NCAA Football Week 16 Parlay Plays for Saturday
Clemson Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, December 19, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (ABC) at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
False Narratives
Despite losing the initial meeting 47-40, Clemson is now favored to beat Notre Dame by double digits at the top Sports Betting Sites.
Clemson is so popular with bettors because they are believing in false narratives.
One false narrative is that Clemson lost because star quarterback Trevor Lawrence did not play.
But consider that Lawrence’s backup, DJ Uiagalelei, ranked as the top pro-style quarterback in his class. Uiagalelei is a supremely talented quarterback who would start on just about every other team.
In that game against the Irish, he did not struggle to accrue yards. He did not struggle in general. He threw for 439 yards.
I have to ask those who believe in this narrative: do you really think that Lawrence would have thrown for more yards? Would Lawrence really have performed better?
Uiagalelei, moreover, did not have anything to do with the fact that Clemson allowed 47 points (33 of which came in regulation). After all, Lawrence does not also play defense.
It is true that the Tigers will get some important defenders back: James Skalski at linebacker looks fit to play. Another leader, Tyler Davis at defensive tackle, will also play.
But to justify betting on Clemson — at a number that seems seven or eight points too high to me -- on the basis of a couple individuals is uncalled for.
You have to especially factor in the number of mistakes that the Irish made offensively. They fumbled the ball on the goal line and committed a false start that negated a would-be touchdown.
So it’s not just about not overrating the value of Davis and Skalski. It’s realizing that the Irish could have and should have easily scored more points.
The game did not go into overtime despite the absence of Clemson players.
It went into overtime because Clemson has a superb backup quarterback who had already received playing time with the starters and because the Irish uncharacteristically choked in the red zone.
Notre Dame’s Defense vs. Clemson Offense
Clemson owns arguably the nation’s top running back in Travis Etienne. But when he faced Notre Dame, the Irish held him to 28 yards on 18 carries.
This was not a fluke performance from the Notre Dame defense. The Irish did the same thing to a Tar Heel offense that possesses the leading and third-leading running backs in the ACC.
After a slow first quarter in which the Notre Dame defensive line was still asleep, the Irish almost shut out UNC in a 31-17 victory.
They held the Tar Heels to 2.9 YPC on 30 rushing attempts, even though they also had to account for the ACC’s leader in passing yardage, Sam Howell.
After UNC’s offense put up a historic performance against highly ranked Miami, the Irish defense must seem to be all the better.
Notre Dame’s defensive line is a big reason why the team ranks 29th in sack rate.
Defensive coordinator Clark Lea is also great at creating pressure. He’ll employ stunts and a variety of blitzes and he’s able to trust his cornerbacks in isolation in order to employ these pressure-creating tactics.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Clemson Defense
Defensively, Clemson has shown problems with mobile quarterbacks.
A very mediocre Virginia squad, for example, was able to generate 23 points against the Tiger defense partly because of Brennan Armstrong’s near 100-yard effort on the ground. And yes, Skalski did play in that game.
Irish quarterback Ian Book averages 5.1 YPC. He is great at selling the run — after all, defenses do have to respect 1,000-yard rusher Kyren Williams, who is so dangerous partly because of stout run-blocking — and he will kill defenses when he gets outside the tackles.
Of course, Book is also quite accurate. He’s completing 63.3 percent of his passes while throwing 15 touchdowns to two interceptions.
He’ll favor Javon McKinley, who resembles the type of wide receiver that the Tiger secondary struggles against.
Like, say, Virginia’s Billy Kemp, who caught 10 passes for 96 yards against the Tigers, McKinley is a threat with his speed and athleticism.
His offense will get him going in open space where he reliably achieves big plays.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 19, 2020 at 5:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
The Situation
The Fighting Illini have nothing to gain from this game. They are 2-5 and just got blown out by their in-state rival.
Perhaps more importantly, they just lost their head coach Lovie Smith who will not be present at the game. Instead, they will be coached by underwhelming offensive coordinator Rod Smith.
On the other side, Penn State has won three games in a row after staring 0-5. So the Nittany Lions want to keep momentum and ultimately compete in a bowl game.
Moreover, under James Franklin, who clearly has regained control over his team after an awful start to the season, Penn State is known for being a bully.
Frankin-led Penn State loves to run up the score on lesser opponents and to play four quarters even with a huge lead. Last year against Maryland, for example, Penn State beat Maryland 14-0 in the fourth quarter in order to win 59-0.
Illinois Offense vs. Penn State Defense
The Illini are utilizing multiple quarterbacks. They are all inept passers.
There’s Brandon Peters, who’s converting 51.3 percent of his pass attempts. There’s also Isaiah Williams, who’s converting 40 percent of them.
It’s hard to imagine these Illini quarterbacks improving against Penn State’s pass defense, which ranks fourth in the Big Ten.
