Christmas NFL Style

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Well most importantly a Merry Christmas to all those associated with CTG and a Happy Holidays as well(lil late 4 some)...

Well real disappointed showing in my showing on Sunday. Really overthought about 3 totals Over in SF and Den as well as Under in TB...plus the dreaded 4 line moves that I should have been scared by that I already mentioned 1000 times...7-5 on sides(really 5-5 small win on Carolina and had Bears 1st Half) should have been much better...all in I lost about 2 1/2 units....basically viggorish.....

Thanks Believe 811 for thoughts and Merry XMas bro!

Philadelphia @ Dallas

We have the rejuvanted Eagles winners of 3 straight traveling to Dallas on XMas day. For Philly there are in the tough spot of playing there THIRD straight Divsional road game and also 4th away game in 5 weeks. They defeated Dallas earlier in the season at home when Bledsoe was picked in the end zone and it went 100 yards the other way , instead of a TIE we had a 2 TD final margin! Alot has changed since that meeting namely both starting QB's....does anyone know the last time or even Jeff Garcia's games versus the 3-4 defense??? This appears to be his first start vs a 3-4 this year....

Now I do know the last time Garcia traveled to BIG D was as a Brown on Sept 19 , 2004 he went 8 for 27 with 3 INT's & 71 yards!! That would be a negative in my book. At home Brian Westbrook could not run against this DAL D with 11 carries for 33 yards. Actually in 8 games vs DAL his best is 16 c for 86 yards in the 2nd meeting last season. The past 2 years he had 6 carries 12 yds and 15 carries for 56 yards in Big D...Now the DAL D is struggling last 3 but even with those struggles they still only allow about 4 YPC at home. If you look at the past 3 games though on ly the Saints back had real success running it Dunn had 56 yards and Tiki 90 on 23 carries...

So we have Philly really in a bad situation as far as the traveling goes. Now how bout there 3 wins and 1 loss. Well the loss lets not forget they were +10 in Indy and failed to cover . If you REMEMBER I said way back when that when Indy travled to Big D that those teams were basically equal in strength in regards to setting lines...simply put neutral field they would have been a PK...which is why I thought a PK in Dallas was very cheap and played Dallas. Anyway so based on that we could make a case that Dallas should be in the -10 range rather then -7 range...We also should remember that Philly on MNF was a home dog and squeaked off a victory as Delhomme was picked in the end zone for what would have been the go ahead TD. They allowed 24 pts at home to Carolina and 377 yds on 60 plays...not a very good defensive effort especially after the 40 + @ Indy. Then they travel to Wash and allow 400 + yards and 177 yds rushing!!! Only 19 points but you can see how it could have been more and again a young Skins offense..( at least unproven if not young) BUT worse is the only managed about 260 yards of offense..Last week in NY they needed a big 4th quarter to pull ahead and away from the Giants...at least they outgained them 382 -368...

Now NYG are -1 in Wash this week and Philly was only -2 in Wash and Pushed....what would Dallas be in Wash now that Portis and Brunell are out of the picture...they were -3 for that ...the fact that Dal was -3 in NY means -6 on neutral field so you could see how Dallas today might be about -6 in Washington which would make the Boyz a good 4 or 5 pts stronger then Philly...or 7 to 8.5 pt favs in Dal. Now also remember that while DAL was -3 in NY the Eagles were just +5.5 in NY!!!!!! Some difference in how these teams are viewed in terms of line strength.

Now the main weakness has been Dallas vs the pass especially the deep ball. Well Garcia is a West coast offense veteran which generally means strong arm not his strongest quality as a QB. Now another angle that makes a line 0f -7 very fair is the fact that even with McNabb they were a PK in Philly....Bledsoe was awful in that game with 3 picks and Marion Barber really hadnt emereged like he has past few weeks...Now look at DAL with Romo -1 vs Indy compared to +10 @ Indy for Philly , -13 vs Bucs , -3.5 @ Atlanta , while they lost they were -7.5 to NO...Sainst are a better team then Philly for sure!

keep in mind Addai had 171 yards then Betts followed it up with 177....Barber and Jones are quite a duo! They should have no problem running the ball...(they were -152 and -120 in rushing yds in those games). The NYG only had 22 carries for 87 yards which is decent especially with OL injuries...

