Cincinnati vs. Tulsa: NCAAF Week 7 Game Picks and Predictions
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN 2) at Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Key Handicapping Strategy
We need to keep in mind that this game will come down to which team does a better job running the ball.
While Cincinnati owns the nation’s 21st-highest run-play percentage, Tulsa ranks 26th in the category.
Neither team wants to rely too heavily on the passing ability of its respective starting quarterback. Instead, each team features a collection of running backs who „carry“ primary responsibility for moving the offense forward.
Naturally, the first thing that we should want to look at is each team’s run defense stats.
The problem with this natural inclination is the following: each team’s run defense ranks quite similarly.
Also, given each team’s specific circumstances until now, it’s too early in the season to glean much from each team’s run defense rankings.
In terms of run defense, the Bearcats rank poorly because they had to contend with Army’s triple-option offense. Also, Austin Peay accumulated massive gains during garbage time in the fourth quarter.
Likewise, Tulsa’s run defense had to deal with Oklahoma State and its elite running back. Plus, it faced UCF last week, which was only its second game of the season.
It would be similarly unfair and deceptive to punish Tulsa for ranking poorly in run defense.
So what do we do?
Personnel: Tulsa
We have to dig deeper and look into the players on both defensive lines. In analyzing personnel, it emerges that one team will have a clear advantage in its run-stopping prerogative: Cincinnati.
During the offseason, the Golden Hurricane defensive line lost two starters, both stalwarts, both hard to replace.
Keep in mind that, on defense, Tulsa functions as a 3-3-5. So losing two defensive linemen means that Tulsa loses 66 percent of last year’s starters on this unit.
Trevis Gipson was one starter. He was drafted in the fifth round by the Chicago Bears.
Shemarr Robinson was the other starter on the defensive line who moved on during the offseason.
Gipson’s replacement is Cullen Wick. Wick really exemplifies the regression that Tulsa undergoes at defensive end.
Whereas Gipson accrued 15 tackles for loss last season, Wick still has zero. Wick, who was Gipson's backup last year, is nowhere near the disruptive force that Gipson was.
At nose guard, the main problem is depth. There is little of it and the depth that the Golden Hurricanes bring at this position remains very young, green, and unproven.
In terms of personnel, Tulsa’s run defense looks vulnerable because of its deficiencies on the defensive line. Its linebacking corps also tries to regroup after losing two starters.
Cincinnati’s Superior Run Defense Personnel
Compared to Tulsa’s, Cincinnati’s defensive line looks stacked with depth and quality.
Two defensive linemen earned spots on Athlon’s All-AAC Preseason First Team: Elijah Ponder and Myjai Sanders.
Ponder was also an All-AAC first-team honoree. The Bearcat defensive tackle specializes in stopping the run as evidenced, partly, by his 7.5 tackles for loss last season.
At the end position, Sanders is a disruptive force with his length and skill set. He’s leading the team with four tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
Sanders was and is a consistent, game-by-game force who will reliably win his battles in the trenches.
A perusal of the team’s defensive line depth chart shows a lot of proven producers who are reliably disruptive and aren’t even starters.
At linebacker, Jarell White is another force who’s earned preseason accolades as well as 2020 weekly honors.
He stood out for his run-stopping ability by amassing 15 tackles against Army’s difficult option run game.
Cincinnati Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
The Bearcat offensive scheme is distinguished with its variety both in play-calling and personnel.
Cincinnati will showcase everything: four-to-five wide receiver sets, bunch formations, options, tempo, non-tempo, and so forth.
Starting running back Gerrid Doaks is coming off a 100-yard rushing effort on 22 carries last week against South Florida.
While he enjoys plenty of depth behind him, one can’t discount the running ability of quarterback Desmond Ridder, who averages 4.7 YPC.
As evident by completion percentage, for example, Ridder has improved his accuracy and efficiency as a passer.
It helps him that he has a number of very able pass-catchers to throw to.
One of those is Doaks who has 130 receiving yards off of six receptions with his big-play ability.
He exemplifies the versatility, the pass-catching prowess of Cincinnati running backs that makes them more multivalent in their production than Tulsa’s.
Tulsa’s lack of depth on the defensive line will be exploited by the Bearcats’ depth at running back while Tulsa’s loss of two starters both at the linebacker and safety positions damage their chances against the Bearcats’ extended pass-catching options particularly out of the backfield.
The Verdict
I get that Tulsa is a sexy betting option after its upset win last week.
But the Bearcats will more than double the short spread with its prowess on the ground, its high-quality range of ability in the trenches on defense, and with its versatility in scheme and passing.
