NFL Week 1 Parlay: Baker Mayfield Faces His Old Team
Cleveland Browns vs. Carolina Panthers
Thursday, September 8, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium
Cleveland's Rush Attack
It is no secret that Cleveland primarily wants to run the ball.
Having two starter-caliber running backs in star Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt plus offensive linemen who specialize in run-blocking conduces to this endeavor.
Last year, Chubb amassed 1,259 rushing yards on 5.5 YPC while Hunt added 4.9 YPC.
They were helped by an offensive line that ranked sixth in yards before contact while featuring two Pro Bowlers in Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller.
Right tackle Jack Conklin, always known for his superb run-blocking since his Titan days, will help maintain Cleveland's strong run-blocking.
Panther Run Defense
Last year, the Panthers ranked 18thin opposing rush yards per defense.
While this isn't terrible, they also lost a lot during the offseason.
DaQuan Jones, Morgan Fox -- although he's more of a pass rusher -- and Jermaine Carter were all valuable to what the Panther run defense was able to accomplish.
These losses compound the worry about the front seven's ability to limit Chubb and Hunt, which, given last year's numbers, surely would have persisted even if the Panthers had not suffered significant roster turnover.
Panther Pass Rush
It is imperative for any pass-rushing unit to employ multiple strong pass rushers because otherwise the opposing offensive line will focus on eliminating the one threat.
Many strong pass rushers have shown to be limited severely by the absence of some other good pass rusher who can take attention off of him.
The Panthers' Brian Burns faces this problem.
While Carolina ranked above-average in sack rate last season, despite its depreciated ability to achieve sacks in the latest segment of its season, the Panthers lost key personnel over the offseason.
Perhaps most notably, Haason Reddick contributed 11 sacks but is now an Eagle.
Jacoby Brissett
Brissett will often enjoy a clean pocket thanks to the regression in Carolina's pass-rushing quality.
Last year, crucially, he ranked fourth in clean pocket accuracy rating.
The frequency with which he throws from a clean pocket exposes Carolina's defense more often to the threat that, with his characteristically strong arm, he creates on all parts of the field.
Brown Wide Receivers vs. Panther Cornerbacks
Expect, therefore, many accurate passes from Brissett to his superior pass-catching crew.
Most notably, Amari Cooper will have a decisively positive game.
Panther cornerbacks do not possess sufficient quality to limit Cooper.
Among other things, Cooper is a viable deep threat who ably secures a cushion for himself but, as the metrics likewise show, ably achieves contested catches.
When playing Carolina last year, Cooper scored a 35-yard touchdown off disappointing former first-round pick CJ Henderson in their only encounter in last season's game.
His prospects when Henderson's teammate, Donte Jackson, tries to cover him look equally promising given Jackson's struggle with limiting the catch/target efficiency of opposing top wide receivers, such as Houston's Brandin Cooks.
More Than Just Cooper
Besides Cooper, David Bell, a third-round selection in this year's NFL Draft, can be a deep threat, although he is mostly praised for his combination of good hands and effective route-running.
More impactfully, Donovan Peoples-Jones seems primed to have a breakout season.
When he had to occupy the top wide receiver position on his team last season, he responded by procuring career-best numbers for himself.
His physical skill set and athleticism have always been insane.
It is just a matter of polishing technique, and he's evidently been improving a lot in this respect.
Cleveland's Pass Rush
One reason why I think Cleveland has the advantage in its passing game is the prominence of its pass-rushing duo.
Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney combined for 25 sacks last season.
By forcing opposing offenses to account for two star pass-rushers, Cleveland outdoes Carolina with its heavy reliance on Burns.
Panther Pass Protection
The Browns' pass-rushing duo creates an advantage in the passing game by hurting Panther quarterback Baker Mayfield's chances of succeeding.
Mayfield is notoriously bad under pressure.
Last year, he ranked 31st in pressured completion percentage.
His pass protection unit will fail to help him avoid pressure.
Panther pass protection ranked 26th last year as measured by the rate at which it allowed sacks.
Viewed holistically, in fact, Carolina's offensive line was one of the NFL's worst.
Its plethora of additions via free agency and the draft will take time to affect any meaningful change in the success rate of its pass protection.
Coverage
Though known for his zone coverage, particularly his preference for Cover 3, Brown defensive coordinator Joe Woods has grown in flexibility.
Taking advantage of the skill set of his cornerbacks, who are comfortable in man coverage, Woods employed more man coverage as last season progressed.
His increased confidence with man was most famous when Brown cornerbacks limited Bengal star Ja'Marr Chase's yardage output and general productivity, repeatedly utilizing their physical presence at the line of scrimmage to disrupt him and make him uncomfortable after the snap.
Because Mayfield struggles mightily against man coverage -- last year, he ranked 26thin passer rating against man -- Cleveland's ability to play man will pay off.
Parlay Verdict
Both teams' reliance on running backs will ensure a heavy amount of clock-draining when both teams are on offense.
A rainy day -- rain is forecasted for Sunday -- will further ground both offenses (pun intended).
But Cleveland has an edge with its pass rush, which will help its quarterback outperform Carolina's while its defense, which ranked above-average against the run last year, won't need to do too much to ensure that Cleveland's deep rush attack outperforms Carolina's.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns +1 at +100 & Under 42 at -110 at +282 odds with BetOnline
Cleveland Browns vs. Carolina Panthers
Thursday, September 8, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium
Cleveland's Rush Attack
It is no secret that Cleveland primarily wants to run the ball.
