broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
Hope everyone has been well.
A good write up that I saw on the Browns win total on here. I tend to agree with the analysis but believe the total is set on the dot (and I hate season win totals personally anyways...tied up money for too long). The missing piece in my mind was schedule. Brutal schedule in my opinion. Before they gel, they play their divisional opponents (and Indy on the road) in the first 4 weeks. Ouch. The schedule softens up for a couple of weeks but then they play 6 of 9 on the road (including London as a road game even though it's "home"--obviously makes the stretch more difficult), with 2 of the 3 home games being GB and Balt. Just a rough schedule for a team trying to add 4-5 wins.
The front office has had some head scratching moments for sure. The Kessler pick and qb history in general aside. I still don't understand how so many front offices (Esp multiple front offices for the Browns) in the NFL fail to properly evaluate receiving talent. I think I understand the moneyball play--they saw a huge weakness and threw several draft picks at it to see if one or two would work...that hasn't been the answer yet. Hope it changes though...Coleman is showing hope, Britt is solid and I believe will replace TP just fine (without the dumb plays), but 3rd receiver is a complete unknown and none of the guys they have drafted seem to be up to the task--including Njoku at TE who had an subpar camp then got hurt after having an unimpressive drop rate in college. I was unimpressed with the pick and he hasn't showed anything (watch now he'll go on to be a pro bowler haha). I hope he can turn into something as he's got the speed and size. Crowell had a "breakout" year in terms of ypc but I still think he's highly overrated. Duke and Dayes should be in line for more carries (they've actually been spreading Duke out to 3rd wideout as he had a remarkable 10 yards per target last year) and they should be looking to fortify that position next year. Skills position on the Browns still very much worry me. Worst, or at the very least the most unproven, in the NFL.
That said---I'm very pleased with the front office in nearly every other area. I believe you build a team with a lot of draft pics and strengthening the lines (Ted Thompson blueprint) and that's what they've done. Their o-line pickups were the best of the offseason and no team got better on the offensive line in the offseason than the Browns. This is a bad team with a top 5 offensive line and I don't think the average joe will realize that. So it should allow more flexibility to what they do at qb (at least they won't have to worry about cycling 5/6 qbs in because they're getting killed---huge problem last year) and more importantly be more effective running the football.
Strategy on offense: It will be to shorten the game and run the football a lot. Hue didn't run nearly enough last year and he knows that...almost every camp press conference mentioned what will be a dedication to the run... as he has a very solid line to run behind now (and 3 capable backs + possibly Peppers). Duke will catch more balls out of the backfield as well. This isn't going to be a downfield offense no matter who is at qb.
Originally I thought Greg Williams was overhyped and overrated. Not sure I've completely changed my opinion but I do think he's the right D.C. For this team right now. He brings leadership, experience, and an attack mode that these younger guys like and need.
And boy did he walk into a good situation. This front 7 can be dangerous and very good......
Myles looks incredible...I love the pick so much. No way this guy is Courtney Brown 2.0.
Desmond Bryant is back and looks great ...people won't remember he was the Browns' top dlineman before he got hurt.
Shelton has improved a TON and I think Ogbah will show improvement as well because of the strength of the other guys...he's shown flashes.
Good young depth behind them too in Nassib, Coley, Meder, Orchard...they'll rotate in and keep Guys fresh.
I haven't been this excited about the Browns defensive line in over 20 years.
Linebackers:
Who would have thought who I consider to be a top 5 backer in Jamie Collins to resign with the Browns. That's the Greg Williams effect.
Kirksey is the 3 or 4 most underrated backers in the league. Just look at statistically what he's done.
I'm projecting Schobert to win the Mike job. Better position fit for him--he's worked hard in the offseason to be a better cover backer (lost 15 lbs--got quicker) and has had a better camp than Carder.
This will be a very very good front 7 imo...and they have scheme fit.
Secondary is a little unproven and mostly dependent on how well Haden is going to be able to bounce back. If he was a race horse you would have considered putting him down last year...he said he hadn't been healthy in a few years and finally feels 100%. We'll see. Not a great camp for the limited time he was out there. Definitely the wildcard.
The playing time of others due to injury last year has led to depth improvement (guys like Kindred and Boddy-Calhoun have looked much improved) and I know Peppers will make an immediate impact (I wanted Hooker badly and go bucks). Guy looks like an absolute beast who will thrive in this scheme and offer playmaking value on special teams. Last year the Browns had the worst secondary in the league by far. With Haden healthy, Taylor on the other end, much better safeties in the rotation (Calvin Pryor was a good pick-up too even though he's been buried in the depth chart so far) they're much more capable at every position and as a unit...better scheme fits for GW too.
Lastly...Hue was a first half coach last year. He'll be able execute how he wants, but he's had trouble with adjustments (a lot of that is likely talent related) and they haven't won second halves. What he wants to do is run the ball and play defense. That's more likely to be controlled in the first half based on past experience.
So, I will be playing the Browns 1st half Under all 20 games (nflx included), and believe it will go 13-7 or better. (Will probably play Browns game unders as well).
