NBA Best Bets & Props for Christmas: Boston Is A Three-Point Shooting Machine
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
Monday, December 25, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
How To Beat Golden State
Defensively, Golden State's weakness is guarding the perimeter.
The Warriors aren't bad at defending threes, but making threes is the best way to beat them.
For example, in their last loss, they allowed the Clippers to make 13 threes. L.A. converted 40.6 percent of its three-point attempts.
Likewise, in Golden State's second-to-last loss, the Suns made 14 three-pointers.
The list continues. Therefore, in order to expect a team to beat Golden State, we should expect that team to be able to rely on making threes.
Denver's Offense
The Nuggets can't be expected to beat the Warriors because they don't like to shoot threes.
They attempt the fifth-fewest three-pointers per game.
Denver does have a high-volume three-point shooter in Michael Porter Jr.
But he is an exception. Anyhow, after two straight efficient three-point shooting performances, he might be due to cool off, because he hasn't made over half of his three-point attempts in three straight games all season.
What Denver Wants To Do
On offense, Denver primarily wants to score at the basket.
It attempts the fourth-most shots within five feet of the basket.
Denver will try to rely especially on the inside scoring of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic.
Golden State's Defensive Strength
I like the Warriors to limit Denver's scoring because their strength on defense makes them well-equipped to make the Nuggets uncomfortable on offense.
The Nuggets won't be able to score much in the way that they want to because the Warriors excel at protecting the rim.
Golden State allows the third-fewest field goals made within five feet of the basket.
The Warriors like to clog the paint, forcing players to contend with a lot of arms and bodies if they are set on scoring at the basket.
They also rely on valuable individual defenders.
For example, center Trayce Jackson-Davis is making an immediate impact on defense.
Golden State will position him in drop coverage where he limits opposing efficiency in front of the basket.
He is also useful as a smart help-side defender.
Golden State on Offense
On offense, the Warriors are well-known for their proclivity to shoot threes.
They want to rely, of course, on superstar Steph Curry, but other players likewise enjoy taking a lot of threes.
In order to limit Golden State's scoring, it is imperative to defend the perimeter well.
Denver's Defensive Strength
I like the Nuggets to limit Golden State's scoring because they excel at limiting opposing scoring from behind the arc.
Denver allows the third-fewest wide-open three-point attempts and ranks among the league's better teams at limiting open three-point attempts.
Moreover, the Nuggets allow the third-fewest three-point attempts overall.
These numbers indicate that the Nuggets thrive at running opposing players off the three-point line and at contesting their three-point attempts.
One player worth mentioning is Gordon, who has destroyed his initial reputation as a poor defender.
He is now graded most highly as an isolated defender guarding the perimeter. He easily holds his own.
Takeaway
Both teams have specific ways in which they prefer to score, but both defenses are well-equipped to stop them.
This will be a low-scoring game in which both offenses struggle to put up points.
Best Bet: Under 233.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Monday, December 25, 2023 at 5 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
Boston On The Road
The Celtics are favored by only three points because they are playing on the road.
But playing on the road doesn't seem to bother them at the moment.
In their last two road games, they beat the Kings by 25 and the Clippers by 37.
Boston On Offense
The Celtics are primed to score a lot of points again on Monday -- they've exceeded 140 points in each of their last two games -- because they will be comfortable on offense.
On offense, they like to shoot threes.
They attempt the most three-pointers per game.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White are among Boston's high-volume three-point shooters.
Shooting threes is an effective means of scoring for Boston because it is good at scoring in this way: the Celtics rank eighth in three-point percentage.
They have scorers like Tatum who love to operate in isolation.
But they'll also exploit slow rotations and mismatches perhaps by driving inside in order to kick the ball back out.
Defenses that do a poor job of preventing three-pointers will certainly be more vulnerable to Boston.
Lakers' Vulnerable Perimeter Defense
I like the Celtics to score a lot because they'll be able to make a lot of more easily makeable threes against L.A.'s defense.
The Lakers allow the most wide-open three-point attempts per game.
They also rank sixth-worst at limiting opposing three-point attempts per game.
Teams, even ones that are less proficient at three-point shooting than Boston, are able to get plenty favorable looks from deep.
L.A.'s One-Dimensional Offense
Whereas Boston has guys like Tatum who are efficient inside scorers, the Lakers are one-dimensional on offense.
They are disinclined to shoot threes and for good reason -- they rank 25th in three-point percentage.
Instead, the Lakers want to score at the basket.
L.A. attempts the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James are especially inclined to score at the basket.
Boston's Defense
Boston will limit L.A.'s scoring because it boasts excellent rim protection.
Derrick White and especially Kristaps Porzingis are doing a great job of keeping opponents from scoring at the basket.
Porzingis is sometimes looked down upon by NBA fans, but the stats and video footage don't lie.
He is great at positioning himself in front of opposing scorers and timing his blocks.
He is one reason why Boston allows the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Boston wants to shoot threes and L.A. wants to score at the basket.
The Celtics will win because they'll comfortably shoot threes, whereas the Lakers will struggle against Boston's rim protection.
