Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship Game Picks: Both Offenses Put On A Show
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 28, 2024 at 3 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
Baltimore's Defense Isn't Always Dominant
Because the dominating performance that Baltimore achieved in its win last week over Houston might, via recency bias, incline bettors to have confidence in the Ravens' defense this week, it's important to recall how often Baltimore's defense is not dominant.
In fact, there is a trend in play this week. This trend is that, when the Ravens' defense dominates one week, it tends to decline significantly in the following week against an offense with a pulse.
After Week 1, in which Baltimore held Houston to nine points, the Ravens gave up 24 points to the Cincinnati with its injured starting quarterback.
The Ravens later shut down Detroit, holding the Lions to six points. In the week after, they surrendered 24 points to the Cardinals.
Their next dominating performance was in Week 9, when Baltimore beat Seattle 37-3. In the following week, the Ravens gave up 33 points to Cleveland.
Finally, the Ravens locked down a Justin Herbert-led Chargers offense, holding the Chargers to ten points and 279 total yards.
Their next game came against the Rams, who dropped 31 points on them.
This trend offers a commentary on the NFL in general: it is hard nowadays for a defense to dominate consistently, because the league has become so offense-oriented.
The Ravens certainly display this trend, which is in play this week after their defense limited the Houston offense to three points and 213 total yards.
A Closer Look
There are match-up-specific circumstances under which Baltimore's defense might play so well in a given week as opposed to other weeks.
When these circumstances are in Baltimore's favor, then the Ravens defense will look great, and bettors will make the mistake of trusting Baltimore's defense even when these circumstances are not in play.
To explain, the Ravens thrive defensively by applying pressure to the opposing quarterback.
They are likeliest to succeed when they face quarterbacks who are susceptible to their pressure tactics.
In their Week 1 domination of the Texans, they sacked Houston quarterback CJ Stroud five times.
Most recently, they likewise bothered Stroud a lot, which is why Stroud again struggled to move the ball against their defense.
Stroud performed poorly against the blitz and he struggled when Baltimore's defense forced him to move outside the pocket.
To give another example, Detroit's Jared Goff is also a quarterback who, like Stroud, produces poor stat lines against the blitz.
He was thus pressure-heavy Baltimore's perfect victim. As a result, the Lions didn't score a touchdown until late in the game when they were down 35-0.
Patrick Mahomes' Play Style
Patrick Mahomes is built completely differently than Stroud and Goff.
Whereas those quarterbacks hate being blitzed and hate being moved outside the pocket, Mahomes thrives against the blitz.
Throughout his career, he has produced excellent numbers – in terms of passer rating and touchdown-to-interception rate, for example – against defenses that send five or more rushers.
Mahomes' play style makes sense of this statistical reality: he loves it when things break down. This is when he makes many of his highlight reel plays.
He is a mobile quarterback who makes the unlikeliest things happen on the run.
Unlike Stroud and Goff, he is therefore a nightmare for Baltimore's defense.
Kansas City's Offense Is Clicking
It has taken time, time during which bettors have become prejudiced against their offense, but the Chiefs are finally clicking offensively.
They enter Sunday's game having scored 25 or more points in three straight games.
Their victims include good defenses: after succeeding against the Bengals, they performed well in the frigid cold against Miami and in Buffalo.
Although the Bills were a bit banged-up on defense, the Chiefs' 27-point output is impressive not so much because they would have scored over 30 points if Mecole Hardman didn't fumble in the end zone, but because fellow wide receiver Rashee Rice didn't do much.
Rice has established himself as Kansas City's top wide receiver. He and Travis Kelce give Mahomes two great and consistent options to rely on, as he looks for pass-catchers on the move.
Over time, Chiefs pass-catchers have clearly developed a stronger understanding of where to go in order to enable Mahomes to find them on the run.
Isiah Pacheco
Baltimore's most recent games against potent rush attacks – two examples begin San Francisco's and Miami's – have exhibited its vulnerability to good running backs.
Isiah Pacheco is a running back whose physicality will match the characteristic violence of Ravens defenders.
He runs hard, with impressive energy, while always possessing extra big-play threat with his breakaway speed.
Coming off another big game, one in which he amassed 6.5 YPC on 15 carries, Pacheco is primed to help Mahomes by giving the Chiefs a solid ground game.
The Strength of Kansas City's Defense
Like Baltimore's, Kansas City's defense has been so impressive overall, but for reasons that don't apply to this game.
