NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets
Friday, April 23, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
L.A. Clippers’ Rim Protection
In recent years, the Clippers have been criticized for lacking rim protection.
The idea was that center Serge Ibaka, a well-reputed rim-protector, should fill in this void.
It may seem worrisome, then, to note Ibaka’s absence.
But we have a large data sample now that says otherwise.
Since March 15, when Ibaka’s absence began, the Clippers are allowing the fifth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
They also do a great job of limiting shot attempts this close to the basket.
Center Ivica Zubac is one underrated rim-protector. He has two blocks in each of his past two games.
As measured by defensive rating, Nicolas Batum is defending even more solidly.
Houston Offense vs. Clipper Defense
It’s important to take note of L.A.’s solid defense in front of the basket because Houston attempts the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
The Rockets are filled with guys who like to flex their athleticism in order to drive to the basket.
While Zubac is most effective as a big, seven-footer who patrols the basket, the Clippers still have the versatility in their personnel to mix ball-screen coverages.
They aren’t married to playing drop coverage, as they sometimes seemed to be earlier in the season.
This ability to mix coverages is important against a Rocket offense that can run pick-and-pops with center Christian Wood, who can be a dangerous shooter from behind the arc, but won’t be one tonight.
Houston's Defense
One reason why the large spread for this game does not bother me is Houston’s defense.
The Rocket defense is so consistently porous, lately only allowing fewer than 125 points when Houston faces the abysmal Orlando Magic or when Houston is suffering 20-point blowout losses.
Before getting blown out by Miami and Utah and before facing Orlando, the Rockets had allowed 125 points or more in four consecutive games.
Perimeter defense has been one consistent issue for a Rocket defense that allowed teams that aren’t known for excelling behind the arc to explode from three.
On April 12, for example, the Suns made 25 three-pointers in a 126-point effort against Houston. In the following game, Indiana shot 15 of 36 from deep in a 132-point performance versus the Rockets. The list continues.
Clipper Offense vs. Rocket Defense
Offensively, the Clippers are built to perpetuate Houston’s defensive woes.
The Clippers make the fifth-most three-pointers per game.
They will thrive from behind the arc against a Rocket offense that, especially lately, is struggling to run teams off the three-point line.
In their past three games, the Rockets have allowed an average of 42 three-pointers. They also concede an above-average rate of open and wide open three-point attempts.
One specific Clipper player who will take advantage is Paul George, who is converting 45.7 percent of his three-point attempts in April.
George’s shooting will help Los Angeles cover the spread tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Friday, April 23, 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland
Trends
Note two trends that lend strong support to a play on Memphis.
One, the Grizzlies have covered six in a row as underdogs.
Two, Memphis is 11-3 ATS following a double-digit loss.
So the Grizzlies are in a great spot, betting-wise, tonight because they are underdogs and because they are coming off a big loss.
Memphis Offense vs. Portland Defense
One reason why I like Memphis’ offense tonight is that the Grizzlies increasingly love to score inside.
In April, they have increased the rate at which they attack the basket by owning so far in April the eighth-highest rate of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
One player who is reflective of what the Grizzlies ably accomplish in the half-court is point guard Ja Morant.
Morant is known for his sheer speed, which allows him to blow by defenders.
But an underrated aspect of Morant’s game is his ability to deceive defenders in order to create more space for his driving.
He’ll look his on-ball defender the other way or he’ll find some other way to induce his on-ball defender to move in the direction opposite to the direction in which Morant wants to drive.
Because Morant is so fast off the dribble, he doesn’t need to accomplish a lot of misdirection in order to create abundant space for himself en route to the basket.
He is supported furthermore by spacing from teammates that engages other defenders who could otherwise potentially help inside.
Morant and other Grizzlies who like to drive inside will thrive against Portland’s continually problematic rim protection.
Currently, Portland allows the eighth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Morant is also a characteristic weapon in transition with his speed.
With him, the Grizzlies like to rely on scoring in transition, which they can do very well against a Trail Blazer transition defense that allows the ninth-most points per game.
Portland Offense vs. Memphis Defense
One reason why Portland is struggling to win games is its disappointing lack of offense. The Trail Blazers have failed to exceed 107 points in three of their last four games.
Offensively, Portland is very reliant on three-pointers. It is one of two teams that attempt over 40 three-pointers per game.
But several things will keep Portland from doing well from behind the arc tonight.
One, Memphis rather allows three-pointers off of spot-up shooting. But Portland likes to attack with a ball-handler off the pick-and-roll, Memphis, though, has one of the better ball-screen defenses as measured by opposing PPP.
Two, the Grizzlies will start Brandon Clarke at center tonight. He is a versatile defender, not restricted to playing drop coverage like Memphis’ usual starting center, who is injured.
Clarke helps Memphis’ perimeter defense by being able to switch onto opposing players behind the arc.
Three, Portland’s poor form will hold itself back. The Trail Blazers are making considerably fewer threes per game despite facing some of the NBA’s softest perimeter defenses.
Parlay Verdict
Houston’s reliance on scoring inside is problematic against L.A.’s stout interior defense. Offensively, the Clippers will easily outshoot Houston.
Memphis is in a great betting spot, as evident in key trends. Morant will be its most important player on offense, driving inside and attacking in transition.
The Grizzly defense will punish Portland for being too reliant on attempting three-pointers.
