Bet the Under
If there is one thing you can count on Christmas Day, it’s that NBA games will go Under more often than not.
Since 2007 the Under has hit in 36 of 57 games (63%).
In 2018 only one contest hit the Over, when the Celtics defeated the 76ers, 121-114 (the total was set at 222). The Thunder-Rockets game ended in a push at 222 points, but the Under went 3-for-5 on the day.
Less scoring in early games
You now know the Under is a fairly safe bet, but it’s safest during the earlier Christmas Day games.
Since 2007 the Under is 8-3 in the noon ET game and 8-3-1 in the 2:30 p.m. time slot. It’s also 8-4 in the 5 p.m. game and 8-3-1 in the 8 p.m. frame, but the late-night 10:30 p.m. matchup has a 4-7 record for the Under.
Fade the defending NBA champion
Dating back to 2008 the defending NBA champ has fared poorly on December 25. From 2008-2011, the reigning title winner lost each year on Christmas Day, but from 2015-2017, the NBA champ went on a three-win streak.
The defending champion is 5-6 straight up in Christmas Day games since 2008 but an abysmal 3-8 against the spread.