Terrell Owens fresh off a Pro Bowl snub had only 3 receptions for 45 yards in the 1st meeting and now has Garcia to add fuel to the fire.

Scary stat past 2 games Dallas has allowed 9 TD passes including the FOUR Michael Vick had!

Basically the Dallas PASS DEFENSE has really slipped recently but is Garcia the guy to take advantage of it especially not seeing a 3-4 yet?? If Westbrook's struggles continue vs Dallas how does the offense produce enough to win?? As I pointed out the Eagles D has not played very well past 4 games...Colts had 45!! the Giants did everything possible tolose that game and scored 22 points..pick 6's , Int's , fumbles you name it..the NYG had 4 turnovers...the game was really a coin flip but the G-Men could not overcome the timely and costly turnovers ...141 pts allowed last 5 to Tenny , carolina , Indy , Wash and NYG...we know DALLAS has an explosive offense.....


Right now with the line showing Dallas -7 +102 I have a huge , heavy lean that way since I dont see Phillys D being able to slow the Boys down. Also looking at Dal ov 27.5 -105 team total....naturally I would like to see the lien fall further in my favor.....
 
If we examine the past 3 Eagles games (3 HUGE wins to allow them to control their own destiny right now), we see they have forced 2,2, and 4 turnovers respectively. Against Carolina, an int to end the game. Against Washington a HUGE int for a td. Against NYG, an int for a td and a HUGE game by B Dawk. In the 6 games before the winning stretch, a stretch in which they went 1-5, we see they forced 0, 1, 1, 1, 1 respectively. You're looking a re-vamped Defense here. These guys are making plays in crucial times.

So, I'm betting on Garcia? Yep...He's a vet who has seen it all. At Dallas on XMAS day for the division...He understands exactly what to expect.

You're betting on Romo? An un-proven QB who has yet to play in a game this big.
 
As for the line, I don't factor it into play today. As of right now, action is pretty balanced. And the line is staying pat. Of course, we'll have to see what tomorrow brings.
 
As for Philly Offense vs Dallas D...

I went back and looked at the Dallas final scores. We notice in their 5 loses, they have given up over 20 points in EVERY loss. 24, 38, 36, 22, and 42 respectively. In their 9 wins, they only allowed over 20 points twice. The 2 times they did, they allowed exactly 20 to NYG and 28 to ATL.

In Garcia's 4 starts, Philly is averaging 26 PPG.

You can make an argument that Dallas struggles vs. high scoring oppositions. And 26ppg is something that should be feared!
 
I'd like to see the lein fall more in your favor, too, SN. I'm a big believer in owning real estate.

Those are some pretty impressive numbers and they're tough to argue with. But let me throw out some reasons why you might not want to jump on Dallas with both feet.

All lines aside, Dallas is below .500 in the division at 2-3 with Romo at 1-1. You can say, 'but, but, Nick Novak, an' all that, but a loss is a loss.' Meanwhile, the Eagles are 4-1 vs. those same teams and Garcia is 2-0 in both his games, both on the road.

Now, I don't want to excuse what the Eagles have done against like competiton, because they haven't played well. Nor do I want to make the excuse that some motherf**king AFC team comes into Philly every year as a seven point dog and beats the godamn Birds outright. Not that I'm bitter about it, but it's the truth.

Still, if you look at what Garcia has been able to do once he's righted the ship you see a couple of things. First, I don't excuse the Colts' game, but the Colts are the AFC's version of the Eagles, only everything's better in the AFC so whereas the Eagles are working with Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis, Indy's working with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne on a fast track.

