ClubDirt Weekly Newsletter #16

ClubDirt

ClubDirt

Pretty much a regular
Atl -3- @ Det - detroit seemingly hit rock bottom last week getting blown out to the cardinals who lost 58-0 the week before and seemingly quit on the season. but just like with AZ last week, you know how we operate. when a team puts out an especially bad performance and everyone wants to write them off the next week, that's when we like to play them. detroit has lost 6 straight but last week's loss was somethign special. the prior 5 losses were all to certain playoff teams or at least teams with a decent shot at the playoffs. and then there was the AZ game. i think our system, for lack of abetter word hold true here. detroit is coming off their worst loss of the year by far, and technically, really their only bad loss as they've had a tough schedule, there are clear internal problems and the team just sucks overall. who would take them against a team with two losses who just destroyed the giants? that's when we get interested. it sets up well. detroit can't do anything right and is at a low point. atlanta has run through their schedule and is back on track with a statement win against the giants. they should handle the lowly lions easily.

so, this is as clear a buy low/sell high play as you'll see. the only think i don't like is the line. i though we'd see 4 or 4- here. i suppose people just don't want to let go of the idea that detroit really sucks and no one has really considered atlanta one of the elite teams. i guess that's what is keeping the line down. i'm going to wait and see what the line does. but it definitely gets a look as a trademark ClubDirtSports buy low/sell high play.

keep in mind when the buy low/sell high plays don't work, you often get an ugly loss. these plays aren't easy to make. but when they work well, AZ beats detroit by 28 as a 6 point dog.


Tenn @ GB -12- tennessee didn't win on MNF as much as they tried to lose a little less than the jets who gave losing everything they had. but there wasn't much to like about that tennessee victory. so tenn is coming off an ugly MNF win with their shitty defense and goes on the road to GB. it's just not a good situation for Tenn. however, this is a huge spread and i don't see it as a great situation for GB either. they are coming off a huge road win against their biggest rival that also locked up the division. yes, there is some playoff positioning that may be relevant for GB but you have to figure this is letdown territory after last week.

could GB win this by 21 even if they are only 80% into it? yes, but we aren't betting they do. this looks more like a 24-14 type game or a backdoor cover than a GB blowout. more than that, it looks like one to stay away from. with two teams in possible letdown spots, the under might make sense but we aren't playing totals this season so take that with a grain of salt.
 
Oka @ Car -9- oh my, that's spread is huge. Oak is coming off a huge shutout win . ok, not huge but still a shutout. that has to give them some confidence. Car is coming off two pretty good wins. this line is telling me this is going to be a blowout. if you look at Oak on the road, it wouldn't surprise anyone. vegas doesn't have much confidence in Oak going to the east coast for the early start when that sweet offseason is only about a week away. i can see it. Oak hasn't shown up on the road since 10/28 and that was KC so it doesn't really count. no, i can't lay that many points on a bad defensive team like Car but i can see where a blowout would be coming from so i'll probably lay off.

Buff @ Mia -4 Mia got it done last week as we figured they would play with the motivation of getting to .500 as we estimated they would be favorites in 2 of their last 3 and it's certainly possible NE wouldn't have anything to play for in the last game. plus Jax and Buff are significantly easier matchups than what they've seen in the prior three weeks. buffalo at home isn't much worse than jax on the road depending on which buffalo team shows up. that's the thing with buffalo. they are very erratic. they cover easily @ NE and beat miami and then turn around adn lose to Stl at home and do whatever it was they did last week against Sea.

so, there are a few things in play here. Buff did beat Mia and Mia should be motivated by both a .500 record and in season revenge in a game they should win. on the other side, you have buffalo coming off a humiliating defeat and are a buy low team that should bounce back against a division rival they think they can beat. on the other hand, outside of that, buffalo doesn't have much to play for and this is a team many expected to be in the playoffs so the "quit" factor is definitely present.

i'm tempted by the 4 points. but again, at 5-9, buffalo may be a team who has quit disguised as a buy low team. the seattle beatdown could give them some motivation or push them further into offseason mode. i'm comfortable that miami will have motivation. i just don't wnt to give 4 points. probably another no play.
 
