NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Sacramento Kings
Friday, January 15, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Clippers’ Defense
The Clippers are a hard team to back because their defense consistently lets them down regardless of how well or poorly the opposing offense has played this season.
On January 5, the Clippers gave up 116 points to the Spurs in a loss where they allowed opposing guard Patty Mills to drain eight three-pointers.
A few days later, L.A. blew a second-half lead against the Warriors. The Warriors scored 64 second-half points en route to a 115-105 victory. Steph Curry hit nine three-pointers in that game.
Then, the Clippers gave up 127 points in a near upset loss against the Bulls and gave up 35 fourth-quarter points as they edged out the Pelicans at home.
In that near loss to Chicago, opposing guard Zach LaVine scored 10 threes.
Many Culprits
One might expect more from a unit that features Kawhi Leonard, who has cultivated a reputation for being a strong defender.
But his defensive rating is currently the worst that it’s ever been in any season for him.
Moreover, a lot of L.A.’s bench players are offense-oriented.
Luke Kennard, for example, is a high-percentage three-point shooter but suffers from a bad defensive rating.
Similar stories — of 20+ minutes and bad defense — can be told of guys like Lou Williams and Marcus Morris.
L.A.’s Perimeter Defense
One may notice a trend from my summary above of the Clippers’ recent struggles on defense.
Opposing guards are having huge games against this L.A. defense. They are productive especially behind the arc.
I think that opposing three-point percentage can be a fluke. But what makes the Clippers’ perimeter defense certainly poor is the way in which they make life easy for opposing shooters.
As measured by percentage, the Clippers allow the third-highest frequency of open three-point shot attempts. “Open” is defined as the nearest defender being 4-6 feet away from the shooter.
From watching footage, it’s evident that teams do not need to achieve much ball movement in order to locate an open shooter against this Clipper defense.
For example, modest instances of dribble penetration will attract excessive help inside where Clipper players will leave their man behind the arc.
Taking Advantage
Plenty of King players can take advantage of what the Los Angeles defense will offer them.
One player to note especially right now is Buddy Hield.
Hield is a high-volume shooter who is enjoying a hot streak. In his past two games combined, he is 14-for-29 from three.
Tyrese Haliburton is also a factor given his recent ascendance. He is playing more minutes and still making over half of his three-point attempts.
Sacramento’s Defense
Like L.A.’s, Sacramento’s defense has recently been awful. In each of their past six games, the Kings have allowed at least 124 points.
These aren’t offensive juggernauts, either, that are torching the King defense.
Toronto, for example, ranks 16th in points per game despite having faced the Kings. The Raptors produced 144 points in Sacramento.
Sacramento’s Perimeter Defense
Sacramento allows the highest frequency of open three-point attempts.
This statistic is worrisome given the fact that L.A. is the NBA’s most efficient three-point shooting team. Collectively, the Clippers shoot 42.9 percent from deep.
In addition to Kennard, look out for Paul George, who is building off his career-best shooting performance last season. This season, George is knocking down over half of his three-point attempts.
Playing A Side
What the Kings love to do best on offense is something that they can do extremely well against the Clippers.
Sacramento is achieving the third-highest frequency of plays in transition.
This is where De’Aaron Fox shines. He’s very comfortable streaking down the court off an opponent's basket. He’ll also show good anticipation to steal a pass for a fast break opportunity. In accruing steals, he makes use of what is a great wing span for a guard.
Until now, the Clipper transition defense has hardly been tested. L.A. has faced one team that ranks top 10 in frequency of transition points. That team was the Lakers, which rank 10th.
Despite being poorly tested in this area, L.A. allows the second-worst PPP (points per possession) average against transition opportunities.
The Verdict
Given Sacramento’s consistent lack of defensive quality as measured, for example, by how many points they are regularly conceding per game, we can easily expect the Clippers to score 130 points.
For the “over” we would only need close to 100 points from the Kings, who average 114.8 points per game and have accrued at least 99 points in 11 of their 12 games thus far.
Against L.A.’s struggling defense, we should expect the Kings to score more than their average. Since they match up well, I expect the Kings to keep pace with if not defeat the Clippers.
Transition opportunities will fall in Sacramento’s favor, allowing for quick and easy baskets which help both the “over” and Sacramento’s opportunity to cover the spread.
