Indians vs Tigers and Devil Rays vs Astros: MLB Betting Picks
Meta: How Should You Bet Cleveland vs Detroit and Tampa Bay vs Astros evening battles?
Indians vs Tigers
Tuesday, August 29 2019 at Comerica Park
Detroit's Spencer Turnbull (3-12, 4.05 ERA) is the second-least profitable pitcher on an extremely unprofitable team. He's yielding -8.85 units with Detroit having lost in each of his last 11 starts. The Tigers lost in each of his last six starts by three runs or more.
It's crucial for a Tiger pitcher to be able to last longer in outings. Turnbull, though, is usually an inefficient pitcher. He struggles to throw strikes. Only 40 percent of his pitches land in the strike zone, his first-pitch strike percentage is 58.6, and he walks 3.66 batters per nine innings. As a result, he exited after three innings in two of his previous four starts. When Turnbull succeeds, he tends to induce teams to swing at a lot of his pitches outside the zone.
Turnbull is in a tough spot tonight because of his unreliable command. In the past seven days, Cleveland's lineup possesses the best plate discipline in terms of swinging at a low percentage of pitches outside the zone. It will force Turnbull to throw more hittable pitches, in which case, again, the Indians are in a good spot because they rank fourth in August in slugging against Turnbull's favorite pitch, the fastball.
The less Turnbull pitches, the more Detroit's bullpen does, which is problematic because Detroit ranks sixth-to-worst in bullpen ERA. The Tigers' pen has played a big role in Cleveland's success against Detroit. The Indians have won 11 games in a row against the Tigers and they're usually not even close. Active Indian batters hit .375 and slug .518 against Turnbull. Watch out for Oscar Mercado, who's 5-for-8 (.625) with a double.
Adam Plutko (5-3, 4.54 ERA) is Cleveland's second-most profitable pitcher. He's about equally profitable both at home and on the road. Overall, he yields +4.9 units. The Indians won both times by multiple runs when he started against Detroit.
Plutko relies mostly on his fastball, which he throws over half the time. He looks reliable today because he's been executing his favorite pitch well. His last two opponents hit .222 and .188 against it, respectively.
Detroit has lost four of its last five home games mostly thanks to poor hitting with the lineup mustering two runs or fewer in three of those losses. It matches up poorly with Plutko, ranking 26th in slugging against his favorite pitch in August, and will then have to deal with baseball's best bullpen by ERA.
Best Bet: Indians ML at -138 with 5Dimes
Devil Rays vs Astros
Tuesday, August 29 2019 at Minute Maid Park
Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton (13-5, 2.85 ERA) has benefited from an easy schedule lately. His last four opponents each stand at least 20 games below .500. Tonight, he'll be dogged for the first time since his start on July 30 in Boston.
Morton has struggled on the road lately, yielding four runs or more in each of his last three away starts. When Morton struggles, either his fastball or curveball tends to be ineffective. His last two road opponents, for example, slugged over .500 against it. His fastball is, like his curveball, a primary pitch for him. But he often struggles to locate it as four of its six most frequent locations are within the nine most middle spots of the zone.
Astro batters have persistently matched up well with Morton. In the second half of the season, they rank second in slugging against his two primary pitches, the fastball and curveball, which together make up 67 percent of his arsenal. Given this match-up advantage, they hit .308 against Morton. Martin Maldonado, for instance, is 7-for-13 (.538) with a double. As a team, Houston has won four in a row, scoring 27 runs in this span.
Justin Verlander (15-5, 2.77 ERA) is in a great spot for Houston. After a loss, he's a perfect 4-0, winning even in Yankee Stadium and in Oakland. He's shown strong form lately, conceding four runs in his last two starts combined, totaling 16 innings. During this span, he struck out 22 batters and walked nobody.
Verlander enjoys a nasty 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season. His fastball is his favorite pitch in frequency and second-favorite in whiff percentage. It boasts elite quality, ranking in the 76th percentile in velocity and 98th in spin, for which reason opponents hit .231 against it. If he gets into trouble, he leans on his slider more heavily. His slider generates whiffs at an even greater rate-- in 25 percent of its instances-- and batters hit .113 against it.
In 91 at-bats, Tampa Bay hitters bat .198 and slug .264 against Verlander. Kevin Kiermaier, Erik Sogard, and Mike Zunino are combined 1-for-32 with 17 strikeouts.