But even in that game you see a totally different Eagle team than the one that was there under Donovan. They run more, they run effectively, and they sustain drives. In fact, the more they do it, the more they start to remind you of another team that has the same kind of QB play, and that's New Orleans.

That Dallas/NO game was filled from top to bottom with Brees getting time and making good decisions. Well, the Eagles' line is completely healthy and Garcia's been making good decisions for weeks now.

Add to that that not only wasn't Buckhalter really featured in the first Dallas game, Donte Stallworth didn't even play and I think this Eagles' offense is enough to keep them with Dallas, especially the way their defense has played lately.

Dallas' defense over the last few weeks has sort of reminded me of what Denver's defense does every year. They start out great, and everybody jumps on their bandwagon. Then about seven games in somebody figures them out, or they have an injury, and they give up 30. And everybody says it's a blip, that they had a bad game, and five weeks later everybody's wondering why Denver gives up 27 a game.

I think people are chasing this Dallas defense a bit, waiting for it to come back to what it was, or could have been, and yet Ellis is out, theyr'e getting beaten, and there's no reason to think they won't give up their points.

On the other side of the ball, Romo these last couple of games has looked a lot like Phillip Rivers as the season's gotten tighter. Some great throws, but also many drives where he looks a little confused and lost.

You can talk about Garcia facing a 3-4 tomorrow, but Garcia's 36, he's seen it all at this point. How about Romo never seeing a Jim Johnson defense in person before? That's nothing nice.

My personal feeling is if Dallas really commits to the run. I mean over 35 carries, closer to 45 combined between Barber and Jones, they should win this game. But if they try to beat the Birds through the air, I think this game goes either way and it will be decided by the number of turnovers Romo has.

Either way, I think this Eagle team is all emotion right now and they're getting it done. Hostile environment, everything against 'em, I really think this is exactly how they want it. This is a team that's made things hard for themselves all year and it gets no more difficult than tomorrow.

We'll see, and while I understand the number, I took 7.5 when it was bet up to that and I've got a piece of that ML, too, because over +250 with this team I can't pass up.

I'm sure we'll be on opposite sides here, but I wish you luck anyway. After all, it's Christmas.
 
Believe makes a good point and let me sum it up, if the Eagles win the turnover battle by two or more tomorrow, they will win the game.

Also, don't underestimate the many motivational aspects for Garcia here tomorrow.
 
Its great they forced turnovers vs NYG , Wash and Carolina how many wins do those teams have in the past 6 weeks?? NYG 1-6 last 7and beat Car , Car 1-4 and beat ATL , Wash is 2-4...you cant even make an arguement for how these teams are in Dallas class...Romo hasnt played a big game ?? What about Indy ...how bout 4 Primetime games already??

Just cant agree with ya...Philly is smoke and mirrors to me....needing defensive stops vs Car and Was says enough...
 
A loss is a loss...true but at that time dallas laying -3 in Wash was you guessed a bad line(should have been PK or-1)...and yes I was on Wash that day. What we take away from the game was it was a fluke and DAL out played them clearly..

Stallworth has disappeared in road games...and Westbrook has never run on Dallas even with Philly owning the series . So simply committing to the run is going to make him gain yards??

Garcia has seen everything and my point wasnt he would be confused but rather could he be ineffective? Based on his ability to this particular weakness the secondary....

The whole point I think being missed is I agree Garcia playing well but could they have faced 3 easier opponents?? The fact Philly won in Wash and Dallas lost is PERCEPTION...Dallas clearly played better then Philly did but one team won and the other lost...The whole reason IMO Philly is playing well cause there opponents stink...Skins are the best of the bunch....The Dallas defense is suffering no doubt but its the pass defense primarily and for all of Vicks shortcomings its not arm strength.....

This is Cincy going to Indy all over again...

You make alot of great points .....the bottomline is the line which seems high at 7 really is low.....IMO
 
keep firing away but I need some sleep and I will take the Miami/ NYJ game to task tmrw.....

