China Open: Beijing China

[gpcyan3]

Friday, 9/14:

Been a little while since I've posted some tennis (around -6u for the year). I'm still checking out tonight's matches but I believe there are a couple matches to look at today.

First I think the Croat, Ljubicic, is worth a shot against Baggy at plus odds. I understand Baggy leads h2h 3-0 but that doesn't bother me too much - as both recent matches were close. Ljub has had a mediocre year so far and I expect him to pick up his game the last couple months of 2007. Moving into the short carpet season.
From what I've read online Baggy has been serving poorly this tourney and I believe it's time for Ljub to finally get one from the youngen - as I expect Ljubicic to serve up more aces this match than earlier in the tourney.

Ljubicic over Baggy +109 (2u to win 2.18u)

I also want to put some money on Gonzo to beat Lee, but I will be staying away. It seems Gonzo has come to play this tourney but Lee is just too consistant a player to bet against on such a hot streak he is having.

I believe Kiefer will take care of the young cilic, and I will probably be parlaying him with Potato at small odds.

Any thoughts are apprieciated.

 

[scourge]

I'm tempted to take Gonzo myself as I just see him actually wanting to win this tourney so he can get to the Masters and make an extra million for the year. I've bet Lee before but he's only so good, regardless of his tempo right now I'm just not convinced he can beat Gonzo.

I'm not messing with Kiefer and cilic, as Kiefer should win but really who's he beaten Tsonga and Sela? Cilic hasn't played in a while and I'm not going to lay good money on someones rehab tour.

In regards to Baggy/Ljubs, I was intially thinking Bags since I know he won't serve as poorly as he's been doing this tourney. Bags' current first serve stats have been some way off that 65% in recent months and a re-run of the poor 38% he returned in his last match will surely hand the initiative to Ljubicic.

It is worth noting Baghdatis served at 65% in the final in Zagreb this year and Ljubicic still took a set. Just 1 point seperated the pair in that match 111 Baghdatis and 110 Ljubicic. Baghdatis has dropped serve six times so far this week and Ljubicic has yet to be broken. It is all pointing to a win for the big Croat.

so maybe with Ljubs but again I don't like the outdoor factor (favors Bags) if this was indoor hardcourt I'd give Ljubs a shot but I'm staying on the sides for this one. Although I will root for you.

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck today/night

 

[gpcyan3]

Thanks for the insight scourge. I've decided to just stick with Ljubicic for today.

GL with the play on Gonzo if you made it. Good point about Lee not being able to play above his talent level. It seems he does have a "plateau" to his game and I do believe Gonzo came to play this tourney.

 

[scourge]

Thanks for the insight scourge. I've decided to just stick with Ljubicic for today.

GL with the play on Gonzo if you made it. Good point about Lee not being able to play above his talent level. It seems he does have a "plateau" to his game and I do believe Gonzo came to play this tourney.

good play with Ljubs, although it got a little tense there in the final tiebreaker. Gonzo was much the same thanks the multiple rain delays and his inability to hold serve in the 2nd set.

but we both won, thats all that counts.

 

[gpcyan3]

Yea, glad to see we both cashed in yesterday. I should have went with my gut to back Gonzo but just couldn't bring myself to do it.

Baggy served up some horrible %'s which really was the different in that match. Seemed every other serve game he would have a DF.

 

[gpcyan3]

Gonna go ahead and play Ljub again. Gonzo was keying in on Lee's weak 2nd serves last match and I don't see that happening with Ljub who has a much bigger 1st and 2nd than Lee. Gonzo's FH looked skeptic to me as well. Ljub also Leads the h2h 4-2, the 2 losses were close (decided by tiebreakers).

Ljubicic over Gonzo 2-0 +204 (1u to win 2.04u)
Ljubicic wins first set -125 (1.25u to win 1u)
Ljubicic/Gonzalez Ends In 2 Sets -139 (1.39u to win 1u)

Let's hope the Croat finishes this tourney with 2 more wins.

