Young Starting Pitchers Take Center Stage In Tigers-Indians Matinee
Cleveland (7-4) at Detroit (8-4)
When: 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Cleveland's Shane Bieber (0-0 3.38 ERA) is a pitcher who I am interested in backing especially early in the season while oddsmakers undervalue him. After eight innings, he appears to have tweaked his game in ways that will yield great results for him.
Last year, Bieber's ERA was 1.17 higher than it is now. He struggled particularly when he threw too many strikes and left too many pitches down the middle. In six starts last year, he threw at least 50% of his pitches in the zone. In five of them, his ERA was at least 6.00. This year, though, he is adjusting his mentality to become more of a plate-nibbler. In neither outing so far have his pitches landed in the strike zone more than 41.2% of the time. His pitches are landing with 5.85% lower frequency in the middle of the zone. Bieber is throwing fewer strikes and finding more success as a result.
The key to Bieber's success is striking batters out. His three most frequent pitch locations are in the three lowest right spots in the strike zone, which is where he induces the greatest rate of whiffs. In particular, he is throwing his curveball there more often. He has improved this pitch by adding greater movement to it while still commanding it for a higher strike rate. His slider has already been very good based on opposing BA and chase rate because of its precise location and lack of vertical movement, which makes it harder to strike. He now has two effective off-speed pitches.
Tiger hitters have a good career batting average against him. But, all their hits were singles and they struck out 11 times in 29 at-bats while walking zero times. The Tigers match up poorly with Bieber because the improved edition of Bieber lives on the borders of the strike zone and Detroit's hitters collectively are one of the worst at plate discipline based on percentage of pitches swung at outside the zone and percentage of swinging strikes.
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Detroit's Spencer Turnbull (0-1, 4.09 ERA) hopes to bounce back from an unlucky outing. He gave up two earned runs in six innings against the Royals and his 0.74 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) indicates that he actually performed even better than his ERA suggests. He allowed a high BABIP, (batting average of balls in play) although he allowed a hard contact rate well below his season average.
Turnbull fits well in his own ballpark as a fly ball pitcher. He relies particularly on his fastball and likes to elevate it with the 80th-highest spin rate. Because it's easier to induce fly balls with this pitch than with his sinker, he was wise to move from his sinker being his primary pitch to making it his fastball. His sinker is still an effective weapon because of its intense horizontal movement that makes it elusive and his ability to locate it even high in the strike zone. He has not allowed a hit with his slider, which he pinpoints in the lowest-right spot of the zone with tight movement 47% of the time.
I like Turnbull against Cleveland because the Indians are really struggling to hit on the road. They crushed Jordan Zimmerman, who was off on that particular day as evidenced by the unusually low spin rate of his fastball. The Indians slugged .667 against his fastball. But overall, they are one of the worst teams against this pitch. They produced two runs in two games at Minnesota when Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi were mostly throwing lower-velocity fastballs up in the zone like Turnbull gladly does. Besides that one game against Zimmerman-led Detroit, the Indians have mustered six runs in four road games combined.
It will be a cold day and the bats will likewise be cold. If you want a full-game play, take the under, as both bullpens are pitching extremely well. I like the first-half play more because I know for sure who will pitch through five innings.
Cleveland (7-4) at Detroit (8-4)
When: 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Cleveland's Shane Bieber (0-0 3.38 ERA) is a pitcher who I am interested in backing especially early in the season while oddsmakers undervalue him. After eight innings, he appears to have tweaked his game in ways that will yield great results for him.
Last year, Bieber's ERA was 1.17 higher than it is now. He struggled particularly when he threw too many strikes and left too many pitches down the middle. In six starts last year, he threw at least 50% of his pitches in the zone. In five of them, his ERA was at least 6.00. This year, though, he is adjusting his mentality to become more of a plate-nibbler. In neither outing so far have his pitches landed in the strike zone more than 41.2% of the time. His pitches are landing with 5.85% lower frequency in the middle of the zone. Bieber is throwing fewer strikes and finding more success as a result.
The key to Bieber's success is striking batters out. His three most frequent pitch locations are in the three lowest right spots in the strike zone, which is where he induces the greatest rate of whiffs. In particular, he is throwing his curveball there more often. He has improved this pitch by adding greater movement to it while still commanding it for a higher strike rate. His slider has already been very good based on opposing BA and chase rate because of its precise location and lack of vertical movement, which makes it harder to strike. He now has two effective off-speed pitches.
Tiger hitters have a good career batting average against him. But, all their hits were singles and they struck out 11 times in 29 at-bats while walking zero times. The Tigers match up poorly with Bieber because the improved edition of Bieber lives on the borders of the strike zone and Detroit's hitters collectively are one of the worst at plate discipline based on percentage of pitches swung at outside the zone and percentage of swinging strikes.
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Detroit's Spencer Turnbull (0-1, 4.09 ERA) hopes to bounce back from an unlucky outing. He gave up two earned runs in six innings against the Royals and his 0.74 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) indicates that he actually performed even better than his ERA suggests. He allowed a high BABIP, (batting average of balls in play) although he allowed a hard contact rate well below his season average.
Turnbull fits well in his own ballpark as a fly ball pitcher. He relies particularly on his fastball and likes to elevate it with the 80th-highest spin rate. Because it's easier to induce fly balls with this pitch than with his sinker, he was wise to move from his sinker being his primary pitch to making it his fastball. His sinker is still an effective weapon because of its intense horizontal movement that makes it elusive and his ability to locate it even high in the strike zone. He has not allowed a hit with his slider, which he pinpoints in the lowest-right spot of the zone with tight movement 47% of the time.
I like Turnbull against Cleveland because the Indians are really struggling to hit on the road. They crushed Jordan Zimmerman, who was off on that particular day as evidenced by the unusually low spin rate of his fastball. The Indians slugged .667 against his fastball. But overall, they are one of the worst teams against this pitch. They produced two runs in two games at Minnesota when Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi were mostly throwing lower-velocity fastballs up in the zone like Turnbull gladly does. Besides that one game against Zimmerman-led Detroit, the Indians have mustered six runs in four road games combined.
It will be a cold day and the bats will likewise be cold. If you want a full-game play, take the under, as both bullpens are pitching extremely well. I like the first-half play more because I know for sure who will pitch through five innings.