1-0 so far...
A good write up that I saw on the Browns win total on here. I tend to agree with the analysis but believe the total is set on the dot (and I hate season win totals personally anyways...tied up money for too long). The missing piece in my mind was schedule. Brutal schedule in my opinion. Before they gel, they play their divisional opponents (and Indy on the road) in the first 4 weeks. Ouch. The schedule softens up for a couple of weeks but then they play 6 of 9 on the road (including London as a road game even though it's "home"--obviously makes the stretch more difficult), with 2 of the 3 home games being GB and Balt. Just a rough schedule for a team trying to add 4-5 wins.
The front office has had some head scratching moments for sure. The Kessler pick and qb history in general aside. I still don't understand how so many front offices (Esp multiple front offices for the Browns) in the NFL fail to properly evaluate receiving talent. I think I understand the moneyball play--they saw a huge weakness and threw several draft picks at it to see if one or two would work...that hasn't been the answer yet. Hope it changes though...Coleman is showing hope, Britt is solid and I believe will replace TP just fine (without the dumb plays), but 3rd receiver is a complete unknown and none of the guys they have drafted seem to be up to the task--including Njoku at TE who had an subpar camp then got hurt after having an unimpressive drop rate in college. I was unimpressed with the pick and he hasn't showed anything (watch now he'll go on to be a pro bowler haha). I hope he can turn into something as he's got the speed and size. Crowell had a "breakout" year in terms of ypc but I still think he's highly overrated. Duke and Dayes should be in line for more carries (they've actually been spreading Duke out to 3rd wideout as he had a remarkable 10 yards per target last year) and they should be looking to fortify that position next year. Skills position on the Browns still very much worry me. Worst, or at the very least the most unproven, in the NFL.
That said---I'm very pleased with the front office in nearly every other area. I believe you build a team with a lot of draft pics and strengthening the lines (Ted Thompson blueprint) and that's what they've done. Their o-line pickups were the best of the offseason and no team got better on the offensive line in the offseason than the Browns. This is a bad team with a top 5 offensive line and I don't think the average joe will realize that. So it should allow more flexibility to what they do at qb (at least they won't have to worry about cycling 5/6 qbs in because they're getting killed---huge problem last year) and more importantly be more effective running the football.
Strategy on offense: It will be to shorten the game and run the football a lot. Hue didn't run nearly enough last year and he knows that...almost every camp press conference mentioned what will be a dedication to the run... as he has a very solid line to run behind now (and 3 capable backs + possibly Peppers). Duke will catch more balls out of the backfield as well. This isn't going to be a downfield offense no matter who is at qb.
Originally I thought Greg Williams was overhyped and overrated. Not sure I've completely changed my opinion but I do think he's the right D.C. For this team right now. He brings leadership, experience, and an attack mode that these younger guys like and need.
And boy did he walk into a good situation. This front 7 can be dangerous and very good......
Myles looks incredible...I love the pick so much. No way this guy is Courtney Brown 2.0.
Desmond Bryant is back and looks great ...people won't remember he was the Browns' top dlineman before he got hurt.
Shelton has improved a TON and I think Ogbah will show improvement as well because of the strength of the other guys...he's shown flashes.
Good young depth behind them too in Nassib, Coley, Meder, Orchard...they'll rotate in and keep Guys fresh.
I haven't been this excited about the Browns defensive line in over 20 years.
Linebackers:
Who would have thought who I consider to be a top 5 backer in Jamie Collins to resign with the Browns. That's the Greg Williams effect.
Kirksey is the 3 or 4 most underrated backers in the league. Just look at statistically what he's done.
I'm projecting Schobert to win the Mike job. Better position fit for him--he's worked hard in the offseason to be a better cover backer (lost 15 lbs--got quicker) and has had a better camp than Carder.
This will be a very very good front 7 imo...and they have scheme fit.
Secondary is a little unproven and mostly dependent on how well Haden is going to be able to bounce back. If he was a race horse you would have considered putting him down last year...he said he hadn't been healthy in a few years and finally feels 100%. We'll see. Not a great camp for the limited time he was out there. Definitely the wildcard.
The playing time of others due to injury last year has led to depth improvement (guys like Kindred and Boddy-Calhoun have looked much improved) and I know Peppers will make an immediate impact (I wanted Hooker badly and go bucks). Guy looks like an absolute beast who will thrive in this scheme and offer playmaking value on special teams. Last year the Browns had the worst secondary in the league by far. With Haden healthy, Taylor on the other end, much better safeties in the rotation (Calvin Pryor was a good pick-up too even though he's been buried in the depth chart so far) they're much more capable at every position and as a unit...better scheme fits for GW too.
Lastly...Hue was a first half coach last year. He'll be able execute how he wants, but he's had trouble with adjustments (a lot of that is likely talent related) and they haven't won second halves. What he wants to do is run the ball and play defense. That's more likely to be controlled in the first half based on past experience.
So, I will be playing the Browns 1st half Under all 20 games (nflx included), and believe it will go 13-7 or better. (Will probably play Browns game unders as well).
1-0 so far...