Cincy @ Pitt -3- at first glance, i didn't get the line. this should be 3 at the most. from a motivational standpoint, both teams are even. they both need it. but situationally, pitt's backs are really against the wall. both of their last two losses are bad. SD because they suck and it was a home game. dallas, because they are beatable and pitt gave the game away. so, it's going to take a lot to push Pitt into a 3 game losing streak. with ben in his 3rd game back and pitt at home where their defense plays better, there's a good argument that pitt is more than 3 points better in this situation.

as for cincy, they can see the division title within reach. that would be huge for this team for obvious reasons. i don't like the sirtuation as much. basically they are coming off a bye with extra rest. i like the urgency of pitt better here. and while cincy's recent record looks much better than pitt, it isn't as good as it looks. they really didn't play well against a terrible philly team and only pulled away when philly turned it over at every opportunity. the week before that, they gave one away badly to dallas. before that, you have 3 straight against the bottom feeders in the AFC west. so, this is cincy's toughest and most intense matchup since 11/11 at home against NYG. i hate to give 3- points in a game where the favorite could easily lose outright but we've seen this pittsburgh team in this situation many times and they've often done well. we haven't seen cincy do it and i'm not sure the last few weeks have set them up well for this matchup.

possible play on Pitt
 
NE -14- @ Jax - Jax has to lead the league in huge spreads this season. 14- points at home? that's sad. first, here's my theory. MJD isn't hurt. he may have been hurt for a game or two but he's been healthy enough to play for a while. he was pissed and tried that pathetic holdout that everyone knew wouldn't and shouldn't result in giving him more money and he came back as everyone expected not a dime richer. and then he had that play early in the season where he allegedly got hurt, although it didn't look bad at all, and he hasn't played since. MJD doesn't want to play because the team is going nowhere and there's no need to beat himself up each week. besides RB's have a very short shelf life in the NFL and MJD's should be shorter than most. Jax doesn't care because he is a quality asset they want to protect. maybe they resign him, maybe they trade him, or maybe they just want to see what the team can do without him. anyway, that's my guess, file that in the people making a shitload of money faking an injury who get paid to do nothing file.

as for this game, obviously we can't take the patriots. that's a ridiculous road spread. people must assum NE will be pissed after that at first ugly but then just tough loss to SF. i'm sure they are but i'm not sure brady and belichik really give a garbage about taking it out on Jax so close to the playoffs. my guess is NE mails this one in. there is no reason for them to run it up. this isn't houston pretending to be a super bowl favorite. this isn't the colts pretending to be a playoff contender this season. this isn't a division rival the patriots love to beat up on (jets). those are the last three blowouts. this is a team NE cares nothing about. they want their win and go back home to get ready for the playoffs.

again, a 75% NE team can win this by 21. or we could be dead wrong adn NE comes out with a vengeance and puts up 40. my guess is this is more like one of those NE games we see where they get their points early and move on and end up winning 27-16. usually, that kind of analysis isn't enough for a play but i do like betting against the idea that NE is pissed and will come out strong this week.

possible play on jax
 
Indy -7 @ KC - ok, this is rock bottom. getting shutout bu the raiders who routinely gives up 30+ to good and average teams. it's almost impossible to do. what kind of odds do you think you could have gotten this season on whether KC would throw a shutout. anyway, that does put KC in the buy low category. we've seen them there before and played them against pitt in an easy cover after getting blown out by miami in week 2 when people thought miami was the worst and KC might contend for the division. they have plenty of other big losses but the miami one was probably the worst because it was a blowout to a bad team (perceived at the time) and when the season had hope.

