Clippers vs. Nuggets Game 6: Best NBA Bets
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Sunday, September 13, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN) at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida
Key Trend
In this year’s playoffs, Denver is 4-0 ATS in elimination games.
Those four covers were also straight-up wins. The Nuggets came back from a 3-1 series deficit against Utah and then defeated the Clippers on Friday night.
Explaining The Trend
After trailing its series with Utah, Denver made a key schematic switch and began emphasizing more aggressive pick-and-roll coverage.
Right now, Denver’s positive trend in elimination games is continuing because the Nuggets are adjusting their player emphasis.
Los Angeles’s defense received significant credit for its performance in Game 4. But the Clippers were very much helped in the overemphasis that Denver placed on its top two players, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
Only six different Nugget players scored in the final half of Game 4. In contrast, the second half of Saturday’s contest saw nine different Nuggets score.
In Game 4, the Clippers showed more depth than Denver as evident in the fact that they had more double-digit scorers.
Whereas Denver had four double-digit scorers in Game 4, it had five in Game 5.
Depth
Los Angeles had been and still is touted for its supposed depth.
In the minds of many, this depth should have been decisive for the Clippers in this series.
The players who aren’t Kawhi Leonard or Paul George for L.A. or Murray or Jokic for Denver were supposed to be difference-making in this series.
What’s crucial right now is that Denver is proving that its depth is an absolutely underrated aspect of its team quality while the opposite may be said of the Clippers.
One current savior for the Nuggets is center Paul Millsap.
Denver doesn’t win Game 5 without Millsap’s 14-point effort in the third quarter.
Michael Porter Jr.
Michael Porter Jr. is the underrated piece who I want to focus on right now.
Porter Jr.’s scoring abilities were never in doubt. Neither was the potential for good defense generated by his physical measurements.
He still wasn’t a reliable defender and this weakness hurt his minutes.
But now he’s combining his length at 6-10 with positive focus on defense, improved communication, and stronger understanding of his defensive role.
In the last three games, no player has a better defensive rating than Porter Jr.
When he actually gets touches and gets minutes, he also remains important on the offensive end. His seven point effort down the stretch was at least as necessary for Denver’s win as Millsap’s 14-point third quarter.
Clippers’ Depth
L.A. is unable to close out this series because of its overrated ability to rely on players besides Kawhi and Paul George.
Doc Rivers is determined to rely on Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell for at least 20 minutes each.
But Williams has been awful shooting-wise and he can’t do much when baskets aren’t falling for him.
He’s 0-for-8 from deep in his past two games combined. So far this series, he’s 2-for-21 from three.
Harrell’s efforts are problematic also because he isn’t comparing to Williams in terms of defense.
His scoring average this series is down seven points relative to his season average and his defensive rating is likewise much worse than Williams’.
Murray and Jokic
Denver is staying in this series without Murray going insane with 40+-point scoring efforts as he did against the Jazz.
L.A. is focusing heavily on containing Murray’s driving efforts.
But Jokic is a great pick-and-roll partner with Murray because he is versatile enough to pop behind the arc. In this series, he’s converting 35.9 percent of his three-point attempts.
Jokic’s ability to facilitate offense by finding the right teammates to pass to is also underrated.
It’s a useful ability when Denver enjoys a four-on-three situation when the Clippers try to trap Murray. In this series, Jokic continues to average over five assists per game.
Since Porter Jr. flexes even higher three-point shooting percentages, he is a very strong candidate to team up with Murray on the pick-and-roll.
The Verdict
Depth is decisive in this series. The Clippers knew to focus defensively on Jamal Murray. While they are having trouble containing Jokic, they will also continue struggling to limit Denver’s other players.
As the Nuggets continue to pull off surprises when facing elimination, they may just find an additional player to step up in Game 6.
Given a key trend and superior depth, Denver will cover in Game 6.
Best Bet: Nuggets +8 (-105) with Heritage
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Sunday, September 13, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN) at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida
Key Trend
In this year’s playoffs, Denver is 4-0 ATS in elimination games.
Those four covers were also straight-up wins. The Nuggets came back from a 3-1 series deficit against Utah and then defeated the Clippers on Friday night.
Explaining The Trend
After trailing its series with Utah, Denver made a key schematic switch and began emphasizing more aggressive pick-and-roll coverage.
Right now, Denver’s positive trend in elimination games is continuing because the Nuggets are adjusting their player emphasis.
Los Angeles’s defense received significant credit for its performance in Game 4. But the Clippers were very much helped in the overemphasis that Denver placed on its top two players, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
Only six different Nugget players scored in the final half of Game 4. In contrast, the second half of Saturday’s contest saw nine different Nuggets score.
In Game 4, the Clippers showed more depth than Denver as evident in the fact that they had more double-digit scorers.
Whereas Denver had four double-digit scorers in Game 4, it had five in Game 5.
Depth
Los Angeles had been and still is touted for its supposed depth.
In the minds of many, this depth should have been decisive for the Clippers in this series.
The players who aren’t Kawhi Leonard or Paul George for L.A. or Murray or Jokic for Denver were supposed to be difference-making in this series.
What’s crucial right now is that Denver is proving that its depth is an absolutely underrated aspect of its team quality while the opposite may be said of the Clippers.
One current savior for the Nuggets is center Paul Millsap.
Denver doesn’t win Game 5 without Millsap’s 14-point effort in the third quarter.
Michael Porter Jr.
Michael Porter Jr. is the underrated piece who I want to focus on right now.
Porter Jr.’s scoring abilities were never in doubt. Neither was the potential for good defense generated by his physical measurements.
He still wasn’t a reliable defender and this weakness hurt his minutes.
But now he’s combining his length at 6-10 with positive focus on defense, improved communication, and stronger understanding of his defensive role.
In the last three games, no player has a better defensive rating than Porter Jr.
When he actually gets touches and gets minutes, he also remains important on the offensive end. His seven point effort down the stretch was at least as necessary for Denver’s win as Millsap’s 14-point third quarter.
Clippers’ Depth
L.A. is unable to close out this series because of its overrated ability to rely on players besides Kawhi and Paul George.
Doc Rivers is determined to rely on Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell for at least 20 minutes each.
But Williams has been awful shooting-wise and he can’t do much when baskets aren’t falling for him.
He’s 0-for-8 from deep in his past two games combined. So far this series, he’s 2-for-21 from three.
Harrell’s efforts are problematic also because he isn’t comparing to Williams in terms of defense.
His scoring average this series is down seven points relative to his season average and his defensive rating is likewise much worse than Williams’.
Murray and Jokic
Denver is staying in this series without Murray going insane with 40+-point scoring efforts as he did against the Jazz.
L.A. is focusing heavily on containing Murray’s driving efforts.
But Jokic is a great pick-and-roll partner with Murray because he is versatile enough to pop behind the arc. In this series, he’s converting 35.9 percent of his three-point attempts.
Jokic’s ability to facilitate offense by finding the right teammates to pass to is also underrated.
It’s a useful ability when Denver enjoys a four-on-three situation when the Clippers try to trap Murray. In this series, Jokic continues to average over five assists per game.
Since Porter Jr. flexes even higher three-point shooting percentages, he is a very strong candidate to team up with Murray on the pick-and-roll.
The Verdict
Depth is decisive in this series. The Clippers knew to focus defensively on Jamal Murray. While they are having trouble containing Jokic, they will also continue struggling to limit Denver’s other players.
As the Nuggets continue to pull off surprises when facing elimination, they may just find an additional player to step up in Game 6.
Given a key trend and superior depth, Denver will cover in Game 6.
Best Bet: Nuggets +8 (-105) with Heritage
