broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
In 2007, the Browns were obviously one of the league's surprises. A big topic of discussion this year on many of these boards is will they continue to have value, or will they prove a one year wonder and fall on their face as a team and as a valuable ats team.
The purpose of my thread is to offer some opinions on the questions that face the Browns this year, as well as to offer some insight in camps and local news that others may not have the same type of access to.
I'm a die-hard Browns fan, but I do not think at all that it wavers my betting opinions, in fact I believe I do much better betting on or against my hometeams. I placed winning wagers against the Buckeyes when they played Illinois, against the Browns last year when they played the Bengals in a must-win scenario to go to the playoffs, and bet against my Cavs as road favs several times for a few examples. I have had a significantly higher winning percentage betting my home teams, whether it is a play, a fade, or a total. So I will attempt to be a benefit in this capacity.
First, some of the question marks:
Will Derrick Anderson regress as there becomes more film on him...was he just a one hit wonder, and will he continue to make mistakes in big games?
I can see how people would think this due to his poor performance down the stretch. Here's why I do not think so. I think the hype around Quinn really hurts the perception of DA. Any other FIRST YEAR starter with a pro-bowl invite and winning 10 out of 15 starts without even getting first qb reps in camp/pre-season would be praised like crazy...
Here are some facts/stats on DA that makes me optimistic that he can have another very solid year, and although the stats might not be as impressive from this year to last year, I believe he will be a better qb. These tendencies were very easy to pick up on, and when digging I found a great article in the Plain Dealer with the right stats that described the point I'm about to make perfectly..
DA at home was unbelievable. 14 tds, 6 INTs and a 7-0 record. 93.5 rating. On the road was an entirely different story, 15 tds, 13 INTs and a 3-5 record. 73.9 qb rating. Obviously a huge disparity. This obviously has a lot to do with maturity, being a first year starter (with a first year OC btw) being on the road is obviously more difficult, and the pressure was felt by the end of the year as the playoffs became a possibility and after his struggles were highlighted (idiotic Browns fans calling for Quinn). I mentioned the OC and I think Chud is also partially to blame for being overly-aggressive. Being aggressive on the road is a good thing though most of the time, especially when you have a young qb that needs to get off to a good start, and a pretty weak defense...which the Browns were definitely guilty of. So I think a lot of the gameplan on the road changed as they tried desperately to get that early lead, which may or may not have been the best move...
Speaking of agressiveness, let's take a look at the down/distance breakdowns of DA. On first down, usually the easiest down to throw on, DA threw 12 INTs in 206 passes and 13 tds. In 312 second and third down throws, DA threw 16 tds and only 7 INTs. Wow. In the 1st Quarter: 3 tds, 7 INTs and a dreadful 56.4 qb rating. Second half: 13 tds, 4 INTs, and a 91.0 rating. There are also similar disparities in cold weather games, but i'm not going there because people could simply argue that he was less effective down the stretch, and most qbs have significantly better indoor/warm weather numbers anways. Less aggressive play-calling, particularly on the road, as well as YOUTH and inexperience always wanting the big play both attributed to these disparities imo. These trends I would sure as hell hope would easily be picked up on and corrected. DA needs to throw the ball away and eat a down rather than gamble and throw away a possession. And Chud (who I'm a huge fan of btw) was a first year OC...well he needs to run the fucking ball on first down and trust the defense and o-line a little more. This will obviously put less pressure on the defense and help with ball control, which we'll get into later. Fact is, DA had a great year last year overall with all things considered. He will have another weapon in Stallworth, and if a third receiver steps up or JJ gets healthy later on in the season, Winslow will be that much more of a weapon. As it lays now, Heiden is a very underrated tight end that I expect to be more involved in the offense due to Winslow playin the 3rd receiver in a lot of sets. If his weapons stay healthy, I believe DA will be even better this year. His problem is that he gambles too much, but you have to take some risk to make big plays. He has too much faith in his extremely strong arm at times..his best year in college was similar...29 tds and 17 INTs. You have a very smart OC that has to pick up on this and help him out a little. In camp, he has thrown the ball away a lot more and he seems to get it. This is the biggest question mark, and I personally think he will be fine. And he has a yet-to-be proven adequate back-up behind him if he doesn't stay healthy. After the year DA had, I can't believe why anyone would want to see Quinn right now. The only way we see Quinn would be the result of something negative...a pro-bowl qb getting injured or a qb regressing significantly resulting in the Browns losing games...neither of which would be a positive thing for the Browns. So, being a Browns fan, I hope we don't see Quinn except as a clean-up specialist. No qb has more pressure on him this year, and it's not close...that is my real concern. The sexier Quinn behind him that fans love and imo the most hyped up year the Browns have EVER had...even in the late 80s there was less pressure/hype because the Browns were good for a long time. For the last 15-20 years there's been very few good Browns memories, so the anticipation is unreal. It will be interesting to see how he reacts, but I think it will help that he plays two good teams with very flawed secondaries at home in the first two weeks. If he splits those two games, which I think he will, and he limits his mistakes in them...I think that will go a long way in taking some of the pressure off...
will be back with some thoughts on the second most important question the browns face...secondary depth
The purpose of my thread is to offer some opinions on the questions that face the Browns this year, as well as to offer some insight in camps and local news that others may not have the same type of access to.