Having two starter-caliber running backs in star Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt plus offensive linemen who specialize in run-blocking conduces to this endeavor.
Last year, Chubb amassed 1,259 rushing yards on 5.5 YPC while Hunt added 4.9 YPC.
They were helped by an offensive line that ranked sixth in yards before contact while featuring two Pro Bowlers in Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller.
Right tackle Jack Conklin, always known for his superb run-blocking since his Titan days, will help maintain Cleveland's strong run-blocking.
Panther Run Defense
Last year, the Panthers ranked 18thin opposing rush yards per defense.
While this isn't terrible, they also lost a lot during the offseason.
DaQuan Jones, Morgan Fox -- although he's more of a pass rusher -- and Jermaine Carter were all valuable to what the Panther run defense was able to accomplish.
These losses compound the worry about the front seven's ability to limit Chubb and Hunt, which, given last year's numbers, surely would have persisted even if the Panthers had not suffered significant roster turnover.
Panther Pass Rush
It is imperative for any pass-rushing unit to employ multiple strong pass rushers because otherwise the opposing offensive line will focus on eliminating the one threat.
Many strong pass rushers have shown to be limited severely by the absence of some other good pass rusher who can take attention off of him.
The Panthers' Brian Burns faces this problem.
While Carolina ranked above-average in sack rate last season, despite its depreciated ability to achieve sacks in the latest segment of its season, the Panthers lost key personnel over the offseason.
Perhaps most notably, Haason Reddick contributed 11 sacks but is now an Eagle.
Jacoby Brissett
Brissett will often enjoy a clean pocket thanks to the regression in Carolina's pass-rushing quality.
Last year, crucially, he ranked fourth in clean pocket accuracy rating.
The frequency with which he throws from a clean pocket exposes Carolina's defense more often to the threat that, with his characteristically strong arm, he creates on all parts of the field.
Brown Wide Receivers vs. Panther Cornerbacks
Expect, therefore, many accurate passes from Brissett to his superior pass-catching crew.
Most notably, Amari Cooper will have a decisively positive game.
Panther cornerbacks do not possess sufficient quality to limit Cooper.
Among other things, Cooper is a viable deep threat who ably secures a cushion for himself but, as the metrics likewise show, ably achieves contested catches.
When playing Carolina last year, Cooper scored a 35-yard touchdown off disappointing former first-round pick CJ Henderson in their only encounter in last season's game.
His prospects when Henderson's teammate, Donte Jackson, tries to cover him look equally promising given Jackson's struggle with limiting the catch/target efficiency of opposing top wide receivers, such as Houston's Brandin Cooks.
More Than Just Cooper
Besides Cooper, David Bell, a third-round selection in this year's NFL Draft, can be a deep threat, although he is mostly praised for his combination of good hands and effective route-running.
More impactfully, Donovan Peoples-Jones seems primed to have a breakout season.
When he had to occupy the top wide receiver position on his team last season, he responded by procuring career-best numbers for himself.
His physical skill set and athleticism have always been insane.
It is just a matter of polishing technique, and he's evidently been improving a lot in this respect.
Cleveland's Pass Rush
One reason why I think Cleveland has the advantage in its passing game is the prominence of its pass-rushing duo.
Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney combined for 25 sacks last season.
By forcing opposing offenses to account for two star pass-rushers, Cleveland outdoes Carolina with its heavy reliance on Burns.
Panther Pass Protection
The Browns' pass-rushing duo creates an advantage in the passing game by hurting Panther quarterback Baker Mayfield's chances of succeeding.
Mayfield is notoriously bad under pressure.
Last year, he ranked 31st in pressured completion percentage.
His pass protection unit will fail to help him avoid pressure.
Panther pass protection ranked 26th last year as measured by the rate at which it allowed sacks.
Viewed holistically, in fact, Carolina's offensive line was one of the NFL's worst.
Its plethora of additions via free agency and the draft will take time to affect any meaningful change in the success rate of its pass protection.
Coverage
Though known for his zone coverage, particularly his preference for Cover 3, Brown defensive coordinator Joe Woods has grown in flexibility.
Taking advantage of the skill set of his cornerbacks, who are comfortable in man coverage, Woods employed more man coverage as last season progressed.
His increased confidence with man was most famous when Brown cornerbacks limited Bengal star Ja'Marr Chase's yardage output and general productivity, repeatedly utilizing their physical presence at the line of scrimmage to disrupt him and make him uncomfortable after the snap.
Because Mayfield struggles mightily against man coverage -- last year, he ranked 26thin passer rating against man -- Cleveland's ability to play man will pay off.
Parlay Verdict
Both teams' reliance on running backs will ensure a heavy amount of clock-draining when both teams are on offense.
A rainy day -- rain is forecasted for Sunday -- will further ground both offenses (pun intended).
But Cleveland has an edge with its pass rush, which will help its quarterback outperform Carolina's while its defense, which ranked above-average against the run last year, won't need to do too much to ensure that Cleveland's deep rush attack outperforms Carolina's.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns +1 at +100 & Under 42 at -110 at +282 odds with BetOnline
