CINCY vs DUKE discussion

Play2win

Mod by Monday Morning
CIN -7 DUKE



having a hard time with this one, for me...could be toughest of all bowl games to cap. Lean Duke and will gather some thoughts shortly.
 
Motivation factor has to be with Duke here. Most of Cincy coaching staff has moved on/or are moving on to Tenn, Duke's 1st bowl appearance since 1995, have not won a bowl since 1961, and basically a home game--played in Charlotte and Duke has 16 players from the Charlotte area on its roster.

Things that scares me with Duke are the fact that they lost 5 of last 6 games to end season and how bad their defense is, #111 defending 3rd down, allow 35 ppg.

Cincy's George Winn ran for 78 yds and a TD on only 6 carries in last seasons bowl game for Cincy. Winn may have been the biggest snub from All Big East team and may carve up Duke D that ranks #104 vs run and the fact that a win would give Cincy a 10 win season could be motivation. Noticed Cincy has #12 RZ defense vs Duke's #120 RZ defense, Cincy #13 passes defended.
 
Renfree will have his fun against a defense essentially without coaching but Munchie will have his way with the Duke defense as well
 
Play - you touched on this in your last post. I just don't see Duke stopping Cincy's offense much at all, and if you look at what the Bearcats have done on the road this year (4-1 ATS counting the "neutral VT game at FedEx) they have answered the bell in similar spots this year. Its tough for me to make a play on Duke based on this coaching angle, and aside from that I haven't heard a good argument for a Duke bet yet. Cincy is shaping up to be a decent sized play for me - you have 24 seniors, most of whom will be playing the last football game of their lives. Most of the senior starters are on the defensive side of the ball. I think they'll have plenty of motivation tomorrow.

I also don't see Duke as a team that I can count on here to hold up their end of an over bet. I see them scoring in the low 20's and have Cincy getting mid-upper 30's. I'll call it 38-20 Cincy...
 
Cincy #12 scoring D, allow 17.2 ppg, #28 vs run, #74 vs pass

on offense Cincy #42 converting 3rd downs vs Duke #111 defending 3rd downs


likely to be on Cincy and possibly a Winn prop
 
Cincinnati<!--*-->

INSIDE SLANT<!--*-->

Tuberville takes over Bearcats<!--*-->

The University of Cincinnati football program went from shunned to stunned when it was announced that Tommy Tuberville would be its new head football coach, less than 48 hours after Butch Jones departed for Tennessee.

The news drew cheers from Bearcat nation and reactions of shock and surprise in Lubbock, Texas, and across the country. The former Texas Tech coach was introduced as UC's head coach on Dec. 8 before an estimated 1,200 fans in Fifth Third Arena.

"I'm proud to be a Bearcat!" Tuberville said, pumping his fist in the air at a raucous public press conference.

Tuberville's hiring concluded a tumultuous week for UC that began with Jones interviewing at Purdue and Colorado before ultimately agreeing to a six-year, $18 million contract at Tennessee. It was quite the emotional swing for Bearcats fans who learned Jones had turned down an offer from Colorado amid speculation he'd remain at UC, only to learn early the next day that Jones was headed to Knoxville.

UC athletic director Whit Babcock, who knew Tuberville from his days at Auburn, said he wasn't sure how the former Associated Press coach of the year would react to an offer. An agreement in principle on a five-year deal was made by phone with financial details to be ironed out later. One possible factor in Tuberville's decision to leave Lubbock for Cincinnati was that his wife, Suzanne, is from Guilford, Ind., which is around 30 miles from UC's campus.

Tuberville, 58, said he will not coach the Bearcats (9-3) when they face Duke (6-6) in the Belk Bowl on Dec. 27 in Charlotte. UC defensive line coach Steve Stripling will coach the team, as announced following Jones' departure. UC is hoping to reach 10 victories for the fifth time in the past six seasons.

With a career record of 130-77 including an undefeated season at Auburn in 2004, Tuberville is the most accomplished head coach to be hired at Cincinnati. It was speculated that Tuberville was unhappy in Lubbock and would not return after his contract was up. But Texas Tech AD Kirby Hocutt said conversations following the regular season focused on the future of the Red Raiders program and Tuberville gave no indication that he was leaving.

On the surface, UC would seem to be an odd choice for Tuberville despite family ties to the Cincinnati area. The Big East Conference is in disarray following the departures of Louisville to the Atlantic Coast Conference and Rutgers to the Big Ten. UC has plans in place to renovate Nippert Stadium but dirt is a long way from being turned on that project.

