Conference Championship Games Parlay (+271): Chiefs to Surprise Bengals in Low-Scoring Affair
Best Bet: Parlay Chiefs +1.5 at -108 & Under 47 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
The Odds
Cincinnati opened as three-point underdogs.
But Bengals +3 vanished rapidly as bettors' money poured in their favor.
As of Tuesday morning, they have become 1.5-point favorites to win on Sunday.
Presumably, the opening odds did not account for the high ankle sprain sustained by star Chief quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Cognizant of its visible severity -- Mahomes was hobbling in the Divisional Round -- bettors rushed to invest in the Bengals, who are at least healthier at the quarterback position.
Mahomes' Injury History
There is a bit of deja vu because Mahomes also suffered a high-ankle sprain in 2019 against Jacksonville.
While that injury may have been worse than the one he incurred last Saturday and while he got one fewer rest day than he is getting in this situation, he did not miss any action.
He came back, the following week, to amass 443 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders.
Mahomes' health also has a more reecnt history of being a central storyline in the playoffs.
In his team's playoff opener in 2020, Mahomes incurred a concussion and a turf toe injury that later required surgery.
The latter injury hindered his mobility -- in the following week, against Buffalo, he mustered five rushing yards.
Nevertheless, he passed for 325 yards and three touchdowns.
So, in suffering a high ankle sprain on Saturday, Mahomes has incurred an injury that he can work through, and it is also evident that he is capable of thriving even while he is not fully himself.
Therefore, I find it ridiculous that the Chiefs are being dogged at home.
Mahomes, Pocket-Passer
Bettors are assigning exaggerated significance to Mahomes' mobility because they see the highlight reels laden by crazy plays that Mahomes uses his mobility to make.
Pocket passers are boring -- they don't make highlight reels as exciting -- but they can move their team downfield.
Mahomes is arguably the best pocket passer in the game.
It will be important for his team to give him the high-quaity pass protection, as it did last week.
He owns the best completion percentage -- 75 percent -- in a clean pocket.
Throughout his career, he has ranked among the NFL's leaders in passer rating after 2.5 seconds in the pocket.
Chief Pass Protection
Kansas City's last opponent, Jacksonville, ranks one spot ahead of Cincinnati in sack percentage.
The Chiefs kept Mahomes upright against the Jaguars, giving him time to throw while protecting him from opposing pass-rushers.
Allowing the second-lowest rate of sacks, Kansas City's pass protection unit will be instrumental in preserving a clean pocket for Mahomes.
Mahomes vs. Two-High Looks
His increased intelligence along with his throw-making ability have helped him overcome defenses' tendency to give him two-high looks.
The Bengals are notorious for having befuddled Mahomes with them in last year's AFC Championship Game.
During the offseason, Mahomes learned how to deal with them, with the result that defenses are not trying to challenge him in this way.
Chief Run Game
When Mahomes struggled back in parts of 2021, he was not only growing as a quarterback but he was disadvantaged by his team's lack of rush attack.
Back in 2021, Kansas City's leading rusher averaged 3.9 YPC.
In this past regular season, KC's top running back accumulated 4.9 YPC.
Isiah Pacheco prowess at running back takes significant pressure off of Mahomes.
Not only does he complement Mahomes' passing, he also makes life more difficult for Cincinnati's defensive ends, who form the bulk of their pass-rushing impetus.
It is a commonplace that, to nullify an opposing pass rush, you run right at the defense.
Pass-rushers often get themselves out of position -- such that they cannot stop the opposing running back -- when they aim for a sack because they are trying to get past opposing offensive linemen while the running back is searching for holes and advancing upfield.
Pacheco's prowess will thus end up punishing the Bengals' for their pass rush ability.
In addition to being strong and physical, he is also extremely fast, complementing his ability to truck stick defenders with a lighting-like speed that, for example, almost helped him complete Kansas City's 98-yard drive last week.
