Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 28
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, June 28, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Los Angeles' Offensive Limitations Inside
Teams do not tend to succeed when they lack an inside-out game. They have to be able to score effectively both inside and outside the arc.
One good example of such a team was Miami, which depended on scoring inside, but got swept by the Bucks with their paint-clogging defense.
The Clippers resemble Miami in the sense that they are unable to establish much offensively inside the arc.
In this round, the Clippers have converted 51-percent of their field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
For comparison's sake, the Orlando Magic ranked last during the regular season in converting 57.8- percent of their shots attempted within five feet of the hoop.
You might remember their last round against Utah: the Clippers turned that series around partly because they found success attacking the paint, which helped open things up behind the arc.
Suns' Interior Defense
Can things change for the Clipper offense? Can L.A. again find a way to succeed inside?
Against Utah, the Clippers went to small ball in order to force Jazz center Rudy Gobert away from the basket.
But Sun center Deandre Ayton does not share Gobert's vulnerability to small ball because Ayton is built to be more mobile and more flexible as a defender.
Ayton, who has combined for six blocks in his last two games alone, is altering whatever comes his way at the basket.
He is one component of the ample force that Phoenix's defense is able to devote inside in order to limit L.A.
Paul George
Paul George helped lead the Clippers to a series win against the Jazz.
During the end of that series, George looked like he was no longer "Playoff Paul."
Right now, he looks like "Playoff Paul" again. But the caustic nickname is hardly fair to him.
George is assuming a ridiculous load. In the first round against Dallas, he was already averaging 40 minutes a game, around seven more per game than he averaged during the regular season.
However, since star Kawhi Leonard remains out with a knee injury, he has to assume even greater responsibility.
He has accrued 40 or more minutes in five of the last six games. In the one exception, he played 39 minutes.
With Rajon Rondo having regressed in form relative to his contribution to the Lakers' bubble title last year, there isn't really anybody to mop up some minutes for George.
Besides just playing more minutes, PG is the team's primary shot-taker and generally its primary source of offense.
His stark reduction in shot efficiency is, to be sure, partly a consequence of Phoenix's defense.
But PG is also fatigued. Because he is repeatedly playing a game every two days, he lacks the time to regain his energy.
What L.A. Can Try
Undoubtedly, Los Angeles' biggest problem is scoring. This problem crystallized in an 80-point scoring output in Game 4, which the team nevertheless lost by only four points.
With their backs against the wall -- tonight is a 'win or go home' situation for the Clippers -- I suspect that they will do anything to relieve the burden of scoring placed on PG as well as on Reggie Jackson
In these playoffs, upticks in power forward Nicolas Batum's minutes have helped the Clippers win. I suspect that we see more of him as well as more of Luke Kennard.
I would add Marcus Morris to this list. But he has failed to reach double digits a single time in this series. He is playing fewer minutes probably because his knee is still bothering him and is curbing his potential to be productive.
Phoenix Offense
Whatever boost -- if any -- guys like Batum and Kennard could bring to the Clipper offense will be at best nullified by the liability that each player creates on defense.
Kennard has hardly been scoring more than Morris, anyways, and Batum's defensive rating this series has been poor and helps explain his ongoing reduction in minutes.
The lack of size that L.A.'s defense can offer inside -- especially with Batum on the floor -- is something that Phoenix can exploit with Ayton, who has been terrific also on offense this series as he's converting nearly 70-percent of his field goal attempts.
Chris Paul is the freshest star who is getting to his characteristic spots in the mid-range. He's leading all remaining players in this round of the playoffs in open field goal attempts per game, but is converting 30.4-percent of them. With two games behind him after a 10-day absence, he's bound to shake off his rust.
Ayton and Paul are just two guys who demand the defense's attention despite star scorer Devin Booker's presence on the court.
The Verdict
With Ayton and a potent midrange-game speared by guys like Paul and Booker, Phoenix has the scoring presence inside that the Clippers plainly lack.
George's fatigue and injuries to Morris and Kawhi limit the Clipper offense and hinder the team from using its extra reliance on three-point shooting to keep up with the Suns.
