NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for December 22
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Unlikable Boston
One reason why I want to go against Boston tonight is its problematic offense.
In order to bet the favorite, one should be sufficiently comfortable with the idea that its offense can put up points with ease, so that the team may win by enough points to cover the spread.
But the exact opposite is the case with Boston, which ranks 21st in offensive rating.
The Celtics run a relatively high frequency of isolation plays because they lean heavily on two single players.
By wide margins, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown lead the team in points per game.
Of the two, Tatum is arguably the most important. He averages 25.9 points per game, which is 4.1 more than Brown and 9.1 more than the team's third-leading scorer.
Of course, Tatum also averages more minutes and attempts more field goals per game.
Cleveland, however, has been one of his most difficult opponents. In two games against the Cavs this season, he averages 22 points per game on a very inefficient 35.7-percent shooting.
So, not only is Boston's entire offense unreliable because of its heavy reliance on two players. But the player Boston relies on the most is himself less trustworthy tonight given his repeated failures against tonight's opponent.
Cleveland's Defense
A big part of Cleveland's ongoing 14-game -- no, this isn't a typo -- ATS win streak is its defense.
Despite some early-season troubles, the Cavs rank third in defensive rating behind last year's runner-up Phoenix and Golden State.
They are superb at limiting opposing three-point attempts -- they allow the sixth-fewest per game.
So what they do is run opponents off the three-point line in order to force them to deal with their rim protectors.
Their unit of rim protectors is deep and stacked with quality. This depth of quality explains why I like Cleveland despite the absences of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
In the two games that they missed so far, Cleveland actually allowed an even lower field goal percentage within five feet of the basket than their season average.
On the season, they already rank number one in defending the basket as measured by this opposing shooting statistic.
What is so impressive about their defensive success in the two games without Allen and Mobley is the quality of their opponents. They played Golden State and Brooklyn, two teams that are far removed from the struggles that plague lackluster Boston.
Best Bet: Cavaliers +5.5 at -110 with Bovada
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City
Thunder Offense vs. Nugget Defense
Oklahoma City's offense is very ball-screen-oriented.
The Thunder run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play-type with the fourth-most frequency.
They are intricate in this respect, often staggering their screens to force defenses to try to guard multiple ball-screens in quick succession.
In a similar vein, they'll execute a dribble hand-off and then a ball-screen in consecutive actions.
They'll flourish with their offensive focus on ball-screens against a Nugget defense that is one of the worst at defending them.
Denver ranks eighth-to-last in limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on this play type.
Lack of Support
Denver scored a lot in its last game largely because rookie Bones Hyland had the game of his life offensively.
Normally, he is only good for a few points in a game.
Will Barton is the team's second-leading scorer, a guy Denver normally counts on for scoring support.
Barton, however, is in one of his shooting slumps. His inefficiency on the floor contributes to the fact that he's scored a combined total of 13 points in his past two games.
The Nuggets' third-leading scorer, Aaron Gordon, is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game.
Without these players, a Nugget team already dealing with long-term injuries to key scorers lacks the weaponry to make up for its defensive problems against a Thunder squad uniquely designed to exploit those problems.
Best Bet: Thunder +6 at +100 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Unlikable Boston
One reason why I want to go against Boston tonight is its problematic offense.
In order to bet the favorite, one should be sufficiently comfortable with the idea that its offense can put up points with ease, so that the team may win by enough points to cover the spread.
But the exact opposite is the case with Boston, which ranks 21st in offensive rating.
The Celtics run a relatively high frequency of isolation plays because they lean heavily on two single players.
By wide margins, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown lead the team in points per game.
Of the two, Tatum is arguably the most important. He averages 25.9 points per game, which is 4.1 more than Brown and 9.1 more than the team's third-leading scorer.
Of course, Tatum also averages more minutes and attempts more field goals per game.
Cleveland, however, has been one of his most difficult opponents. In two games against the Cavs this season, he averages 22 points per game on a very inefficient 35.7-percent shooting.
So, not only is Boston's entire offense unreliable because of its heavy reliance on two players. But the player Boston relies on the most is himself less trustworthy tonight given his repeated failures against tonight's opponent.
Cleveland's Defense
A big part of Cleveland's ongoing 14-game -- no, this isn't a typo -- ATS win streak is its defense.
Despite some early-season troubles, the Cavs rank third in defensive rating behind last year's runner-up Phoenix and Golden State.
They are superb at limiting opposing three-point attempts -- they allow the sixth-fewest per game.
So what they do is run opponents off the three-point line in order to force them to deal with their rim protectors.
Their unit of rim protectors is deep and stacked with quality. This depth of quality explains why I like Cleveland despite the absences of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
In the two games that they missed so far, Cleveland actually allowed an even lower field goal percentage within five feet of the basket than their season average.
On the season, they already rank number one in defending the basket as measured by this opposing shooting statistic.
What is so impressive about their defensive success in the two games without Allen and Mobley is the quality of their opponents. They played Golden State and Brooklyn, two teams that are far removed from the struggles that plague lackluster Boston.
Best Bet: Cavaliers +5.5 at -110 with Bovada
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City
Thunder Offense vs. Nugget Defense
Oklahoma City's offense is very ball-screen-oriented.
The Thunder run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play-type with the fourth-most frequency.
They are intricate in this respect, often staggering their screens to force defenses to try to guard multiple ball-screens in quick succession.
In a similar vein, they'll execute a dribble hand-off and then a ball-screen in consecutive actions.
They'll flourish with their offensive focus on ball-screens against a Nugget defense that is one of the worst at defending them.
Denver ranks eighth-to-last in limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on this play type.
Lack of Support
Denver scored a lot in its last game largely because rookie Bones Hyland had the game of his life offensively.
Normally, he is only good for a few points in a game.
Will Barton is the team's second-leading scorer, a guy Denver normally counts on for scoring support.
Barton, however, is in one of his shooting slumps. His inefficiency on the floor contributes to the fact that he's scored a combined total of 13 points in his past two games.
The Nuggets' third-leading scorer, Aaron Gordon, is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game.
Without these players, a Nugget team already dealing with long-term injuries to key scorers lacks the weaponry to make up for its defensive problems against a Thunder squad uniquely designed to exploit those problems.
Best Bet: Thunder +6 at +100 with BetOnline