so KC is in the buy low situation again. will they respond again or mail it in. one other factor indicating they will is the recent news that crennel won't be back. obviously, not a big surprise to anyone but the fact of the announcement makes it real for KC players who like crennel as a coach. that was the hard thing to understand about KC this season. they have some talent. they can run the ball. they play in a weak division. they weren't just bad but they didn't even compete many weeks. crennel isn't a good head coach but he seems like a great guy the players would want to play hard for. anyway, the crennel announcement also leads me to slighty lean to KC. last home game, maybe they want to try and play hard for crennel in front of what is usually a good home crowd.

no, we don't like the colts. we think they are overrated. but they've done nothing recently but win 3 straight when the playoffs are on the line and cover most of the game against an angry texans team who only got with cover with a front door field goal. all that to say, we're probably wrong about the colts.

but i do like the buy low situation here. we still think the colts are overrated although this spread looks right. you wouldn't expect to see it under 7. 7- or 8 wouldn't be a surprise.

KC has been largely immune to good situations this season but they did cover for us in a similar one against Pitt and the crennel factor may give them a lift.

possible play on KC


NO @ Dallas -1 not much of a first impression here. i thought there was some value on TB last week and we saw what NO did to them. we played against dallas last week and suffered a tough loss. so, we can't say we have a good read on either team right now. we have a good history with dallas but there are conflicting signals. dallas obviously will be motivated to try and win the division or at least get a WC. however, they've won 3 in a row and all three were pretty shaky wins so you have to wonder if either bad romo comes out pretty soon or dallas just doesn't get the breaks they've been getting.

we don't like No at all. terrible coaching, never run the ball, put too much pressure on brees and shitty defense. can't take them to win at dallas.

no opinion at all here.
 
Wash -6 @ Philly looks like RG3 will play in this one. philly hit rock bottom last week with that embarrassing loss to cincy. i didn't play that debacle but it shows you how quickly a game can turn. philly and the under looked like the best bets in that one and then phuilly implodes with the ridiculous turnovers and 5 minutes later cincy and the over are locked in. philly looks like a good candidate to quit after that one. i won't bet on them at under 7. i see a lot of similarities between philly and KC and i think washington is better than indy. KC is getting 7. if you are going to play one of these shitty teams, seems like there may be more value with KC in that situation. why should philly care about this game. probably no play here.


Stl @ TB -3 we went to the well one too many times backing Stl last week. can't complain though as they've been good to us practically all season. do we keep it going here? TB got humiliated last week. how do you get shutout by the saints. that may be the worst defense to ever get a shutout in the NFL. but, as much as we hate to see it this week, what that does is put TB in the buy low category. so next we have to determine if we think they quit or boucne back. my guess is they boucne back. they have a young coach who they seem to like and has had success motivating this team this season. this is a bad football team yet they were 6-4 at one pioint. but then the schedule got a little harder and they showed their true colors.

so, TB is a good bouceback candidate after last week, they have played hard just abouty every week and take a step down in competition here. plus, they aren't going to the playoffs but 8-8 is still a pretty good season after 4-12 last season. Tb should be motivated here in a game they know they can win.

on to my favorite team. ugly loss last week. not of the 41-0 variety but the score looks better than it was. Stl got down early and never had a chance. Stl is a covering machine but they aren't good enough to play badly, get behind and stay in it. however, they are technically still in the playoff race so they should be motivated. and i think they are the better team. getting 3 points against TB is always nice.

i don't like betting against teams they had especially bad performances the prior week unless it's fairly clear they've quit. i'm not sure TB has. i'll consider Stl because we like them but most likely, we'll have to get off the Stl train until further notice.
 