These are only my opinions....see everyone in the AM!! Merry Christmas!
 
Sports, that's the write up I was looking for. I see alot of people riding the Eagles in this game in the CTG. Something tells me there may be alot of points in this game, I would like to see Dallas get some explosiveness going and get some points of the turnover once that occurs I think Philly will have a hard time catching up and while trying to may force some more turnovers making thier game plan very difficult.
Go STARS!!!
 
Have you checked week 17 lines.. Interesting games

Titans - 3 vs Pats
I kind of like the bucs to win su as well.. as long as sea has everything locked up
 
abcs said:
Have you checked week 17 lines.. Interesting games

Titans - 3 vs Pats
I kind of like the bucs to win su as well.. as long as sea has everything locked up
Click to expand...

Actually I have somewhat...My problem understanding what situatiosn teams are in...Not a problem I just have not gone over the scenarios just yet. One that really stood out was actually Sea +3 +120...if Sea starts Wallace and Morris those guys had a lot of time this year and it wouldnt be the annual week 17 give up game it appears to be...TB as favs over anyone...they still cant score?? STL -1 is crazy but Jackson can he improve enough to put points up??

Generally I havent really done much more then looked...Tenny is ona quite a run and NE motivation needs to be checked here...

Maybe later tonite I will start diving in......
 
MX_259 said:
Sports, that's the write up I was looking for. I see alot of people riding the Eagles in this game in the CTG. Something tells me there may be alot of points in this game, I would like to see Dallas get some explosiveness going and get some points of the turnover once that occurs I think Philly will have a hard time catching up and while trying to may force some more turnovers making thier game plan very difficult.
Go STARS!!!
Click to expand...

I always try to have an understanding what the line should be and how perception becomes involved...Anyway Week 17 we have OPhilly hosting Atl lay -6.5 which basically says that they are about 3 pts better then ATL..this is after ATL bombed at home to Carolina...well it also means that they would probably be a PK if the game was in ATL...well as I said Dal was -3.5 in ATL and covered...so that would make them a good 3.5 to 4 pts better then Philly on a neutral field and around 7 pt favs in Dallas......which not suprisingly is where the line is.....today...

I think Philly has shown it will struggle to go toe to toe with an explosive offense....reall expect a 28-31 pt DAL effort here...

BOL & Merry XMas
 
So with the Early NFL Game it only seems to be a matter of how big I play Dallas and if I go over 47.5 or Over Dallas 27.5 -105.....stay tuned I'll be back shortly......Really looking at a Large , XLarge or XLarge ++ type play...
 
Also remember that primetime games point spreads tend be useless. Either a Fav wins and covers or the dog is a SU winner.....

Plays: (I am holding out though for better numbers and even buy -6.5)

Cowboys -7 +102 (XLarge )
Over 27.5 +101 Dallas team (Medium)
 
Last edited:
My book is showing 6.5 ... I think you'll get your 6.5 without a buy

GL ... Want your opinion on NYJ/Mia ... I'll discuss that later if you're around.
 
Played :

Dallas Cowboys -6.5 -103 (XLarge) will be adding another play to this
Over 27.5 +101 Dallas team (Medium)
 
BeLIEve811 said:
My book is showing 6.5 ... I think you'll get your 6.5 without a buy

GL ... Want your opinion on NYJ/Mia ... I'll discuss that later if you're around.
Click to expand...

yeah just saw it thanks...I will be around prob about 6 Pm and after...sneaking away before kickoff...Going back ND FORTH UP AND DOWN ON THIS DAMN GAME...leaning Phins maybe a team over Miami as well or game over...

I know we differ on this game @ 5 but GL anyways...
 