 

[gpcyan3]

And that's why I should always stay away from Gonzo matches.

He plays like total crap the first set and 1/2 then gets lucky on a couple errors by Ljub at the net... Ljub gets rattled and looses his serve.

Oh well, Live and learn, congrats to Gonzo for actually showing up to this tourney and winning it.

 

[gpcyan3]

Playing some WTA the next couple days.

First play is

Akiko Moigami over Lourdes Dominguez Lino +101 (2u to win 2.02u)

Not much to write about this one. It's going to be a close match and Moigami seems to play well on outdoor hardcourt.

 

[Songo]

good work on Akiko, congrats.

think Shuai will trouble Momo tmrw, +hc games might be worth a play... also going probably on Sofia over Tati ml

gl on your other choices

 

[gpcyan3]

Thanks Songo, Still looking at the card for tomorrow but Sofia might be a good pick. I'm thinking about backing Srebotnik over Shaughnessy, but odds aren't that great for single. I may look to add something in a double or play the -GL. She seems to be playing well and with alot of emotion from what I've read online, plus this is her home tournament.

Anyways, GL with the play(s) tomorrow/tonight.

 

[gpcyan3]

Trying to find something I'm interested in betting tonight, but can't seem to find anything that really sparks my interest.

So I'm just gonna throw a single on Srebotnik to play well on her home tourney. Looking over the past HC matches for both players, Kat has taken care of many top 50 players with ease and has only faulter to top 20s.
Shaughnessy is having a good year as well with a couple impressive wins over some lower ranked opponents but I don't believe she has enough game to take out Kat.
I'm waiting on the GL but I'm also gonna throw a unit on the ML.

Srebotnik over Shaughnessy -325 (3.25u to win 1u)

Also have a 2u parlay pending on her from the Cubs game tonight, so we'll see what the GL is. If it's lower than 3.5 I'll definitely be on it. Cheers.

(thought about backing Nakamura +2.5 over Akiko as these 2 are doubles partners and should play a close match but Akiko played well enough yesterday that I dont want to particularly fade her)

 

[Marcus000]

I was actually thinking about betting on Nakamura straight up at the + odds but decided against it. But +2.5 in womens tennis can pretty much be just a SU win bet most of the time so can see why you don't feel comfortable playing it.

GL on your play too. Shaunghessy is big fade material most of the time

 

[gpcyan3]

One play for the WTA semis tonight.

Jelena Jankovic over Lindsey Davenport -120 (3.6u to win 3u)

This is a big play for me as I really thought Davenport did not look sharp in her match against Dementieva or even against E.D.

She's had trouble getting her serve going and I believe this will be the difference in the match tonight. JJ is too good of a player to give away points on her serve and I think she will be pressuring Lindsey alot.

I know JJ lost to LD a couple weeks ago on HC, but this suits me fine as it's a revenge factor for JJ. I also like how JJ easied thru to this round with a 6-0, 6-0 win and LD has been squeaking by in 1st sets against opponents who have given her a ton of freebies ala Double Faults.

just my 2 cents, anyone else have any comments?

btw I think if JJ wins it will be 2-0, but if LD wins it will be 2-1...

 

[gpcyan3]

oh yea, I think Srebotnik will win again today and I will be playing that too, just haven't made up either ML or GL.

Played her the last 2 days on GL and been cashing in on her home tourney.

 

[Marcus000]

gl to ya bro. Lindsay definately didn't look good in yesterdays match and should have lost the first set, but she was thankful she was playing a mental idiot in Demon.

 

[gpcyan3]

Nice win with JJ. Match went basically how I pictured it.
Thanks for the GL Marcus.

I'm playing a parlay for the rest of today's matches. Kirilenko might be a live dog, I might throw a little change on her...

Parlay: Not A.Szavay In 3 Sets vs Peng -360 / B.Bryan/M.Bryan -430 / K.Srebotnik -3 -125 over Dulko (1u to win 1.83u)

That's all.