Tuberville, who said he would focus his recruiting on the football fertile Cincinnati area while not ignoring talent-laden states such as Texas, California and Florida, said he came to UC to "do something special." Although Tuberville will not be on the sidelines when the Bearcats kick off at the Belk Bowl, the enthusiasm resulting from his hiring should be evident on the field and in the stands on Dec. 27. Said UC president Santa Ono to Tuberville at the public news conference: "We expect greatness from you, but we will be firmly behind you."



--Former Cincinnati coach Butch Jones had spoken often about how tough it is to win 10 games a college football season.

Despite injuries, bitter defeats and a quarterback controversy, the Bearcats are on the brink of accomplishing exactly that.

Cincinnati (9-3) will face Duke (6-6) in the Belk Bowl on Dec. 27 in Charlotte with a chance to notch its 10th win for the fifth time in the last six seasons.

Alabama, Oklahoma, Oregon and Virginia Tech are the only schools to win 10 games the last five seasons.

The game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. at Bank of America Stadium.

The Bearcats, who finished in a four-way tie for the Big East Conference championship with Louisville, Rutgers and Syracuse, are bowl eligible for the sixth time in seven years.

Cincinnati lost its top pass rusher, senior defensive end Walter Stewart, because of a career-threatening spine injury.

The Bearcats adjusted to a quarterback change with five weeks remaining in the season and the Big East title still in flux. They went 7-3 in a stretch of 10 consecutive games without a bye, with three losses coming by a combined 16 points.

The switch to Brendon Kay at quarterback in the third quarter on Nov. 3 against Syracuse provided a much-needed spark for the Bearcats, who went 3-1 with him as the starter.

Kay's ability to throw the deep ball provided an added dimension for the Bearcats. But Cincinnati still uses its running game to jumpstart the offense, led by George Winn, who has rushed for more than 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.

The Belk Bowl, which pits the third choice from the Big East vs. the fifth choice from the ACC, is the Bearcats' sixth bowl trip in seven years, including Orange and Sugar Bowl berths under Brian Kelly.

Duke is playing in a bowl game despite finishing the season with four straight losses by an average of 25.5 points per game. The Blue Devils allowed an average of 35 points per game this season, but also scored 31.3 points per game.

Quarterback Sean Renfree of the Blue Devils has passed for 2,755 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jamison Crowder is his top target with 12 catches for 1,025 yards and eight touchdowns.

NOTES, QUOTES<!--*-->

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

--QB Brendon Kay took over as the Bearcats' starter in the third quarter on Nov. 3 against Syracuse. Kay remained in competition with Munchie Legaux until eventually earning the full-time job. Kay proved to be more adept than Legaux at throwing the deep ball, connecting on touchdown passes of 75 and 65 yards on Nov. 10 at Temple. Kay is a capable runner when it's a designed play or when hurried, but he's also a skilled pocket passer. Lack of experience might be Kay's only weakness. The bowl game will be his fifth career start, but he will face a Duke defense which allows 261.8 passing yards per game.

--LB Greg Blair stepped up his production after DE Walter Stewart was lost for the season because of a spine injury. Blair, who finished with 123 tackles, including 8 1/2 for loss and 2 1/2 sacks, quickly emerged as the emotional leader for the Bearcats' defense. Blair is active in pass coverage as well with two interceptions and six breakups. Blair will have his hands full against Blue Devils' QB Sean Renfree, who averages more than 250 yards passing per game.

--The switch to Kay at QB resulted in senior Travis Kelce having one of the best seasons of any tight end in Bearcats history. Kelce, who emerged as Kay's favored receiver, finished with 599 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 15 yards per catch, most coming after first contact. In the regular season finale, Kelce threw a touchdown pass to none other than Kay. Kelce enters the bowl game one touchdown catch shy of Cincinnati's all-time record for a tight end held by Brent Celek (2004).

--WR/RB Ralph David Abernathy IV has been somewhat of an enigma this season. Former coach Butch Jones, concerned about the diminutive Abernathy's durability, had limited his touches, particularly in the second half. But when Abernathy does get the ball, he's an explosive playmaker. He has averaged 5.3 yards per rush and 11.9 per catch. He also averages 26 yards on kick returns. The 5-foot-7, 161-pound Abernathy takes a pounding, but he's elusive enough to avoid most contact. Opponents average more than 200 yards rushing per game against Duke, so Abernathy could find some seams.

BOWL HISTORY: The Bearcats are 7-6 all-time in bowl games, including last year's 31-24 victory over Vanderbilt in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. Cincinnati is bowl eligible for the sixth time in the last seven seasons.