Best Bet: Celtics -3 at -107 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
Monday, December 25, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
How To Beat Golden State
Defensively, Golden State's weakness is guarding the perimeter.
The Warriors aren't bad at defending threes, but making threes is the best way to beat them.
For example, in their last loss, they allowed the Clippers to make 13 threes. L.A. converted 40.6 percent of its three-point attempts.
Likewise, in Golden State's second-to-last loss, the Suns made 14 three-pointers.
The list continues. Therefore, in order to expect a team to beat Golden State, we should expect that team to be able to rely on making threes.
Denver's Offense
The Nuggets can't be expected to beat the Warriors because they don't like to shoot threes.
They attempt the fifth-fewest three-pointers per game.
Denver does have a high-volume three-point shooter in Michael Porter Jr.
But he is an exception. Anyhow, after two straight efficient three-point shooting performances, he might be due to cool off, because he hasn't made over half of his three-point attempts in three straight games all season.
What Denver Wants To Do
On offense, Denver primarily wants to score at the basket.
It attempts the fourth-most shots within five feet of the basket.
Denver will try to rely especially on the inside scoring of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic.
Golden State's Defensive Strength
I like the Warriors to limit Denver's scoring because their strength on defense makes them well-equipped to make the Nuggets uncomfortable on offense.
The Nuggets won't be able to score much in the way that they want to because the Warriors excel at protecting the rim.
Golden State allows the third-fewest field goals made within five feet of the basket.
The Warriors like to clog the paint, forcing players to contend with a lot of arms and bodies if they are set on scoring at the basket.
They also rely on valuable individual defenders.
For example, center Trayce Jackson-Davis is making an immediate impact on defense.
Golden State will position him in drop coverage where he limits opposing efficiency in front of the basket.
He is also useful as a smart help-side defender.
Golden State on Offense
On offense, the Warriors are well-known for their proclivity to shoot threes.
They want to rely, of course, on superstar Steph Curry, but other players likewise enjoy taking a lot of threes.
In order to limit Golden State's scoring, it is imperative to defend the perimeter well.
Denver's Defensive Strength
I like the Nuggets to limit Golden State's scoring because they excel at limiting opposing scoring from behind the arc.
Denver allows the third-fewest wide-open three-point attempts and ranks among the league's better teams at limiting open three-point attempts.
Moreover, the Nuggets allow the third-fewest three-point attempts overall.
These numbers indicate that the Nuggets thrive at running opposing players off the three-point line and at contesting their three-point attempts.
One player worth mentioning is Gordon, who has destroyed his initial reputation as a poor defender.
He is now graded most highly as an isolated defender guarding the perimeter. He easily holds his own.
Takeaway
Both teams have specific ways in which they prefer to score, but both defenses are well-equipped to stop them.
This will be a low-scoring game in which both offenses struggle to put up points.
Best Bet: Under 233.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Monday, December 25, 2023 at 5 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
Boston On The Road
The Celtics are favored by only three points because they are playing on the road.
But playing on the road doesn't seem to bother them at the moment.
In their last two road games, they beat the Kings by 25 and the Clippers by 37.
Boston On Offense
The Celtics are primed to score a lot of points again on Monday -- they've exceeded 140 points in each of their last two games -- because they will be comfortable on offense.
On offense, they like to shoot threes.
They attempt the most three-pointers per game.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White are among Boston's high-volume three-point shooters.
Shooting threes is an effective means of scoring for Boston because it is good at scoring in this way: the Celtics rank eighth in three-point percentage.
They have scorers like Tatum who love to operate in isolation.
But they'll also exploit slow rotations and mismatches perhaps by driving inside in order to kick the ball back out.
Defenses that do a poor job of preventing three-pointers will certainly be more vulnerable to Boston.
Lakers' Vulnerable Perimeter Defense
I like the Celtics to score a lot because they'll be able to make a lot of more easily makeable threes against L.A.'s defense.
The Lakers allow the most wide-open three-point attempts per game.
They also rank sixth-worst at limiting opposing three-point attempts per game.
Teams, even ones that are less proficient at three-point shooting than Boston, are able to get plenty favorable looks from deep.
L.A.'s One-Dimensional Offense
Whereas Boston has guys like Tatum who are efficient inside scorers, the Lakers are one-dimensional on offense.
They are disinclined to shoot threes and for good reason -- they rank 25th in three-point percentage.
Instead, the Lakers want to score at the basket.
L.A. attempts the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James are especially inclined to score at the basket.
Boston's Defense
Boston will limit L.A.'s scoring because it boasts excellent rim protection.
Derrick White and especially Kristaps Porzingis are doing a great job of keeping opponents from scoring at the basket.
Porzingis is sometimes looked down upon by NBA fans, but the stats and video footage don't lie.
He is great at positioning himself in front of opposing scorers and timing his blocks.
He is one reason why Boston allows the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Boston wants to shoot threes and L.A. wants to score at the basket.
The Celtics will win because they'll comfortably shoot threes, whereas the Lakers will struggle against Boston's rim protection.
Best Bet: Celtics -3 at -107 with BetOnline
