the QB.

since i'm not sold on either team, we always look at the favorite first and see if the line is justified. i think it's not. i just don't think you give up 33 here, 59 there, 35 to the fuckin jets, 41 o chicago and lay 5 points to teams that have shown they can put up points. people will probably disagree with me on that and figure this line should be closer to 7. and a line of 6 or 7 wouldn't have surprised me here. but only because we think indy is overrated.

basically, i don't think these teams are that far apart. i think vegas is looking for indy money here by not setting this at 6 or 6-. i think indy finishes the season anywhere from 2-2 to 0-4 SU. indy is coming off two big wins, including a huge comeback victory on the road last week against the jhapless lions. they've won 6 of 7 but i just don't think they are that good. maybe i'm wrong, but this looks like a good spot for a letdown against a team they already beat on the road.

possible play on tennessee here. i really would like 6 though and i know i'm not getting it. despite their great record, indy only has two wins by more than 5 this season.

NYJ -2- @ Jax - i thought getty and the other thousand or so jaguars fans were going to be treated to a tebow start when tebow comes home but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. goodell should pull a david stern and force the jets to start tebow if he's healthy. what the darn are they doing starting sanchez each week. he may have some life as a qb in the nfl but not with this team. tebow starting here would be the highlight of all jacksonville home games.

anyway, no the jets should not be favored over anyone on the road. but yes, vegas had to make the jets the favorite here so you get a line of 2-. i probably can't mess with it. the jets surprised me when they took our money easily at Stl a couple of weeks ago. we were all over buffalo last week in a rare win in a buffalo game but jax isn't playing well on the road in buffalo after a nice win the week before. anything is possible here. you can't trust either team. what does getty say?

one more point about the jaguars. you know your team is a mess when they are absolutely horrible last season and need help at almost every position and take a punter in the third round and everyione laughs at you. but then it turns out if was a great pick because he's the best player on the team. that's jaguars football.

 

[ClubDirt]

Chc -2- @ Minn - very interesting line here. why not 3? is it because chicago just beat up on minnesota and it's hard to beat a division rival twice in a matter of two weeks, with the second one being on the road. if that's it, then i'd lean to chicago. they are clearly the better team. it could be that chicago has lost their 3 other games they've played recently but those were against much tougher competition.

hard not to take chicago here. they need the win. they are the better team. forget about the last three losses. in the newsletter before week 9, we liked chicago with a relatively short spread against tennessee because although they had been struggling for two weeks (two close wins against bad teams), tennessee was the last bad team they were going to play before the schedule got much tougher. they needed to beat up on tennessee to get some confidence to see where they stood against the top tems. they did beat up on tennessee but they also proved to not be in the same league as the best teams.

so now chicago is back to playing second tier teams. they need to win it and they should. i see one good win on minnesota's schedule and that came in september. they do have a good home record but when i see a line of 2- or less, i look at it as even and don't see what minnesota has done to be expected to win this one. if the line is 2- because chicago just beat them two weeks ago, chicago might be worth a play here. is there another reason?

Atl -3- @ Car - of major concern if you were interested in the favorite is it seems to us that the way to beat up on carolina is to run all over them. they have a bad run defense. one, i'm not sure atlanta is capable of doing it. more importantly, i'm not sure they know how to do it. the craziest thing about last week's win against NO was atlanta's horrible game plan. i laughed when i saw a thread or two saying NO was the right side. no, not only was NO the wrong side, that game should have been 34-7 atlanta.

why? atlanta's first drive looked like a college game. fat, slow michael turner was running all over NO. next thing you know, early in the game, Atl is up 17-0. Atl was averaging around 6-7 yards per carry. so what does Atl do? they quit running the ball. with a 17-0 lead against a garbage defense and a great QB, how do you not run the ball over and over. of course Atl let No back in the game and they easily could have won or covered if brees quit throwing interceptions.

now, you never want to put too much emphasis on a gameplan in one game but we've seen atlanta do that before. it will cost them. maybe this week, maybe not. carolina has a bad run defense like the saints do. they are better at pass defense. if Atl people up their gameplan this week, they will have to win with a late FG or lose outright.

because of this and i just don't like Atl as a road favorite of more than 3 in a divisional game, carolina gets a strong look here. last week was a bad loss for carolina but they have shown the ability to bounce back from a loss and at least keep the game close after a bad loss. situationally, carolina looks a little better, the line is a little high, Atl was terrible last week from a coaching/gameplan perspective. things could change 180 degrees this week as often happens in the nfl, but since we have had Atl as overrated all season, i'm not going to assume it will.

