Clash at the Coliseum Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Staff member
2022 Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum Race Preview and Best Bet

Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum
Sunday, February 6, 2022 at 6 p.m. ET (FOX) at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles

Who Will Participate

NASCAR events typically field about 40 competitors.

We'll know who those competitors are in advance because they'll be posted on an entry list before the starting lineup gets published.

The latter has typically been published on the Wednesday before race day.

Betting on this event may seem a bit tricky because of how limited the field will be. Some of the guys we bet on or against may not participate.

We only know that Kyle Larson will participate because he finished atop last year's standings.

This unique betting situation should encourage us to place more bets in case a driver we like doesn't make the field.

There are indeed 40 entrants who will have a chance to compete in the race itself.

However, this group of 40 will be narrowed to 23. This race will thus actually consist of 23 competitors.

Practice Makes Perfect

First of all, there will be practice sessions for the competitors.

This piece of news shouldn't be a surprise to hear because, last season, it was normal for practice sessions to take place when the track was new to competitors.

While the L.A. Coliseum itself is historic and has obviously been around for a lot of different sporting events, this is the first time that NASCAR is visiting this venue. So, practice sessions are certainly necessary.

You can watch these sessions on Saturday, February 5, at 9:30 a.m. ET on FS2.

It would be useful to see how these drivers and their cars look on this track.

How Do We Get To 23

At 5:30 p.m. ET, televised on FS1, on the same day of the practice sessions, qualifying will take place.

Qualifying will determine the positioning for the heat races, which will determine who will participate in the race itself.

The qualifying rounds will be single-car.

On Sunday, the following day, at 3 p.m. ET and televised on FOX, four heat races are scheduled.

There will be four heat races. Each heat race will be 25 laps and will field 10 different drivers.

The four fastest cars from the qualifying will start in pole position for each heat.

Drivers that, in the qualifying, finish first, fifth, ninth, 13th, and so on will participate in the first heat.

The second heat will field drivers that finished second, sixth, 10th, etc. The field in each respective heat will thusly be filled up.

Qualifying rounds assume extra importance because the top qualifying drivers will have a better chance of having pole position for the race.

In the race, pole position will be occupied by the driver who wins heat one while outside pole position will be occupied by the winner of the second heat.

Out of the 10 drivers in each heat, the top four will automatically qualify for the race.

Those drivers who fail to use the heat races to advance will get another opportunity in a "Last Chance" qualifying race.

This final opportunity will take place on Sunday at around 1 p.m. ET -- the second "Last-Chance" race will take place about 20 minutes after the first -- and will be televised on FOX.

These last opportunities will be 50 laps.

Starting position for the race will be determined by the order in which drivers finish in the heat race and, later, by the two "Last-Chance" races.

The drivers who require these last races will start towards the back.

The L.A. Coliseum Track

Drivers will complete 150 laps for this racing event.

One unusual aspect about the track is the very limited banking.

This track is banked at 2.5 degrees throughout.

It is an asphalt track inside the Coliseum that is a quarter-mile long.

My Bets

Martin Truex Jr., has a historical advantage on short tracks.

On such tracks, he has amassed six wins in 16 races since February of 2019.

Last year's runner-up, he is likely to continue succeeding.

This is also a track that no driver will have raced on before.

I believe that this absence of history will make the racing event a more chaotic experience because drivers' track history has predictive value.

As such, drivers who one normally wouldn't invest in will have more of a chance to pull a surprise.

My favorite lower-profile driver is Alex Bowman, who has the third-most wins on short tracks since February 2019.

He has two, which puts him behind Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski in this respect.

Best Bet: Truex Jr. at +600 & Bowman at +1800 with Bovada

 
Hello again, old friends! He Hate Me, CPA, Ryno, and everyone else. Nice to be back.

No idea how to bet this race...probably makes sense to wait for the heat races before pulling any triggers.
 
Don't think you cam take anything from driver averages on short tracks as this track is like nothing compared to any of the Nascar short tracks that are run. Probably need to see who has a history of running at tracks like Bowman Gray and tracks similar to that. That will give you a better idea of who should have a realistic chance of running well and winning here Sunday night.
 
I missed this from earlier, thanks for starting these threads again @VirginiaCavs

A lot of unknowns here but generally I am looking to bet on:

Reddick - Every time I saw an offseason video of testing for the Next-Gen car, he was on the track.
Preece - He has raced a lot of modified races on similar tracks like this.
Larson - probably no value but he races in anything and on any size track well.
Back of the field guys - speaking generally, these guys are not as handicapped as they usually are due to the newness of the Next-Gen car and the even/basic car provided to all teams.

Bet against:

Bubba - he spent the offseason being a movie star and not testing.
 
Also, aggressive drivers who are not afraid to move people like what will be needed on this track should benefit from the new car, which has a composite body and will allow for more "rubbin" without severely damaging the car.
 
Note that this is a green track so those that were in the last practice session had a faster track and therefore the faster speeds. Also, I have highlighted the top 3 speeds for each of the 3 practice groups, which is probably more important than where they rank on this list. 8 out of the 12 drivers in the last group are in the Top 18 in speeds, so Preece #7 in practice 3 and McDowell #8 in practice 3 are not that impressive even though they are on the winner's list.