Best Bet: Parlay Clippers -11.5 at -108 & Grizzlies +4 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets
Friday, April 23, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
L.A. Clippers’ Rim Protection
In recent years, the Clippers have been criticized for lacking rim protection.
The idea was that center Serge Ibaka, a well-reputed rim-protector, should fill in this void.
It may seem worrisome, then, to note Ibaka’s absence.
But we have a large data sample now that says otherwise.
Since March 15, when Ibaka’s absence began, the Clippers are allowing the fifth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
They also do a great job of limiting shot attempts this close to the basket.
Center Ivica Zubac is one underrated rim-protector. He has two blocks in each of his past two games.
As measured by defensive rating, Nicolas Batum is defending even more solidly.
Houston Offense vs. Clipper Defense
It’s important to take note of L.A.’s solid defense in front of the basket because Houston attempts the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
The Rockets are filled with guys who like to flex their athleticism in order to drive to the basket.
While Zubac is most effective as a big, seven-footer who patrols the basket, the Clippers still have the versatility in their personnel to mix ball-screen coverages.
They aren’t married to playing drop coverage, as they sometimes seemed to be earlier in the season.
This ability to mix coverages is important against a Rocket offense that can run pick-and-pops with center Christian Wood, who can be a dangerous shooter from behind the arc, but won’t be one tonight.
Houston's Defense
One reason why the large spread for this game does not bother me is Houston’s defense.
The Rocket defense is so consistently porous, lately only allowing fewer than 125 points when Houston faces the abysmal Orlando Magic or when Houston is suffering 20-point blowout losses.
Before getting blown out by Miami and Utah and before facing Orlando, the Rockets had allowed 125 points or more in four consecutive games.
Perimeter defense has been one consistent issue for a Rocket defense that allowed teams that aren’t known for excelling behind the arc to explode from three.
On April 12, for example, the Suns made 25 three-pointers in a 126-point effort against Houston. In the following game, Indiana shot 15 of 36 from deep in a 132-point performance versus the Rockets. The list continues.
Clipper Offense vs. Rocket Defense
Offensively, the Clippers are built to perpetuate Houston’s defensive woes.
The Clippers make the fifth-most three-pointers per game.
They will thrive from behind the arc against a Rocket offense that, especially lately, is struggling to run teams off the three-point line.
In their past three games, the Rockets have allowed an average of 42 three-pointers. They also concede an above-average rate of open and wide open three-point attempts.
One specific Clipper player who will take advantage is Paul George, who is converting 45.7 percent of his three-point attempts in April.
George’s shooting will help Los Angeles cover the spread tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Friday, April 23, 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland
Trends
Note two trends that lend strong support to a play on Memphis.
One, the Grizzlies have covered six in a row as underdogs.
Two, Memphis is 11-3 ATS following a double-digit loss.
So the Grizzlies are in a great spot, betting-wise, tonight because they are underdogs and because they are coming off a big loss.
Memphis Offense vs. Portland Defense
One reason why I like Memphis’ offense tonight is that the Grizzlies increasingly love to score inside.
In April, they have increased the rate at which they attack the basket by owning so far in April the eighth-highest rate of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
One player who is reflective of what the Grizzlies ably accomplish in the half-court is point guard Ja Morant.
Morant is known for his sheer speed, which allows him to blow by defenders.
But an underrated aspect of Morant’s game is his ability to deceive defenders in order to create more space for his driving.
He’ll look his on-ball defender the other way or he’ll find some other way to induce his on-ball defender to move in the direction opposite to the direction in which Morant wants to drive.
Because Morant is so fast off the dribble, he doesn’t need to accomplish a lot of misdirection in order to create abundant space for himself en route to the basket.
He is supported furthermore by spacing from teammates that engages other defenders who could otherwise potentially help inside.
Morant and other Grizzlies who like to drive inside will thrive against Portland’s continually problematic rim protection.
Currently, Portland allows the eighth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Morant is also a characteristic weapon in transition with his speed.
With him, the Grizzlies like to rely on scoring in transition, which they can do very well against a Trail Blazer transition defense that allows the ninth-most points per game.
Portland Offense vs. Memphis Defense
One reason why Portland is struggling to win games is its disappointing lack of offense. The Trail Blazers have failed to exceed 107 points in three of their last four games.
Offensively, Portland is very reliant on three-pointers. It is one of two teams that attempt over 40 three-pointers per game.
But several things will keep Portland from doing well from behind the arc tonight.
One, Memphis rather allows three-pointers off of spot-up shooting. But Portland likes to attack with a ball-handler off the pick-and-roll, Memphis, though, has one of the better ball-screen defenses as measured by opposing PPP.
Two, the Grizzlies will start Brandon Clarke at center tonight. He is a versatile defender, not restricted to playing drop coverage like Memphis’ usual starting center, who is injured.
Clarke helps Memphis’ perimeter defense by being able to switch onto opposing players behind the arc.
Three, Portland’s poor form will hold itself back. The Trail Blazers are making considerably fewer threes per game despite facing some of the NBA’s softest perimeter defenses.
Parlay Verdict
Houston’s reliance on scoring inside is problematic against L.A.’s stout interior defense. Offensively, the Clippers will easily outshoot Houston.
Memphis is in a great betting spot, as evident in key trends. Morant will be its most important player on offense, driving inside and attacking in transition.
The Grizzly defense will punish Portland for being too reliant on attempting three-pointers.
Best Bet: Parlay Clippers -11.5 at -108 & Grizzlies +4 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