 

[Marlo]

who's "we"

 

[ClubDirt]

TB -9 over someone



Stl @ Buff -3 hate to push our luck. we won betting buffalo last week for the first time in a while after losing badly with them the week before. could last week's easy game against jax be the catalyst to unlock the talent this team has? who knows with this team. they re in the wildcard race and get a nice win against miami and get beat up by indy in a game that was worse than the final score. last week's win doesn't mean much. buffalo is just too hard to predict.

as for Stl we loved the points last week but they'll need to win this one to get the money. they've been good on the road this season so they've shown they can win. i think they can be the better team on any given week and are certainly more reliable. i don't like that they are coming off three very strong games against divisional opponents and the only other game in there was a terrible, inexplicable loss to the jets. maybe they aren't getting up for these afc east games. they are 0-3 against them but did cover on the road in miami.

this is a close call. i do like the points. possible play on Stl here.

Dallas @ Cincy -3 huge game for cincy. both pitt and indy are favored to win (although i'm not sure they both do) and cincy needs to get a win to stay in the wildcard race. cincy's schedule ends with @ pitt and home Blt so these next two against the nfc least are big. so, we should get a max effort out of cincy who has won 4 straight. while we liked cincy to overtake pitt and blt this season, they haven't quite don ehtta but they are still in the race. they are on a winning streak but it's a pretty ugly one. KC, Oak and SD are either copmplete garbage or have quit, or both. the win against the giants was nice though. so cincy does have two good wins this season (NYG and @ Wash) both of which came against the overrated NFC east. that bodes well for this one.

while i'm concerned with cincy's 4 game winning streak, the most recent three coming against some of the worst the league has to offer, i do think we can say cincy is the better team which is nice getting them at home at 3 or less.

dallas is a complete mess. they have won 3 of 4 but two were against philly so that counts about as much as cincy's recent streak. dallas is giving up way too many points. philly, which is near the bottom of the league in points/game, just put up 56 in two games, washm, which does have a good offense, put up 38 two weeks ago and the browns, who are in the bottom quarter of the league, got 20 and forced OT. cincy has been putting up points at home this season.

i don't love this situation for either team but they both need it and it could be one where you just take the better team at 3 or less at home figure the best effort from both will lead to an expected result. possible play on cincy here.

 

[ClubDirt]

Miami @ SF -10 we played our first big spread a few weeks ago and won with the patriots over indy. if we are going to do it, we'll only do it with the best teams. i can see doing it here. what we all know is miami is running out of steam. i'm not sure how they were playing well earlier in the season with a team that has some promise but needs much more time to be good. of course, on the road, they've won or been in every game except their opener @ houston which was a tough place to start with a rookie qb. tannehill has proven to be a legitimate rookie starter but this game will be a lot like the houston game. this is just a nasty defense to be playing against on the road with a team that is struggling and not a serious playoff contender.

as for SF, here's what i can see happening. harbaugh is a great coach but you can tell he's an arrogant guy. i'm sure he loved it when SF beat up on chicago and NO with kaepernick when everyone questioned his decision to sit smith. i thought it was a terrible idea, still do, but he looked like a genius for two weeks. and then SF loses to Stl in a divisional revenge game and now people are back to questioning the decision. assuming kaepernick is starting, and it looks like he is, what harbuagh will be looking for is a blowout win to justify his decision. add to that the fact that SF will looking to boucne back after a bad loss and SF should be fired up here. this just looks like a bad place for miami on sunday.

look at what SF has done after their bad losses. after losing badly to a weak minnesota team, they dismantled the jets. the jets are a lot like miami here. after geting smoked by the giants, they beat seattle. they didn't cover but seattle is a tough out for anyone with a great defense. then SF had that ugly tei at home to Stl and came back and blew up the bears. so ehre we are agains and i think the kaepernick angle leands itself to more motivation, at least from harbaugh's perspective, to win convincingly here.

along the same lines, SF was 3-0 SU and ATS last season after SU losses. two were blowouts. in the 3 games following the losses, opponents scored a total of 11 points.

possible play on SF

 

[ClubDirt]

NO @ NYG -4- the saints team i know should be getting more than 4- here. the saints team i know has one good win (maybe 2) all season and can't stop anyone on defense. the giants in must win situations late in the season typically come through. what is this line? is it because brees was so bad last week, they figure he's going to come back and win this one? brees is an all-star by any measure but he's surrounded by a shitty team, an abysmal defense and a terrible coach. i'm not going to get too far into this one. i think the giants can have their way with the saints. huge coaching mismatch. the giants should have plenty of film on that saints defense to do whatever they want. the saints don't run the ball and don't stop the run. brees is great but he can't do it alone and you saw last week what can happen when you don't run the ball and you don't have the coaching, the gameplan, the defense or the other offensive weapons to still make it work.