Clash practice winners:

Top 18 in speeds (I had to go to #18 to pick up the 3rd faster car in the first practice group):

1. Elliott
Harvick
(he is back)
Brisco (something happened to his car at the end of practice)
Haley (Kaulig Racing knows a thing or two about short-track racing)
Kyle Busch (he does well when he has practice and all drivers are starting on even ground now, he could have a big year compared to last)
Reddick
Larson (no surprise)
Cassill
Blaney
Hamlin
Suarez
(kinda a surprise, but taking into consideration how well he fared on the Bristol dirt track which was new to everyone at the time like this track it is not too surprising. He could benefit from all of the newness that everyone else will experience with the new cars. He is a better pure driver than he is given credit for.)
Custer
Ware
Lejoie
Preece
McDowell
Gilliand
18. Kurt Busch (not a good sign for Bubba seeing Kurt in the Top 3 in speeds for his group)


Losers (in bottom 30 in speeds):
30. Truex (he has made many negative comments about the new car over the offseason, but that may be just because it is new)
Keselowski (new car, new team, new everything)
Cindric (he looked really bad)
36. Bubba (I think he brushed the wall early and then took it easy)

Qualifying will be less important than this practice.
 
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The biggest takeaways from qualifying are that Haley and Saurez have good cars as they showed in practice and represent good bets if the matchup is right. Truex and Keselowski do not have good cars as they also showed in practice and I would bet against them if the matchup is right.

Bubba's crew chief made lots of changes before qualifying so he was not as bad as he looked in practice. I still do not think he finishes in the top 1/2 of the field.
 
At Draftkings under Driver Props and then Group Winner and then Group D you can bet:

Reddick +180 to finish ahead of Kurt Busch, Almirola, and Cindric

Reddick looked good in practice and qualifying and I think generally has a better grasp on the new car than almost all other drivers.

Cindric looked like trash in practice as did Almirola and both qualified midpack.

Kurt Busch looked just ok.
 
I also took:

Reddick -175 over Almirola
Hamlin -120 over Truex

I also saw Reddick -155 over Kurt Busch but did not want to be too overloaded on Reddick since I have him in the DK bet mentioned above.

The Reddick to win Group D is my biggest bet.

I am waiting to see if BM puts up anything.
 
I also took:

Reddick -175 over Almirola
Hamlin -120 over Truex

I also saw Reddick -155 over Kurt Busch but did not want to be too overloaded on Reddick since I have him in the DK bet mentioned above.

The Reddick to win Group D is my biggest bet.

I am waiting to see if BM puts up anything.
Ok so Almirola is knocked out…. Does that effect the Reddick +180 wager??
 
Ok so Almirola is knocked out…. Does that effect the Reddick +180 wager??
Good question. I have never bet a race that had heat race qualifiers. It does not look like Cindric will make the race either and Kurt Busch is on the bubble.
 
Reddick will start 2nd and Kurt Busch will start 18th, I think, assuming he wins this qualifier.
 
I am enjoying this performance by Mr. 305 though

I’m a closet PitBull fan, mostly because of his politics too. He HATES communism.
 
What about Ryan Blaney -110 over Truex -120?
It is a decent bet and you are on the right side of the coin flip.

I do not think Truex would have made the race if Larson did not race in leaving Truex to automatically advance. I doubt Truex would have raced his way in. Also, this is a very small track and it will not take long for the leaders to catch Truex and he will let them by so it will be easy for him to get a lap down early.
 
Hamlin is done, overheated or something so I will lose the Hamlin vs Truex bet. Although Truex is trash and was a lap down when this happened.
 
There is no need for me to watch anymore as my Reddick verses Almirola bet was canceled since Almirola did not make the race. I lost Hamlin versus Truex. I hope DK does grade my Reddick Group D bet as a winner.
 
If you wanna bet some longshots before the Daytona 500 qualifing that starts on Tuesday and before the duels, Justin Haley is currently at +3500 and Bubba is currently at +2000 at DK. With the cars being new to everyone, almost everyone has a chance.

If Bubba had spent more of the offseason testing, he would be the better bet as this is really the only type of track that he does well on. They will have practice, qualifying, and the duel races, so maybe Bubba can figure out what he needs to by the actual 500.

I think Haley is the better bet of the two to throw like $20 on to try to win $700. He does well at superspeedways.
 
Agree on this, HHM. Haley is definitely worth a shot. He's already won at Daytona.

Bubba, Austin Dillon, maybe Tyler Reddick could be worth a shot.

The Super Speedway races are always good to find a guy to throw a dart at.

Really fascinated to see how this season plays out with the new car. It's supposed to even the playing field a bit. We shall see.
 
I found Haley at 50:1, so I bet $20 on him.

DK has their matchups up, I bet:
Bubba -110 over Almirola
Kurt Busch -115 over Keselowski
 
I found Haley at 50:1, so I bet $20 on him.

DK has their matchups up, I bet:
Bubba -110 over Almirola
Kurt Busch -115 over Keselowski
I got 40-1 on him Sunday. I'm still sifting through the matchups.

Kez is definitely on my fade list I think. I found Harvick and Kyle Busch both -105 vs him.

Super Speedways aren't Kyle Larsons best, so we might be able to find some good + numbers against him.
 
I got 40-1 on him Sunday. I'm still sifting through the matchups.

Kez is definitely on my fade list I think. I found Harvick and Kyle Busch both -105 vs him.

Super Speedways aren't Kyle Larsons best, so we might be able to find some good + numbers against him.
The Ford cars were all at the top of the leaderboard in both practices today and I bet against two Ford's. Buescher and Keselowski looked especially good. Keselowski usually runs well, but he usually does not finish the race.
 
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