NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
Clipper Ball-Screen Defense
As measured by opposing PPP (points per possession), the Clippers are tied for having the second-worst defense against the ball-screen for the ball-handler.
L.A. likes to play in drop coverage, meaning the big man will pedal backwards towards the basket.
Clipper bigs are often too conservative in dropping back where they want to protect the rim.
But there isn’t much that they can do when Clipper guards repeatedly get stuck on screens and therefore leave the Clipper big man on an island.
It is hard to account for both the roller as he heads towards the rim and the ball-handler, who will have multiple options.
An additional option for the ball-handler will be to pass to the corner because the Clippers like to send help defenders inside in order to help out the big man as he tries to handle the opponent’s ball-screen action.
Boston Offense vs. Clipper Defense
It’s important to note that L.A. defends the ball-screen for the ball-handler poorly because the Celtics run a lot of this play type.
Boston can run a lot of this play type because many individual players are effective off of screens.
One leading Celtic scorer is Jayson Tatum. See him in action here:
He is the beneficiary of one screen that allows him to emerge isolated behind the arc. A second screen then frees him up to attack inside.
The Celtics will employ multiple screens on a given play in order to force multiple defenders into, in L.A.’s case, drop coverage where these different defenders will have to communicate well in order to account for what Boston is doing.
But as evidenced by their opposing PPP in this play type, the Clippers are not well organized or harmonized in their ball-screen coverage.
Look for other Celtics like Kemba Walker to benefit as he has proven himself to be a crafty finisher inside who also possesses an efficient mid-range game.
His improvement in three-point efficiency — which he accomplished multiple years ago — allows him to punish defenders who go under screens.
Clipper Offense vs. Celtic Defense
Like Boston, L.A. runs a relatively very high frequency of pick-and-roll actions for the ball-handler.
The difference between both defenses is that Boston ranks among the best (as measured by PPP) in handling this play type.
Walker is crucial for Boston’s defense. One place where he distinguishes himself is in his ability to constantly fight through screens.
Fighting through screens helps Celtic centers like Daniel Theis who are already relatively mobile in space.
Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Transition Offense
Under Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee’s offense is extremely well-known for its prowess in transition.
As soon as an opponent misses a shot, a Buck ball-handler will attack.
Potential shooters pressure an opposing interior defense by reaching the corners.
Defenders have to account for the ball-handler’s ability to exploit a lane inside to drive the ball.
Less space will be available inside if the defense focuses on deterring the ball-handler from driving.
But if that space inside is lacking, the ball-handler will locate a teammate behind the arc.
With superstar Giannis, Milwaukee is uniquely dangerous because he is so difficult to contain inside the paint.
With a full head of steam, Giannis pressures the interior defense by himself.
But again, there are always those shooters to kick out to.
Based on opposing PPP, Denver’s transition defense is second-worst.
Three-Pointers
Milwaukee ranks fifth in three-pointers made per game partly because of its ability to force defenses to collapse inside, whether this happens in transition or not in transition.
The Bucks can find success in the half-court, too, because the Nuggets are the second-worst team at limiting the opponent’s frequency of open three-point attempts.
Part of Denver’s issues are personnel-driven. Gary Harris, for example, is reputed to be a strong perimeter defender. But he remains injured.
Even with Harris, the athletic potential in Denver to account for opposing threats behind the arc proved insufficient.
But the Nuggets’ problems are often IQ-related: players lose track of their man or fail to follow the ball.
Denver’s Counter
Denver can shoot, too. The Nuggets rank ninth in three-pointers made per game.
They match up well with Milwaukee because they do not depend so much on scoring inside.
Schematically, the Bucks are great at guarding the basket because they play drop coverage and send a lot of help inside.
But like Denver, they allow a lot of open three-point attempts.
With multiple guys — like Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray -- converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts, Denver can exploit Milwaukee’s scheme.
Parlay Verdict
Boston will cover with its stronger ball-screen attack and ball-screen defense.
Milwaukee will excel in transition against Denver’s disorganized defense, which shows up in its difficulty guarding three-point shooters also in the half court.
With multiple shooters, Denver can match Milwaukee’s offensive prowess behind the arc by exploiting its focus on protecting the rim.