NYG -1 @ Blt - we may have been premature in criticizing our preseason prediction that cincy would win this division. the shrimps are in full meltdown mode, can't believe they didn't compete at home last week. here's the thing, though, and this isn't good gambling analysis but is Blt really going to end the season 0-5/ anything is possible and that's no reason to bet on Blt but it might be a reason to stay away from NYG, which is to say, this team needs to get a win and will be really fired up to do it. motivation is huge this time of year. harbaugh is too good to go out 0-5. and it's not like their last 3 losses were terrible. all were against playoff quality teams and two were very close.

we've had a good read on the giants this season, particularly the last two weeks. they were in a must win position against a weak defense and inferior opponent and took care of business against the saints. different story last week going into Atl, a team that hasn't lost 2 in a row in years and needed a big win to gain confidence for the playoffs.

so what is this situation? looks more like the NO game two weeks ago- they got humiliated last week, they are now in a 3 way tie for the division and one of those teams won't be in the playoffs.

both teams really need a win, the giants a little more than the ravens because the ravens are at least in the playoffs. the giants look like the better team right now so i'd lean to the giants but it's close.

here's one problem with the giants. david wilson started at RB last week. the giants didn't do much on offense but you might look at wilson's stats and see that he averaged 4.6 yards/carry on 12 rushes, no fumbles and think he wasn't the problem. but he was a problem. there's a reason a guy named kregg lumpkin who previously averaged about 0.8 carries a game in his career had 9 carries last week. wilson can't block. he doesn't know who to block and he can't block him if he somehow figures it out.

i know the annoucners are no help but you can't just look at eli's stats and say he sucked that game. he may have but it may be a different isue in that he isn't getting the protection he's used to because wilson can't pick up a blitz.

do you think harbaugh may watch that film and have some blitzes ready for the rookie RB? however, while bradshaw does not get a lot of attention as one of the better RB's in the league, he is one of the best at picking up blitzes and blocking. i'm not saying that bradshaw will be the difference between a win or loss. but i am saying that this looks like a very tight matchup with both teams needing a win. i wouldn't make a play on the giants if i knew there might be trouble with pass protection. the giants offense isn't consistent enough this season to overcome that. if bradshaw does play, i'm more comfortable taking the giants because that's one less thing the coaches have to worry about in a tough road game.
 
Chc -5 @ Az - Az rewarded buy low/sell high players last week with an easy win over detroit who continues to be overrated as big road favorite last after three close games against playoff teams. interesting line here. detroit was -6 here but chicago is only -5. i seriously doubt people are buying into AZ after one win against detroit. so what does that mean? are people giving up on Chc after 3 straight losses? those were to 2 sure playoff teams and one possible WC team. this would be a bad loss for Chc and they don't have a bad loss all season.

it's not customary for us to take a road favorite on a reduced line against a bad team but there does seem to be some alue here compared to last week's line in AZ. Chc will obviously be motivated as they went from being possibly the division winner to now at serious risk for missing the playoffs. we know AZ is bad. we know Chc is better than Detroit who was -6 last week. we know Chc needs the win. we know this is Chc's easiest game sicne weeks 8 and 9. sems like Chc might be a good play here. possible play on Chc.

SF @ Sea E - great matchup here. it's not for the division as SF looks like they take the division either way but this is still a big game for both teams nevertheless. i know Sea doesn't lose at home but for my money, i'll take the better team with the better coach at a pick. we've loved seattle all season but i'm not sold on them being even with SF. they did get a nice win at Chc a couple of weeks ago but it doesn't look as good now with Chc struggling. outside of that, it's been AZ and Buff and Miami and the Jets. Sea has mostly taken care of business but i'm not sure that recent schedule has prepared them for this competition here. i think it may inflate Sea's quality a little which gets us a fair line with the better team and better coach.

there is obviously a concern that SF just came off a huge prime time game against NE which was kind of the worst of both worlds situationally. winning at NE is maybe the biggest win in the NFl so there is a slight letdown possibility (SF did have a bad letdown in week 3 after beating up on two supposed playoff teams) but they also almost gave that game away so they have to be a little concerned about how that went down.

but i trust harbaugh to get them ready for this one. they've been ready in their big games this season. and again, on the other side, i'm not sure two 50 point games against buiff and AZ is the best setup for this matchup.

possible play on SF
 
this NE team has a shot at challenging their own record for points in a season. I think Bill B goes for it and goes for the jugular against a team thats done.
 
