Clemson vs. NC State College Football Week 4 Picks
Clemson Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, September 25, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
Clemson's Offense: Scoring Comparison
In order to even consider investing in the favored team in a game, one needs to have enough confidence in its offense to expect it to outscore the opponent and to win by enough points to cover the spread.
The problem with Clemson, though, is that it is hard to have confidence in its offense.
While its points per game average may look decent enough, this average is inflated by a single game that says little about Clemson.
In this one exception, Clemson scored 49 points against a squad that is not only in the FCS but is also winless. The differential in athletic quality and talent was simply insane
In one of the other games, Clemson mustered 14 points against a Georgia Tech defense that conceded 21 points to MAC team Northern Illinois and 17 points to FCS school Kennesaw State.
As for the other game, the Tigers produced all of a field goal against a Georgia squad that allowed more points to UAB and South Carolina.
Drop in Personnel Quality
Literally everything about Clemson's offense is worse than in previous years.
The offensive line has struggled in its pass and run protection since the beginning of the season.
Part of the problem with this unit is its inexperience and lack of chemistry together.
For the first time since 2016, the Tigers are starting a true freshman in their offensive line.
As for the rest of the offense, Clemson lost recent top pick in the NFL Draft Trevor Lawrence plus elite former Heisman candidate Travis Etienne, plus recent third-round selection wide receiver Amari Rodgers.
These are too many losses to make up for, even just considering the lack of experience at the running back and quarterback positions, each of which is occupied by first-year starters.
DJ Uiagalelei vs. NC State Pass Defense
One specific match-up which I wish to concentrate on is the Clemson pass attack vs. NC State's secondary.
Expectations were high for the former five-star recruit because of his strong performance last year in a nationally televised contest against Notre Dame.
This year, however, Uiagalelei is failing to convert 60 percent of his passes despite averaging a measly 5.5 YPA.
Part of his problem is the lack of support: his run support has deteriorated, thus offering the offense less balance, since a true freshman is replacing Etienne; his pass-catching crew misses Rodgers and his offensive line is younger and more vulnerable.
But part of the problem is also Uiagalelei himself. Even looking back into his high school career, he easily lacks the same accuracy that his predecessor Lawrence showcased.
His lack of accuracy is magnified by bad decision-making as he continues to miss easier reads or, when he finds the right guy, to miss him with an inaccurate pass.
He'll overthrow guys on possibly would-be game-changing plays. When his lack of pass protection compels him to leave the pocket, he fails to make meaningful throws on the run.
All of this inspires pessimism against a Wolfpack defense that returns nine players with a ton of experience in the secondary.
Already before the season began, the Wolfpack were loaded with guys who played a significant number of college football snaps.
Chris Ingram and Teshaun Smith were good enough to start at cornerback for NC State and they are now surpassed on the depth chart.
This deep secondary helps the Wolfpack rank 16th-best in the nation in limiting opposing passer rating.
The defensive line is also helpful with its load of former four-star prospects plus Daniel Joseph, the team's returning sack-leader who, after transferring from Penn State, accrued 6.5 sacks last year.
NC State's Competent Offense
The Wolfpack offense has the sort of proven experience with returning starters at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver that Clemson lacks.
There is depth with a two-pronged rushing attack led by Zonovan Knight's 8.5 YPC and Ricky Person Jr.'s 5..2 YPC and an offensive line filled with returners.
The chemistry between quarterback Devin Leary, whose numbers show that he has the accuracy and downfield throwing ability -- for which he is rather known for -- that his Tiger counterpart lacks, and veteran wide receiver Emeka Emezie is something that Uiagalelei must miss developing with the departed Rodgers.
Best Bet: Wolfpack +10 at -120 with BetOnline
Clemson Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, September 25, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
Clemson's Offense: Scoring Comparison
In order to even consider investing in the favored team in a game, one needs to have enough confidence in its offense to expect it to outscore the opponent and to win by enough points to cover the spread.
The problem with Clemson, though, is that it is hard to have confidence in its offense.
While its points per game average may look decent enough, this average is inflated by a single game that says little about Clemson.
In this one exception, Clemson scored 49 points against a squad that is not only in the FCS but is also winless. The differential in athletic quality and talent was simply insane
In one of the other games, Clemson mustered 14 points against a Georgia Tech defense that conceded 21 points to MAC team Northern Illinois and 17 points to FCS school Kennesaw State.
As for the other game, the Tigers produced all of a field goal against a Georgia squad that allowed more points to UAB and South Carolina.
Drop in Personnel Quality
Literally everything about Clemson's offense is worse than in previous years.
The offensive line has struggled in its pass and run protection since the beginning of the season.
Part of the problem with this unit is its inexperience and lack of chemistry together.
For the first time since 2016, the Tigers are starting a true freshman in their offensive line.
As for the rest of the offense, Clemson lost recent top pick in the NFL Draft Trevor Lawrence plus elite former Heisman candidate Travis Etienne, plus recent third-round selection wide receiver Amari Rodgers.
These are too many losses to make up for, even just considering the lack of experience at the running back and quarterback positions, each of which is occupied by first-year starters.
DJ Uiagalelei vs. NC State Pass Defense
One specific match-up which I wish to concentrate on is the Clemson pass attack vs. NC State's secondary.
Expectations were high for the former five-star recruit because of his strong performance last year in a nationally televised contest against Notre Dame.
This year, however, Uiagalelei is failing to convert 60 percent of his passes despite averaging a measly 5.5 YPA.
Part of his problem is the lack of support: his run support has deteriorated, thus offering the offense less balance, since a true freshman is replacing Etienne; his pass-catching crew misses Rodgers and his offensive line is younger and more vulnerable.
But part of the problem is also Uiagalelei himself. Even looking back into his high school career, he easily lacks the same accuracy that his predecessor Lawrence showcased.
His lack of accuracy is magnified by bad decision-making as he continues to miss easier reads or, when he finds the right guy, to miss him with an inaccurate pass.
He'll overthrow guys on possibly would-be game-changing plays. When his lack of pass protection compels him to leave the pocket, he fails to make meaningful throws on the run.
All of this inspires pessimism against a Wolfpack defense that returns nine players with a ton of experience in the secondary.
Already before the season began, the Wolfpack were loaded with guys who played a significant number of college football snaps.
Chris Ingram and Teshaun Smith were good enough to start at cornerback for NC State and they are now surpassed on the depth chart.
This deep secondary helps the Wolfpack rank 16th-best in the nation in limiting opposing passer rating.
The defensive line is also helpful with its load of former four-star prospects plus Daniel Joseph, the team's returning sack-leader who, after transferring from Penn State, accrued 6.5 sacks last year.
NC State's Competent Offense
The Wolfpack offense has the sort of proven experience with returning starters at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver that Clemson lacks.
There is depth with a two-pronged rushing attack led by Zonovan Knight's 8.5 YPC and Ricky Person Jr.'s 5..2 YPC and an offensive line filled with returners.
The chemistry between quarterback Devin Leary, whose numbers show that he has the accuracy and downfield throwing ability -- for which he is rather known for -- that his Tiger counterpart lacks, and veteran wide receiver Emeka Emezie is something that Uiagalelei must miss developing with the departed Rodgers.
Best Bet: Wolfpack +10 at -120 with BetOnline