Penn State brings strong cornerback play on the outside with guys like Joey Porter, who recently earned Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors.
During its win streak, Penn State is allowing fewer big plays through the air. This reduced vulnerability will pose problems to Illini quarterbacks who will be unable to hit home runs against this defense but lack the accuracy to be efficient enough to sustain drives.
Even with some good games from their running backs, Illinois only mustered 10 points against Northwestern because of its inability to threaten the defense vertically.
Still, the Nittany Lion front seven has improved significantly and is allowing 3.6 YPC in the past three games. So Illinois won’t do too much damage, if any, against a Nittany Lion run defense that has maximized the abilities of their linebackers who are able to step up after Micah Parsons had opted out.
Penn State Offense vs. Illinois Defense
PSU quarterback Sean Clifford continues to step up after he had been benched. Clearly benefitting from renewed motivation, he’s thrown one interception in his past three games after throwing seven in his first five games.
Clifford’s improved accuracy, efficiency, and decision-making will allow him more opportunities to find Jahan Dotson, a reliable playmaker who is coming off his fourth 90+-yard receiving game on the season.
Penn State rediscovered dominance on the ground against Rutgers where running backs Keyvone Lee and Devyn Ford both accrued over 5.5 YPC on over 10 rushing attempts.
The Nittany Lions’ ability to run is critical for their RPO game. They amplify their threat with the running abilities both of Clifford and fellow quarterback Will Levis.
Both quarterbacks can gain a lot on the ground and so use their rushing ability to create more room for their running backs.
Not that Penn State’s running backs will need much help against an Illini run defense that is allowing 226.9 rushing yards per game. Illinois ranks 118th nationally in run defense.
The Verdict
Notre Dame will be creative defensively in order to maximize a well-proven pass rush that has already shown itself to be difference-making against top-level, well-rounded offenses.
For the Irish, Ian Book will be dangerous on the ground, thus supplementing the threat already posed by Kyren Williams, and he’ll be dangerous through the air where he can utilize playmakers in space who typify the wide receivers who Clemson does not want to see.
Penn State, meanwhile, enjoys a favorable situation. They will keep momentum and bully a hapless Illinois defense that might be emaciated by COVID issues and a hapless Illinois offense that lacks competent quarterback play.
Best Bet: Parlay Fighting Irish +10.5 at -113 & Nittany Lions -14.5 at -112 at +257 odds with BetOnline
Clemson Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, December 19, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (ABC) at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
False Narratives
Despite losing the initial meeting 47-40, Clemson is now favored to beat Notre Dame by double digits at the top Sports Betting Sites.
Clemson is so popular with bettors because they are believing in false narratives.
One false narrative is that Clemson lost because star quarterback Trevor Lawrence did not play.
But consider that Lawrence’s backup, DJ Uiagalelei, ranked as the top pro-style quarterback in his class. Uiagalelei is a supremely talented quarterback who would start on just about every other team.
In that game against the Irish, he did not struggle to accrue yards. He did not struggle in general. He threw for 439 yards.
I have to ask those who believe in this narrative: do you really think that Lawrence would have thrown for more yards? Would Lawrence really have performed better?
Uiagalelei, moreover, did not have anything to do with the fact that Clemson allowed 47 points (33 of which came in regulation). After all, Lawrence does not also play defense.
It is true that the Tigers will get some important defenders back: James Skalski at linebacker looks fit to play. Another leader, Tyler Davis at defensive tackle, will also play.
But to justify betting on Clemson — at a number that seems seven or eight points too high to me -- on the basis of a couple individuals is uncalled for.
You have to especially factor in the number of mistakes that the Irish made offensively. They fumbled the ball on the goal line and committed a false start that negated a would-be touchdown.
So it’s not just about not overrating the value of Davis and Skalski. It’s realizing that the Irish could have and should have easily scored more points.
The game did not go into overtime despite the absence of Clemson players.
It went into overtime because Clemson has a superb backup quarterback who had already received playing time with the starters and because the Irish uncharacteristically choked in the red zone.
Notre Dame’s Defense vs. Clemson Offense
Clemson owns arguably the nation’s top running back in Travis Etienne. But when he faced Notre Dame, the Irish held him to 28 yards on 18 carries.
This was not a fluke performance from the Notre Dame defense. The Irish did the same thing to a Tar Heel offense that possesses the leading and third-leading running backs in the ACC.
After a slow first quarter in which the Notre Dame defensive line was still asleep, the Irish almost shut out UNC in a 31-17 victory.
They held the Tar Heels to 2.9 YPC on 30 rushing attempts, even though they also had to account for the ACC’s leader in passing yardage, Sam Howell.
After UNC’s offense put up a historic performance against highly ranked Miami, the Irish defense must seem to be all the better.