Well real disgusted with The Boys - Eagles game as Dallas drove the ball downfield twice early and blew both chances...3 attempts from the 1?? I hate when teams go for it on the 4th and goal from the 1.....its so deflating to walk away empty handed ...much worse then having to start inside your own 1....sports are all about momentum....1st drive the are moving it with no prob and stall at the Philly 40...rather see you go for there then after blowing 2 chances on the 1.....Dallas is just flat and really I question their heart....bottomline is they peaked weeks ago and Philly while they dont impress me doesnt beat themselves...and deserve credit for that....DAL had more then there share of chances tonite....should have buried the 2nd H eagle line.....tough to do when you already highly involved....

With the late game I have to like the home team here. I watched the 1st meeting and Miami was struggling at the end of 3 straight away and NY could not muster any offense two busted plays for long Coles today who seems to be hurting...

Its obvious who has the best defense in this game is. Think Miami allows 60 yards less then NY and gains 10 more on offense in the respective situations...

Bottomline for me is despite recent success vs Miami can these Jets win two straight away when they were dogged?? Look at the fact they were small dogs in Cle and GB...they were 3 pt dogs in Minny ....they should be 3 pt dogs here so some value...but arent cause of the fact Miami was shutout but teams who get shutout away and return home tend to bounce back...

Ronnie Brown had success in the 1st meeting and will get some carries here along with Sammy Morris. The NYJ run defense allows 4.8 YPC on the road. Thats the key in this game....

Minny , KC and NE all lost here recently...who has NY really defeated away...Minny , GB...?? teams who are dreadful at times...

To me a fair line is -3 so anything varying presents value ......

I am kinda burnt out so I really cant convoy my thoughts clearly....I see Miami with every edge here outside of past history...

Phins -2.5 -110 (XLarge)
Over 20 +110 Miami (Medium)


Congrats Philly Nation they played hard and deserve this ....Fucking ROmo thinks he's a playboy now...fucking kidding me flirting with a girl on the field...real professional...we know what his priorites are.....
 
When was romo fliriting with a girl? I must have missed that.. that was before the game with underwood..Blame the cowboys defense, TO for dropping passes, and the shitty run game. I thought romo played well
 
Yeah on field in pre-game...Madden's like I would have a big problem with that...Dallas didnt show up it was a total team failure....bad coaching on those 1st drives , Romo's overconfidence , TO dropping another big pass...and really ist been teh shitty OL cause Romo has taken some shots from a team with little pash rush...Cole and ??
 
Congrats Philly Nation they played hard and deserve this.

Thanks, SN.

Merry Christmas to all and to all, Go Birds.

=)
 
I think it was a great feat to win 3 consecutive weeks in a divisonal opponents stadium...I just dont get Dallas...I think I had that Indy game entrenched in my head...so focused and so crisp....no one played well on that side and Philly did what it does best..move the chains and dont turn it over....Alot of the game early I was ctahcing a play here a play there but damn if I didnt think they were going score on the opening drive...Wish I had no conscience and went Philly 2nd H to wash out my regular plays...I really expected a flat Eagle team....like I say though even when a team wins unimpressively you have to be careful cause it breeds momentum....

Add:

Phins -2.5 -105 (Medium)
 
Yeah, the only 'I told you so' that I'll come close to is the 'flat' thing. There was no way they were coming out flat today. The problem for the Cowboys was two-fold, one, they were out-coached, and two, they were beaten on the line of scrimmage. The first didn't totally shock me, again, because of the Romo vs. Jim Johnson angle. But the second did. I thought the Cowboys would be more up for the game than they were.

I did learn something very interesting about the Cowboys today, something I suppose I should have known a long time ago. They might be the most arrogant team in the league--and it's a baseless arrogance, too. It starts at the top, with both Jones and Parcells, but it carries through and bringing in a guy like T.O. didn't help.

Before the game Ed Werder on ESPN said he talked to Tony Romo last night and Romo said the Cowboys planned to throw right into the heart of the Eagles and go right at Brian Dawkins.