If the Clippers were to win, they would have achieved their best win streak of the season, which would be unusual given the state of their defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Kings +6 at -110 & Over 228.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Sacramento Kings
Friday, January 15, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Clippers’ Defense
The Clippers are a hard team to back because their defense consistently lets them down regardless of how well or poorly the opposing offense has played this season.
On January 5, the Clippers gave up 116 points to the Spurs in a loss where they allowed opposing guard Patty Mills to drain eight three-pointers.
A few days later, L.A. blew a second-half lead against the Warriors. The Warriors scored 64 second-half points en route to a 115-105 victory. Steph Curry hit nine three-pointers in that game.
Then, the Clippers gave up 127 points in a near upset loss against the Bulls and gave up 35 fourth-quarter points as they edged out the Pelicans at home.
In that near loss to Chicago, opposing guard Zach LaVine scored 10 threes.
Many Culprits
One might expect more from a unit that features Kawhi Leonard, who has cultivated a reputation for being a strong defender.
But his defensive rating is currently the worst that it’s ever been in any season for him.
Moreover, a lot of L.A.’s bench players are offense-oriented.
Luke Kennard, for example, is a high-percentage three-point shooter but suffers from a bad defensive rating.
Similar stories — of 20+ minutes and bad defense — can be told of guys like Lou Williams and Marcus Morris.
L.A.’s Perimeter Defense
One may notice a trend from my summary above of the Clippers’ recent struggles on defense.
Opposing guards are having huge games against this L.A. defense. They are productive especially behind the arc.
I think that opposing three-point percentage can be a fluke. But what makes the Clippers’ perimeter defense certainly poor is the way in which they make life easy for opposing shooters.
As measured by percentage, the Clippers allow the third-highest frequency of open three-point shot attempts. “Open” is defined as the nearest defender being 4-6 feet away from the shooter.
From watching footage, it’s evident that teams do not need to achieve much ball movement in order to locate an open shooter against this Clipper defense.
For example, modest instances of dribble penetration will attract excessive help inside where Clipper players will leave their man behind the arc.
Taking Advantage
Plenty of King players can take advantage of what the Los Angeles defense will offer them.
One player to note especially right now is Buddy Hield.
Hield is a high-volume shooter who is enjoying a hot streak. In his past two games combined, he is 14-for-29 from three.
Tyrese Haliburton is also a factor given his recent ascendance. He is playing more minutes and still making over half of his three-point attempts.
Sacramento’s Defense
Like L.A.’s, Sacramento’s defense has recently been awful. In each of their past six games, the Kings have allowed at least 124 points.
These aren’t offensive juggernauts, either, that are torching the King defense.
Toronto, for example, ranks 16th in points per game despite having faced the Kings. The Raptors produced 144 points in Sacramento.
Sacramento’s Perimeter Defense
Sacramento allows the highest frequency of open three-point attempts.
This statistic is worrisome given the fact that L.A. is the NBA’s most efficient three-point shooting team. Collectively, the Clippers shoot 42.9 percent from deep.
In addition to Kennard, look out for Paul George, who is building off his career-best shooting performance last season. This season, George is knocking down over half of his three-point attempts.
Playing A Side
What the Kings love to do best on offense is something that they can do extremely well against the Clippers.
Sacramento is achieving the third-highest frequency of plays in transition.
This is where De’Aaron Fox shines. He’s very comfortable streaking down the court off an opponent's basket. He’ll also show good anticipation to steal a pass for a fast break opportunity. In accruing steals, he makes use of what is a great wing span for a guard.
Until now, the Clipper transition defense has hardly been tested. L.A. has faced one team that ranks top 10 in frequency of transition points. That team was the Lakers, which rank 10th.
Despite being poorly tested in this area, L.A. allows the second-worst PPP (points per possession) average against transition opportunities.
The Verdict
Given Sacramento’s consistent lack of defensive quality as measured, for example, by how many points they are regularly conceding per game, we can easily expect the Clippers to score 130 points.
For the “over” we would only need close to 100 points from the Kings, who average 114.8 points per game and have accrued at least 99 points in 11 of their 12 games thus far.
Against L.A.’s struggling defense, we should expect the Kings to score more than their average. Since they match up well, I expect the Kings to keep pace with if not defeat the Clippers.
Transition opportunities will fall in Sacramento’s favor, allowing for quick and easy baskets which help both the “over” and Sacramento’s opportunity to cover the spread.
If the Clippers were to win, they would have achieved their best win streak of the season, which would be unusual given the state of their defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Kings +6 at -110 & Over 228.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