With the likes of speedster Kadarius Toney, the Chiefs can also use jet sweeps and the like to develop an east-west running game, which will further slow down and wear down Cincinnati's defensive ends.
Bengals' Rush Defense
Cleveland, without much of a quarterback, won three of its last four games against the Bengals. Two of those games were blowouts.
The Browns' success against Cincinnati emanates largely from its excellent rush attack.
Cincinnati's run defense is vulnerable to powerful runners, and Kansas City has one in Pacheco.
Chief Pass Rush vs. Beleaguered Bengal O-Line
For its success against the Bengals, Cleveland also depended significantly on the success of its pass rush, on its ability to bother Bengal quarterback Joe Burrow without committing defenders to blitzing.
Kansas City can succeed in this respect, too, for two main reasons.
One, it has a good pass rush: Kansas City ranks fifth in pressure rate and fifth in sack rate.
The Chiefs rank 14 spots higher than Buffalo in both categories because their defensive line is literally bigger and stronger and more well-rounded than that of the Bills.
Two, Cincinnati might be down three starting offensive linemen for this game -- its right tackle has already missed a few games and starting left tackle Jonah Williams plus starting right guard Alex Cappa could continue to miss action.
Against the likes of Frank Clark and versatile fellow defensive lineman Chris Jones, the Bengal offensive line that ranks as high as 17that limiting the opponent's sack rate because it was healthier, will struggle.
Whereas Mahomes will have time to find his elite tight end and other targets, Burrow will struggle to develop a rhythm and to allow especially his favorite target to play himself open.
Therefore, it is the Bengals' o-line and not Mahomes that is actually the crucial injury to note.
Parlay Verdict
This is going to be a game that, more than one would normally expect in a game between two of the highest-profile quarterbacks, will feature running backs and therefore a ticking clock with fewer points.
Kansas City can count on Pacheco and wide receiver carries while the Bengals will look to continue their rushing success against the Chiefs, which they displayed in their regular season victory over them.
The Chiefs' edges in pass protection and pass rush and Mahomes' passing ability will ensure that they get revenge.
Best Bet: Parlay Chiefs +1.5 at -108 & Under 47 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
The Odds
Cincinnati opened as three-point underdogs.
But Bengals +3 vanished rapidly as bettors' money poured in their favor.
As of Tuesday morning, they have become 1.5-point favorites to win on Sunday.
Presumably, the opening odds did not account for the high ankle sprain sustained by star Chief quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Cognizant of its visible severity -- Mahomes was hobbling in the Divisional Round -- bettors rushed to invest in the Bengals, who are at least healthier at the quarterback position.
Mahomes' Injury History
There is a bit of deja vu because Mahomes also suffered a high-ankle sprain in 2019 against Jacksonville.
While that injury may have been worse than the one he incurred last Saturday and while he got one fewer rest day than he is getting in this situation, he did not miss any action.
He came back, the following week, to amass 443 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders.
Mahomes' health also has a more reecnt history of being a central storyline in the playoffs.
In his team's playoff opener in 2020, Mahomes incurred a concussion and a turf toe injury that later required surgery.
The latter injury hindered his mobility -- in the following week, against Buffalo, he mustered five rushing yards.
Nevertheless, he passed for 325 yards and three touchdowns.
So, in suffering a high ankle sprain on Saturday, Mahomes has incurred an injury that he can work through, and it is also evident that he is capable of thriving even while he is not fully himself.
Therefore, I find it ridiculous that the Chiefs are being dogged at home.
Mahomes, Pocket-Passer
Bettors are assigning exaggerated significance to Mahomes' mobility because they see the highlight reels laden by crazy plays that Mahomes uses his mobility to make.
Pocket passers are boring -- they don't make highlight reels as exciting -- but they can move their team downfield.
Mahomes is arguably the best pocket passer in the game.
It will be important for his team to give him the high-quaity pass protection, as it did last week.
He owns the best completion percentage -- 75 percent -- in a clean pocket.
