Jaguars Lean On Physicality For Potential Upset Of Chiefs
Kansas City at Jacksonville
When: 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFL Pick: Jaguars +4
Odds And History
Kansas City opened as 4.5-point favorites. As of Tuesday night, most books have dropped that number to 3.5. But +4 is still surviving.
Covering a four-point spread may seem easy for Kansas City if you put too much stock in last year's game. In Week 5, the Chiefs defeated Jacksonville 30-14. In the second quarter, the game felt within reach for Jacksonville until Kansas City scored off a pick-six. That interception was one of four thrown by then-Jaguar quarterback Blake Bortles.
And herein lies the problem: Bortles, an often inept passer, threw 61 times. Maybe the Jaguars were concerned over how thin they were at running back since starter Leonard Fournette was injured. Either way, the offensive strategy was extremely puzzling given Bortles' ineptitude and because a pass-heavy focus played into the hands of Kansas City's defensive strength, its pass rush.
Bortles is gone and Nick Foles has taken his place. Fournette is back. And Sunday's game is in Jacksonville where Florida's unique heat and humidity make it harder for Kansas City to win with its characteristic speed, to sustain higher levels of speed while growing exhausted by the conditions.
Jaguars Own The Battle For Time Of Possession
Kansas City's offense can't score so many points and will even struggle to find a rhythm if it doesn't see the field much. The Jaguars' offense happens to be built both philosophically and in terms of personnel to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines.
Jacksonville drafted Leonard Fournette two years ago to be the centerpiece of its offense. He's strong, physical and has a workhorse mentality. During Jacksonville's 2017 run to the AFC Championship, he was crucial in sustaining drives and allowing Bortles to have wide open receiving targets through the play-action pass.
After completing a Rocky-like program that took him to high-altitude Wyoming and led him to shed 20 pounds. He's back, mentally and physically, and couldn't be fresher. Fournette must also be salivating to face the Chiefs, which, last year, ranked 30th in allowing 4.9 YPC and 27th in allowing 132.1 rushing YPG.
To give Kansas City credit, it showed during the offseason that it clearly cared about rehabilitating its defense. The Chiefs acquired a new defensive coordinator and new defensive assistants. They brought in seven new defensive players.
Rebuilding a unit, though, isn't like in Madden where new acquisitions immediately coalesce. We saw this last year with the Rams' defense and others that chemistry takes time, as does finding acclimation to new schemes and concepts. While the flux may help Kansas City long-term, it's disadvantageous to its defense in Week 1.
Even in terms of player quality, I don't think that Kansas City's changes will help it against Jacksonville. The biggest signing on the defensive line was Frank Clark. The former Seahawk amassed pass rushing numbers superior to those of other defensive ends who made the Pro Bowl last year. But he lagged behind in terms of his ability to defend the run. Looking at linebacker, the Chiefs have two starters listed. One is Anthony Hitchens, who was graded last year as the league's worst.
Although people raise questions about the quality of Jacksonville's protection unit, at least it can boast overwhelming continuity -- four of its five current starting offensive linemen also started in Week 1 last year. The one exception is rookie right tackle Jawaan Taylor.
Play-action can be effective for Jacksonville with the attention that the Chiefs perforce devote to Fournette. Nick Foles represents a huge upgrade at quarterback, boasting over Bortles as in other respects a 2.3 percent advantage in career completion.
Finally in Kansas City do Jaguar receivers get an opponent where they can thrive. The Chiefs have a major crisis at cornerback of which they only had four before having Tremon Smith switch back from running back and wide receiver to this position. They even bothered to sign Morris Claiborne, although he's suspended for the first four games of this season.
Smith and Charvarius Ward have combined for only 327 snaps including preseason. Bashaud Breeland graded well below-average last season, which is impressive considering he was one of the top corners from Weeks 10 to 17. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is determined to assign Kendall Fuller to the slot where he was also below- average last season.
Jaguars' Defense Is Still One Of The Best
Even last year, the Jaguars' defense was still great statistically, for example ranking fifth in total yards allowed. Mahomes' worst quarterback rating in a game by far came against the Jaguars. Jalen Ramsey was solid against Mahomes' top receiver Tyreek Hill, limiting him to one of his lowest yardage totals on the season. Ramsey and A.J. Buoye are still one of the NFL's highest-ranked cornerback duos.
Where the Jaguars' defense can be positively game-changing is with its pass rush, especially if the Jags lead early and force the Chiefs into a higher number of predictable passing situations. Last year, the Jags ranked fourth in quarterback pressure rate and stand to improve in this regard after drafting Josh Allen in the first round to become even more stacked at the defensive end position.
Calais Campbell and Yannik Ngakoue combined for 20 sacks last season and Allen brings elite burst, explosiveness, and speed to the position. With these guys, Jacksonville has the personnel to make Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket and pursue him when he escapes.
Conclusion
Jacksonville will control tempo on offense with a run-heavy philosophy led by Fournette and complemented by Foles' accuracy in the passing game. Its defense won't let Mahomes get too comfortable and neither he nor his top receiver Hill will be a very positive factor for Kansas City's offense.
