BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I mentioned in a discussion thread a day or 2 back that I've had my eye on 3 Eastern teams who've shown a very strong Under bias (either against all teams, or conference teams) so far in the early season. Of those 3 teams, Charlotte is the only one to have shown that bias against all teams.
My experience of unfettered early season runs of "1 dimensional" totals output is they're something that rarely get to last beyond the 1st month/month & a half of the season. While it maybe something that persists as a whole for a season overall (& Charlotte may very well end up with a predominantly Under record this season), it's like there's an unwritten rule that a block of contrary results is required from teams after showing such an initial bias so bettors are at least given a reason to continue to believe the opposite side to a team's clearly telegraphed bias is worth betting, something which linesmakers obviously have a stake in influencing.
Here are some examples of such streaks and their counter-balancing results from the last couple of seasons. The nature of the total is irrelevant so I've simply noted the initial run of results and then the opposite counter-balancing sequence, with the obvious observation that the stiffer the initial run, the stiffer the nature of the subsquent counterbalancing "action" (these streaks from the last 2 seasons - based on opening lines - represent all of those initial instances of at least 10 games, where the unfavoured result represented no more than 27.0% of the initial total results, and where the turning of results didn't hinge on a significant change in a team's injury situation/s. The counterbalancing streak is the grouping number prior to the registering of the 2nd result in keeping with the biased nature of the 1st group, ie. in the first example 8-2 to Under was followed by 3-1 to Over before the 2nd Under result appeared since the turn of results) ....
Some of these teams then went on to have a more balanced totals output, some reverted back to their prior heavy one-way bias, while others stayed with their new bias.
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Charlotte's streak currently sits at U/O 13-3 (a streak obviously in excess of 10 games, and w/unfavoured result representing 20% of their total mark, therefore marking this as in keeping with the above stats) which is as stiff a bias as anything seen in recent times.
The first thing I've noted about their bias is that their winning is intimately aligned to their being most likely to produce an Over result...
beat MIA - 187 total - 194.0 line ...within 7 pts
beat NOR - 181 total - 186.0 line ...within 5 pts
beat UTH - 200 total - 181.0 line ...Over
beat PHI - 177 total - 181.0 line ...within 4 pts (176.5 closing line Over)
beat IND - 198 total - 188.0 line ...Over
...with only the Indy game on the road.
So it's seeing a schedule that has them playing next up Minny & Oklahoma at home & Milwaukee away as all very winnable games aligned with the fact their streak size is at that point where one could expect some sort of correction the other way sooner rather than later, as compared to those I noted above from the last 2 seasons, that I'm going to indulge in somewhat of a semi chase here: semi because even if an Over hits immediately I'll still be looking to play their subsequent Overs.
I'd have posted various Minny stats supporting the Wolves side of an Over play (which isn't looking great headed into the 4th, but all an Under result there does is keep the Cats lines down for their coming games), but of their other 2 coming opponents -
Oklahoma
Is 7-1 to Over on the road this season (avg 201.1 pts) as opposed to 6-4 to Under at home (avg 188.7 pts). That road average climbs to 205.5 pts vs Eastern teams (4-0 to Over).
Milwaukee
Started out 6-3-1 to Under (avg 185.8 pts) and has since gone 6-3 to Over (avg 193.4 pts). Incl. in those recent Under results is their 153 pt effort in CHA (their 14th straight game at a different venue to start the season), which serves this coming game's line imo re: an Over. CHA will be their 3rd straight home game on their 1st home stand this season that started 2 days ago.
Beyond these 2 opponents they have CLE at home and then a series of tougher road games where their old chestnut of taking a loss while running round like headless chickens comes into play. I can see these guys going O/U 3-4 minimum through their next 7 games. All of my experience says their current rate of 80%+ Unders is simply not going to continue, esp. given the amount of games they've already played.
Stage 1: Small bet on Over 184.5 CHA/MIN
My experience of unfettered early season runs of "1 dimensional" totals output is they're something that rarely get to last beyond the 1st month/month & a half of the season. While it maybe something that persists as a whole for a season overall (& Charlotte may very well end up with a predominantly Under record this season), it's like there's an unwritten rule that a block of contrary results is required from teams after showing such an initial bias so bettors are at least given a reason to continue to believe the opposite side to a team's clearly telegraphed bias is worth betting, something which linesmakers obviously have a stake in influencing.