Sd @ NYJ -1 they should just cancel this one. i'm not playing it. it's a battle fo who mails it in more. both teams are a disaster, the jets more than anyone, but do you want to trust norv to get you a road win in NY? i don't know what tebow ever did to jets' management but what a waste picking him up was. tebow can't be a spark to get sanchez going if you never follow through and put him in the lineup.

anyway, we're not afraid to say that we had last week's jets game nailed as to what the jets needed to do to win, or lose, that game. and they made a conscious decision to lose it. i'll jsut post my thoughts after the game if anyone is interested, not that it helps now because jets games are unbettable in my opinion these last two weeks. it would be one thing if they were playing a decent team on sunday but SD may be the worst team to back if you are looking to fade a jets team in turmoil the first week after being eliminated.


this is from earlier in the week

it really is an abortion. and yes sanchez is as bad as people say but it's not just him. he doesn't have much around him, the coaching is horrible and the playcalling is worse. as an example, sanchez finally got some momentum and made some good passes. and what do the jets do? they pull him for the circus qb. absolutely incredible decision. it was so rare to see sanchez actually hitting all the right spots, it would be like pulling that shitty philip humber in the 8th inning of his perfect game to bring in clay buchholz.

no qb could thrive in that environment. it just so happens that sanchez sucks so it's that much worse.

i know this isn't a popular opinion but i do thinhk sanchez will be a good backup in the league for years and possinly a bwelow average to average starter for a different program. you guys can come back and call me an idiot in 3 years if that doesn't come true. or do it now.

going forward, they have to get rid of sanchez. it can't work at this point.

as for last night, bringing in tebow for a few snals here and there is just stupid. the jets did it at the worst possible time. but if tebow had started and played the whole game, i think the jets win that game. it was so obviuos that the key to the jets winning was to get 30+ rushes and keep the ball out of sanchez's hands as much as possible. a your league flag football coach could have figured that out. at the beginning of the 4th quarter, the jets had 21 rushing attempts if you take out 2 sanchez scrambles on pass plays. so, they could still execute the right gameplan if ryan or sparano was paying attention. it was even more obvious in the 4th because greene was running well and the titans shitty run defense was tired. it's amazing that the jets didn't figure that out and let sanchez throw long balls. greene ends up with only 13 carries, the jets have fewer than 30 true running plays and they lose on 4 int's.

forget sanchez and tebow for a minute, with some good, intelligent coaches in the league, someone tell me how the jets can compete with ryan and sparano.
 
one update- bradshaw practiced today. agains, i know bradshaw isn't tom brady but these kinds of players are the difference between 12 yard passes or a bad sack, or a incomplete pass or a huge INT that changes the game. pass protection is a big deal, especially the way the giants are playing. i kind of wish he wasn't playing in which case i'd definitely avoid this game. with bradshaw over wilson, i'll consider the giants.


"The purpose of art is to . . . make certain that when you rush through you will not miss the moment which you might have had, or might still have."

good luck

happy festivus

merry christmas and all the rest of it


an_cheers.gif
 
bradshaw has a history of playing after only practicing once or not at all during the year. i think hes a go
 
D, hard to predict when NE will run it up against a far weaker opponent (Tenn and NYJ game 2) or mail it in (AZ and NYJ game 1). obviously, they ca play this out however they would like and get the W. i'm not making any bets guessing whether belichick tries hard or not. i'm just playing the line and people assuming belichick comes out firing pushes this line up over 14 in my opinion which leads me towards Jax although i'm not all the way there yet.

yes, looks like bradshaw will play. that really is a tough matchup. two desperate teams and two teams that were at once really good and really bad at different points in the season.


good luck this week.
 
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