I'm a die-hard Browns fan, but I do not think at all that it wavers my betting opinions, in fact I believe I do much better betting on or against my hometeams. I placed winning wagers against the Buckeyes when they played Illinois, against the Browns last year when they played the Bengals in a must-win scenario to go to the playoffs, and bet against my Cavs as road favs several times for a few examples. I have had a significantly higher winning percentage betting my home teams, whether it is a play, a fade, or a total. So I will attempt to be a benefit in this capacity.
First, some of the question marks:
Will Derrick Anderson regress as there becomes more film on him...was he just a one hit wonder, and will he continue to make mistakes in big games?
I can see how people would think this due to his poor performance down the stretch. Here's why I do not think so. I think the hype around Quinn really hurts the perception of DA. Any other FIRST YEAR starter with a pro-bowl invite and winning 10 out of 15 starts without even getting first qb reps in camp/pre-season would be praised like crazy...
Here are some facts/stats on DA that makes me optimistic that he can have another very solid year, and although the stats might not be as impressive from this year to last year, I believe he will be a better qb. These tendencies were very easy to pick up on, and when digging I found a great article in the Plain Dealer with the right stats that described the point I'm about to make perfectly..
DA at home was unbelievable. 14 tds, 6 INTs and a 7-0 record. 93.5 rating. On the road was an entirely different story, 15 tds, 13 INTs and a 3-5 record. 73.9 qb rating. Obviously a huge disparity. This obviously has a lot to do with maturity, being a first year starter (with a first year OC btw) being on the road is obviously more difficult, and the pressure was felt by the end of the year as the playoffs became a possibility and after his struggles were highlighted (idiotic Browns fans calling for Quinn). I mentioned the OC and I think Chud is also partially to blame for being overly-aggressive. Being aggressive on the road is a good thing though most of the time, especially when you have a young qb that needs to get off to a good start, and a pretty weak defense...which the Browns were definitely guilty of. So I think a lot of the gameplan on the road changed as they tried desperately to get that early lead, which may or may not have been the best move...
Speaking of agressiveness, let's take a look at the down/distance breakdowns of DA. On first down, usually the easiest down to throw on, DA threw 12 INTs in 206 passes and 13 tds. In 312 second and third down throws, DA threw 16 tds and only 7 INTs. Wow. In the 1st Quarter: 3 tds, 7 INTs and a dreadful 56.4 qb rating. Second half: 13 tds, 4 INTs, and a 91.0 rating. There are also similar disparities in cold weather games, but i'm not going there because people could simply argue that he was less effective down the stretch, and most qbs have significantly better indoor/warm weather numbers anways. Less aggressive play-calling, particularly on the road, as well as YOUTH and inexperience always wanting the big play both attributed to these disparities imo. These trends I would sure as hell hope would easily be picked up on and corrected. DA needs to throw the ball away and eat a down rather than gamble and throw away a possession. And Chud (who I'm a huge fan of btw) was a first year OC...well he needs to run the fucking ball on first down and trust the defense and o-line a little more. This will obviously put less pressure on the defense and help with ball control, which we'll get into later. Fact is, DA had a great year last year overall with all things considered. He will have another weapon in Stallworth, and if a third receiver steps up or JJ gets healthy later on in the season, Winslow will be that much more of a weapon. As it lays now, Heiden is a very underrated tight end that I expect to be more involved in the offense due to Winslow playin the 3rd receiver in a lot of sets. If his weapons stay healthy, I believe DA will be even better this year. His problem is that he gambles too much, but you have to take some risk to make big plays. He has too much faith in his extremely strong arm at times..his best year in college was similar...29 tds and 17 INTs. You have a very smart OC that has to pick up on this and help him out a little. In camp, he has thrown the ball away a lot more and he seems to get it. This is the biggest question mark, and I personally think he will be fine. And he has a yet-to-be proven adequate back-up behind him if he doesn't stay healthy. After the year DA had, I can't believe why anyone would want to see Quinn right now. The only way we see Quinn would be the result of something negative...a pro-bowl qb getting injured or a qb regressing significantly resulting in the Browns losing games...neither of which would be a positive thing for the Browns. So, being a Browns fan, I hope we don't see Quinn except as a clean-up specialist. No qb has more pressure on him this year, and it's not close...that is my real concern. The sexier Quinn behind him that fans love and imo the most hyped up year the Browns have EVER had...even in the late 80s there was less pressure/hype because the Browns were good for a long time. For the last 15-20 years there's been very few good Browns memories, so the anticipation is unreal. It will be interesting to see how he reacts, but I think it will help that he plays two good teams with very flawed secondaries at home in the first two weeks. If he splits those two games, which I think he will, and he limits his mistakes in them...I think that will go a long way in taking some of the pressure off...
will be back with some thoughts on the second most important question the browns face...secondary depth
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