CL Final Discussion

[aplous]

Thoughts? I bet Dortmund +.5 +110.....I love this game to go to extra time. 1-1 or 2-2.


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[TD="width: 100%"]<small>May 25 3:00 pm Graded after regulation time (90 minutes) + injury time </small>[/TD]
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[TD="width: 5"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 215"]Bayern Munich[/TD]
[TD="width: 45, align: right"]-135[/TD]
[TD="width: 85, align: right"]-½ -135[/TD]
[TD="width: 85, align: right"]2½ -145[/TD]
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[TD="width: 215"]Borussia Dortmund[/TD]
[TD="width: 45, align: right"]+325[/TD]
[TD="width: 85, align: right"] +105[/TD]
[TD="width: 85, align: right"] +115[/TD]
[TD="width: 85"] [/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="width: 5"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 215"] - Draw[/TD]
[TD="width: 45, align: right"]+260[/TD]
[TD="width: 85, align: right"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 85, align: right"][/TD]
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[dylanphan]

Last year I had a big play on BM and they of course shit the bed at home.
But I think I have to back them again this year.

Dortmund quite frankly has not been as sound in defense as the past few seasons. Hummels is a doubt (and hasn't been at his best the past few months anyway) and now Goetze has just been ruled out which is a major blow for them.

There is really not much not to love on BM, as they are solid all over the pitch. And not that they'll need any more reason to be motivated, being they lost in last year's finals but this will be Heynckes last game. I don't believe there are any injury concerns for BM, and I really feel that they will not falter in this game.
I would ordinarily root for Dortmund, but my wallet thinks this is BM's to lose

 

[braves]

Agree with dylan completely...

I think ill prolly focus on a bunch.of props once they come out...bayern ml isnt a great price

 

[Toronto_Mike]

ummm isn't this kinda the same scenario as last year? People wrote Chelsea off, BM far superior and then they shit the bed?

 

[Lareux]

I like the over in the Final, don't see how there isn't at least 3 goals in the game.

 

[guaranteeed]

completely different scenario

Dortmund have no depth because of being a smaller club so they can only play 1 way, pressing

Chelsea had a ton of depth and just soaked up the pressure, Dortmund can't do that, they have to outplay Bayern

 

[guaranteeed]

which should lead to an open game, but Dortmund have to score 1st to win, don't see a comeback as possible

 

[Toronto_Mike]

completely different scenario

Dortmund have no depth because of being a smaller club so they can only play 1 way, pressing

Chelsea had a ton of depth and just soaked up the pressure, Dortmund can't do that, they have to outplay Bayern

Completely different scenario hey? why do the odds say differently? "soaked up the pressure" so why can't Dortmund do that? We all wrote Chelsea off last year, plus Bayern had home field advantage as well, still couldn't do it.

 

[braves]

Bayern missed chance after chance in that game last year...pretty amazing Chelsea won tbh..

I'd argue Chelsea was just plain lucky, game should realistically been 3 or 4. Nil

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Bayern missed chance after chance in that game last year...pretty amazing Chelsea won tbh..

I'd argue Chelsea was just plain lucky, game should realistically been 3 or 4. Nil

Luck or not, that's part of it. When Bayern scored first I thought oh crap finally they seem to be relieved and then bam that Chelsea goal out of nowhere.

Yes in terms of dominance Bayern should easily win but the beauty of this game is an underdog can easily just have one shot one goal and win. I'm not saying Dortmund is superior, but damn this just smells like a bad spot for Bayern. They seem to play better when they are doubt, now it just seems like they are such a clear cut favourite that they may well just have a slight slip of error.

 

[braves]

Yeah, I agree we see it all the time in this sport.

I'm not saying Dortmund is a bad bet, but Munich will dominate possession and have multiple chances, feel like it will be real uncomfortable the entire time holding a Dortmund ticket

 

[guaranteeed]

Completely different scenario hey? why do the odds say differently? "soaked up the pressure" so why can't Dortmund do that? We all wrote Chelsea off last year, plus Bayern had home field advantage as well, still couldn't do it.

the odds are the same, so yes in that scenario it is the same, Bayern are favored

the styles of the game aren't though

Chelsea got outplayed in almost every game in the CL last year and won, If Dortmund had been outplayed by RM or Man City they would have been out at the group stages

different teams win in different ways

 

[guaranteeed]

thats not to say Dortmund don't have a chance, just that a team that stays back and soaks up pressure is more likely to cause an upset (a la Chelsea last year vs Barca/BM) than one which goes out and tries to outplay a superior team (a la Barca vs BM this year)

even Klopp said

"If we win the final, we won't be the best team in the world, but we will have beaten currently the best team in the world. And that's what could happen. We just want to enjoy the moment,

 

[dylanphan]

Certainly anything can happen in a one game scenario. I think the best we can do as bettors/punters/handicappers....is to analyze the teams that hit the pitch and figure out what we feel is the most expected result.
I think it was pretty plain to see that BM was superior to Chelsea last year, but, you cannot let Drogba get a chance like that. Dortmund definitely has talent in the attack, and given the chance will be able to score. I am just under the impression that BM will be able to control play once again, and hopefully they will get more than 1 goal. I do not think Dortmunds defense is as good this year as Chelsea's was last year. And losing Goetze and the dynamic he brings to the game is significant.
I do think goals are to be expected - however, the longer the game goes on without a goal, the more pressure will mount on BM.

 

[Pyppurs]

 

[guaranteeed]

Muller last year was a 1/10 as well

He could have had 4-5 goals

He's in amazing form right now

 

[ArizonaKid]

Gotze being out is just devastating, and instead of hedging a Munich future I will let it ride out. Pretty sure they move Reus into his role but that means he won't be flying down the left flank and a less potent player will be on the wing.

Chelsea got just flat out lucky last year, even down to the shootout w/ Muller having been pulled and Alaba suspended.

Agree on goals, have been on the over since before Gotze being out was confirmed.

Tempted to still add to Munich -123 in regulation, believe they win in the first 90.

On the over big and also took a shot on Munich 3-1 exact score at +1150, as well as over 9.5 corners small.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

14 of the last 16 finals have totaled at least 2 goals. The only 2 that didn't, featured at least 1 Italian side (you have to go back to the '90-91 season to find a Final totaling less than 2 goals not involving an Italian side).

Only 2 of the last 36 Finals have been decided by 2-0 scorelines.

No final has ever been drawn 2-2 after extra time (as opposed to 4 x 0-0s, 5 x 1-1s & 1 x 3-3 draws).

The last Final to total exactly 5 goals was in 1968-69.

Bayern Munich has failed to win a final in regulation time its last 6 tries (2 draws, 4 losses).

The last 50 Finals have seen only 1 losing team score more than 1 goal.

There has only ever been 1 Final in which the losing team scored more than 1 goal when the 1st half totaled 2 goals or less.