That's like saying, "we have a rookie RB and FB, but we're going to run off-tackle on the Steelers." It's just stupid, and it's arrogant. People say, 'oh, the Eagles' secondary is undersized and weak,' but that's all bulls**t. The secondary is the heart of that defense and I'm not sure a secondary they're second to in the league. Maybe the Bears, healthy, or Baltimore, but that's about it.

The Cowboys didn't take the Eagles seriously today and the Eagles proved that they are the better team. Period. And what's odd about that is that so much of it was effort because talent-wise they're very close and, quite likely, the Cowboys are more talented in more spots. But they got doubled up in effort today and that's why they lost. And when you look back on the game, you see where it happened, it happened on the goalline, where again the Cowboys didn't do their homework because on the goalline the Eagles are very good and you do not run right at them.

But, hey, as an Eagle fan I'm glad the Cowboys didn't put in the work, that's fine with me.
 
JP ,

By flat I meant not so much emotionally as Dallas was , more due to circumstance. I think thats the most impressive feat winnning 3 straight on the road in the division on top of a MNF game and SNF game in Indy. Its been a hectic month for them and maybe drained was a better word due to such tough games...its not like they cruised vs Wash or NYG those were games that were decided very late in the 4th Q. You figured at some point it would catch up.

Absoluetly agree with the arrogance comments. Especially when a team says hey we are going after someones best defensive weapon. That is foolish. Its a hectic day and I cant kick myself for much but I would have liked to have seen Romo flirting with Underwood abit earlier. To me that showed me what that guy was all about. Your a NFL QB and part of your pregame is talking to some chick? I look at is MLB SP's dont want to talk the media usually on days they pitch and here you have your QB looking to score! What is he thinking.( I know whst he is thinking but wrong time , wrong place).I dont think the JJ factor was very evident though. Bad play calling stopped the first drives which should have netted 10 pts at least....I think the line scrimmage comments is really what killed Dal. Bottomline is Philly took care of business...and DAL just feels they can show up and win....I learned to stay away from the Boys till we see a better spot....


Side note a nice indicator was Miami being favored by -2.5 -114 in a scoreless game cause that was higher then the closing line....
 
BeLIEve811 said:
2h jets got POUNDED 2h...Ended up +1.5
Click to expand...

Regardless of why it looks like its cause they got word Cleo Lemon was getting involved....probably just a line adjustment but still I am stuck riding out Miami with an unproven QB....yeah! Thanks bro...4 the heads up
 
I hear you. And not to belittle what they did, but again, thankfully for them their roadtrips weren't very far. You almost don't get closer than NY and Washington. I actually think going to Pittsburgh would have been further and it's, techincally, in the same state. That's why that 'three on the road' was a little misleading, but the divison thing wasn't so I could totally see where you'd get the exhausted angle.

I think the Jim Johnson thing was more a part of things than people will know. This is really only the second time that Romo hasn't looked comfortable back there and, again, he had two INTs. The first one Dawkins just beat him on by not buying the play fake and staying home, the second Lito just played it well. And, early on, in their first drive, I think it was Sheldon who jumped a route and knocked down a third down pass.

The Eagles were just in great position defensively all night, their blitzes, for the most part, were all well timed and were only beaten like two or three times. Their stepping up against the run also forced Romo to throw and even though that was their plan, I can't believe they were all that happy about it seeing as how, as the game went on, the Cowboys got fewer and fewer yards.

The thing to know about the Eagles going forward is that, with Garcia, they are very much like the Saints only with a better secondary. They have a QB who may not kill you with the big play like Donovan, but he will take short stuff and sustain drives very well. He's good for one bad INT a game (the one in Washington was dropped) and he has a balanced running game with him and it looks like if you can't score over 20 points, you're not going to be beating them without a lot of help.
 
Regardless of why it looks like its cause they got word Cleo Lemon was getting involved

Yeah, I feel for you on this one, SN, I saw Lemon come in and just shook my head for those with Dolphins tickets. Good luck, though.
 
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