Bears vs. Raiders NFL Week 5 Picks and Odds Breakdown
Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
Bears Ground Game
One significant source of offense for the Bears needs to come on the ground if their offense wants to succeed today.
I say "needs" partly because defending the run has proven to be a tremendous weakness of the Raider defense.
In particular, Raider defenders are missing a lot of tackle. Missed tackles largely explain why they rank 23rd in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
To be fair, Vegas has encountered some running backs that are difficult for just about any defense to corral.
It's hard to blame them too much, for example, for failing to limit Austin Ekeler who accrued 7.8 YPC against them, benefits from participating in an offense that also forces opponents to respect its pass attack, and averages 5.7 YPC this season.
Evidence for the possibility that Raider run defenders can play decently exists in the Steeler game, where they limited Pittsburgh to 39 rushing yards.
Therefore, the situation is as follows: a strong ground game can really hit the Vegas defense hard, while a weak one can't be expected to flourish.
This week, Chicago's ground game looks particularly weak. The biggest reason is the absence of David Montgomery, whose knee injury means that he will miss at least the rest of October.
Montgomery was easily Chicago's top running back. Compared with other NFL teams who rely primarily on their leading running-back, Chicago's reliance on Montgomery's carries was statistically among the highest.
His loss is, therefore, significant. Crucially, he was characteristically a strong runner who had the ability to break tackles that could have plagued the Raider run defense.
Bear Pass Attack
The Raider pass defense will have a much easier test this week.
After dealing with Justin Herbert, his top wide receiver Keenan Allen whom the Raiders effectively prevented from getting open downfield, and company, the Vegas pass defense still ranks 11th in opposing passer rating.
Chicago's pass attack is problematic on three levels that the Raiders can exploit.
One, its pass protection continues to suffer. The Bears are the worst team at limiting the opposing sack rate.
Look, therefore, for the likes of Raider edge rusher Maxx Crosby to take advantage. As evident in his very high PFF grade and his pressures total, Crosby is enjoying by far a career year.
Secondly, the Bears lack a clear-cut top wide receiver. Typically, this guy has been Allen Robinson.
But he has not been the same this year. Through four games, he is on pace for 500 yards on the season, which would be less than half of the yardage total he amassed last year.
Raider top corner Casey Hayward Jr., two-time Pro-Bowler, will thus have no problems. As the Bears have always relied so heavily, volume-wise, on Robinson, they lack the depth at wide receiver to take advantage of injury concerns among lower-level Raider cornerbacks.
Thirdly, relatedly, rookie Justin Fields is still very much a work in progress. He doesn't put up strong numbers as he often fails to go through his progressions quickly.
Raider Ground Game vs. Chicago Front Seven
Running the ball has been a consistent issue this season for Vegas. The Raiders rank 27th in rushing yards per game largely because of the lack of quality in the interior of their offensive line.
One might point to key injuries on the Bear defense in an attempt to create hope for the Vegas ground game. Do not do this.
Last week, both important banged-up defenders, Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack, left the game against Detroit. Yet the team was just fine.
Chicago still limited the Lions to below their season averages in both rushing yards and YPC. While it's the Lions, they at least rank higher on the ground than the Raiders.
Raider Pass Attack vs. Bear Defense
Problems in Las Vegas' offensive line also extend to its pass protection. The Raiders rank 20th in limiting opposing sack rate.
Their problems present a good opportunity for a very highly-ranked Bear pass rush that can rely on multiple guys who are still healthy. Robert Quinn, for example, leads the team with 4.5 sacks.
When Carr remains upright, he'll probably look to tight end Darren Waller, who leads the team in targets and receptions.
Chicago, however, can hold its own against tight ends. The Bears rank ninth-best in limiting opposing tight end productivity.
The team's top receiver, Henry Ruggs, will find things difficult against Chicago's Jaylon Johnson, who's quick but probably relies more on his physicality in press coverage than on his speed.
Stepping up as the team's top corner this year, he's allowing a 44.9 passer rating when targeted.
The Verdict
Without Montgomery, Chicago lacks the weaponry to exploit Las Vegas' defensive weakness while its lackluster pass attack will prove a vastly easier test for the Raider secondary and pass rush.
Meanwhile, the Raider ground game will continue to struggle against a healthy enough Bear front seven. Chicago's top-level pass rush and secondary will limit Vegas' pass attack.