Throughout his career, he has ranked among the NFL's leaders in passer rating after 2.5 seconds in the pocket.
Chief Pass Protection
Kansas City's last opponent, Jacksonville, ranks one spot ahead of Cincinnati in sack percentage.
The Chiefs kept Mahomes upright against the Jaguars, giving him time to throw while protecting him from opposing pass-rushers.
Allowing the second-lowest rate of sacks, Kansas City's pass protection unit will be instrumental in preserving a clean pocket for Mahomes.
Mahomes vs. Two-High Looks
His increased intelligence along with his throw-making ability have helped him overcome defenses' tendency to give him two-high looks.
The Bengals are notorious for having befuddled Mahomes with them in last year's AFC Championship Game.
During the offseason, Mahomes learned how to deal with them, with the result that defenses are not trying to challenge him in this way.
Chief Run Game
When Mahomes struggled back in parts of 2021, he was not only growing as a quarterback but he was disadvantaged by his team's lack of rush attack.
Back in 2021, Kansas City's leading rusher averaged 3.9 YPC.
In this past regular season, KC's top running back accumulated 4.9 YPC.
Isiah Pacheco prowess at running back takes significant pressure off of Mahomes.
Not only does he complement Mahomes' passing, he also makes life more difficult for Cincinnati's defensive ends, who form the bulk of their pass-rushing impetus.
It is a commonplace that, to nullify an opposing pass rush, you run right at the defense.
Pass-rushers often get themselves out of position -- such that they cannot stop the opposing running back -- when they aim for a sack because they are trying to get past opposing offensive linemen while the running back is searching for holes and advancing upfield.
Pacheco's prowess will thus end up punishing the Bengals' for their pass rush ability.
In addition to being strong and physical, he is also extremely fast, complementing his ability to truck stick defenders with a lighting-like speed that, for example, almost helped him complete Kansas City's 98-yard drive last week.
With the likes of speedster Kadarius Toney, the Chiefs can also use jet sweeps and the like to develop an east-west running game, which will further slow down and wear down Cincinnati's defensive ends.
Bengals' Rush Defense
Cleveland, without much of a quarterback, won three of its last four games against the Bengals. Two of those games were blowouts.
The Browns' success against Cincinnati emanates largely from its excellent rush attack.
Cincinnati's run defense is vulnerable to powerful runners, and Kansas City has one in Pacheco.
Chief Pass Rush vs. Beleaguered Bengal O-Line
For its success against the Bengals, Cleveland also depended significantly on the success of its pass rush, on its ability to bother Bengal quarterback Joe Burrow without committing defenders to blitzing.
Kansas City can succeed in this respect, too, for two main reasons.
One, it has a good pass rush: Kansas City ranks fifth in pressure rate and fifth in sack rate.
The Chiefs rank 14 spots higher than Buffalo in both categories because their defensive line is literally bigger and stronger and more well-rounded than that of the Bills.
Two, Cincinnati might be down three starting offensive linemen for this game -- its right tackle has already missed a few games and starting left tackle Jonah Williams plus starting right guard Alex Cappa could continue to miss action.
Against the likes of Frank Clark and versatile fellow defensive lineman Chris Jones, the Bengal offensive line that ranks as high as 17that limiting the opponent's sack rate because it was healthier, will struggle.
Whereas Mahomes will have time to find his elite tight end and other targets, Burrow will struggle to develop a rhythm and to allow especially his favorite target to play himself open.
Therefore, it is the Bengals' o-line and not Mahomes that is actually the crucial injury to note.
Parlay Verdict
This is going to be a game that, more than one would normally expect in a game between two of the highest-profile quarterbacks, will feature running backs and therefore a ticking clock with fewer points.
Kansas City can count on Pacheco and wide receiver carries while the Bengals will look to continue their rushing success against the Chiefs, which they displayed in their regular season victory over them.
The Chiefs' edges in pass protection and pass rush and Mahomes' passing ability will ensure that they get revenge.