Specifically, the claim to fame of Kansas City's defense is its ability to lock down opposing top receivers – from limiting Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown to one of his worst performances in Week 1 to, most recently, holding Buffalo's Stefon Diggs to his worst output of this season.
Offenses that rely heavily on a single wide receiver are therefore in particular trouble against the Chiefs' defense.
Baltimore's Offense
The Ravens, however, do not so much rely on a single wide receiver.
While Zay Flowers is statistically their leading pass-catcher, there are countless games in which he has done next to nothing and the Ravens have still scored over 30 points.
Instead, the Ravens like to rely on running the ball – with MVP-caliber quarterback Lamar Jackson or with any number of running backs – and on throwing to their tight ends.
Isaiah Likely has stepped up in Mark Andrews' place, as he makes big catches in general and is a potent end zone threat who has caught four touchdown passes in his last three games.
Andrews is the star, though, and he could provide his offense with an additional boost by returning on Sunday. He closed last week by participating fully in the last two practices.
Match-Up Details
The Chiefs often allow any number of wide receivers -- besides the opponent's best one – plus tight ends and running backs to operate as effective pass-catchers.
So Lamar Jackson, who also likes throwing to running back Justice Hill a lot and, among others, can count on an ascendent Odell Beckham Jr., will still be comfortable if his offense falls behind and he needs to pass a lot.
The Chiefs rank rather mediocre in terms of run defense, so Baltimore with its league-leading rush attack will be comfortable offensively also for this reason.
If Willie Yag can't play – the Chiefs linebacker could not play through his neck injury last Sunday – then Lamar Jackson will have an easier time replicating Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen's strong rushing performance from last Sunday because Yag is the player who Kansas City likes to use as a spy on opposing mobile quarterbacks.
With or without Yag, the Chiefs will struggle against the Baltimore offense's weaponry and matchup advantages.
For Those Wanting To Play A Side
While I like both offenses to score a lot and therefore find that the "over" is the best play, if you are looking to play a side, I lean toward the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have the proven playmaker in crunch time, in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who knows how to get his team to the Super Bowl.
All the pressure is on Baltimore's Lamar Jackson to prove, finally, that he can succeed in the playoffs.
Getting the Chiefs with their Hall-of-Fame quarterback at plus money must be too good to pass up. You can be confident that, though Lamar will likewise play very well, Mahomes will make the extra play needed to win.
Best Bet: Over 44.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 28, 2024 at 3 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
Baltimore's Defense Isn't Always Dominant
Because the dominating performance that Baltimore achieved in its win last week over Houston might, via recency bias, incline bettors to have confidence in the Ravens' defense this week, it's important to recall how often Baltimore's defense is not dominant.
In fact, there is a trend in play this week. This trend is that, when the Ravens' defense dominates one week, it tends to decline significantly in the following week against an offense with a pulse.
After Week 1, in which Baltimore held Houston to nine points, the Ravens gave up 24 points to the Cincinnati with its injured starting quarterback.
The Ravens later shut down Detroit, holding the Lions to six points. In the week after, they surrendered 24 points to the Cardinals.
Their next dominating performance was in Week 9, when Baltimore beat Seattle 37-3. In the following week, the Ravens gave up 33 points to Cleveland.
Finally, the Ravens locked down a Justin Herbert-led Chargers offense, holding the Chargers to ten points and 279 total yards.
Their next game came against the Rams, who dropped 31 points on them.
This trend offers a commentary on the NFL in general: it is hard nowadays for a defense to dominate consistently, because the league has become so offense-oriented.
The Ravens certainly display this trend, which is in play this week after their defense limited the Houston offense to three points and 213 total yards.
A Closer Look
There are match-up-specific circumstances under which Baltimore's defense might play so well in a given week as opposed to other weeks.
When these circumstances are in Baltimore's favor, then the Ravens defense will look great, and bettors will make the mistake of trusting Baltimore's defense even when these circumstances are not in play.
To explain, the Ravens thrive defensively by applying pressure to the opposing quarterback.
They are likeliest to succeed when they face quarterbacks who are susceptible to their pressure tactics.
In their Week 1 domination of the Texans, they sacked Houston quarterback CJ Stroud five times.
Most recently, they likewise bothered Stroud a lot, which is why Stroud again struggled to move the ball against their defense.
Stroud performed poorly against the blitz and he struggled when Baltimore's defense forced him to move outside the pocket.
To give another example, Detroit's Jared Goff is also a quarterback who, like Stroud, produces poor stat lines against the blitz.
He was thus pressure-heavy Baltimore's perfect victim. As a result, the Lions didn't score a touchdown until late in the game when they were down 35-0.