how do the saints stay in this one? the giants are only one game up on washington who is charging to the finish. washington will be favored in all of their remaining games. the giants will probably be underdogs in 2 of their last 4. they need this one. i trust them over the saints. very poswsible play on NYG here.


oh my, did i see this right

AZ @ Sea -10 weekly ClubDirtSports.com readers know i've been a huge fan of seattle and Stl this season and very much down on AZ. i would have loved to see this matchup in week 3 or 4 and taken seattle all day at -4 or so. can we take tham at -10. i think jm zorn was throwing to steve largent (someone check and make sure they played together) the last time seattle was a 10 point favorite.

i like it because i do think seattle is more than 10 points better in seattle. i also like it because last week's game against the jets was one of the sorriest displays of football you'll see in the nfl and this is a much bigger challenge. AZ's offense is really struggling. there have been some good offenses coming to seattle and no one is really scoring. i don't see how AZ does. this is a big game for seattle to stay in the wildcard lead. they should get the second spot if they take care of business,. they can go 3-1 or 4-0 to end the season.

hard to see seattle losing this game so the obvious question is whether they win by two touchdowns. that's what you're looking for with a 10 point spread. well, they are 5-0 at home. in the games against tems that aren't very good, each win was by double digits. this game probably most resembles the jets game which was a blowout. seattle will get some consideration here.

 

[ClubDirt]

i don't like Gb giving 7 against detroit. while i don't like detroit as a team, their styles are too similar for a 7 point spread in my opinion. i doubt i'll play it though.

it is interesting that NE is -3- rather than just 3. houston is the better team. why 3-? is it because of houston's odd scheduling. third road game in three weeks with a thursday night game and a MNF game this week. that has to disrupt them in some way. but the last three games have been against very weak competition. i'm sure they've been looking forward to this one for a little while.

NE has only played one defense like this all season (@ saettle) and that didn't go very well. this looks like too many points to me. i actually think it should be even although i think vegas should have set it at 3.


good luck


ClubDirtSports.com "Inside us there is something that has no name, that something is what we are."

 

[ClubDirt]

marlo, that's a question that comes up each week but i guess those responses are gone forever. the entire board of directors of ClubDirtSports cannot be named here. suffice it to say that you have full access to its founder and CEO in this thread. the other two executives, ages 6 and 8, each contribute information in his/her own way with analysis mostly related to team colors, mascots and fun facts about the cities where the teams play. but rest assured their contributions are properly and successfully incorporated into all ClubDirtSports proprietary information.

 

[ClubDirt]

i don't like Gb giving 7 against detroit. while i don't like detroit as a team, their styles are too similar for a 7 point spread in my opinion. i doubt i'll play it though.

it is interesting that NE is -3- rather than just 3. houston is the better team. why 3-? is it because of houston's odd scheduling. third road game in three weeks with a thursday night game and a MNF game this week. that has to disrupt them in some way. but the last three games have been against very weak competition. i'm sure they've been looking forward to this one for a little while.

NE has only played one defense like this all season (@ saettle) and that didn't go very well. this looks like too many points to me. i actually think it should be even although i think vegas should have set it at 3.


good luck


ClubDirtSports.com "Inside us there is something that has no name, that something is what we are."

sorry forgot to delete the .com part. that is more esoteric covers stuff. there is no website. just fucking around making fun of people who sell picks.

 

[ClubDirt]

since these initial impressions to the lines, a few things. getty noted that the jaguars are really banged up. this is a team that starts few nfl caliber players to begin with so if they have a few injuries, it affects them more than most. i still hate betting th jets as a road favorite and not sure i can do it but i will give the jets a look.

baltimore appears to be pretty banged up on defense not getting the players back that were questionable. i don't like this game much but it's going to be a tough matchup for them the way washington is playing, particularly on offense.

crazy shit in dallas. if you read what i wrote about the Car/KC game last week, then it's pretty clear that i wouldn't pay extra for cincy based on this. i can't imagine why anyone would. i think cincy is already fully valued at 3. i haven't checked the line but if it goes to 3- or more, i won't play them. certainly dallas may be all fucked up and mail this one in but it doesn't make sense to give up key points based on nonfootball-related incidents that are impossible to determine their effect. if anything, it makes sense to take free, extra points when others are purely speculating, often wrongly.

good luck.

 

[bones]

Thanks for the post