Houston, We Have A Problem... in Cleveland
Cleveland was in let-down mode when they lost big to Houston after sweeping its former World Series nemesis Cubs. Look for Cleveland to bounce back in game two of its four-game set with Houston.
Houston Astros (33-18) at Cleveland Indians (24-24)
MLB Pick: Cleveland 1H RL
Both starting pitchers faced off May 19. Kluber-led Cleveland easily won the 1H against Keuchel-led Houston and bettors should expect the same tonight.
Dallas Keuchel (3-6, 3.43 ERA) is a worse version of himself from last year, with an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) .46 lower. His main issues are with pitch usage and pitch quality. This season, he’s utilizing his favorite pitch, the sinker, with seven percent lower frequency. Instead, he relies on his slider, particularly when the opposing batter is ahead of the count. Opponents are achieving a nearly .400 higher slugging percentage against this pitch, which he is nonetheless relying on more heavily when he is more vulnerable, behind in the count. To be fair, he’s relying more on this pitch with two strikes because opponents batted .095 against it last year in this situation. But this season, their BA against his slider is up to .321 with two strikes. Keuchel pinpointed the lowest left corner of the strike zone with 30% higher frequency. With two strikes, opponents couldn’t afford to lay off this pitch which was at least so close to the strike zone and yet so hard to make contact with because of its location. This season, he is leaving it in more middle, hittable parts of the zone. The Indians slugged 1.400 against Keuchel’s deteriorated slider.
Keuchel matches up poorly with Cleveland. His FIP on May 19 was nearly identical to what it was when he faced them last April, when he was better than he currently is. Overall, the Indians rank fourth in slugging against lefties and their slugging percentage against them is 20% higher at home. Since 2017, they are slugging .524 against the sinker, Keuchel’s favorite pitch, thrown by lefties at home. The metric SLG-xSLG shows them even to be underachieving in these hitting categories, so they still carry solid upside. Career-wise against Keuchel, Jose Ramirez is 4-for-9 with two doubles and Yan Gomes is 5-for-14 with two doubles.
Corey Kluber (7-2, 2.36 ERA) is 9-0 in his last 11 starts after achieving double-digit strikeouts in his previous start. Conversely, his last three losses came after achieving single-digit strikeouts in his previous start. It may be discomfiting to bet on the same result, but consider, for instance, that he’s faced Seattle three times since last September with an FIP between 3.00 and 3.50 each time. In sum, Kluber is a streaky pitcher who is consistent against lineups that he matches up well against.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Kluber suffered a worrisome stretch from April 22 to May 8 in which he allowed eight home runs. He more frequently left his pitches in the heart of the plate and was especially facing teams that thrive in making pitchers pay for this mistake. Two teams that he faced during that stretch rank in the top five in ISO (isolated power; calculates frequency of extra base hits) against pitches left in the middle of the strike zone. Conversely, his last two opponents, Kansas City and Houston, rank in the bottom six in the category and he allowed one total homer in those two games.
Since that tough stretch, his key has been to reduce the opposing slugging percentage against his sinker by .358 even though he’s relied on it more. He locates it better and has improved its spin rate and vertical movement to produce stronger strike, whiff and ground ball percentages. Opponents are producing a 5.5 mph lower exit velocity against it. Kluber’s improving sinker is his most frequent pitch and Houston ranks in the bottom 10 in BA against this pitch.
The last match-up between Keuchel and Kluber was not anomalous, but revealing of deeper match-up disparities which give Cleveland the 1H edge.
Cleveland was in let-down mode when they lost big to Houston after sweeping its former World Series nemesis Cubs. Look for Cleveland to bounce back in game two of its four-game set with Houston.
Houston Astros (33-18) at Cleveland Indians (24-24)
MLB Pick: Cleveland 1H RL
Both starting pitchers faced off May 19. Kluber-led Cleveland easily won the 1H against Keuchel-led Houston and bettors should expect the same tonight.
Dallas Keuchel (3-6, 3.43 ERA) is a worse version of himself from last year, with an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) .46 lower. His main issues are with pitch usage and pitch quality. This season, he’s utilizing his favorite pitch, the sinker, with seven percent lower frequency. Instead, he relies on his slider, particularly when the opposing batter is ahead of the count. Opponents are achieving a nearly .400 higher slugging percentage against this pitch, which he is nonetheless relying on more heavily when he is more vulnerable, behind in the count. To be fair, he’s relying more on this pitch with two strikes because opponents batted .095 against it last year in this situation. But this season, their BA against his slider is up to .321 with two strikes. Keuchel pinpointed the lowest left corner of the strike zone with 30% higher frequency. With two strikes, opponents couldn’t afford to lay off this pitch which was at least so close to the strike zone and yet so hard to make contact with because of its location. This season, he is leaving it in more middle, hittable parts of the zone. The Indians slugged 1.400 against Keuchel’s deteriorated slider.
Keuchel matches up poorly with Cleveland. His FIP on May 19 was nearly identical to what it was when he faced them last April, when he was better than he currently is. Overall, the Indians rank fourth in slugging against lefties and their slugging percentage against them is 20% higher at home. Since 2017, they are slugging .524 against the sinker, Keuchel’s favorite pitch, thrown by lefties at home. The metric SLG-xSLG shows them even to be underachieving in these hitting categories, so they still carry solid upside. Career-wise against Keuchel, Jose Ramirez is 4-for-9 with two doubles and Yan Gomes is 5-for-14 with two doubles.
Corey Kluber (7-2, 2.36 ERA) is 9-0 in his last 11 starts after achieving double-digit strikeouts in his previous start. Conversely, his last three losses came after achieving single-digit strikeouts in his previous start. It may be discomfiting to bet on the same result, but consider, for instance, that he’s faced Seattle three times since last September with an FIP between 3.00 and 3.50 each time. In sum, Kluber is a streaky pitcher who is consistent against lineups that he matches up well against.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Kluber suffered a worrisome stretch from April 22 to May 8 in which he allowed eight home runs. He more frequently left his pitches in the heart of the plate and was especially facing teams that thrive in making pitchers pay for this mistake. Two teams that he faced during that stretch rank in the top five in ISO (isolated power; calculates frequency of extra base hits) against pitches left in the middle of the strike zone. Conversely, his last two opponents, Kansas City and Houston, rank in the bottom six in the category and he allowed one total homer in those two games.
Since that tough stretch, his key has been to reduce the opposing slugging percentage against his sinker by .358 even though he’s relied on it more. He locates it better and has improved its spin rate and vertical movement to produce stronger strike, whiff and ground ball percentages. Opponents are producing a 5.5 mph lower exit velocity against it. Kluber’s improving sinker is his most frequent pitch and Houston ranks in the bottom 10 in BA against this pitch.
The last match-up between Keuchel and Kluber was not anomalous, but revealing of deeper match-up disparities which give Cleveland the 1H edge.
