Chiefs vs Broncos: Week 7 NFL Picks Thursday Night Football
Kansas City is enduring an 0-2 SU and ATS slide and gets only a short week of preparation in which to solve its problems.
A big problem for Kansas City comes on offense. The Chiefs are one-dimensional, relying super heavily on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Last week, for example, KC’s leading rusher only amassed eight carries while Mahomes threw 35 times.
Looking at Mahomes statistically, he completed less than 60 percent of his passes in each of his past two games, while his average of eight yards per attempt is down 1.1 YPA from his season average.
Mahomes is not the same since he hurt his ankle in KC’s loss against Indianapolis two weeks ago. A big source of Mahomes’ threat derived from his ability to make plays happen when things around him broke down. He loses a lot of that ability by becoming less mobile.
His lack of mobility is all the more problematic given the status of Kansas City’s offensive line. Its protection unit is beleaguered without the presence of starting left tackle Eric Fisher. As a team, the Chiefs rank second-to-last in adjusted sack rate allowed.
While KC’s offensive line trends downwards, Denver’s defensive line is trending upwards. Denver’s season stats still look terrible because they reflect the start of Denver’s season under its new coaching staff. But the Broncos’ pass rush has been dominant in two of its last three games. Most recently, the Broncos amassed seven sacks and 10 quarterback hits in their shutout defeat of Tennessee.
The other big problem with Kansas City is that it can’t stop the run. The Chiefs rank 30th in opposing YPC.
In Denver, the Chiefs get a run-first opponent that’s anchored by what’s easily one of the more effective run-blocking units as Denver ranks fifth in adjusted line yards. Denver’s running backs are also relatively capable as they are one of the better ball-carrying units in the second level and in the open field.
Denver’s ground game consists in a two-headed monster named Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay gets a bit more attention in the ground game and he averages 4.7 YPC. Freeman has played an increasing role out of the backfield and he and Lindsay share about an equal number of targets.
KC’s second-biggest problem on defense is its helplessness against the short passing game. An example comes in its last game against Houston. According to next-gen stats, 20 of Deshaun Watson’s 30 pass completions came within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
Bronco receivers are extremely agile. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton rank above the 95th percentile in PFF's agility score, which helps them quickly gain separation and be reliable targets in Denver’s short passing game.
In other words, the Broncos possess the personnel to keep Mahomes off the field and thereby help to keep him out of rhythm. Kansas City, because of its defensive woes, has been one of the worst teams in winning the battle for time of possession.
The result is a self-perpetuating cycle where Kansas City’s defense can’t stop the run and gets progressively weaker as the game goes on as its opponent gets to run more plays and to keep tiring out the Chiefs’ defense.
Moreover, the spot is bad for Kansas City as visiting road teams tend to have a tough time on Thursday night. Denver gets to camp at home for a second consecutive week while the Chiefs travel on a short week. Dating to last season, the home team is 13-4 SU on Thursday night.
While the Chiefs are favored, I think Denver can win straight-up given its spot and match-up situation. I’ll gladly take the free points and parlay Denver ATS with an „under“ because Denver’s offense doesn’t have much firepower, will let a lot of clock run, and will keep KC’s offense in check.
Best Bet: Parlay at +301 odds: Denver +3.5 and under 50.5 at Bookmaker
Kansas City is enduring an 0-2 SU and ATS slide and gets only a short week of preparation in which to solve its problems.
A big problem for Kansas City comes on offense. The Chiefs are one-dimensional, relying super heavily on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Last week, for example, KC’s leading rusher only amassed eight carries while Mahomes threw 35 times.
Looking at Mahomes statistically, he completed less than 60 percent of his passes in each of his past two games, while his average of eight yards per attempt is down 1.1 YPA from his season average.
Mahomes is not the same since he hurt his ankle in KC’s loss against Indianapolis two weeks ago. A big source of Mahomes’ threat derived from his ability to make plays happen when things around him broke down. He loses a lot of that ability by becoming less mobile.
His lack of mobility is all the more problematic given the status of Kansas City’s offensive line. Its protection unit is beleaguered without the presence of starting left tackle Eric Fisher. As a team, the Chiefs rank second-to-last in adjusted sack rate allowed.
While KC’s offensive line trends downwards, Denver’s defensive line is trending upwards. Denver’s season stats still look terrible because they reflect the start of Denver’s season under its new coaching staff. But the Broncos’ pass rush has been dominant in two of its last three games. Most recently, the Broncos amassed seven sacks and 10 quarterback hits in their shutout defeat of Tennessee.
The other big problem with Kansas City is that it can’t stop the run. The Chiefs rank 30th in opposing YPC.
In Denver, the Chiefs get a run-first opponent that’s anchored by what’s easily one of the more effective run-blocking units as Denver ranks fifth in adjusted line yards. Denver’s running backs are also relatively capable as they are one of the better ball-carrying units in the second level and in the open field.
Denver’s ground game consists in a two-headed monster named Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay gets a bit more attention in the ground game and he averages 4.7 YPC. Freeman has played an increasing role out of the backfield and he and Lindsay share about an equal number of targets.
KC’s second-biggest problem on defense is its helplessness against the short passing game. An example comes in its last game against Houston. According to next-gen stats, 20 of Deshaun Watson’s 30 pass completions came within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
Bronco receivers are extremely agile. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton rank above the 95th percentile in PFF's agility score, which helps them quickly gain separation and be reliable targets in Denver’s short passing game.
In other words, the Broncos possess the personnel to keep Mahomes off the field and thereby help to keep him out of rhythm. Kansas City, because of its defensive woes, has been one of the worst teams in winning the battle for time of possession.
The result is a self-perpetuating cycle where Kansas City’s defense can’t stop the run and gets progressively weaker as the game goes on as its opponent gets to run more plays and to keep tiring out the Chiefs’ defense.
Moreover, the spot is bad for Kansas City as visiting road teams tend to have a tough time on Thursday night. Denver gets to camp at home for a second consecutive week while the Chiefs travel on a short week. Dating to last season, the home team is 13-4 SU on Thursday night.
While the Chiefs are favored, I think Denver can win straight-up given its spot and match-up situation. I’ll gladly take the free points and parlay Denver ATS with an „under“ because Denver’s offense doesn’t have much firepower, will let a lot of clock run, and will keep KC’s offense in check.
Best Bet: Parlay at +301 odds: Denver +3.5 and under 50.5 at Bookmaker