Here are some examples of such streaks and their counter-balancing results from the last couple of seasons. The nature of the total is irrelevant so I've simply noted the initial run of results and then the opposite counter-balancing sequence, with the obvious observation that the stiffer the initial run, the stiffer the nature of the subsquent counterbalancing "action" (these streaks from the last 2 seasons - based on opening lines - represent all of those initial instances of at least 10 games, where the unfavoured result represented no more than 27.0% of the initial total results, and where the turning of results didn't hinge on a significant change in a team's injury situation/s. The counterbalancing streak is the grouping number prior to the registering of the 2nd result in keeping with the biased nature of the 1st group, ie. in the first example 8-2 to Under was followed by 3-1 to Over before the 2nd Under result appeared since the turn of results) ....
Team started out - counterbalancing streak
8-2 -------------> 1-3
9-3 -------------> 1-3
10-1 ------------> 1-2*
10-3 -------------> 1-3
10-3 -------------> 1-3
10-3 -------------> 1-3
10-3 -------------> 1-5
16-6-1 -----------> 1-6
17-6 ------------> 1-3+
8-2 -------------> 1-3
9-3 -------------> 1-3
10-1 ------------> 1-2*
10-3 -------------> 1-3
10-3 -------------> 1-3
10-3 -------------> 1-3
10-3 -------------> 1-5
16-6-1 -----------> 1-6
17-6 ------------> 1-3+
* this run extended to 3-5 overall.
+ this run extended to 3-8 overall.
+ this run extended to 3-8 overall.
Some of these teams then went on to have a more balanced totals output, some reverted back to their prior heavy one-way bias, while others stayed with their new bias.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Charlotte's streak currently sits at U/O 13-3 (a streak obviously in excess of 10 games, and w/unfavoured result representing 20% of their total mark, therefore marking this as in keeping with the above stats) which is as stiff a bias as anything seen in recent times.
The first thing I've noted about their bias is that their winning is intimately aligned to their being most likely to produce an Over result...
beat MIA - 187 total - 194.0 line ...within 7 pts
beat NOR - 181 total - 186.0 line ...within 5 pts
beat UTH - 200 total - 181.0 line ...Over
beat PHI - 177 total - 181.0 line ...within 4 pts (176.5 closing line Over)
beat IND - 198 total - 188.0 line ...Over
...with only the Indy game on the road.
So it's seeing a schedule that has them playing next up Minny & Oklahoma at home & Milwaukee away as all very winnable games aligned with the fact their streak size is at that point where one could expect some sort of correction the other way sooner rather than later, as compared to those I noted above from the last 2 seasons, that I'm going to indulge in somewhat of a semi chase here: semi because even if an Over hits immediately I'll still be looking to play their subsequent Overs.
I'd have posted various Minny stats supporting the Wolves side of an Over play (which isn't looking great headed into the 4th, but all an Under result there does is keep the Cats lines down for their coming games), but of their other 2 coming opponents -
Oklahoma
Is 7-1 to Over on the road this season (avg 201.1 pts) as opposed to 6-4 to Under at home (avg 188.7 pts). That road average climbs to 205.5 pts vs Eastern teams (4-0 to Over).
Milwaukee
Started out 6-3-1 to Under (avg 185.8 pts) and has since gone 6-3 to Over (avg 193.4 pts). Incl. in those recent Under results is their 153 pt effort in CHA (their 14th straight game at a different venue to start the season), which serves this coming game's line imo re: an Over. CHA will be their 3rd straight home game on their 1st home stand this season that started 2 days ago.
Beyond these 2 opponents they have CLE at home and then a series of tougher road games where their old chestnut of taking a loss while running round like headless chickens comes into play. I can see these guys going O/U 3-4 minimum through their next 7 games. All of my experience says their current rate of 80%+ Unders is simply not going to continue, esp. given the amount of games they've already played.
Stage 1: Small bet on Over 184.5 CHA/MIN
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opcorn:
nice job boss