Best Bet: Suns -5.5 at -108 with Heritage
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, June 28, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Los Angeles' Offensive Limitations Inside
Teams do not tend to succeed when they lack an inside-out game. They have to be able to score effectively both inside and outside the arc.
One good example of such a team was Miami, which depended on scoring inside, but got swept by the Bucks with their paint-clogging defense.
The Clippers resemble Miami in the sense that they are unable to establish much offensively inside the arc.
In this round, the Clippers have converted 51-percent of their field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
For comparison's sake, the Orlando Magic ranked last during the regular season in converting 57.8- percent of their shots attempted within five feet of the hoop.
You might remember their last round against Utah: the Clippers turned that series around partly because they found success attacking the paint, which helped open things up behind the arc.
Suns' Interior Defense
Can things change for the Clipper offense? Can L.A. again find a way to succeed inside?
Against Utah, the Clippers went to small ball in order to force Jazz center Rudy Gobert away from the basket.
But Sun center Deandre Ayton does not share Gobert's vulnerability to small ball because Ayton is built to be more mobile and more flexible as a defender.
Ayton, who has combined for six blocks in his last two games alone, is altering whatever comes his way at the basket.
He is one component of the ample force that Phoenix's defense is able to devote inside in order to limit L.A.
Paul George
Paul George helped lead the Clippers to a series win against the Jazz.
During the end of that series, George looked like he was no longer "Playoff Paul."
Right now, he looks like "Playoff Paul" again. But the caustic nickname is hardly fair to him.
George is assuming a ridiculous load. In the first round against Dallas, he was already averaging 40 minutes a game, around seven more per game than he averaged during the regular season.
However, since star Kawhi Leonard remains out with a knee injury, he has to assume even greater responsibility.
He has accrued 40 or more minutes in five of the last six games. In the one exception, he played 39 minutes.
With Rajon Rondo having regressed in form relative to his contribution to the Lakers' bubble title last year, there isn't really anybody to mop up some minutes for George.
Besides just playing more minutes, PG is the team's primary shot-taker and generally its primary source of offense.
His stark reduction in shot efficiency is, to be sure, partly a consequence of Phoenix's defense.
But PG is also fatigued. Because he is repeatedly playing a game every two days, he lacks the time to regain his energy.
What L.A. Can Try
Undoubtedly, Los Angeles' biggest problem is scoring. This problem crystallized in an 80-point scoring output in Game 4, which the team nevertheless lost by only four points.
With their backs against the wall -- tonight is a 'win or go home' situation for the Clippers -- I suspect that they will do anything to relieve the burden of scoring placed on PG as well as on Reggie Jackson
In these playoffs, upticks in power forward Nicolas Batum's minutes have helped the Clippers win. I suspect that we see more of him as well as more of Luke Kennard.
I would add Marcus Morris to this list. But he has failed to reach double digits a single time in this series. He is playing fewer minutes probably because his knee is still bothering him and is curbing his potential to be productive.
Phoenix Offense
Whatever boost -- if any -- guys like Batum and Kennard could bring to the Clipper offense will be at best nullified by the liability that each player creates on defense.
Kennard has hardly been scoring more than Morris, anyways, and Batum's defensive rating this series has been poor and helps explain his ongoing reduction in minutes.
The lack of size that L.A.'s defense can offer inside -- especially with Batum on the floor -- is something that Phoenix can exploit with Ayton, who has been terrific also on offense this series as he's converting nearly 70-percent of his field goal attempts.
Chris Paul is the freshest star who is getting to his characteristic spots in the mid-range. He's leading all remaining players in this round of the playoffs in open field goal attempts per game, but is converting 30.4-percent of them. With two games behind him after a 10-day absence, he's bound to shake off his rust.
Ayton and Paul are just two guys who demand the defense's attention despite star scorer Devin Booker's presence on the court.
The Verdict
With Ayton and a potent midrange-game speared by guys like Paul and Booker, Phoenix has the scoring presence inside that the Clippers plainly lack.
George's fatigue and injuries to Morris and Kawhi limit the Clipper offense and hinder the team from using its extra reliance on three-point shooting to keep up with the Suns.
Best Bet: Suns -5.5 at -108 with Heritage