Notre Dame’s defensive line is a big reason why the team ranks 29th in sack rate.
Defensive coordinator Clark Lea is also great at creating pressure. He’ll employ stunts and a variety of blitzes and he’s able to trust his cornerbacks in isolation in order to employ these pressure-creating tactics.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Clemson Defense
Defensively, Clemson has shown problems with mobile quarterbacks.
A very mediocre Virginia squad, for example, was able to generate 23 points against the Tiger defense partly because of Brennan Armstrong’s near 100-yard effort on the ground. And yes, Skalski did play in that game.
Irish quarterback Ian Book averages 5.1 YPC. He is great at selling the run — after all, defenses do have to respect 1,000-yard rusher Kyren Williams, who is so dangerous partly because of stout run-blocking — and he will kill defenses when he gets outside the tackles.
Of course, Book is also quite accurate. He’s completing 63.3 percent of his passes while throwing 15 touchdowns to two interceptions.
He’ll favor Javon McKinley, who resembles the type of wide receiver that the Tiger secondary struggles against.
Like, say, Virginia’s Billy Kemp, who caught 10 passes for 96 yards against the Tigers, McKinley is a threat with his speed and athleticism.
His offense will get him going in open space where he reliably achieves big plays.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 19, 2020 at 5:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
The Situation
The Fighting Illini have nothing to gain from this game. They are 2-5 and just got blown out by their in-state rival.
Perhaps more importantly, they just lost their head coach Lovie Smith who will not be present at the game. Instead, they will be coached by underwhelming offensive coordinator Rod Smith.
On the other side, Penn State has won three games in a row after staring 0-5. So the Nittany Lions want to keep momentum and ultimately compete in a bowl game.
Moreover, under James Franklin, who clearly has regained control over his team after an awful start to the season, Penn State is known for being a bully.
Frankin-led Penn State loves to run up the score on lesser opponents and to play four quarters even with a huge lead. Last year against Maryland, for example, Penn State beat Maryland 14-0 in the fourth quarter in order to win 59-0.
Illinois Offense vs. Penn State Defense
The Illini are utilizing multiple quarterbacks. They are all inept passers.
There’s Brandon Peters, who’s converting 51.3 percent of his pass attempts. There’s also Isaiah Williams, who’s converting 40 percent of them.
It’s hard to imagine these Illini quarterbacks improving against Penn State’s pass defense, which ranks fourth in the Big Ten.
Penn State brings strong cornerback play on the outside with guys like Joey Porter, who recently earned Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors.
During its win streak, Penn State is allowing fewer big plays through the air. This reduced vulnerability will pose problems to Illini quarterbacks who will be unable to hit home runs against this defense but lack the accuracy to be efficient enough to sustain drives.
Even with some good games from their running backs, Illinois only mustered 10 points against Northwestern because of its inability to threaten the defense vertically.
Still, the Nittany Lion front seven has improved significantly and is allowing 3.6 YPC in the past three games. So Illinois won’t do too much damage, if any, against a Nittany Lion run defense that has maximized the abilities of their linebackers who are able to step up after Micah Parsons had opted out.
Penn State Offense vs. Illinois Defense
PSU quarterback Sean Clifford continues to step up after he had been benched. Clearly benefitting from renewed motivation, he’s thrown one interception in his past three games after throwing seven in his first five games.
Clifford’s improved accuracy, efficiency, and decision-making will allow him more opportunities to find Jahan Dotson, a reliable playmaker who is coming off his fourth 90+-yard receiving game on the season.
Penn State rediscovered dominance on the ground against Rutgers where running backs Keyvone Lee and Devyn Ford both accrued over 5.5 YPC on over 10 rushing attempts.
The Nittany Lions’ ability to run is critical for their RPO game. They amplify their threat with the running abilities both of Clifford and fellow quarterback Will Levis.
Both quarterbacks can gain a lot on the ground and so use their rushing ability to create more room for their running backs.
Not that Penn State’s running backs will need much help against an Illini run defense that is allowing 226.9 rushing yards per game. Illinois ranks 118th nationally in run defense.
The Verdict
Notre Dame will be creative defensively in order to maximize a well-proven pass rush that has already shown itself to be difference-making against top-level, well-rounded offenses.
For the Irish, Ian Book will be dangerous on the ground, thus supplementing the threat already posed by Kyren Williams, and he’ll be dangerous through the air where he can utilize playmakers in space who typify the wide receivers who Clemson does not want to see.
Penn State, meanwhile, enjoys a favorable situation. They will keep momentum and bully a hapless Illinois defense that might be emaciated by COVID issues and a hapless Illinois offense that lacks competent quarterback play.
Best Bet: Parlay Fighting Irish +10.5 at -113 & Nittany Lions -14.5 at -112 at +257 odds with BetOnline