Best Bet: Bearcats -4 at -110 with Bovada
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN 2) at Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Key Handicapping Strategy
We need to keep in mind that this game will come down to which team does a better job running the ball.
While Cincinnati owns the nation’s 21st-highest run-play percentage, Tulsa ranks 26th in the category.
Neither team wants to rely too heavily on the passing ability of its respective starting quarterback. Instead, each team features a collection of running backs who „carry“ primary responsibility for moving the offense forward.
Naturally, the first thing that we should want to look at is each team’s run defense stats.
The problem with this natural inclination is the following: each team’s run defense ranks quite similarly.
Also, given each team’s specific circumstances until now, it’s too early in the season to glean much from each team’s run defense rankings.
In terms of run defense, the Bearcats rank poorly because they had to contend with Army’s triple-option offense. Also, Austin Peay accumulated massive gains during garbage time in the fourth quarter.
Likewise, Tulsa’s run defense had to deal with Oklahoma State and its elite running back. Plus, it faced UCF last week, which was only its second game of the season.
It would be similarly unfair and deceptive to punish Tulsa for ranking poorly in run defense.
So what do we do?
Personnel: Tulsa
We have to dig deeper and look into the players on both defensive lines. In analyzing personnel, it emerges that one team will have a clear advantage in its run-stopping prerogative: Cincinnati.
During the offseason, the Golden Hurricane defensive line lost two starters, both stalwarts, both hard to replace.
Keep in mind that, on defense, Tulsa functions as a 3-3-5. So losing two defensive linemen means that Tulsa loses 66 percent of last year’s starters on this unit.
Trevis Gipson was one starter. He was drafted in the fifth round by the Chicago Bears.
Shemarr Robinson was the other starter on the defensive line who moved on during the offseason.
Gipson’s replacement is Cullen Wick. Wick really exemplifies the regression that Tulsa undergoes at defensive end.
Whereas Gipson accrued 15 tackles for loss last season, Wick still has zero. Wick, who was Gipson's backup last year, is nowhere near the disruptive force that Gipson was.
At nose guard, the main problem is depth. There is little of it and the depth that the Golden Hurricanes bring at this position remains very young, green, and unproven.
In terms of personnel, Tulsa’s run defense looks vulnerable because of its deficiencies on the defensive line. Its linebacking corps also tries to regroup after losing two starters.
Cincinnati’s Superior Run Defense Personnel
Compared to Tulsa’s, Cincinnati’s defensive line looks stacked with depth and quality.
Two defensive linemen earned spots on Athlon’s All-AAC Preseason First Team: Elijah Ponder and Myjai Sanders.
Ponder was also an All-AAC first-team honoree. The Bearcat defensive tackle specializes in stopping the run as evidenced, partly, by his 7.5 tackles for loss last season.
At the end position, Sanders is a disruptive force with his length and skill set. He’s leading the team with four tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
Sanders was and is a consistent, game-by-game force who will reliably win his battles in the trenches.
A perusal of the team’s defensive line depth chart shows a lot of proven producers who are reliably disruptive and aren’t even starters.
At linebacker, Jarell White is another force who’s earned preseason accolades as well as 2020 weekly honors.
He stood out for his run-stopping ability by amassing 15 tackles against Army’s difficult option run game.
Cincinnati Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
The Bearcat offensive scheme is distinguished with its variety both in play-calling and personnel.
Cincinnati will showcase everything: four-to-five wide receiver sets, bunch formations, options, tempo, non-tempo, and so forth.
Starting running back Gerrid Doaks is coming off a 100-yard rushing effort on 22 carries last week against South Florida.
While he enjoys plenty of depth behind him, one can’t discount the running ability of quarterback Desmond Ridder, who averages 4.7 YPC.
As evident by completion percentage, for example, Ridder has improved his accuracy and efficiency as a passer.
It helps him that he has a number of very able pass-catchers to throw to.
One of those is Doaks who has 130 receiving yards off of six receptions with his big-play ability.
He exemplifies the versatility, the pass-catching prowess of Cincinnati running backs that makes them more multivalent in their production than Tulsa’s.
Tulsa’s lack of depth on the defensive line will be exploited by the Bearcats’ depth at running back while Tulsa’s loss of two starters both at the linebacker and safety positions damage their chances against the Bearcats’ extended pass-catching options particularly out of the backfield.
The Verdict
I get that Tulsa is a sexy betting option after its upset win last week.
But the Bearcats will more than double the short spread with its prowess on the ground, its high-quality range of ability in the trenches on defense, and with its versatility in scheme and passing.
Best Bet: Bearcats -4 at -110 with Bovada