Best Bet: Astros RL at +115 with 5Dimes
Meta: How Should You Bet Cleveland vs Detroit and Tampa Bay vs Astros evening battles?
Indians vs Tigers
Tuesday, August 29 2019 at Comerica Park
Detroit's Spencer Turnbull (3-12, 4.05 ERA) is the second-least profitable pitcher on an extremely unprofitable team. He's yielding -8.85 units with Detroit having lost in each of his last 11 starts. The Tigers lost in each of his last six starts by three runs or more.
It's crucial for a Tiger pitcher to be able to last longer in outings. Turnbull, though, is usually an inefficient pitcher. He struggles to throw strikes. Only 40 percent of his pitches land in the strike zone, his first-pitch strike percentage is 58.6, and he walks 3.66 batters per nine innings. As a result, he exited after three innings in two of his previous four starts. When Turnbull succeeds, he tends to induce teams to swing at a lot of his pitches outside the zone.
Turnbull is in a tough spot tonight because of his unreliable command. In the past seven days, Cleveland's lineup possesses the best plate discipline in terms of swinging at a low percentage of pitches outside the zone. It will force Turnbull to throw more hittable pitches, in which case, again, the Indians are in a good spot because they rank fourth in August in slugging against Turnbull's favorite pitch, the fastball.
The less Turnbull pitches, the more Detroit's bullpen does, which is problematic because Detroit ranks sixth-to-worst in bullpen ERA. The Tigers' pen has played a big role in Cleveland's success against Detroit. The Indians have won 11 games in a row against the Tigers and they're usually not even close. Active Indian batters hit .375 and slug .518 against Turnbull. Watch out for Oscar Mercado, who's 5-for-8 (.625) with a double.
Adam Plutko (5-3, 4.54 ERA) is Cleveland's second-most profitable pitcher. He's about equally profitable both at home and on the road. Overall, he yields +4.9 units. The Indians won both times by multiple runs when he started against Detroit.
Plutko relies mostly on his fastball, which he throws over half the time. He looks reliable today because he's been executing his favorite pitch well. His last two opponents hit .222 and .188 against it, respectively.
Detroit has lost four of its last five home games mostly thanks to poor hitting with the lineup mustering two runs or fewer in three of those losses. It matches up poorly with Plutko, ranking 26th in slugging against his favorite pitch in August, and will then have to deal with baseball's best bullpen by ERA.
Best Bet: Indians ML at -138 with 5Dimes
Devil Rays vs Astros
Tuesday, August 29 2019 at Minute Maid Park
Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton (13-5, 2.85 ERA) has benefited from an easy schedule lately. His last four opponents each stand at least 20 games below .500. Tonight, he'll be dogged for the first time since his start on July 30 in Boston.
Morton has struggled on the road lately, yielding four runs or more in each of his last three away starts. When Morton struggles, either his fastball or curveball tends to be ineffective. His last two road opponents, for example, slugged over .500 against it. His fastball is, like his curveball, a primary pitch for him. But he often struggles to locate it as four of its six most frequent locations are within the nine most middle spots of the zone.
Astro batters have persistently matched up well with Morton. In the second half of the season, they rank second in slugging against his two primary pitches, the fastball and curveball, which together make up 67 percent of his arsenal. Given this match-up advantage, they hit .308 against Morton. Martin Maldonado, for instance, is 7-for-13 (.538) with a double. As a team, Houston has won four in a row, scoring 27 runs in this span.
Justin Verlander (15-5, 2.77 ERA) is in a great spot for Houston. After a loss, he's a perfect 4-0, winning even in Yankee Stadium and in Oakland. He's shown strong form lately, conceding four runs in his last two starts combined, totaling 16 innings. During this span, he struck out 22 batters and walked nobody.
Verlander enjoys a nasty 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season. His fastball is his favorite pitch in frequency and second-favorite in whiff percentage. It boasts elite quality, ranking in the 76th percentile in velocity and 98th in spin, for which reason opponents hit .231 against it. If he gets into trouble, he leans on his slider more heavily. His slider generates whiffs at an even greater rate-- in 25 percent of its instances-- and batters hit .113 against it.
In 91 at-bats, Tampa Bay hitters bat .198 and slug .264 against Verlander. Kevin Kiermaier, Erik Sogard, and Mike Zunino are combined 1-for-32 with 17 strikeouts.
Best Bet: Astros RL at +115 with 5Dimes
