BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
While it's early in the new seasons of sports, and I'm letting the results accrue to generate a sizable stat pool from which I take my usual betting cue, some of the betting I do is chasing situations to end. I'm not someone who subscribes to theory of never backing against a streak. To me, you have to know when to board such a train and if you do, it can work out quite well. I lost once chasing Dallas Dog mls to see in their 1st win of the season, and I lost once chasing Dog mls to see in the Mighty Ducks first regulation loss of the (NHL) season.
I'm killing 2 birds with one stone in my (chase) bet for tonight.
As always, I'm dealing with facts based on opening lines.
Boston - hasn't yet had a home team cover a game of theirs this season.
Indiana - The Fav has covered their last 5 games (ATS).
If Boston wins, or loses by 2 or less (opening line +3), both of these streaks end.
Indiana's streak.
Last season, there were 32 instances of streaks by the Fav of 5 games or longer around the league.
When the team going through that streak covered between 20% & 80% of the games within that streak, those streaks ended at 5 or 6 games 95.2% of the time. The only time such streaks didnt end between 5 or 6 games, 8 games was the longest any such streak survived for before ending.
When the team going through that streak covered 19.9% or less of the games within that streak, those streaks ended at 5 or 6 games 40.0% of the time.
When the team going through that streak covered 80.1% or more of the games within that streak, those streaks ended at 5 or 6 games 50.0% of the time.
Indiana has covered 3 of the 5 games within their current streak. That means, looking at their future games beyond this one, for the Fav to keep covering their games means they'd never fall outside the 20-80% covering category of stats.
Boston's streak
Last season, only 3 of 30 teams started the season with the home team failing to cover a game for more than 4 games into the season - two were 5 games in length, and the highest was 6 games in length. Boston has already managed what no other team could to start last season.
Further, during the season as a whole, there were 27 streaks where the home team failed to cover ATS for 6 games or longer. Only 2 (7.4%) lasted beyond 8 games in duration.
Each set of figures indicate, on a strong percentage basis, that both teams likely add (at most) only 1 further matching result to their current streaks (obviously here meaning an Indy win by 3 points or more). Indiana has New Jersey next at home (I have no problems considering taking Jersey as Dog there), and Boston has Portland at home (I'd have no problems taking a winless@home Boston there ATS (given a reasonable line, obviously)).
The best I can do is Boston +1.5, so an Indy win by 2 points fucks me over. Aside from the streaks here, Boston has won their last 3 at home vs Indy in the reg season, and 4 of the last 5 reg season meetings overall, so I like this anyway.
I might also add its helps the ATS situation in the trend thread is a stiff Fav run. Even if it continues, there should be a number of Dog results showing up today to balance out that run a bit more.
I'm killing 2 birds with one stone in my (chase) bet for tonight.
As always, I'm dealing with facts based on opening lines.
Boston - hasn't yet had a home team cover a game of theirs this season.
Indiana - The Fav has covered their last 5 games (ATS).
If Boston wins, or loses by 2 or less (opening line +3), both of these streaks end.
Indiana's streak.
Last season, there were 32 instances of streaks by the Fav of 5 games or longer around the league.
When the team going through that streak covered between 20% & 80% of the games within that streak, those streaks ended at 5 or 6 games 95.2% of the time. The only time such streaks didnt end between 5 or 6 games, 8 games was the longest any such streak survived for before ending.
When the team going through that streak covered 19.9% or less of the games within that streak, those streaks ended at 5 or 6 games 40.0% of the time.
When the team going through that streak covered 80.1% or more of the games within that streak, those streaks ended at 5 or 6 games 50.0% of the time.
Indiana has covered 3 of the 5 games within their current streak. That means, looking at their future games beyond this one, for the Fav to keep covering their games means they'd never fall outside the 20-80% covering category of stats.
Boston's streak
Last season, only 3 of 30 teams started the season with the home team failing to cover a game for more than 4 games into the season - two were 5 games in length, and the highest was 6 games in length. Boston has already managed what no other team could to start last season.
Further, during the season as a whole, there were 27 streaks where the home team failed to cover ATS for 6 games or longer. Only 2 (7.4%) lasted beyond 8 games in duration.
Each set of figures indicate, on a strong percentage basis, that both teams likely add (at most) only 1 further matching result to their current streaks (obviously here meaning an Indy win by 3 points or more). Indiana has New Jersey next at home (I have no problems considering taking Jersey as Dog there), and Boston has Portland at home (I'd have no problems taking a winless@home Boston there ATS (given a reasonable line, obviously)).
The best I can do is Boston +1.5, so an Indy win by 2 points fucks me over. Aside from the streaks here, Boston has won their last 3 at home vs Indy in the reg season, and 4 of the last 5 reg season meetings overall, so I like this anyway.
I might also add its helps the ATS situation in the trend thread is a stiff Fav run. Even if it continues, there should be a number of Dog results showing up today to balance out that run a bit more.
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