Best Bet: Parlay Celtics -7.5 at -120 & Nuggets/Bucks Over 236 at -110 at +250 odds with Bovada
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
Clipper Ball-Screen Defense
As measured by opposing PPP (points per possession), the Clippers are tied for having the second-worst defense against the ball-screen for the ball-handler.
L.A. likes to play in drop coverage, meaning the big man will pedal backwards towards the basket.
Clipper bigs are often too conservative in dropping back where they want to protect the rim.
But there isn’t much that they can do when Clipper guards repeatedly get stuck on screens and therefore leave the Clipper big man on an island.
It is hard to account for both the roller as he heads towards the rim and the ball-handler, who will have multiple options.
An additional option for the ball-handler will be to pass to the corner because the Clippers like to send help defenders inside in order to help out the big man as he tries to handle the opponent’s ball-screen action.
Boston Offense vs. Clipper Defense
It’s important to note that L.A. defends the ball-screen for the ball-handler poorly because the Celtics run a lot of this play type.
Boston can run a lot of this play type because many individual players are effective off of screens.
One leading Celtic scorer is Jayson Tatum. See him in action here:
He is the beneficiary of one screen that allows him to emerge isolated behind the arc. A second screen then frees him up to attack inside.
The Celtics will employ multiple screens on a given play in order to force multiple defenders into, in L.A.’s case, drop coverage where these different defenders will have to communicate well in order to account for what Boston is doing.
But as evidenced by their opposing PPP in this play type, the Clippers are not well organized or harmonized in their ball-screen coverage.
Look for other Celtics like Kemba Walker to benefit as he has proven himself to be a crafty finisher inside who also possesses an efficient mid-range game.
His improvement in three-point efficiency — which he accomplished multiple years ago — allows him to punish defenders who go under screens.
Clipper Offense vs. Celtic Defense
Like Boston, L.A. runs a relatively very high frequency of pick-and-roll actions for the ball-handler.
The difference between both defenses is that Boston ranks among the best (as measured by PPP) in handling this play type.
Walker is crucial for Boston’s defense. One place where he distinguishes himself is in his ability to constantly fight through screens.
Fighting through screens helps Celtic centers like Daniel Theis who are already relatively mobile in space.
Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Transition Offense
Under Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee’s offense is extremely well-known for its prowess in transition.
As soon as an opponent misses a shot, a Buck ball-handler will attack.
Potential shooters pressure an opposing interior defense by reaching the corners.
Defenders have to account for the ball-handler’s ability to exploit a lane inside to drive the ball.
Less space will be available inside if the defense focuses on deterring the ball-handler from driving.
But if that space inside is lacking, the ball-handler will locate a teammate behind the arc.
With superstar Giannis, Milwaukee is uniquely dangerous because he is so difficult to contain inside the paint.
With a full head of steam, Giannis pressures the interior defense by himself.
But again, there are always those shooters to kick out to.
Based on opposing PPP, Denver’s transition defense is second-worst.
Three-Pointers
Milwaukee ranks fifth in three-pointers made per game partly because of its ability to force defenses to collapse inside, whether this happens in transition or not in transition.
The Bucks can find success in the half-court, too, because the Nuggets are the second-worst team at limiting the opponent’s frequency of open three-point attempts.
Part of Denver’s issues are personnel-driven. Gary Harris, for example, is reputed to be a strong perimeter defender. But he remains injured.
Even with Harris, the athletic potential in Denver to account for opposing threats behind the arc proved insufficient.
But the Nuggets’ problems are often IQ-related: players lose track of their man or fail to follow the ball.
Denver’s Counter
Denver can shoot, too. The Nuggets rank ninth in three-pointers made per game.
They match up well with Milwaukee because they do not depend so much on scoring inside.
Schematically, the Bucks are great at guarding the basket because they play drop coverage and send a lot of help inside.
But like Denver, they allow a lot of open three-point attempts.
With multiple guys — like Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray -- converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts, Denver can exploit Milwaukee’s scheme.
Parlay Verdict
Boston will cover with its stronger ball-screen attack and ball-screen defense.
Milwaukee will excel in transition against Denver’s disorganized defense, which shows up in its difficulty guarding three-point shooters also in the half court.
With multiple shooters, Denver can match Milwaukee’s offensive prowess behind the arc by exploiting its focus on protecting the rim.
Best Bet: Parlay Celtics -7.5 at -120 & Nuggets/Bucks Over 236 at -110 at +250 odds with Bovada