QUOTE TO NOTE: "You can do a lot of things with emotion and energy. We've got it here." -- Cincinnati coach Tommy Tuberville, at the press conference announcing his hiring.

STRATEGY AND PERSONNEL<!--*-->

BOWL BREAKDOWN:

Scouting the running game: The Bearcats weren't sure what they could muster on the ground after Isaiah Pead graduated to the NFL. But senior RB George Winn delivered, in more ways than one. Winn, who surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in week 10, finished with 1,235 yards and 12 touchdowns. His quiet leadership is in direct contrast to Pead's flamboyant style. But Winn and Ralph David Abernathy IV provide a foundation for the Bearcats' offense that helps jumpstart the passing game. Unlike their recent teams, which were more pass-first out of spread formations, this year's Bearcats have proven to be more efficient when they establish the run. QB Brendon Kay is an adept runner, and Abernathy is a big-play threat in space.

Scouting the passing game: Senior QB Brendon Kay will be making only his fifth career start in the Belk Bowl. Kay replaced Munchie Legaux in third quarter against Syracuse on Nov. 3 after Legaux threw six interceptions in six games. Kay provided a spark for the Bearcats that was sorely needed at that point in the season. Kay isn't as good a runner as Legaux, finishing with 230 yards and two touchdowns. But Kay's timing with receivers and his ability to hit quick strikes downfield brought a new dimension to the Bearcats' offense. Kay finished with 966 passing yards and six touchdowns. He threw touchdown passes of 75 and 65 yards in a win at Temple on Nov. 10.

Scouting the run defense: The Bearcats allowed an average of 130.2 rushing yards per game with a total of nine rushing touchdowns in the regular season. LBs Greg Blair and Maalik Bomar key Cincinnati's run stoppage with a combined 198 tackles, including 11 for losses. The loss of DE Walter Stewart because of a season-ending injury was a concern for the Bearcats, but Dan Giordano and Nick Temple, who finished fourth on the team in tackles, stepped up their production. Brandon Mills starts in Stewart's place.

Scouting the pass defense: Cincinnati's defense is at its best when it consistently pressures the quarterback. DE Walter Stewart, the Bearcats' leading pass rusher before his season-ending spine injury, was a big loss. But Dan Giordano, Nick Temple, and Greg Blair combined for 10 sacks and 16 hurries. Nickel back Adrian Witty is a preferred blitzer with three sacks on the season. Fifth-year senior Drew Frey is enjoying one of his best seasons at strong safety, with two interceptions and six pass breakups.

Scouting the special teams: The Bearcats did not have a kickoff or punt return for a touchdown this season, but they have gotten steady production in that regard. Anthony McClung and Danny Milligan both averaged nearly 10 yards per punt return. Ralph David Abernathy IV averaged 26 yards on kick returns and is a threat to break one at any moment. K Tony Miliano is accurate within 40 yards, missing only once this season. He's 15-of-20 overall, including 6-of-10 between 40 and 49 yards. P Pat O'Donnell enjoyed a solid season, averaging 42 yards in 55 punts.

Intangibles: Gone are the flamboyant personalities from last year's senior class. These Bearcats go about their business in a quiet, workmanlike fashion. This low-key business-like approach served them well this season after the Bearcats regrouped following tough losses, like the 34-31 overtime defeat at Louisville. Cincinnati is a team that overcomes adversity and plays well as a unit.



ROSTER REPORT

--WR Damon Julian, one of the Bearcats' top deep threats, sustained an ankle injury in the regular season finale at Connecticut and will miss the bowl game.

--The Bearcats offensive line allowed 13 sacks this season and helped Cincinnati rush for 200 or more yards in seven games. This despite the loss of starting RT Sean Hooey, who started the first two games before being injured. Redshirt freshman Parker Ehinger took over for Hooey and started the remaining 10 games.

--DB Trenier Orr made his first start of the season on Nov. 3 against Syracuse. But an injury ended his season. Orr's absence resulted in more playing time for freshman Kevin Brown.

--Senior DL Walter Stewart, Cincinnati's top pass rusher, was diagnosed with a cervical spine abnormality which ended his season and could jeopardize his playing career. Senior Brandon Mills replaced Stewart at left defensive tackle, followed by freshman Josh Posley on the depth chart.
 
love the Over here.. both teams may come out rusty but once they get going I doubt they will slow down
 
i havent been on looking at lines since Sunday, I log onto bookmaker and see Duke +9, must be a ton of cincy action. Or any injuries or suspensions for the line move?
 
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