Best Bet: Under 44 at -108 with Heritage
Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
Bears Ground Game
One significant source of offense for the Bears needs to come on the ground if their offense wants to succeed today.
I say "needs" partly because defending the run has proven to be a tremendous weakness of the Raider defense.
In particular, Raider defenders are missing a lot of tackle. Missed tackles largely explain why they rank 23rd in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
To be fair, Vegas has encountered some running backs that are difficult for just about any defense to corral.
It's hard to blame them too much, for example, for failing to limit Austin Ekeler who accrued 7.8 YPC against them, benefits from participating in an offense that also forces opponents to respect its pass attack, and averages 5.7 YPC this season.
Evidence for the possibility that Raider run defenders can play decently exists in the Steeler game, where they limited Pittsburgh to 39 rushing yards.
Therefore, the situation is as follows: a strong ground game can really hit the Vegas defense hard, while a weak one can't be expected to flourish.
This week, Chicago's ground game looks particularly weak. The biggest reason is the absence of David Montgomery, whose knee injury means that he will miss at least the rest of October.
Montgomery was easily Chicago's top running back. Compared with other NFL teams who rely primarily on their leading running-back, Chicago's reliance on Montgomery's carries was statistically among the highest.
His loss is, therefore, significant. Crucially, he was characteristically a strong runner who had the ability to break tackles that could have plagued the Raider run defense.
Bear Pass Attack
The Raider pass defense will have a much easier test this week.
After dealing with Justin Herbert, his top wide receiver Keenan Allen whom the Raiders effectively prevented from getting open downfield, and company, the Vegas pass defense still ranks 11th in opposing passer rating.
Chicago's pass attack is problematic on three levels that the Raiders can exploit.
One, its pass protection continues to suffer. The Bears are the worst team at limiting the opposing sack rate.
Look, therefore, for the likes of Raider edge rusher Maxx Crosby to take advantage. As evident in his very high PFF grade and his pressures total, Crosby is enjoying by far a career year.
Secondly, the Bears lack a clear-cut top wide receiver. Typically, this guy has been Allen Robinson.
But he has not been the same this year. Through four games, he is on pace for 500 yards on the season, which would be less than half of the yardage total he amassed last year.
Raider top corner Casey Hayward Jr., two-time Pro-Bowler, will thus have no problems. As the Bears have always relied so heavily, volume-wise, on Robinson, they lack the depth at wide receiver to take advantage of injury concerns among lower-level Raider cornerbacks.
Thirdly, relatedly, rookie Justin Fields is still very much a work in progress. He doesn't put up strong numbers as he often fails to go through his progressions quickly.
Raider Ground Game vs. Chicago Front Seven
Running the ball has been a consistent issue this season for Vegas. The Raiders rank 27th in rushing yards per game largely because of the lack of quality in the interior of their offensive line.
One might point to key injuries on the Bear defense in an attempt to create hope for the Vegas ground game. Do not do this.
Last week, both important banged-up defenders, Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack, left the game against Detroit. Yet the team was just fine.
Chicago still limited the Lions to below their season averages in both rushing yards and YPC. While it's the Lions, they at least rank higher on the ground than the Raiders.
Raider Pass Attack vs. Bear Defense
Problems in Las Vegas' offensive line also extend to its pass protection. The Raiders rank 20th in limiting opposing sack rate.
Their problems present a good opportunity for a very highly-ranked Bear pass rush that can rely on multiple guys who are still healthy. Robert Quinn, for example, leads the team with 4.5 sacks.
When Carr remains upright, he'll probably look to tight end Darren Waller, who leads the team in targets and receptions.
Chicago, however, can hold its own against tight ends. The Bears rank ninth-best in limiting opposing tight end productivity.
The team's top receiver, Henry Ruggs, will find things difficult against Chicago's Jaylon Johnson, who's quick but probably relies more on his physicality in press coverage than on his speed.
Stepping up as the team's top corner this year, he's allowing a 44.9 passer rating when targeted.
The Verdict
Without Montgomery, Chicago lacks the weaponry to exploit Las Vegas' defensive weakness while its lackluster pass attack will prove a vastly easier test for the Raider secondary and pass rush.
Meanwhile, the Raider ground game will continue to struggle against a healthy enough Bear front seven. Chicago's top-level pass rush and secondary will limit Vegas' pass attack.
Best Bet: Under 44 at -108 with Heritage