Patrick Mahomes' Play Style
Patrick Mahomes is built completely differently than Stroud and Goff.
Whereas those quarterbacks hate being blitzed and hate being moved outside the pocket, Mahomes thrives against the blitz.
Throughout his career, he has produced excellent numbers – in terms of passer rating and touchdown-to-interception rate, for example – against defenses that send five or more rushers.
Mahomes' play style makes sense of this statistical reality: he loves it when things break down. This is when he makes many of his highlight reel plays.
He is a mobile quarterback who makes the unlikeliest things happen on the run.
Unlike Stroud and Goff, he is therefore a nightmare for Baltimore's defense.
Kansas City's Offense Is Clicking
It has taken time, time during which bettors have become prejudiced against their offense, but the Chiefs are finally clicking offensively.
They enter Sunday's game having scored 25 or more points in three straight games.
Their victims include good defenses: after succeeding against the Bengals, they performed well in the frigid cold against Miami and in Buffalo.
Although the Bills were a bit banged-up on defense, the Chiefs' 27-point output is impressive not so much because they would have scored over 30 points if Mecole Hardman didn't fumble in the end zone, but because fellow wide receiver Rashee Rice didn't do much.
Rice has established himself as Kansas City's top wide receiver. He and Travis Kelce give Mahomes two great and consistent options to rely on, as he looks for pass-catchers on the move.
Over time, Chiefs pass-catchers have clearly developed a stronger understanding of where to go in order to enable Mahomes to find them on the run.
Isiah Pacheco
Baltimore's most recent games against potent rush attacks – two examples begin San Francisco's and Miami's – have exhibited its vulnerability to good running backs.
Isiah Pacheco is a running back whose physicality will match the characteristic violence of Ravens defenders.
He runs hard, with impressive energy, while always possessing extra big-play threat with his breakaway speed.
Coming off another big game, one in which he amassed 6.5 YPC on 15 carries, Pacheco is primed to help Mahomes by giving the Chiefs a solid ground game.
The Strength of Kansas City's Defense
Like Baltimore's, Kansas City's defense has been so impressive overall, but for reasons that don't apply to this game.
Specifically, the claim to fame of Kansas City's defense is its ability to lock down opposing top receivers – from limiting Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown to one of his worst performances in Week 1 to, most recently, holding Buffalo's Stefon Diggs to his worst output of this season.
Offenses that rely heavily on a single wide receiver are therefore in particular trouble against the Chiefs' defense.
Baltimore's Offense
The Ravens, however, do not so much rely on a single wide receiver.
While Zay Flowers is statistically their leading pass-catcher, there are countless games in which he has done next to nothing and the Ravens have still scored over 30 points.
Instead, the Ravens like to rely on running the ball – with MVP-caliber quarterback Lamar Jackson or with any number of running backs – and on throwing to their tight ends.
Isaiah Likely has stepped up in Mark Andrews' place, as he makes big catches in general and is a potent end zone threat who has caught four touchdown passes in his last three games.
Andrews is the star, though, and he could provide his offense with an additional boost by returning on Sunday. He closed last week by participating fully in the last two practices.
Match-Up Details
The Chiefs often allow any number of wide receivers -- besides the opponent's best one – plus tight ends and running backs to operate as effective pass-catchers.
So Lamar Jackson, who also likes throwing to running back Justice Hill a lot and, among others, can count on an ascendent Odell Beckham Jr., will still be comfortable if his offense falls behind and he needs to pass a lot.
The Chiefs rank rather mediocre in terms of run defense, so Baltimore with its league-leading rush attack will be comfortable offensively also for this reason.
If Willie Yag can't play – the Chiefs linebacker could not play through his neck injury last Sunday – then Lamar Jackson will have an easier time replicating Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen's strong rushing performance from last Sunday because Yag is the player who Kansas City likes to use as a spy on opposing mobile quarterbacks.
With or without Yag, the Chiefs will struggle against the Baltimore offense's weaponry and matchup advantages.
For Those Wanting To Play A Side
While I like both offenses to score a lot and therefore find that the "over" is the best play, if you are looking to play a side, I lean toward the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have the proven playmaker in crunch time, in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who knows how to get his team to the Super Bowl.
All the pressure is on Baltimore's Lamar Jackson to prove, finally, that he can succeed in the playoffs.
Getting the Chiefs with their Hall-of-Fame quarterback at plus money must be too good to pass up. You can be confident that, though Lamar will likewise play very well, Mahomes will make the extra play needed to win.
Best Bet: Over 44.5 at -110 with BetOnline