Kansas City at Jacksonville
When: 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFL Pick: Jaguars +4
Odds And History
Kansas City opened as 4.5-point favorites. As of Tuesday night, most books have dropped that number to 3.5. But +4 is still surviving.
Covering a four-point spread may seem easy for Kansas City if you put too much stock in last year's game. In Week 5, the Chiefs defeated Jacksonville 30-14. In the second quarter, the game felt within reach for Jacksonville until Kansas City scored off a pick-six. That interception was one of four thrown by then-Jaguar quarterback Blake Bortles.
And herein lies the problem: Bortles, an often inept passer, threw 61 times. Maybe the Jaguars were concerned over how thin they were at running back since starter Leonard Fournette was injured. Either way, the offensive strategy was extremely puzzling given Bortles' ineptitude and because a pass-heavy focus played into the hands of Kansas City's defensive strength, its pass rush.
Bortles is gone and Nick Foles has taken his place. Fournette is back. And Sunday's game is in Jacksonville where Florida's unique heat and humidity make it harder for Kansas City to win with its characteristic speed, to sustain higher levels of speed while growing exhausted by the conditions.
Jaguars Own The Battle For Time Of Possession
Kansas City's offense can't score so many points and will even struggle to find a rhythm if it doesn't see the field much. The Jaguars' offense happens to be built both philosophically and in terms of personnel to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines.
Jacksonville drafted Leonard Fournette two years ago to be the centerpiece of its offense. He's strong, physical and has a workhorse mentality. During Jacksonville's 2017 run to the AFC Championship, he was crucial in sustaining drives and allowing Bortles to have wide open receiving targets through the play-action pass.
After completing a Rocky-like program that took him to high-altitude Wyoming and led him to shed 20 pounds. He's back, mentally and physically, and couldn't be fresher. Fournette must also be salivating to face the Chiefs, which, last year, ranked 30th in allowing 4.9 YPC and 27th in allowing 132.1 rushing YPG.
To give Kansas City credit, it showed during the offseason that it clearly cared about rehabilitating its defense. The Chiefs acquired a new defensive coordinator and new defensive assistants. They brought in seven new defensive players.
Rebuilding a unit, though, isn't like in Madden where new acquisitions immediately coalesce. We saw this last year with the Rams' defense and others that chemistry takes time, as does finding acclimation to new schemes and concepts. While the flux may help Kansas City long-term, it's disadvantageous to its defense in Week 1.
Even in terms of player quality, I don't think that Kansas City's changes will help it against Jacksonville. The biggest signing on the defensive line was Frank Clark. The former Seahawk amassed pass rushing numbers superior to those of other defensive ends who made the Pro Bowl last year. But he lagged behind in terms of his ability to defend the run. Looking at linebacker, the Chiefs have two starters listed. One is Anthony Hitchens, who was graded last year as the league's worst.
Although people raise questions about the quality of Jacksonville's protection unit, at least it can boast overwhelming continuity -- four of its five current starting offensive linemen also started in Week 1 last year. The one exception is rookie right tackle Jawaan Taylor.
Play-action can be effective for Jacksonville with the attention that the Chiefs perforce devote to Fournette. Nick Foles represents a huge upgrade at quarterback, boasting over Bortles as in other respects a 2.3 percent advantage in career completion.
Finally in Kansas City do Jaguar receivers get an opponent where they can thrive. The Chiefs have a major crisis at cornerback of which they only had four before having Tremon Smith switch back from running back and wide receiver to this position. They even bothered to sign Morris Claiborne, although he's suspended for the first four games of this season.
Smith and Charvarius Ward have combined for only 327 snaps including preseason. Bashaud Breeland graded well below-average last season, which is impressive considering he was one of the top corners from Weeks 10 to 17. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is determined to assign Kendall Fuller to the slot where he was also below- average last season.
Jaguars' Defense Is Still One Of The Best
Even last year, the Jaguars' defense was still great statistically, for example ranking fifth in total yards allowed. Mahomes' worst quarterback rating in a game by far came against the Jaguars. Jalen Ramsey was solid against Mahomes' top receiver Tyreek Hill, limiting him to one of his lowest yardage totals on the season. Ramsey and A.J. Buoye are still one of the NFL's highest-ranked cornerback duos.
Where the Jaguars' defense can be positively game-changing is with its pass rush, especially if the Jags lead early and force the Chiefs into a higher number of predictable passing situations. Last year, the Jags ranked fourth in quarterback pressure rate and stand to improve in this regard after drafting Josh Allen in the first round to become even more stacked at the defensive end position.
Calais Campbell and Yannik Ngakoue combined for 20 sacks last season and Allen brings elite burst, explosiveness, and speed to the position. With these guys, Jacksonville has the personnel to make Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket and pursue him when he escapes.
Conclusion
Jacksonville will control tempo on offense with a run-heavy philosophy led by Fournette and complemented by Foles' accuracy in the passing game. Its defense won't let Mahomes get too comfortable and neither he nor his top receiver Hill will be a very positive factor for Kansas City's offense.
